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Miguel Sano 2017 Outlook


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First things first I own Miguel on 3 of 4 teams.  Big fan of this guy.  Is this the peak though?  .462!!!! BABIP.  Next closet is .411, highest last year was .388 -- and that was a Rockie.  He's made tremendous strides with BB rate, and as @Fenamo highlighted nicely his barrel rates etc are amazing.  But you can't help but think an absolute vicious stretch is coming, no?

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7 minutes ago, Cmilne23 said:

First things first I own Miguel on 3 of 4 teams.  Big fan of this guy.  Is this the peak though?  .462!!!! BABIP.  Next closet is .411, highest last year was .388 -- and that was a Rockie.  He's made tremendous strides with BB rate, and as @Fenamo highlighted nicely his barrel rates etc are amazing.  But you can't help but think an absolute vicious stretch is coming, no?

 

He had a .396 BABIP in '15 his rookie season and .329 last season (a down season). In the minors his BABIP was constantly above .300 and often approaching .400. 

 

I wouldn't be surprised if his BABIP ended around .400 for the season with how hard he hits the ball when he makes contact combined with his strikeouts (he doesn't hit it soft, he just strikes out). I think .350 is a more realistic target though.

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1 minute ago, Fenamo said:

 

He had a .396 BABIP in '15 his rookie season and .329 last season (a down season). In the minors his BABIP was constantly above .300 and often approaching .400. 

 

I wouldn't be surprised if his BABIP ended around .400 for the season with how hard he hits the ball when he makes contact combined with his strikeouts (he doesn't hit it soft, he just strikes out). I think .350 is a more realistic target though.

Yes this^^^.. Hits the ball way harder than anyone last time I seen. This is what other Fantasy experts are worried about saying sell high. It's Almost the middle of June and he is still beasting. Rotoprofesser said he wasn't even a top 15 3rd baseman! I'm sure some regression will come in avg but elite power numbers will keep him top 5.

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14 minutes ago, TTRA1N said:

Yes this^^^.. Hits the ball way harder than anyone last time I seen. This is what other Fantasy experts are worried about saying sell high. It's Almost the middle of June and he is still beasting. Rotoprofesser said he wasn't even a top 15 3rd baseman! I'm sure some regression will come in avg but elite power numbers will keep him top 5.

 

 

I think .260 AVG, 90 R, 40 HR, 110 RBI is a realistic expectation for end of season numbers. The BABIP will come down a bit but I don't think it will drop much below .370 at the worst. 

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10 hours ago, High&Inside said:

Average correction incoming...

 

Seems like it. One of his ABs resulted in a GB to 3rd base, he hit it 109 MPH but it went right at Seager. Those balls not finding hole, combined with his K rate has seen his BABIP come down a bit in the last 5 games. 

 

 

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2 hours ago, bradwatson said:

This guy is awesome. Every time it seems like he might be starting to slow down he starts eating again. Homers in back to back games to get him up to 18 for the year. What a stud.

 

The Sano train keeps rolling. Hopefully that regression doesn't hit until 2018!

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7 minutes ago, osb_tensor said:

lol I get what you're saying, but the timing is odd after a two homerun day. 

 

Heh, yeah, good point. But that's the problem with guys like Sano in a points league -- the home runs are so seductive, plus everyone in roto is going bananas (rightfully so), that it can be hard to realize that he's a fringe starter at 3B and slowly slipping out of starter status in the OF due to the Ks. (See: Chris Davis)

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1 hour ago, GrapeJuice said:

 

Heh, yeah, good point. But that's the problem with guys like Sano in a points league -- the home runs are so seductive, plus everyone in roto is going bananas (rightfully so), that it can be hard to realize that he's a fringe starter at 3B and slowly slipping out of starter status in the OF due to the Ks. (See: Chris Davis)

This makes sense but wouldn't you just avoid guys like Sano in points leagues that penalizes Ks? Doesn't he have the highest K rate of all time to begin a career? Seems like an obvious stay away.

 

In OPS leagues he has been absolute gold.

Edited by bradwatson
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On 7/2/2017 at 11:12 AM, bradwatson said:

This makes sense but wouldn't you just avoid guys like Sano in points leagues that penalizes Ks? Doesn't he have the highest K rate of all time to begin a career? Seems like an obvious stay away.

 

In OPS leagues he has been absolute gold.

 

He's not bad, just not as golden as he is in roto leagues. He's the 12th ranked 3B and 40th ranked OF in a league that starts 4 OFers. Obviously well deserving of a roster spot and even starting most times. Just when he goes through these patches of 3 K games it's tough not to sit him and give him a mental break from my fantasy team. 

 

I got him off waivers this year so there was no cost. But come next year, when he's going to require a decent draft pick and his value will be bloated (for points leagues) because virtually all of the online rankings lists are tailored to roto leagues? Yeah, he'll probably be a stay away for me.

 

At this point though I fear for the home run derby. He already swings the bat like Thor's hammer so I'm hoping it doesn't mess up his swing for the start of the second half.

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