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Carter Capps 2017 Outlook


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Carter Capps had the highest perceived velocity in the league in 2015, at over 101 mph.

 

He also has a nice slider to pair with it. Put up an elite line in 2015 before injuring his arm, the spectre for TJS in spring 2016.

 

1.16 ERA, 0.81 WHIP, 16.84 k/9, 2.03 bb/9

 

Will be healthy, or close to it, entering 2017 as he'll be 13 months post TJS in April. IMO he is likely to settle in as padres closer at some point in 2017.

 

Queue, arguments about his delivery.

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45 minutes ago, fawkes_mulder said:

Carter Capps had the highest perceived velocity in the league in 2015, at over 101 mph.

 

He also has a nice slider to pair with it. Put up an elite line in 2015 before injuring his arm, the spectre for TJS in spring 2016.

 

1.16 ERA, 0.81 WHIP, 16.84 k/9, 2.03 bb/9

 

Will be healthy, or close to it, entering 2017 as he'll be 13 months post TJS in April. IMO he is likely to settle in as padres closer at some point in 2017.

 

Queue, arguments about his delivery.

I agree, not sure on the timetable, but for sure once healthy I think he gets that closer job.  Its one of those situations you have to read between the lines, when you trade for a guy on the shelf who had TJ, you know that organization thinks highly of him....OR maybe its just the Padres who often trade it injured parts.  

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I typically don't buy into pitchers after TJS for 18 months... 13 months is enough for me to believe it is possible for him to look good but I don't think it's highly likely. Upside's pretty big, but I can't take him over anyone that i'm fairly confident is getting saves. 

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1 minute ago, taobball said:

I typically don't buy into pitchers after TJS for 18 months... 13 months is enough for me to believe it is possible for him to look good but I don't think it's highly likely. Upside's pretty big, but I can't take him over anyone that i'm fairly confident is getting saves. 

Yeah we've talked about this some in the closer thread, I think Capps is super appealing in h2h leagues, because by the fantasy playoffs I'm confident that a) he'll be firing on all cylinders and b.) will have the closer job.

 

In a roto league, I think there's more of an opportunity cost.

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Just now, fawkes_mulder said:

@taobball Another possibility is that the Padres give him the closer job almost immediately, to showcase him. If he does well, then they trade him for profit at the deadline to a contender.

 

But that possibility most likely does not helphis value. 

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7 minutes ago, ST. STEVEN said:

Even Jordan Walden thinks his delivery is both absurd and illegal-

The MLB has ratified it, though.

 

So it doesn't really matter that it is controversial, for both IRL and fantasy purposes.

 

It does give him an advantage. Hitters have less time to react and his fastball and slider are both already ++.

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2 hours ago, fawkes_mulder said:

Put up an elite line in 2015

Understatement of the day.

I figure I'll give Capps a chance in late-rounds if he's healthy or I can spare the DL spot. Best case, he becomes an elite closer down the stretch. Worst case, I drop him and don't lose a ton. Medium case, he becomes Andrew Miller for way cheaper

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22 hours ago, fawkes_mulder said:

@taobball Another possibility is that the Padres give him the closer job almost immediately, to showcase him. If he does well, then they trade him for profit at the deadline to a contender.

Its been kind of a mixed report as to when exactly he will be ready to roll, I do not think it will be in the spring.  

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17 minutes ago, StevieStats said:

What does usage normally look like for relievers coming off TJ?

Not a ton of back to back outings at first.

 

First guy to come to mind is Adam Ottavino.

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/statsd.aspx?playerid=1247&position=P

 

http://www.denverpost.com/2015/05/07/rockies-pitcher-adam-ottavino-undergoes-tommy-john-surgery/

May 7, 2015 TJS

 

Returned to action July 5, 2016. 14 months. Ottavino was great, 2.67 ERA, 0.93 WHIP, 11.67 k/9

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5 hours ago, TheBoatmen said:

Has anybody heard if he is continuing with his delivery or going back to a conventional delivery?

Why would he (or any pitcher) make a dramatic alteration to their delivery when it works so well for them? That'd be stupid.

Has anybody heard if Brad Ziegler will stick with his delivery or switch to overhand?

Of course he's sticking with his delivery

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1 hour ago, fawkes_mulder said:

Not a ton of back to back outings at first.

 

First guy to come to mind is Adam Ottavino.

