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Danny Duffy 2017 Outlook


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Danny Duffy 2016:

12-3, 179.2 IP, 3.51 ERA, 1.141 WHIP, 188 SO, 9.4 SO9

 

He started the year in the bulpen before moving into the starting rotation in mid-May... he pitched really well as a starter before fading in the final month.

 

In his first 19 starts he had a 2.61 ERA, 0.978 WHIP, and 9.4 SO9... dominant. However, it fell apart in his final 7 starts.

 

In addition to some increased velocity before wearing down he also had a much more effective slider. His swinging strikes jumped to a career high 12.9% after sitting at 7.3% and 8.4% the previous 2 seasons.

 

He was also more aggressive, throwing 62% first pitch strikes after sitting at 59% and 57% the previous 2 years.

 

Z-Contact plummeted to 81% after decreasing for the third year from 88% and 85%. His O-Contact fell too... his overall Contact % plummeted from 84%, to 82%, to last year's 75%... 

 

Duffy was different when he returned to the rotation. More velocity, better slider, more agressive, and missed a ton more bats. Watching him he was just more in command of the game. It's possible he finally got over the mental hurdle of multiple TJ... I watched a few of his games and couldn't believe it was him.

 

Now I still have plenty of reservations such as can he really keep up the velocity over a full year with preparing as a starter in the offseason... his FIP and xFIP over that 19 start span were 3.34 and 3.79 so a little high, his GB% was only 33%...

 

But the thing that really stands out to me is Danny Duffy started pitching more aggressive and missing bats. With a full offseason to hone and prepare I like his upside.

 

I like Danny Duffy in the low SP3 range with upside for 2017.

Edited by StevieStats
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He's always had so much promise, glad he got another crack at starting and really turned the corner. For whatever reason it can often take lefties a little more time to iron everything out. It obviously greatly varies depending on league size, but he's certainly around the top 25 for sp's for me...with upside that could take him near the top 10.

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Copy/pasting my comment from the mock thread, cause nobody else is really paying attention to it.

 

Hard to trust a man named Duffy, that's a 20 grade name.

 

Could flame out like Tyler Duffey.

 

Half-kidding. I don't see any chance of SP1, though. He's a late blooming innings eater. The jump in strikeouts does make him interesting, though.

 

One thing with Duffy, he fatigued as the year went on. His average fastball dropped a full 2 mph from the start of the season to finish. He was throwing harder than ever before though, so it was mainly a regression to what he is.

 

Still, look at the 1st and 2nd half ERA splits. 3.09 vs. 3.86. I think the latter half is what he really is, true talent.

 

K rate also dropped. 10.36 k/9 vs. 8.63 k/9 2nd half. Again, the second half aligns with more of what I expect out of him.

 

Basically, he was pitching well beyond anything that I think is his true talent in the first half of 2016, leaving a rosy full season line, but not something I think he is likely to repeat.

 

Edit: lmao, he started the year as a reliever. That explains the 1st and 2nd half splits and velo jump.

 

Yeah, the 1st half stats are completely useless

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14 team league, avg team will have 7 starters.  So he probably will be someones P2 or P3, wont be mine.  Would be more comfortable with 3 guys I have ranked ahead of him and see him in the P4 range.  

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  • 1 month later...

here is what I see from ESPN and pitcherlist.

 

ESPN..

Quote

2017 Outlook: In retrospect, it's difficult to fathom how Duffy failed to crack the Royals' 2016 Opening Day rotation. Thanks to greater reliance upon his sinker, as well as elite fastball velocity that remarkably carried over into his return to the rotation, Duffy put forth a beneath-the-radar run at the American League's Cy Young award, finishing as the No. 24 starting pitcher on the Player Rater and 19th at the position in standard-league points. That delay in his ascension to the Royals' rotation might have been a boon; it assured a gradual, year-over-year ramping up of his annual workload, easing worry that he'll be prepared for a full-time starter's role in 2017. Duffy is due for some regression, especially if he can't replicate his 94.7 mph average fastball velocity, but a potential increase in volume (starts, innings) gives him great odds at similar fantasy value (or perhaps more).

 

pitcherlist..

