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Danny Duffy 2017 Outlook


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No control at all tonight.  Combined with the decline in velo, this just isn't a guy who can be trusted right now.  I'm sure my fellow dynasty/keeper owners are lamenting all of the trade offers for Duffy they turned down in the last year.

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Just now, tonycpsu said:

No control at all tonight.  Combined with the decline in velo, this just isn't a guy who can be trusted right now.  I'm sure my fellow dynasty/keeper owners are lamenting all of the trade offers for Duffy they turned down in the last year.

I just don't see it getting any better from here on out. At this point he's a sunk cost. Really think he'll end up close to 4 era with a much lower than expected k rate. And I'm an owner. 

 

Not only is the velo a problem. But he can't really throw that change up for a strike consistently, so no ones chasing when it's out of the strike zone.

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Not looking good at all. Fastball hovering around 91-93. No control at all. Best pitch is the changeup tonight but not saying much. I paid for the guy that throws 96-98 and k's well over 9. That Duffy looks long gone. He's a Jag

Edited by bigbluecrew56
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Its a shame, I tried trading him when he had that sparkling era 2 starts ago along with Rich Hill for Sano and was o so close 2 pulling it off.. Anyway it was rejected and than 4 other trades were rejected with other owners.. I guess there was no secret that the regression was coming..

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Ewwww.. Well I guess the whole set and forget argument has been lost already. He's now a bench arm until he shows any ability to pitch at all. What a disaster.

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In all fairness the CWS are hitting like .280 against lefties. His two terrible starts have been against them. You don't really expect a pitcher to do better in back to back starts against the same team anyway. 

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17 minutes ago, evillaw4eva said:

In all fairness the CWS are hitting like .280 against lefties. His two terrible starts have been against them. You don't really expect a pitcher to do better in back to back starts against the same team anyway. 

this is extremely relevant information.. i was not aware.

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6 minutes ago, tonycpsu said:

 

Based on what track record?

Based on not panicking over 2 bad starts playing the same team twice who've been hot especially against lefties. It's not rocket science. 

Edited by ZChronicNebula
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1 minute ago, ZChronicNebula said:

Based on not panicking over 2 bad starts playing the same team twice who've been hot especially against lefties. 

 

It's a fair point, but the decline in velo and the lack of control have nothing to do with the opponent.  He looks like a different guy out there this season.

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5 minutes ago, tonycpsu said:

 

It's a fair point, but the decline in velo and the lack of control have nothing to do with the opponent.  He looks like a different guy out there this season.

good news: after ~250 PA in 2017 the white sox are 4th best team against LHP with a wRC+ of 125. definitely allows room for optimism going forward.

bad news: it appears that duffy has lost about 1 mph on his fastball this year, according to brooks. it looks like on roughly 5/21 of last season he was stretched out and went from the pen to the rotation, and while he had good results (3.63/4.03/3.87), he was losing velocity on his fastball all season long. his last game of the season had his lowest avg fastball velocity at 93.96 mph. the same thing happened at the end of 2015 when they began using him out of the pen. his fastball velocity increased by a tick or two and his results increased. 

2015 - began as a starter with "baseline velocity" and mediocre results, moved to pen and velocity increased along with much better results (small sample size, though)

2016 - began as reliever with increased velocity and very good results, moved to rotation and good results continued, but velocity declined all season long, trending back toward "baseline"

2017 - began as starter with velocity similar to 2015 "baseline", results are TBD

 

i'm holding for now, but... i'm skeptical with the slight loss of velocity that his results will end up more like his career numbers than his 2016 breakout numbers.

career numbers as starter:  620 IP -   3.76/4.20/4.43      19.9 K%, 8.9BB%

career numbers as reliever:    34.2 IP -    2.08/2.02/2.95     31.2 K%, 7.1BB%

 

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2 hours ago, evillaw4eva said:

In all fairness the CWS are hitting like .280 against lefties. His two terrible starts have been against them. You don't really expect a pitcher to do better in back to back starts against the same team anyway. 

I was not expecting Duffy to get whupped by the White Sox 2x in a row. Expected the Royals to win a low scoring game today. I plan on sitting him rest of season against White Sox.

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Can't put all the blame on "White sox hit lefties well" 

 

did anyone actually see the start?  He couldn't control anything, FB topped at 91, threw 650 pitches each innings, and generally looked overmatched

 

I was one of the ones touting his SP2 status.....  I am quite worried 

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15 minutes ago, midlip said:

FB topped at 91

 

He was in fact struggling to hit 91 late in the game, but he was sitting 94-95 early on.

 

Seeing that kind of velo decline during the game is very concerning, but he does have it earlier in games, so it's not like he's turned into Jared Weaver this year.  It just shows that he can't sustain the velo that made him effective last year, and that he might have to develop into a different kind of pitcher if he's going to be anything more than a streamer in mixed leagues.  It also makes one wonder if he's not maxing out his effort to the point where he could get hurt.  I'd much rather see his velo chart stay flat during starts, even if it meant he isn't firing 95 out of the gate. 

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Any of you owners dropping or you going to give him more leash ?

 

Not any sure fire studs in my agents but bunch of options pitching better than Duffy. 

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