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Starling Marte 2017 Outlook


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Seems to be incredibly under the radar/undervalued.

 

Was hurt consistently last year while missing most of September with back spasms, and the Pirates underperformed.

 

Entering his age 28 season, I have him with a line of:

145 games: ~.300 AVG, 15-20 HR, 80 R, 75 RBI, and 35-40 Steals.

Edited by b0nfire
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Marte has had an interesting few years while producing great numbers and ranking among the best fantasy OFs in the game. Last season he put up a .311/362/.456 line with 9 HRs and 47 SBs, good for a 121 wRC+. The average bump was the result of continued better contact (19.4 K%) and a .380 BAPIP which is above anything he's put up previously in his career, but nothing that far as he previously put up a .373 BAPIP in 2014 (24 K% that year). What is interesting is that he hit more flyballs in 2016 (up 5.7% last season) and hit the ball harder (career high 34.7 Hard hit rate). So you would think he would be able to jump back into the upper teens in HRs, but he altered his approach last year and hit the ball the other way more often than ever before and had the lowest pull percentage of his career (37.6%). Assuming those skills remain similar this coming season, it's hard to project more than 12-15 HRs for him. He should continue to hit for a good average as his contact skills are elite and he hits a lot of line drives and groundballs which are helped by his speed. Combine that with his SB skills that are at a premium in today's game, and he's a very very valuable multiple category outfielder. Something like .290+, 13 HRs, 75 Runs, 75 RBIs, 35 SBs seems about right to me. 

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  • 2 weeks later...

For those who play in LF,RF,CF leagues, him moving to CF is pretty big deal. And vise versa Mccutch. The Pitates obviously must've been watching all the industry articles being written on Mccutch's lack of range.

 

Not sure if the extra defensive responsibility will change anything in his offense, but I'm sure that's negligible.

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I'm excited for Marte this season coming into his age 28 prime year. He's shown good power, great speed, and a solid batting avg and counting stats. He has an excellent floor barring injuries and a recurrence of back spasms. 

 

The big question is if he will be able to put his power and speed peaks together and turn into a .300/90/20/80/50 guy over a full season of at bats. I'll be taking him at his ADP and hoping for a top 5-10 return which is reasonable with the projected line above. Thoughts?

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18 minutes ago, tywalson said:

I'm excited for Marte this season coming into his age 28 prime year. He's shown good power, great speed, and a solid batting avg and counting stats. He has an excellent floor barring injuries and a recurrence of back spasms. 

 

The big question is if he will be able to put his power and speed peaks together and turn into a .300/90/20/80/50 guy over a full season of at bats. I'll be taking him at his ADP and hoping for a top 5-10 return which is reasonable with the projected line above. Thoughts?

 

Pretty much same. Could be a 20/50 guy. Probably too high on both but he's hit 19 before and he paced I believe 52 last year so it's not that crazy to expect. 

On 2/5/2017 at 1:16 AM, bbythepier said:

^And posts 1-5 talk about his sneaky value. Well, his ADP is 23 in Nfbc & 19 in Y! so far. The fantasy community recognizes his value.

 

I agree there's little that's sneaky about Marte but aside from a somewhat pedestrian RBI total Marte brings true first round upside. He'll never be a first rounder I don't believe because I don't think he has consistent first round upside, but he can easily have that magic year with his toolkit in terms of HR+SB+BA and out of all the SB options at the high level this side of trea turner, Marte may have close to the most power, the most BA, and the most security. Would be hard to imagine a world where Marte's full season pace isn't at least .285/10/35 and tha'ts not killing you. 

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15 minutes ago, Chaco Chicken said:

I appreciate his efforts to get on base but I really want him to stop getting hit by so many pitches. 

 

Him and Rizzo. They get hit by so many pitches that I have to adjust for it when doing projections because they come out wrong because of how many PAs are being consumed by getting hit by pitches. 

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Disclaimer: I do like Starling Marte.  I fully expect him to hit around .300 with 30+ SB's, and decent counting stats.

 

 If I'm looking solely for speed, I'd draft him in the second round.  But I'm usually looking for the best overall player at that point in the draft.  Marte's fantasypro ADP is 23.  So late second round.  The guys in that range include Thor, Correa, Votto, Sale, EE, Freeman, Kluber, Cano, and Lindor.  I like Marte a lot, but he doesn't scream second rounder to me.  Surely a top 40 asset, but if any of those guys are on the board, I'm taking one of them.

Edited by phillyphan21
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1 hour ago, phillyphan21 said:

Disclaimer: I do like Starling Marte.  I fully expect him to hit around .300 with 30+ SB's, and decent counting stats.