Quote

This ranking really shouldn’t surprise anyone who has been following me through August. Well, maybe it should since I thought of putting Duffy around #30, BUT HERE WE ARE AT #24. This tier is weird. Anyway, Duffy was glorious in 2016 and I think a lot of people are going to be running to get him as their #2 this season, but I’m super cautious for three reasons: 1) His lack of workload across six seasons that is partially a product of his dramatic injury history, 2) His hard contact rate as a starter was a staggering 37.9% but just a .286 BABIP 3) His success as a starter hinged greatly on maintaining elite velocity that he had as a reliever – velocity that started to decline in August/September that I imagine won’t be the same through all of 2017. If that heater is still stellar, good times are awaiting. But if its velocity diminishes, I expect his walks to return as he loses confidence in his stuff, and you have yourself a guy you’re wondering if you can drop by the end of May.

 

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1 minute ago, SpecialFNK said:

here is what I see from ESPN and pitcherlist.

 

ESPN..

 

pitcherlist..

 

 

Could not agree more with these. It's why my first rankings had Duffy higher than my second set. I'm definitely concerned about what his true talent rotation velocity is as opposed to what he carried over for a short time out of the pen. Could be that he goes back up but the whiffs% dropped pretty substantially when he was at 94-95 as opposed to 96+

 

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1 hour ago, SpecialFNK said:

here is what I see from ESPN and pitcherlist.

 

ESPN..

 

pitcherlist..

 

 

I don't understand why they didn't shut him down in late August.  You had a pitcher with a long history of injuries that finally broke out that was clearly gassed going down the stretch.  The moment his velocity dropped they should have shut him down.

 

And don't get me started about allowing that same guy to pitch in the WBC.

 

FWIW, as someone that had been following Duffy since he was in the minors I thought his first half performance was actually an indicator of his true talent level.  Go back and look at his minor league scouting reports.  But his usage late last season and now entering this season is a huge red flag.

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  • 3 weeks later...
7 minutes ago, midlip said:

Are people really thinking SP3 or later? Pitcherlist has him #22 and would be a SP2 on my team :huh:

Yeah I don't see him falling too far in most leagues 

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I'm glad someone else is keeping him in my league because I don't know when I would grab him. I'm a fan but I've had some doubts creeping in thanks to this thread. But, it no mattah to me.

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14 hours ago, midlip said:

Anyone know if his velocity is up during the WBC?

Just saw the game where he went against the WORLDBEATERS of DR and had some odd things (errors, passballs, etc.) but handled his own and seemed to get better after a couple of tough innings.

 

I'm buying.  He's a SP2 IMO

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1 hour ago, 2ndCitySox said:

I'm glad someone else is keeping him in my league because I don't know when I would grab him. I'm a fan but I've had some doubts creeping in thanks to this thread. But, it no mattah to me.

damn same with me dude. lol

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1 hour ago, midlip said:

Just saw the game where he went against the WORLDBEATERS of DR and had some odd things (errors, passballs, etc.) but handled his own and seemed to get better after a couple of tough innings.

 

I'm buying.  He's a SP2 IMO

 

7 minutes ago, mavsfan23 said:

Got very little help from his defense early, but once they pulled their heads out, he started pitching pretty well. As noted above, against the equivalent of an extremely good MLB lineup.

Oh God, now i wanna buy buy buy

 

so confused

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16 hours ago, midlip said:

Are people really thinking SP3 or later? Pitcherlist has him #22 and would be a SP2 on my team :huh:

I love Duffy, but definitely would not be happy with my rotation if I drafted him as my #2.

This is only likely to happen in keeper leagues ( because i expect him to go off the board in the SP#25-28ish range) but id much prefer to have him as like my SP4 with the hope he pitches like a #2 over the full season

Edited by cs3
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6 minutes ago, cs3 said:

I love Duffy, but definitely would not be happy with my rotation if I drafted him as my #2.

This is only likely to happen in keeper leagues ( because i expect him to go off the board in the SP#25-28ish range) but id much prefer to have him as like my SP4 with the hope he pitches like a #2 over the full season

you will never get him as an SP4 unless you do something like Kershaw, verlander, carlos martinez, duffy

 

and i think that leaves your offense very weak

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Agree wtih jfazz.... pegging him as a SP4 means you don't get him, and that's fine. 

 

I went hitting heavy and going him #102 as a SP2 and fully expect him to pitch to that level

 

200k's with a mid 3's ERA and a boatload of quality starts.  Yes please

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1 hour ago, kidtwentytwo said:

Have you guys looked at the dearth of pitching lately?  Two more exited with injuries today.  SP2 isn't what it use to be 

Yeah the line between a low end SP2, a SP3 and a high end SP4 is very fuzzy

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I want to love this guy, but his last season 2nd half scares the sh*t out of me.

Someone please convince me I should not be concerned.

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