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Carter Capps 2017 Outlook


fawkes_mulder
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5 minutes ago, fawkes_mulder said:

You're moving the fences from your initial post, where you were implying he might be out until July (like Ottavino). Just wanted to point out that Capps has a 2 month head start on Ottavino in his recovery.

 

I have no idea what his ADP data will look like. I do know that the Holland signing dimmed my flame for Ottavino some, though. That contract is incentive laden towards him gaining the closer role.

 

FWIW, I think Ottavino is better than Holland, and I absolutely hate saves leagues. With SVHD, you care about the quality of the pitcher more than the role. And in 2015, Carter Capps was literally one of the very best pitchers in baseball when he pitched.

 

Im not moving the fences lol just didn't mean for it to be a one to one exactly equivalent comparison. The user was talking about how he got slack for saying Ottavino would be the closer in august, I'm mostly saying the difference here is that people are saying he'll be the closer in April and that's a different evaluation entirely. Ottavino I loved as a stash. No one was gonna pay the prices they'd pay for Capps because he was going to return later. The price on Capps is incredibly different which is why I think the backlash is warranted even juxtaposed with Ottavino.

 

you wanna worry more about Holland than Capps' elbow be my guest. They're not in the same ballpark for me. Color me unconcerned with Holland.

 

and if anything, 3 mil in incentives unrelated to closing make me think he has fair incentives even in a set up role.. last report i saw from the beat reporters called Ottavino the clear favorite for the job... again color me just completely unconcerned with Holland

Edited by taobball
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Just now, fawkes_mulder said:

BTW, right now Ottavino has an ADP of 188.4 in yahoo leagues and Capps has an ADP of 253.2.

 

Will be interested to see how it changes. As it is though, Capps is still inexpensive.

 

Right but I said after expected rise... I don't think Ottavino moves too much and I think he's a steal there... if I'm getting Capps in the 20th fine, we're talking about investments tho

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Just now, taobball said:

 

Right but I said after expected rise... I don't think Ottavino moves too much and I think he's a steal there... if I'm getting Capps in the 20th fine, we're talking about investments tho

Both of them will move up a ton if there's any clarity given on their respective relief roles, i.e. as closer. Both of them will be relative discounts if it is hazy.

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1 minute ago, fawkes_mulder said:

Both of them will move up a ton if there's any clarity given on their respective relief roles, i.e. as closer. Both of them will be relative discounts if it is hazy.

 

I really don't think Ottavino in Coors and with Holland there will move up a ton. We're projecting ADP which is hard to do but right now he's considered the clear favorite... I don't think people like Colorado closers, Ottavino is far from established and doesn't throw 100. I think you're overestimating the variance. He's not going to stop pitching in Coors. McGee didn't go too much higher than that and he was brought in to close

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5 minutes ago, taobball said:

 

I really don't think Ottavino in Coors and with Holland there will move up a ton. We're projecting ADP which is hard to do but right now he's considered the clear favorite... I don't think people like Colorado closers, Ottavino is far from established and doesn't throw 100. I think you're overestimating the variance. He's not going to stop pitching in Coors. McGee didn't go too much higher than that and he was brought in to close

Ottavino's a lot better than McGee, though.

 

I do think people might overestimate the Coors factor, but then you also have the Padres factor. Bad teams still get saves obviously, but good teams are sexier closer opportunity hotbeds, which I think will get baked into the cost. Who knows.

 

(FWIW, the r2 on wins vs. saves isn't strong, only .183 or so. link But I still think people are gonna think of the Padres as a bad team for saves).

Edited by fawkes_mulder
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1 minute ago, fawkes_mulder said:

Ottavino's a lot better than McGee, though.

 

I do think people might overestimate the Coors factor, but then you also have the Padres factor. Bad teams still get saves obviously, but good teams are sexier closer opportunity hotbeds, which I think will get baked into the cost. Who knows.

 

I agree who knows, but I think it's really hindsight to pretend McGee was worse when he had a 11.5 ish K/9 a 2 to sub 2 BB/9 a low HR rate and an ERA around two between 2014-2015... I think McGee was vastly higher thought of then Ottavino 

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1 minute ago, taobball said:

 

I agree who knows, but I think it's really hindsight to pretend McGee was worse when he had a 11.5 ish K/9 a 2 to sub 2 BB/9 a low HR rate and an ERA around two between 2014-2015... I think McGee was vastly higher thought of then Ottavino 

Ottavino put up his elite stats in Colorado though! McGee did not.

 

I know I personally was expecting some regression from McGee and wasn't targeting him. With Ottavino though, I have some assurance that he's been able to flourish in a bad environment already.

