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Yu Darvish 2017 Outlook


tucker26
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14 minutes ago, mysonx3 said:

That would actually be the second lowest K/9 of Darvish's career, and that would still put him between 251-268. If he tossed 220 innings he'd need a 12.27 K/9 to reach 300 - that's not too far-fetched.

Why are you projecting less innings for Kershaw than Darvish?

Your Kershaw projection gives him 257 on the low end and 287 on the high end

 
 

Because that's like...Far away from 300 man!

 

Lol, to be fair....We get the point but baseball isn't there yet. Almost....But not quite. 

Edited by tucker26
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220+ IP: 6 guys

215-219: 2 guys

200-214: 7 guys

190-199: 16 guys

 

Now, realistically I'm not going to expect all those guys under 220IP to suddenly get there... But I think we see more than 6 this year. Kershaw, Scherzer, Price, Verlander, Sale, Bumgarner, Porcello, Cueto, Kluber, Quintana are the 10 guys I think hit the 200 mark. After that I can see Lester, Archer, Hamels, Roark, and Arrieta getting close or doing it.

Out of that 220 group, here are there K/9 numbers from 2016 (with career K/9 in brackets), and Darvish is at the bottom:

Kershaw: 10.39 (9.81) - he hit 300Ks in 2015 with a K/9 of 11.64
Scherzer: 11.19 (9.98) - 284Ks in 2016
Price: 8.92 (8.61)  - 271Ks in 2014
Verlander: 10.04 (8.45) - 254Ks last year
Sale: 9.25 (10.09) - 274Ks in 208IP in 2015
Bumgarner: 9.97 (8.89) - 251Ks last year
Porcello: 7.63 (6.09) - 189Ks in 2016
Cueto: 8.11 (7.51) - 242Ks in 2014
Kluber: 9.50 (9.49) - 269 in 2014
Quintana: 7.83 (7.39) - 181 in 2016

Darvish: 11.84 (11.32) - 277Ks in 209IP in 2013

 

If anyone has a shot at 300Ks, it's Darvish, Kershaw and Scherzer. If Sale goes back to being a K-machine, I think he could do it as well. 300Ks isn't some magical "it's impossible" number... 

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1 hour ago, ChicksDigTheOPS said:

 

you never forget that gif. Incredible. totally explains why Yu has an all-time great strikeout rate

 

personally, I have to choose two of: Bogaerts in the 4th, Kluber in the 5th, and Darvish in the 12th. I feel a bit more comfortable with Kluber, but 7 rounds is a big difference. 

 

the strikeouts though. my my...

He is the strikeout pitcher in baseball right now. I'm very curious where Darvish would finish on Player Rater with a full healthy season. 

take the green monster, lose the pitchers, and it's not even close!

 

(jk. take yu...)

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19 hours ago, WahooManiac said:

The gif of Yu throwing six pitches from the same release point is still one of the greatest things ever.  Can't wait to see him healthy for a full season

This one?

Darvish_rkymubfn.gif

Here's a still from that GIF:lDbENZp.jpg

That's the curve that differentiates itself a bit early. But look how similar the rest look for so long.

Edited by mysonx3
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On 1/11/2017 at 2:40 PM, BlueJaysIn2030 said:

 

If anyone has a shot at 300Ks, it's Darvish, Kershaw and Scherzer. If Sale goes back to being a K-machine, I think he could do it as well. 300Ks isn't some magical "it's impossible" number... 

 

Heck, Scherzer had 284 last year.  He would have had to have struck out .5 more batters per start to hit 300.

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Darvish is the closest thing we have to a video game pitcher. He is incredible. 

His upside  is virtually unmatched, but I wouldn't want him  as my #1 due to health concerns (low floor). 

Still... if you can somehow manage to pair him with a very safe  Lester type... that's a helluva  1-2. 

And if you strongly prioritize early  hitting over early pitching, I totally get the logic of waiting on Darvish as your #1. Just  not my personal preference. 

Edited by ChicksDigTheOPS
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5 minutes ago, ChicksDigTheOPS said:

Darvish is the closest thing we have to a video game pitcher. He is incredible. 

His upside  is virtually unmatched, but I wouldn't want him  as my #1 due to health concerns (low floor). 

Still... if you can somehow manage to pair him with a very safe  Lester type... that's a helluva  1-2. 

And if you strongly prioritize early  hitting over early pitching, I totally get the logic of waiting on Darvish as your #1. Just  not my personal preference. 

 Darvish is #34 on Yahoo right now,  so you would have to take him in the third round. That means that he would for sure be your SP1 unless you take one of the top guys. Lester is #40, so you wouldn't get both pitchers (probably). Seems like #34 is pretty high for Darvish. 

Edited by Fuzzy_Slippers
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7 minutes ago, midlip said:

I'm in a slow draft where I have 43rd pick and Lester, Verlander, Darvish, and Cueto are all still on the board.... just some more insight into ADP 

 

That would be ideal. I would much rather take Darvish in the 4th than the 3rd. You could take Darvish + one of those other guys in back-to-back rounds and be off to a tremendous start. 

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44 minutes ago, midlip said:

Respectfully disagree... i dont like taking 2 elite SPs....rather go back to bats and take some tier 2 guys 

If going with that strategy (which isn't a bad strategy, though I'm not opposed to two elite SP if it works out that way), I would personally avoid Darvish as your SP1. If I'm only getting one stud SP I want super high floor. If I'm getting two, I don't mind one of them being risky (Strasburg, Darvish) if my other is rock-solid (Lester, for example).

If only opting for one stud and you go with Darvish, I'd go hard after a high-floor SP2 like Quintana just for stability

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5 hours ago, Fuzzy_Slippers said:

 Darvish is #34 on Yahoo right now,  so you would have to take him in the third round. That means that he would for sure be your SP1 unless you take one of the top guys. Lester is #40, so you wouldn't get both pitchers (probably). Seems like #34 is pretty high for Darvish. 

 

In all of the Yahoo mocks I've done, there's a 50/50 chance he lasts into the 4th round.

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On 2/18/2017 at 1:19 PM, Pitches Love Velocity said:

Sounds like a good indicator that the arm is fully healthy. 

 

Apparently this is something he was forbidden from throwing last year due to the extra stress that the pitch can cause on the elbow.

 

 

Good luck MLB hitters...

 

Great value for Yu this year, getting taken as the last ace off the board. He could have a top 3 pitching season, and is getting drafted as the 10th SP or later.

Edited by swfcdan
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