Jump to content
NBC Sports Edge Forums

Andrew Susac 2017 Outlook


Recommended Posts

Will be 27 when the season starts. He was traded from the Giants last year when they got jiggy with it, acquiring Will Smith for Phil Bickford and Susac.

 

He spent his career behind the best catcher of this generation, naturally not getting a ton of playing time. 

 

When he did get playing time in his career, he put up in 262 PA: 30 / 7 / 35 / 0 / .235 / .309 / .397 and a .317 wOBA, which is roughly league average (league average wOBA was .318 in 2016, .313 in 2015, .310 in 2014).

 

Double those PA to get a rough view of a catcher season (for example, Stephen Vogt had 532 PA last year, 2x Susac's career comes out to 524 PA), and his prorated stats look like 60 / 14 / 70 / 0 / .235...those numbers are pretty comparable to Wellington Castillo, who finished #10 on the player rater in standard 5 x 5 leagues ( 46 / 14 / 50 / 1 / .264). 

 

Since 2014, among catchers (min PA 200), his career wOBA of .317 is #17. This looks like a league average offensive profile, descriptively speaking. But as shown above, he could be capable of finishing with top 10 fantasy catcher numbers. And additionally, there may still be room for him to improve.

 

Challenges:

Susac will have to beat out Manny Pina and Jett Bandy for the starting role.

 

Manny Pina is a career minor leaguer who at the age of 29 has amassed 98 PA and a .312 wOBA, which isn't far off from Susac. He is likely the strongest competition.

 

Jett Bandy has had a similar career to Susac, will be 27, has amassed 233 PA and has a .295 wOBA.

 

Leap of Faith:

I believe Susac will win the starting job. I have looked at scouting reports for all three catchers and will show my findings below, including defense, because defense is highly relevant to whether a catcher will get playing time.

 

Jett Bandy, Scouting Report c. 9/9/15: Bandy is your prototypical "power-before-hit, arm-before-receiver" backstop. There's a great deal of raw power from his 6-foot-4, 235-pound frame, and when he's able to make contact he's capable of producing tape-measure shots to the power alleys. Because of his swing's length and his lack of patience at the plate, that power isn't often tapped into, which helps explain why he's struggled to hit for average in anything but the friendly confines of the Pacific Coast League. He's improved his receiving, but expecting anything more than mediocre defense is too much. Because of the power, he has a chance to stick as a bench bat that can handle your staff on Sundays. —Christopher Crawford

+.295 Small Sample wOBA = mediocre defense + mediocre offense = mediocre catcher. I do not believe Bandy is a serious contender for the starting job.

 

Manny Pina, Scouting Report c. 5/1/09: [Pina has] the reputation of a no-hit catcher with very good defensive skills who might profile as a backup. —Kevin Goldstein

This may bode some trouble for Susac, because good defensive skills and a similar small sample wOBA (.326 in 2016) make him a legitimate contender. He did, after all split time with Susac down the stretch for the Brewers last season. However, I still do not believe he possesses the same upside as Susac.

 

Andrew Susac:

3/1/13:  Scouting Report

Has the pop to hit 20 bombs from a premium defensive position; most likely a sub .260 hitter; some on-base skills; not a stolen base threat.   The defensive profile is solid and he projects to remain behind the plate.

 

1/5/15: Scouting Report

The Tools: 5 potential hit; 6 power; 5+ arm; 5 potential glove

Strengths: Advanced approach with good feel for zone; solid plus power plays in game at present; good strength; balanced swing stays on plane and allows for hard contact pole to pole; natural backspin and carry; improving actions behind the plate; capable defender who could refine to average overall producer with glove; above-average arm with solid release and accuracy.

Weaknesses: Average bat speed and coverage holes; can be beat by sequencing and elevated heat; danger that overexposure at big-league level will eat into contact and power utility once book gets out; well below-average runner; likely tops out as average defender.

Overall Future Potential: High 5; above-average regular

Realistic Role: 5; average major leaguer

Risk Factor/Injury History: Low; solid major-league debut in 2014.

Bret Sayre’s Fantasy Take: In an organization that would see him getting real playing time in 2015, Susac would be a more interesting fantasy name. However, given that he’ll likely get used sparingly, his fantasy ETA remains unknown. Given a full complement of at-bats, Susac could hit .260 with 20 homers, making him a potential top-10 catcher.

2/9/15: #97 overall prospect per Baseball Prospectus

 

Fun fact: Susac is the only Brewers catcher to appear on a top 100 prospects list. And Milwaukee is a much friendlier stadium for hitters than San Francisco's stadium (worst in league for power). 

 

So here we are. It is January 18, 2017, 2.5 months before the season, so we obviously still do not know how things will shake out. There will be a spring training battle for starting catcher. I believe Andrew Susac will win this battle because I believe that he not only has the best pedigree as a prospect, but the pedigree through tutelage, learning from the game's best (Buster Posey).

 

Full season projection: 480 PA, 55 R / 17 HR / 55 RBI / 4 SB / .255. Yeah, 4 SB...those wily brewers on the basepaths!

Link to post
Share on other sites

He is a guy I touted as sleeper in the catching thread, he showed some promise in limited time backing up Posey as you mentioned, he certainly has the resume (former 2nd round pick and top 100 prospect pre2015) and upside.  If he lands the job, he is a great 2nd C option on the cheap.  The problem in my league is that I have probably 1/4 of my league being Giants fans, so they know who he is, know his pedigree, etc.  For me, I am almost hoping he does get the job and I will call him early in the auction for a little bit of an overpay from them OR I get him on the cheap.  

Link to post
Share on other sites
  • 1 month later...
39 minutes ago, brockpapersizer said:

Matt Wieters signing with the Nationals seals some value for Susac, there were some rumors he'd end up in Milwaukee. 

Yep was watching that one closely as he was kind of the last chip to fall.  Now its there for him to win in spring. 

Link to post
Share on other sites
  • 4 weeks later...

For the moment, I retract some of my enthusiasm. He's having a horrible spring and now is dealing with a neck injury.

 

Still rooting for him but this is an unfortunate spring so far.

Link to post
Share on other sites
  • 1 month later...

Anyone think this guy is still a good stash in keeper leagues? Have not heard much about him and Pina looks to be beasting so far this year. Thinking it's time to downgrade his outlook based mostly on a blocked path, but there's always next year.

Link to post
Share on other sites
10 minutes ago, rando said:

Anyone think this guy is still a good stash in keeper leagues? Have not heard much about him and Pina looks to be beasting so far this year. Thinking it's time to downgrade his outlook based mostly on a blocked path, but there's always next year.

Both Pina and Bandy are playing better than Lucroy, lol. It's an unfortunate situation for Susac.

 

Would have to be an NL only or very deep league to have Susac as a stash.

Link to post
Share on other sites

Even being able to keep him at a dollar for two years, in a 348 player pool/two catcher league he's lost me. Too bad so sad. It felt like the right sentiment shift, and even the Susac fan club is thinking of folding.

Link to post
Share on other sites
  • 3 months later...

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
×
×
  • Create New...