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Danny Duffy 2017 Outlook


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3 hours ago, tonycpsu said:

 

He was in fact struggling to hit 91 late in the game, but he was sitting 94-95 early on.

 

Seeing that kind of velo decline during the game is very concerning, but he does have it earlier in games, so it's not like he's turned into Jared Weaver this year.  It just shows that he can't sustain the velo that made him effective last year, and that he might have to develop into a different kind of pitcher if he's going to be anything more than a streamer in mixed leagues.  It also makes one wonder if he's not maxing out his effort to the point where he could get hurt.  I'd much rather see his velo chart stay flat during starts, even if it meant he isn't firing 95 out of the gate. 

but he doesn't have it.. his best this year is still significantly slower than last year.

max velocity march and april of 2016 was 97.5 and 98.9, respectively. this year in the same months 95.6 and 96.3. 

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Even if he does turn it around to a certain degree. Good luck getting any type of run support out of that putrid Royals offense. Bullpen also very shaky. As i mentioned in an earlier post. He's a streamer JAG type until he's able to find 96-98 again. You can live with the low win total if he's pumping in an elite K rate. He's just not there 

Edited by bigbluecrew56
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6 minutes ago, osb_tensor said:

max velocity march and april of 2016 was 97.5 and 98.9, respectively. this year in the same months 95.6 and 96.3. 

 

I'm more interested in average velo than max velo, but I'll accept your argument at face value, in that he doesn't have last year's "bullpen arm transitioning into a starter" velo.  Still, that's the kind of drop-off I expected and priced into his value as a dynasty owner, and that anyone in redraft should have priced in as well (I think he was going way too early in drafts this year.)

 

What I didn't expect was that scary chart that shows he can't even sustain his first inning velo.  It looks like this wasn't as much of a problem in his last outing against the Sox, but it was against the Rangers before that, so... I dunno.  Something to keep an eye on, I guess.

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3 hours ago, tonycpsu said:

 

I'm more interested in average velo than max velo, but I'll accept your argument at face value, in that he doesn't have last year's "bullpen arm transitioning into a starter" velo.  Still, that's the kind of drop-off I expected and priced into his value as a dynasty owner, and that anyone in redraft should have priced in as well (I think he was going way too early in drafts this year.)

 

What I didn't expect was that scary chart that shows he can't even sustain his first inning velo.  It looks like this wasn't as much of a problem in his last outing against the Sox, but it was against the Rangers before that, so... I dunno.  Something to keep an eye on, I guess.

average velocity

2016 march 95.7, april 96.8

2017 march 93.4, april 93.5

edit: these aren't apples to apples comparisons, he was a reliever in march/april of 2016 and a starter in 2017. so yeah.. take it for what it's worth.

 

the question is, why would you think that with a drop in velocity he would be a different pitcher than he had been in the past? he had roughly 500 innings under his belt prior to last season as a starter and was whole-hardheartedly mediocre in those innnings. if you expected the drop off in velocity, and you factored that into your drafting of him, surely you had to consider that he could turn back into a frog, right?

i'm not trying to pick on you personally, but more of an overall question to those who didn't expect the regression. what changes aside from velocity made someone think he would have better results? looking at pitch f/x it appears they're claiming he's using his slider way more this year than previously, but that couldn't have been factored into most drafts, since he didn't use it last season. his pitch mix last year was almost identical to previous seasons, only with increased velocity. it stands to reason when the velocity disappeared, so would the results.

i think @bigbluecrew56 nailed it.. without the velocity, he's WW fodder.

Edited by osb_tensor
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57 minutes ago, osb_tensor said:

why would you think that with a drop in velocity he would be a different pitcher than he had been in the past?

 

I didn't think that at all.  I kept him because it's a dynasty league and everyone else in my league had the same concerns I did.  Like I said, I didn't get him in any redraft leagues because I thought the draft price was too high.  I'm not sure which part of which of my several comments I've made in this thread got you thinking I'm really high on Duffy, but rest assured I'm very concerned about the velo drop.  What I did say is that if he's to be successful again, he'll have to figure out a way to do it without the plus-plus velocity.  Stranger things have happened.

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2 hours ago, High&Inside said:

Not sure who would want to invest in a guy who has given up 19H and 12 ER in his last 9 2/3 innings

Like I said earlier. It was against the same team and that team so happens to mashes lefties. Use some context. It's worth monitoring, but you can't jump ship yet. 

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1 minute ago, evillaw4eva said:

Like I said earlier. It was against the same team and that team so happens to mashes lefties. Use some context. It's worth monitoring, but you can't jump ship yet. 

I haven't jumped ship. In a year where pitching is how it is, you need to hold anyone with upside. SP are dropping like flies with either injury or poor play.

 

Just saying those trying to shop him won't have much luck. There's nothing right now that says buy to another team looking for pitching.

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On 5/3/2017 at 4:35 PM, tonycpsu said:

 

I didn't think that at all.  I kept him because it's a dynasty league and everyone else in my league had the same concerns I did.  Like I said, I didn't get him in any redraft leagues because I thought the draft price was too high.  I'm not sure which part of which of my several comments I've made in this thread got you thinking I'm really high on Duffy, but rest assured I'm very concerned about the velo drop.  What I did say is that if he's to be successful again, he'll have to figure out a way to do it without the plus-plus velocity.  Stranger things have happened.

you are correct, i didn't mean to direct my entire thought process toward you.. it was meant for the majority of folks in this thread that are expecting results similiar to last season. 

to your point, i don't think he can produce those results without the velocity. with as many innings as he's started, without a significant change he is who he is. just my opinion though, and i hope i'm proven wrong.

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45 minutes ago, tonycpsu said:

Yeah, Sarris said in his chat today that he'd be selling Duffy.  I'm just not sure what you get for him in mixed leagues at this point.

That's like telling someone "hey, your house is on fire. You should get out of there. But hey on your way out invite some neighbors in."

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18 minutes ago, BlueJaysIn2030 said:

If I hate my neighbours then it's not a bad strategy!

My neighbor has only lived across from me for a few months and backed into my car a few weeks ago, I'd happily invite him in. Lock the door too. 

Edited by StevieStats
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Easy sit unless you're desperate in a H2H format or something.  Just doesn't look right, hasn't had the velo.  Needs to show me 1-2 good outings before I can trust him against this kind of opponent.

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Think his problem was playing the hot hitting White Sox twice. Certain pitchers tend to struggle against certain teams.

 

To put things in perspective Cleveland has been cold lately scoring 10 runs in 5 games so far this month. Averaging 2 runs a game is not exactly dominating the opposition.

 

I expect him to give up 3 runs today in 6 innings and lose a close game.

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I would LOVE to see his velo jump.I'd honestly be just fine if he gave up 4 runs but was in the 93-96 range today. Some guys just have trouble pitching without a certain velo. I do find it interesting that his swinging strike and contact rates are the same as last year, and hard hit rate is even lower than last year. His fastball though, which has been positively graded five years running, is currently checking in as the 25th worst in baseball. Very early, obviously SSS, but it seems like he's had trouble adjusting to the velo decline. 

 

As far as today, I have minimal confidence and do NOT consider the Indians a plus match-up whatsover, buttt they do have the 5th lowest OPS vs lefties in baseball (tough to K though, sub-20% k-rate). 

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