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Yu Darvish 2017 Outlook


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Just now, ChicksDigTheOPS said:

general thoughts on Yu before the trade:

-he has the talent and pitch-repertoire to be a top-5 pitcher

-his inconsistency (blow ups) keep him around the 10-15 range. 

-he is cool AF

-he pitches in a bandbox where a moderate fly ball to right field is in the bleachers

-if he pitched more aggressively and less cerebrally, he'd be utterly dominant. Pitches too "cute" for a guy with a 95mph heater and devastating breaking stuff. 

 

general thoughts on Yu after the trade:

-he now pitches for a great team in a pitchers park where that same fly ball is an out

-he finds himself surrounded by other excellent pitchers, with a good pitching coach

-he gets to pitch to other pitchers, and rarely to Designated Hitters

-he may be fired up/energized by the trade and tap into that focus/dominance that he displayed at Yankee Stadium in the Tanaka duel

-IIRC, his home stadium is now the setting of his famous WBC emergence when the world collectively saw him and thought "Holy **** who is THAT guy!?"

-His overall stock gets a notable boost-- though nothing is set in stone. For all we know, the new pressure of a larger Japanese market might turn his insides into spaghetti and make him pitch like a poor man's Josh Osich. 

-gut feeling though, is he turns it on down the stretch and becomes a beloved LA athlete 

This thought remains the same after the trade as well no?

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23 minutes ago, Fiveohnine said:

I think the Japanese do tend to work their pitchers harder. I don't think Koreans do though. Tons of pitchers get hurt every year though.

My totally unsupported opinion is that it seems the same to me. I mean, I haven't heard of a bunch of pitchers in the japanese or korean leagues breaking down anymore than we do here. Obviously tons of pitchers go down in MLB every year and only a small fraction of those are Asian.

I guess my point is that there are so few of them that any time an Asian pitcher goes down it's very noticeable. But if Clayton Kershaw hits the DL, no one says wtf is up with white pitchers? since there are so many others. Similar for David Price or Chris Archer. Or Johnny Cueto.

In Japan they have different schedules than in the U.S.  Pitchers often have more time between starts.  They throw more pitches.  Not to mention the forkball/splitter, which has been a staple for Japanese pitchers coming over, has been a somewhat controversial pitch.  Here's an article giving both sides of the spectrum on the theory of it being bad, vs it being over blown:

 

https://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2014/3/5/5466414/do-splitters-ruin-arms

 

You will notice guys throwing it less and less. I could dig deeper into it later when I have some more time.  

Edited by Cmilne23
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ok. I realize this is overkill at this point. But I decided to take a look.

ESPN right now has 112 rosterable pitchers who are DL eligible. Of those, 2 are Asian. Hisashi Iwakuma (Japanese), and Wei-Yin Chen (Chinese/Taiwanese, w/e).

That breaks down to less than 1.8% of DL-eligible pitchers being Asian. I'm guessing that's about the same as their representation in MLB if not even less.

But like I said, a big part of it is sample size. If one or two more Asian pitchers hit the DL, that % can double. If one of those two injured guys comes back, it halves. If a random white/black/latino pitcher were to get hurt or come back, it doesn't affect the % nearly as much.

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They still have Maeda, Stewart, Wood listed for today, tomorrow, and Thursday.

So tomorrow for Stewart still seems like a good guess and if not that then Friday, which they don't have anyone listed for yet. 

Edited by Fiveohnine
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yea it had nothing to do with him being asian outside of how they (pitchers in asia/japan )  throw a sh*t load and have different schedules of when they pitch ect ... cmon on man

 

anyways i am expecting the move to NL to be huge like almost every sp moving from AL to NL 

i still dont think yu is an ace / elite :D see what i did there

Edited by colepenhagen
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1 hour ago, Fiveohnine said:

ok. I realize this is overkill at this point. But I decided to take a look.

ESPN right now has 112 rosterable pitchers who are DL eligible. Of those, 2 are Asian. Hisashi Iwakuma (Japanese), and Wei-Yin Chen (Chinese/Taiwanese, w/e).

That breaks down to less than 1.8% of DL-eligible pitchers being Asian. I'm guessing that's about the same as their representation in MLB if not even less.

But like I said, a big part of it is sample size. If one or two more Asian pitchers hit the DL, that % can double. If one of those two injured guys comes back, it halves. If a random white/black/latino pitcher were to get hurt or come back, it doesn't affect the % nearly as much.

it matters how many asain sp are in the mlb so if there is only a handful or more of asian SP in baseball and a good amount rarely break the 200 inn mark then there is something to it

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16 minutes ago, Cmilne23 said:

Is move to NL that much more beneficial? I see a lot of Rockies and D-Backs down the stretch.  

I went through schedule (wife is out of town and kids ain't home...yeah I'm a loser). If he goes every 5th start starting this Friday his schedule will play out like this:

 

@NYM

@ARI

CWS

@PIT

MIL

@SD

ARI

@SF

@WAS

SF

SD

 
Overall that looks pretty darn tasty. @ARI & @COL would be the 2 parks in that division you'd worry about, and he only has one such game. PIT, NYM, SD,SF all rank bottom 7 in park factors. And we all know Dodgers Stadium is huge (currently ranks 16th).  That's 9 out of 11 matchups that look to be at least plus matchups based on park. That doesn't even take into account a few of the awful offenses (and pitchers hitting) that he'll face. 
Of course this could change, but suffice it to say I'm extremely optimistic about his ROS outlook. 
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25 minutes ago, Backdoor Slider said:

I went through schedule (wife is out of town and kids ain't home...yeah I'm a loser). If he goes every 5th start starting this Friday his schedule will play out like this:

 

@NYM

@ARI

CWS

@PIT

MIL

@SD

ARI

@SF

@WAS

SF

SD

 
Overall that looks pretty darn tasty. @ARI & @COL would be the 2 parks in that division you'd worry about, and he only has one such game. PIT, NYM, SD,SF all rank bottom 7 in park factors. And we all know Dodgers Stadium is huge (currently ranks 16th).  That's 9 out of 11 matchups that look to be at least plus matchups based on park. That doesn't even take into account a few of the awful offenses (and pitchers hitting) that he'll face. 
Of course this could change, but suffice it to say I'm extremely optimistic about his ROS outlook. 

Most impressive thing I've seen all day.

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40 minutes ago, Backdoor Slider said:

I went through schedule (wife is out of town and kids ain't home...yeah I'm a loser). If he goes every 5th start starting this Friday his schedule will play out like this:

 

@NYM

@ARI

CWS

@PIT

MIL

@SD

ARI

@SF

@WAS

SF

SD

 
Overall that looks pretty darn tasty. @ARI & @COL would be the 2 parks in that division you'd worry about, and he only has one such game. PIT, NYM, SD,SF all rank bottom 7 in park factors. And we all know Dodgers Stadium is huge (currently ranks 16th).  That's 9 out of 11 matchups that look to be at least plus matchups based on park. That doesn't even take into account a few of the awful offenses (and pitchers hitting) that he'll face. 
Of course this could change, but suffice it to say I'm extremely optimistic about his ROS outlook. 

could see them going to 6 man rotation once kershaw gets back....they discussed it before he went on the dl.  but nice work....

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6 minutes ago, ASHLANDARROWS1992 said:

decent start tonight.....

 

what is that thing about a change of scenery ??

I'd go out on a limb and say the start was better than decent.. dare I say excellent.

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