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Just now, fawkes_mulder said:

Ottavino put up his elite stats in Colorado though! McGee did not.

 

I get what you're saying and I'm not getting into an argument about who is better, but I think it's hindsight to pretend that the market didn't think McGee was a great relief pitcher this time last year... and I do understand the padres argument and we're projecting ADP but I think you're vastly underselling the sex appeal of a guy throwing 100 and having a 15ish K/9 if he were to be just the "clear favorite" which is what Ottavino is

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9 minutes ago, taobball said:

 

I get what you're saying and I'm not getting into an argument about who is better, but I think it's hindsight to pretend that the market didn't think McGee was a great relief pitcher this time last year... and I do understand the padres argument and we're projecting ADP but I think you're vastly underselling the sex appeal of a guy throwing 100 and having a 15ish K/9 if he were to be just the "clear favorite" which is what Ottavino is

Yeah maybe you're right about his appeal, but I guess that's been my point all along, his appeal is outrageous. If he pitched like he did in 2015 over a full season, he's the best relief pitcher in the game. And it's easy to see why, because he's throwing 100 + that ridiculous extension = feels like 103, plus he has a wipeout secondary pitch.

 

If in spring training Capps is putting up elite stats and showing good command/control, then the market would be stupid IMO if they don't react to it. OTOH, there's always gonna be people that a) fundamentally dislike him for his delivery, b ) say lol padres, or c) believe he is a ticking time bomb injury risk, so I honestly STILL don't think the price will be unreasonable.

 

Ottavino is a safer pick right now, can't argue that, but Capps' upside is insane (even reasonably regressing his 2015 stats!).

 

Point taken that the earlier the draft, the more likely to profit on Capps.

Edited by fawkes_mulder
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45 minutes ago, fawkes_mulder said:

Yeah maybe you're right about his appeal, but I guess that's been my point all along, his appeal is outrageous. If he pitched like he did in 2015 over a full season, he's the best relief pitcher in the game. And it's easy to see why, because he's throwing 100 + that ridiculous extension = feels like 103, plus he has a wipeout secondary pitch.

 

If in spring training Capps is putting up elite stats and showing good command/control, then the market would be stupid IMO if they don't react to it. OTOH, there's always gonna be people that a) fundamentally dislike him for his delivery, b ) say lol padres, or c) believe he is a ticking time bomb injury risk, so I honestly STILL don't think the price will be unreasonable.

 

Ottavino is a safer pick right now, can't argue that, but Capps' upside is insane (even reasonably regressing his 2015 stats!).

 

Point taken that the earlier the draft, the more likely to profit on Capps.

 

 

 

Yeah no no I think we see the same coin from different signs. You really like the upside and k potential as a buying point. I think too many people will agree with you and ruin the risk/opportunity/cost equation for me personally. Maybe I'm overrating our separation though so I decided to do some hypotheticals:

 

Given Carter Capps is at least a favorite to win the job:

 

Capps v.

Ottavino

Lorenzen or Iglesias if one is named closer

Dyson

Kelley or Treinen if one is named closer

Feliz if he's named closer

Ziegler or Ramos if one of them is closer

Jim Johnson

in an alternate world that Gomez leaves to play water polo and Benoit is named closer

 

Or would Capps looking healthy but 

Maurer getting the role change any of these and in that scenario would you take maurer

 

 

 

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4 minutes ago, mpbaseball22 said:

Delivery made illegal by MLB. Not sure if he's grandfathered in or not

 

Carter Capps Rule: "A pitcher may not take a second step toward home plate with either foot or otherwise reset his pivot foot in delivery."

17038558_10155112669797451_8086246278497

 

Here's everything in full. Carter Capps rule is the sixth bullet.

 

As a Capps owner this is disappointing but expected. We basically have no idea what he is now that he has to use a conventional delivery.

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Re-reading the rule I think Capps still might be fine. The rule allows for one step towards the plate so his original giant hopstep I think is OK but his new new delivery he was working on in Spring Training is banned.

 

 

Hope we get clearer clarification soon.

 

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5 minutes ago, kidtwentytwo said:

Guy throws 100mph.  With MLB's obsession to make silly rules to speed up the game, you'd think they'd leave Capps alone 

 

 

That rule has nothing to do with speeding up the game.  It's sole purpose is to make the crow hop illegal.

 

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30 minutes ago, kidtwentytwo said:

Guy throws 100mph.  With MLB's obsession to make silly rules to speed up the game, you'd think they'd leave Capps alone 

I'm not sure I see the connection between the MLB obsessing about speeding up the game (I agree) and them making a legitimate rule to stop pitchers from hopping closer to the batter before throwing. 

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