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Miguel Sano 2017 Outlook


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Just now, bradwatson said:

Thread is confusing to me. What are people expecting from this guy? He has prodigious power but strikes out a ton. He's never going to win a batting title, but he might bat .250 with 40 bombs. Take the bad with the good, and this year it's been mostly good.

 

If your drafted him in a format that penalizes K's then that's on you.

 

The K% and lack of adjustments in that area from one year to the next is a key piece of information in projecting what he might do ROS, IMO. Which is why I brought it up. What else are these threads for if not for that? 

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1 minute ago, absknicks said:

 

The K% and lack of adjustments in that area from one year to the next is a key piece of information in projecting what he might do ROS, IMO. Which is why I brought it up. What else are these threads for if not for that? 

I wasn't thinking of you or any poster in particular... Just looking at the prior posts and saying this is who he is. He's going to strike out a ton and hit a lot of homers. Those expecting Miguel Cabrera should have known better. Best case scenario is Chris or Khris Davis.

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On 5/29/2017 at 6:46 PM, bradwatson said:

I wasn't thinking of you or any poster in particular... Just looking at the prior posts and saying this is who he is. He's going to strike out a ton and hit a lot of homers. Those expecting Miguel Cabrera should have known better. Best case scenario is Chris or Khris Davis.

Funny comparison. He just smoked one against me in my matchup after I traded him away a couple weeks ago, so I popped in here to see the response. I took a very similar stance on him in the preseason(reference the last post on the first page of this thread) and while I think that the underlying issues that caused concern are still there, I still think I underestimated his abilities a little after this start. I do expect serious BA regression from the .300 he was carrying, but I no longer think hes a regular .220 BA guy. Id say more around .240-.245 and with everything else he offers, thats a kick a** package for what you paid this year IMO

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3 hours ago, Jyeatbvg said:

Can we talk about his .460 babip for a sec?

 

It's .372 for his career and he has far and away the best exit velocity of any hitter in baseball. It's gonna come down, but maybe not as much as you're thinking (I could see him finishing the season with a .400 mark). 

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3 hours ago, DoctorPayne said:

 

It's .372 for his career and he has far and away the best exit velocity of any hitter in baseball. It's gonna come down, but maybe not as much as you're thinking (I could see him finishing the season with a .400 mark). 

 

His batted ball profile definitely lends itself to a high BABIP. Everyone is saying that his BABIP is gonna fall (which it will) but I don't think it will come crashing down like many believe.

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I got this guy off the wire in a league that penalizes strike outs. I have zero complaints. If he slumps for the next month, I'll have zero complaints. I'm playing with the house's money at this point.

 

From everything I'm reading though, he's made a significant change in his approach at the plate so while there is undoubtedly some regression coming I still think we're looking at a very productive fantasy asset.

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1 minute ago, GrapeJuice said:

I got this guy off the wire in a league that penalizes strike outs. I have zero complaints. If he slumps for the next month, I'll have zero complaints. I'm playing with the house's money at this point.

 

From everything I'm reading though, he's made a significant change in his approach at the plate so while there is undoubtedly some regression coming I still think we're looking at a very productive fantasy asset.

 

Curious what he ranks in a league like that? Do the rest of the counting stats make up for it, and will they when his avg drops into the .250-.260 range?

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11 minutes ago, El Guapo said:

 

Curious what he ranks in a league like that? Do the rest of the counting stats make up for it, and will they when his avg drops into the .250-.260 range?

 

Sano is the 25th ranked OFer and the 9th ranked 3B in my points league.

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It's just funny that he's pretty much been absolutely killing it all season relative to his ADP yet there's a chorus of people ready to pounce on him at any sign of regression. He literally only had 3 bad games in a row out of 45 played and everyone's like "OMG I TOLD YOU HE SUCKED HERE'S THE REAL SANO!!11"

 

 

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1 hour ago, Purple Hippo said:

It's just funny that he's pretty much been absolutely killing it all season relative to his ADP yet there's a chorus of people ready to pounce on him at any sign of regression. He literally only had 3 bad games in a row out of 45 played and everyone's like "OMG I TOLD YOU HE SUCKED HERE'S THE REAL SANO!!11"

 

 

 

I think that's mainly because the plate discipline peripherals have actually regressed. I'd be a lot more optimistic about his outlook if he had made some strides in cutting his K% and improving his Contact%, SwStr%, etc

 

In fairness, he has improved his BB%, so maybe he has made some strides that just aren't translating to reducing his swings and misses/strikeouts yet, but yeah that's why I think a lot of people are expecting major regression. 

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It's fine to expect some regression - I think most of us here do. However, can we pump the brakes and wait more than 3 games and a handful of at bats before posting stuff like

 

 

On 5/26/2017 at 11:01 PM, WaKe21334 said:

Missed the sell high chance. He has struck out in his last 7 at bats.

 

On 5/26/2017 at 11:51 PM, Sun Tzu said:

He's Maikel Franco.  Expecting more because of a BABIP wet dream?  

 

On 5/29/2017 at 9:46 AM, shakestreet said:

more like will Miguel Sano break the record for most strikeouts in a season?

 

 

 

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5 minutes ago, WaKe21334 said:

Do you not think about 2 weeks ago when he was hitting over 300 was his sell high point? I still do despite last nights game. His batting average will not be higher than mid 260s at seasons end.

Sure it was his sell high point for those who owned him, that doesn't mean anyone saw him as a buy high candidate. If you're in a competitive league, then no one should really be believing he will end up above .300 at the end of the year. 

 

What we have found out is he's probably not gonna be .220-.240 avg guy, which is great. He'll probably end up in the .250-.270 range. Yeah he's gonna k a lot but his walks have gone up too. He's valuable on a team with the power and rbi opportunities. And will end up vastly outperforming his adp.

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27 minutes ago, Purple Hippo said:

It's fine to expect some regression - I think most of us here do. However, can we pump the brakes and wait more than 3 games and a handful of at bats before posting stuff like

 

 

 

 

 

 

what the hell are you quoting me for?

 

all I wanted to know if anybody thought if Miguel Sano could break the all-time strikeouts for a season.... the record is 223 in '09 by Mark Reynolds

 

Sano has 73 in 165 AB's

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2 hours ago, shakestreet said:

what the hell are you quoting me for?

 

all I wanted to know if anybody thought if Miguel Sano could break the all-time strikeouts for a season.... the record is 223 in '09 by Mark Reynolds

 

Sano has 73 in 165 AB's

I think its probably a pretty safe assumption given what we've seen so far. He's a streaky guy. When he's off, he cant make contact very well, but he still hits the ball harder than anyone in baseball by a good margin. Im betting his strikeout rate and hard hit rates are both going to be huge outliers still at seasons end. He could strikeout 35% of the time or more and still smash 45 bombs with a very high BABIP to help his average stay higher than most would expect(.250 range).

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Miguel Sano is top 10 in:

 

RBIs (5th)

BB% (10th)

ISO (7th)

OBP (10th)

SLG (6th)

wOBA (5th)

wRC+ (5th)

OFF (7th)

OPS (7th)

 

Hard% (1st)

Soft% (2nd behind the other littler Miggy)

Avg Exit Velocity (1st)

Barrels (3rd)

 

He has arrived. 

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9 minutes ago, Beakman said:

What the hell is a barrel?  I can never keep up with these new baseball terms.

 

One of my favorite statcast stats. It's a combination of exit velocity and launch angle. Essentially really well hit balls (i.e. with the barrel of the bat). Barrels have an average batting average of .800 and slugging percentage of 3.000. 

 

In Depth Explanation Link

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