 

 If I'm looking solely for speed, I'd draft him in the second round.  But I'm usually looking for the best overall player at that point in the draft.  Marte's fantasypro ADP is 23.  So late second round.  The guys in that range include Thor, Correa, Votto, Sale, EE, Freeman, Kluber, Cano, and Lindor.  I like Marte a lot, but he doesn't scream second rounder to me.  Surely a top 40 asset, but if any of those guys are on the board, I'm taking one of them.

 

I feel you. There are too many guys around that spot that I'd rather have. Marte is #18 overall on Yahoo. 

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40 minutes ago, phillyphan21 said:

Disclaimer: I do like Starling Marte.  I fully expect him to hit around .300 with 30+ SB's, and decent counting stats.

 

 If I'm looking solely for speed, I'd draft him in the second round.  But I'm usually looking for the best overall player at that point in the draft.  Marte's fantasypro ADP is 23.  So late second round.  The guys in that range include Thor, Correa, Votto, Sale, EE, Freeman, Kluber, Cano, and Lindor.  I like Marte a lot, but he doesn't scream second rounder to me.  Surely a top 40 asset, but if any of those guys are on the board, I'm taking one of them.

 

Thor/Sale/Kluber are a team construction and philosophy argument. 

 

A lot of those guys I do agree with you but in a lot of drafts he goes just outside that range too. Cano in particular though I'd debate you on. Other than the RBI difference-- which will be stark-- I don't see it. I don't think their floors barring health are all that different (well, categorically they're different) and Marte has much more upside. BA is going to be pretty close to a wash and Marte's pretty confidently going to smash him in HR+SB, and as long as about 13-15 of those or Homers I think that's good enough. The counting stats are where Cano wins more than anything and I'd take upside over counting stats. 

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My only concern with Marte is that CF is more physically demanding so we could see him miss some time this year.  Hasn't exactly been the picture of perfect health last few years.  He's an early 3rd rd pick for me, too many other bats I'd feel more comfortable with in the 2nd.

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1 hour ago, taobball said:

 

Thor/Sale/Kluber are a team construction and philosophy argument. 

 

A lot of those guys I do agree with you but in a lot of drafts he goes just outside that range too. Cano in particular though I'd debate you on. Other than the RBI difference-- which will be stark-- I don't see it. I don't think their floors barring health are all that different (well, categorically they're different) and Marte has much more upside. BA is going to be pretty close to a wash and Marte's pretty confidently going to smash him in HR+SB, and as long as about 13-15 of those or Homers I think that's good enough. The counting stats are where Cano wins more than anything and I'd take upside over counting stats. 

 

In regards to Cano, remember that he managed to recapture his Yankee days last season.  If he can capture that again - and the underlying numbers indicate it's at least possible - I think he does hold more value than Marte.  Not gonna be too nitpicky about individual disagreements though.  We seem to be in general agreement on Marte at an rate.  I'm sure there's someone you like more than Marte I might balk at.  

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Just now, phillyphan21 said:

 

In regards to Cano, remember that he managed to recapture his Yankee days last season.  If he can capture that again - and the underlying numbers indicate it's at least possible - I think he does hold more value than Marte.  Not gonna be too nitpicky about individual disagreements though.  We seem to be in general agreement on Marte at an rate.  I'm sure there's someone you like more than Marte I might balk at.  

 

Yeah I'm very aware he hit 39 Homers last year, about as much so as I'm aware Marte stole 47 bases while missing 30+ games. 

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Just now, taobball said:

 

Yeah I'm very aware he hit 39 Homers last year, about as much so as I'm aware Marte stole 47 bases while missing 30+ games. 

 

I mean, I'm not expecting 39 homers.  That's a career high.  I'm simply commenting that the general line was very close to what he was doing before going to Seattle. 

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1 minute ago, phillyphan21 said:

 

I mean, I'm not expecting 39 homers.  That's a career high.  I'm simply commenting that the general line was very close to what he was doing before going to Seattle. 

 

No I understand exactly what you're saying I'm saying that I'm taking this Marte over this/that Cano. You have to draft differently but I'll take the little powre and a ton of speed of Marte with the same BA over the lot of power and empty speed.

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1 minute ago, taobball said:

 

No I understand exactly what you're saying I'm saying that I'm taking this Marte over this/that Cano. You have to draft differently but I'll take the little powre and a ton of speed of Marte with the same BA over the lot of power and empty speed.

 

That's fair.  I do see where you're coming from here.  We all have our preferences.  When you get right down to it, both of these guys are All Star caliber players.  And both are among the safer picks imo.  

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2 minutes ago, phillyphan21 said:

 

That's fair.  I do see where you're coming from here.  We all have our preferences.  When you get right down to it, both of these guys are All Star caliber players.  And both are among the safer picks imo.  