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/statsd.aspx?playerid=1247&position=P

 

http://www.denverpost.com/2015/05/07/rockies-pitcher-adam-ottavino-undergoes-tommy-john-surgery/

May 7, 2015 TJS

 

Returned to action July 5, 2016. 14 months. Ottavino was great, 2.67 ERA, 0.93 WHIP, 11.67 k/9

Osuna was another that came back from TJS and was immediately lights out as well.

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5 minutes ago, mysonx3 said:

Why would he (or any pitcher) make a dramatic alteration to their delivery when it works so well for them? That'd be stupid.

Has anybody heard if Brad Ziegler will stick with his delivery or switch to overhand?

Of course he's sticking with his delivery

As long as his delivery has nothing to do with his injury.  I know a lot of pitchers go through TJS so you can't blame his delivery on that but it surely puts extra strain all over his body.  I don't know if he can return after 13 months with that delivery.  He puts a lot more stress on his arm, legs, feet, calf's, shoulders, back, neck, pelvis, thighs, hair....forgot where I was going with this but you get the point.

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I gotta lot of push back about projecting Ottavino to be the closer by August last year because he wasnt far out from TJS.   Worked out fine for me but there can always be a setback of course.  The delivery likely makes Capps more of a risk but his numbers cant be argued with.

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  • 1 month later...
On 1/12/2017 at 9:22 PM, clintrad4 said:

I gotta lot of push back about projecting Ottavino to be the closer by August last year because he wasnt far out from TJS.   Worked out fine for me but there can always be a setback of course.  The delivery likely makes Capps more of a risk but his numbers cant be argued with.

 

Right but people are talking about Capps being ready in short order... Ottavino didn't pitch until July... I think a lot of people would consider that a huge disappointment from where tehy view Capps rn. 

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6 minutes ago, taobball said:

 

Right but people are talking about Capps being ready in short order... Ottavino didn't pitch until July... I think a lot of people would consider that a huge disappointment from where tehy view Capps rn. 

Not a fair 1 to 1 comparison. Ottavino's TJS happened on May 7, 2015. Carter Capps had his surgery on March 8, 2016.

 

If Capps had the EXACT same timeline as Ottavino, he would return May 6 (Ottavino returned July 5).

 

As it is, it looks like he will be ready for the season though.

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Just now, fawkes_mulder said:

Not a fair 1 to 1 comparison. Ottavino's TJS happened on May 7, 2015. Carter Capps had his surgery on March 8, 2016.

 

If Capps had the EXACT same timeline as Ottavino, he would return May 6 (Ottavino returned July 5).

 

As it is, it looks like he will be ready for the season though.

I'm not going to make any comment on what Capps will or won't do. My take on it is simply that the things I would want to see in ST I think will be the same everyone else wants to see and so I don't think he's going to be a huge value with a successful spring... if he has a healthy spring and he doesn't move up a ton I'm more than interested in investing but trying to project what the cost will be if it looks like Capps and his crazy Ks are gonna be the opening or near opening day closer, I think the risk for me and my general train of thought and love for other guys on discount like the aforementioned Ottavino will be too great for me to get Capps... actually I think that's perfect for me... right now Ottavino is going super late and no matter where the Capps situation is I'm taking Ottavino 1000x and I think if the Capps situation is good enough to warrant my interest, I'll be in the minority.

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7 minutes ago, taobball said:

I'm not going to make any comment on what Capps will or won't do. My take on it is simply that the things I would want to see in ST I think will be the same everyone else wants to see and so I don't think he's going to be a huge value with a successful spring... if he has a healthy spring and he doesn't move up a ton I'm more than interested in investing but trying to project what the cost will be if it looks like Capps and his crazy Ks are gonna be the opening or near opening day closer, I think the risk for me and my general train of thought and love for other guys on discount like the aforementioned Ottavino will be too great for me to get Capps... actually I think that's perfect for me... right now Ottavino is going super late and no matter where the Capps situation is I'm taking Ottavino 1000x and I think if the Capps situation is good enough to warrant my interest, I'll be in the minority.

You're moving the fences from your initial post, where you were implying he might be out until July (like Ottavino). Just wanted to point out that Capps has a 2 month head start on Ottavino in his recovery.

 

I have no idea what his ADP data will look like. I do know that the Holland signing dimmed my flame for Ottavino some, though. That contract is incentive laden towards him gaining the closer role.

 

FWIW, I think Ottavino is probably better than Holland at this point, although my mind could easily change depending on how both of them look in spring training.

 

Nevertheless, I absolutely hate saves leagues. With SVHD, you care about the quality of the pitcher more than the role. And in 2015, Carter Capps was literally one of the very best pitchers in baseball when he pitched.

Edited by fawkes_mulder
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