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Yu Darvish 2017 Outlook


tucker26
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13 minutes ago, ranger danger said:

What's up with the peripherals? 3.99+ FIP, xFIP, and SIERA.  His stats on the year look fine but why do all the underlying stats not like him this year?  He's not historically one of those guys who far outproduces his peripherals.

 

Because he's walking more batters, and striking out less batters at the same time. His low ERA and WHIP are abated by a high LOB% and low BABIP. 

 

When it comes to pitchers, opposing- lineup quality is VERY important factor. Maybe his peripherals will improve as he faces less potent offenses ? 

 

In 4 of his last 5 starts he's had the Tigers, BlueJays, and Astros (x2) ... all top 5/10 lineups

 

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SMH .. the abysmal schedule continues (projected next 4 starts as it is currently aligned):

 

Team | RoS Projected Lineup Rank

Seattle Mariners #13

@NY Yankees #3 :huh:

@Cleveland Indians #4 :blink:

Boston Red Sox #6 :ph34r:

 

Brutal stretch of the whose who of best lineups in baseball.

 

Edited by EmbargoLifted
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3 hours ago, EmbargoLifted said:

SMH .. the abysmal schedule continues (projected next 4 starts as it is currently aligned):

 

Team | RoS Projected Lineup Rank

Seattle Mariners #13

@NY Yankees #3 :huh:

@Cleveland Indians #4 :blink:

Boston Red Sox #6 :ph34r:

 

Brutal stretch of the whose who of best lineups in baseball.

 

Damn thanks for the heads up.  Have some decisions to make.

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Well, Mariner's #13 isn't very high to begin with. That's barely top half.

But I'm not sure I would agree with those rankings. Indians #4? Really? @NYY ok, that's not a good draw. Red Sox at home shouldn't strike much fear either. They've been dealing with injuries and really haven't been anything close to what they were last year.

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5 minutes ago, Fiveohnine said:

Well, Mariner's #13 isn't very high to begin with. That's barely top half.

But I'm not sure I would agree with those rankings. Indians #4? Really? @NYY ok, that's not a good draw. Red Sox at home shouldn't strike much fear either. They've been dealing with injuries and really haven't been anything close to what they were last year.

 

I'm using Fangraphs' depth charts projections and sorting by "runs scored per game" in the 'rest of season' column.

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=Standings

 

The projections are updated daily and account for injuries, transactions, etc.

 

Yankees, Indians, Red Sox are all in the top 6. Which is just brutal luck. 

 

Edited by EmbargoLifted
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7 minutes ago, EmbargoLifted said:

 

I'm using Fangraphs' depth charts projections and sorting by "runs scored per game" in the 'rest of season' column.

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=Standings

 

Well, there are a lot of different ways to look at it. I'm just glancing at results so far this season. Like team runs scored, triple slash, and well, hitters they have in the lineup.

But to me @NYY is the only one to really have any real hesitation about. WAS, HOU, @COL, even COL, @ARI, DET, a couple others should strike more fear than CLE. To name a few.

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1 minute ago, Fiveohnine said:

Well, there are a lot of different ways to look at it. I'm just glancing at results so far this season. Like team runs scored, triple slash, and well, hitters they have in the lineup.

But to me @NYY is the only one to really have any real hesitation about. WAS, HOU, @COL, even COL, @ARI, DET, a couple others should strike more fear than CLE. To name a few.

You are doing it wrong.

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33 minutes ago, borindia said:

Nice start so far.  Given his upcoming schedule, your season is pretty much done if he's your top ace.  

This logic makes zero sense to me. I keep seeing it all over these forums. If one player sinks your season then you didn't prepare or draft well. Or you didn't pay attention to trends. For instance, when Darvish showed he was going to be inconsistent you make moves to bolster the rest of your rotation. 

 

Believe I'm let down by his performance thus far as 4th round pick, but look around at pitching this year there are very few "Ace" sp. 

Edited by High&Inside
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1 hour ago, borindia said:

Nice start so far.  Given his upcoming schedule, your season is pretty much done if he's your top ace.  

 

Nope.  He's my ace and I'm 7-3 (hoping to be 8-3 by tomorrow).  Thanks though.

Edited by 89Topps
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At least things settled down a little bit after the first inning. Figured his two starts this week would each go the opposite of the way they did this week, still 1 good and 1 bad.

 

Want no part of the Yanks though, so he can warm the bench next week.

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I hate drafting aces because you expect them to dominate every time out for the cost you paid, and so can only be disappointed when they struggle never happy with them. I loved watching Darvish as a pitcher but hate owning him this year as I expect dominance every time out, but we aren't getting it. Really wish he'd get moved to a less homer friendly park, as all the longballs are really doing him in.

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Don't know what to thing about Yu...he's all over the place.  Does awesome at the 'stros and gets beat up by the Mariners.  I have to start him because he's my #2 SP but no matter who the opponent and where the game is I feel like each outcome is a coin flip.

 

Oh well...can't trade him so I've got to ride it out myself and hope for the best.

Edited by Damn Yankee
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3 minutes ago, Stallion said:

People are complaining about the #13 on the season? That's a borderline SP1 in most standard leagues. A clear SP1 in deeper leagues.

 

Well...the complaints are not overall, they tend to be focused on the latest result.  For example, I lost the ERA and WHIP categories last night due to his getting beat up by the Mariners yesterday...was heading for a pitching category sweep.  Now, in all fairness I was in that position because of the game he had Monday against the Astros.  So not really complaining...just stating that it's hard to nail down the expectations.  To me SP1 is where performances like last night are the exception.  I think you nailed it...borderline SP1.  I'm happy with him overall...just had over-set my expectations for yesterday that's all.

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