Right, and when you consider the fact that I have him ranked #27 as well, I'm assuming in most leagues you already have two players like Stein mentioned above and I think that's the ideal for Marte: Early 3rd, two players on the team, either a great hitter or top 3 ace, or two great hitters to balance cats and then getting the speed to really balance cats. 

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I think he become more valuable in H2H of course but it also depends on team set up as mentioned above. I think he's about the safest player with 40sb+ ability out there which holds a lot of value.

 

Where do we think he will be batting? 4th is where I see him projected most often. Harrison, Bell, Cutch, Marte, Polanco, Kang is solid...

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Trying to decide how I really feel about Marte.  I've seen some posts about him moving to CF and whether that will affect him - from everything I've heard/read, Marte has wanted to play CF for a while now... perhaps getting to play the position he wants to play will end up a net positive?  I realize it's more physically demanding, but with his speed he was still covering a ton of ground from LF anyway (which is what gave the Pirates such great OF defense to begin with).

 

As for the hitter and the metrics...

 

Power - Yes, we've seen a 19 HR season, but look at the career:

2013 - 12 HRs in 135 games -- 12.2% HR/FB

2014 - 13 HRs in 135 games -- 12.7% HR/FB

2015 - 19 HRs in 153 games -- 18.6% HR/FB

2016 - 9 HRs in 129 games -- 8.4% HR/FB

 

If I'm circling the outlier, it's the 19 HRs.  That said, he pulled the ball way more in 2015, and strangely enough hit WAY more grounders that year.  He also had the lowest Hard Contact of any year in 2015, so... lots of weirdness going on there.  His other 3 years pretty closely mirror one another.  Last year's HR/FB was a bit low, and as others have pointed out, he made plenty of gains as a hitter, so I think this is a true talent 15-HR guy in a full season (if he manages to play a full season)... I'm just not expecting 20 again.

 

Speed - Pretty consistent here, though last year was certainly more aggressive than the past:

2013 - 41 SB -- SPD of 8.7

2014 - 30 SB -- SPD of 7.1

2015 - 30 SB -- SPD of 5.9

2016 - 47 SB -- SPD of 7.7

 

Adding all that together, Marte has a career SPD score on Fangraphs of 7.6, which is directly in line with last year's 7.7.  Does that mean he's a true talent 50 SB guy?  I'm not sure what to make of it.  Given all the HBP he takes, he tends to find himself dinged at given points during the season.  Last year's steals were fairly consistent by month until the back spasms in September.  Given his SPD score matching last season, I think it's plausible his true talent is a 50+ guy

APR/MAR - 7 SB

MAY - 10 SB

JUN - 4 SB

JUL - 15 SB

AUG - 10 SB

SEP - 1

 

Prior to September he averaged 9.2 per month for the first 5 months of the season.  If he stays healthy and holds that pace through a full year, we're looking at 50-55 SBs.

 

Average - consistent .285+ hitter, but will we get .300+?

2013 - .280 (.363 BABIP)

2014 - .291 (.373 BABIP)

2015 - .287 (.333 BABIP)

2016 - .311 (.380 BABIP)

 

Last year's BABIP was higher than usual, but it looks to me like Marte fully earned the BABIP.  Prior to 2016 he had established himself as a plus BABIP guy with 3 straight years of .333 plus.  And that .333 came with the odd batting line I referenced before, where his GB/FB was 2.37 and his Hard Contact was a career low of 29.1%.  Last year the batted ball profile reversed back to his career norms (1.70 GB/FB -- in line with his 2014 of 1.62 and 2013 of 1.85), but he also posted a career best 25.1% Oppo (previous high of 23.1% in 2014) and a career best 34.7% Hard Contact (previous high of 33% in 2014).  Essentially, his 2016 very closely mirrored his 2014, but was even better - so I kind of buy the high BABIP.  Using Alex Chamberlain's xBABIP, we get a .355 BABIP, so maybe .380 was a tick high, but it's not outrageous IMO.  So, adding it all up, if Marte can keep his approach from 2016 into this season and hold his HARD % gains and his Oppo % gains, I think we're looking at a .300 hitter. 

 

Roster Resource currently pegs Marte to hit 4th, which means we could see upwards of 90+ RBI assuming he holds that spot (of note - he hit .332/.391/.524 over 250 ABs as a cleanup hitter last year).  And with Polanco and Kang behind him, it's totally plausible his Rs also approach 80+.  Even at .290, if he adds those 13-15 HRs and 45+ steals to 80+ RBI and 80+ runs, that's a very, very valuable asset. 

 

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