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Starling Marte 2017 Outlook


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51 minutes ago, colepenhagen said:

this is just wrong

 

your not going to have an entire lineup of players that will contribute in all 5+ hitting categories

 

This. Forget the fact that steals are at a premium and inherently very valuable. You're trying to build a team and unless you punt a category you should aim for balance. For example, last year in my league if you had Marte and say Chris Davis they combined for an average of 85 R, 24 HR, 65 RBI, 24 SBs, 0.350 OBP. At an ADP of 55 based on this year's ESPN draft (probably much better the year prior).  That'll play just fine. 

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46 minutes ago, chud12 said:

 

Why not grab all 3??.. I have owned Marte for awhile and scooped up Maybin and Mallex in recent days.. Corner the marker if you must.. 

 

I've had between 6-8 players on the DL at any given time between 3 DL spots.  I don't know where you guys are finding the room to stash all these guys...

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1 minute ago, smeeze said:

 

I've had between 6-8 players on the DL at any given time between 3 DL spots.  I don't know where you guys are finding the room to stash all these guys...

 

I have had 3=5 guys on the DL with only 2 DL spots for the last 2 months and I am finding ways 2 get these guys on my squad. If it comes too punting saves like I did early on or only owning 4 sp's at a point than I have done what needs too be done. Sacrifices must be made for elite bats or upside.. 

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2 hours ago, dmac88 said:

Braun and Melky did just fine after returning from PED suspensions. There's more evidence that the gains last in the short term than drop off.

What are you talking about?

 

Melky went from hitting .346 Avg with .906 OPS to being a fringe waiver wire OF.

 

Braun went from 40 HR & 30 SB while leading the league in OPS two straight years and 100+/100+ R/RBI in two straight years and MVP to hitting 20-20 once since 2012... and struggling to get 80/80 R/RBI... Braun is only still good now because of how high of a producer he used to be, she'll of his former self... he went from #1 player in baseball to top 10 OF once in 4 years.

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1 hour ago, StevieStats said:

What are you talking about?

 

Melky went from hitting .346 Avg with .906 OPS to being a fringe waiver wire OF.

 

Braun went from 40 HR & 30 SB while leading the league in OPS two straight years and 100+/100+ R/RBI in two straight years and MVP to hitting 20-20 once since 2012... and struggling to get 80/80 R/RBI... Braun is only still good now because of how high of a producer he used to be, she'll of his former self... he went from #1 player in baseball to top 10 OF once in 4 years.

You call .316 16 HRs 73 RBIs, 127 wRC+, .808 OPS waiver wire? K. Just because he didn't hit .346 again (in a year when he had an unsustainable BABIP) doesn't mean it was the juice that made him good. Guys have career years, this is old as time. How come he wasn't .346 good before he got popped other than that one year? It was clearly a career year and he put up some pretty good years post-juice before the natural post-30 aging curve hit him.

Braun just put up back-to-back seasons of 130 and 133 wRC+. He's hit 40 homers ONCE in his career. Someone needs to teach you what an outlier/career season is. Guys often lose speed as they age. Expecting 20 steals every year when a guy is approaching his mid-30s is a pretty unrealistic expectation, especially when he's a guy who's had injury problems like Braun. Point is, both Melky and especially Braun have been very, very productive post-steroids, and have resembled their juiced selves (even if they didn't repeat their career years, but many players don't).

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11 minutes ago, dmac88 said:

You call .316 16 HRs 73 RBIs, 127 wRC+, .808 OPS waiver wire? K. Just because he didn't hit .346 again (in a year when he had an unsustainable BABIP) doesn't mean it was the juice. Guys have career years. How come he wasn't that good before he got popped? It was clearly a career year and he put up some pretty good years before the natural post-30 aging curve hit him.

Braun just put up back-to-back seasons of 130 and 133 wRC+. He's hit 40 homers ONCE in his career. Someone needs to teach you what an outlier/career season is. 

Do yourself a favor and go look at their production, Braun is a shell of his former self... if you can't see the major difference between 40/30/100/100, 30/30/100/100, and league leading OPS vs 1 year of 20/20 and struggling to get to 80/80 then I don't know what to say to you. ... Braun had 4 consecutive years of 100/100 with 300+ Avg and 30+ HR in 3 of 4 years... go back and look at his production, it's an incredible drop off... he's only still good because of how great he was.

 

What's funny is the year you quoted for Melky is the best season since he tested positive, you conveniently ignore 3 years of 682-709 OPS. But then make a crack about learning about outliers LOL please.... Melky is 38% owned in Yahoo leagues, yes, that is a fringe WW player.

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6 hours ago, StevieStats said:

Do yourself a favor and go look at their production, Braun is a shell of his former self... if you can't see the major difference between 40/30/100/100, 30/30/100/100, and league leading OPS vs 1 year of 20/20 and struggling to get to 80/80 then I don't know what to say to you. ... Braun had 4 consecutive years of 100/100 with 300+ Avg and 30+ HR in 3 of 4 years... go back and look at his production, it's an incredible drop off... he's only still good because of how great he was.

 

What's funny is the year you quoted for Melky is the best season since he tested positive, you conveniently ignore 3 years of 682-709 OPS. But then make a crack about learning about outliers LOL please.... Melky is 38% owned in Yahoo leagues, yes, that is a fringe WW player.

Melky has been off the juice now for years. His ownership this year is irrelevant. He's a guy who's traditionally had injury trouble who's past 30, which is when guys who aren't superstars usually decline. He had one of his best seasons AFTER coming off the juice, which is why I quoted it because this whole thing started with suggestions that guys coming off PEDs suffer production losses. Further, Melky had an OPS over .900 once in his career, and one over .800 twice in his career (one of those coming AFTER being popped) so you saying him posting OPS marks below .800 is some big red flag is very disingenuous. He's not a good example for your theory. 

As for Braun, what do you expect, multiple MVPs or else he's a clear disappointment and the product of steroids? Lol. Name all of the repeat MVP players. It's a short list. Braun has also had injury troubles, and is approaching his mid-30s. Post-steroid era, and post-greenies being legal means aging curves are accelerated. This is normal decline. And he's STILL an all-star. I mean jeez, the guy put up .305, 30, 91 and a 133 wRC+ and a .903 OPS, to go along with 16 steals, as a 32 year old OFer who is a large man. And you think he's some poster boy for being a product of the juice? Please. Go and look at players who run. Steals decline with age, juice or no juice. Look at Charlie Blackmon, who's already stopped running. And a guy who's had leg injuries like Braun is of course going to steal less. Modern aging curves are different from the steroid/greenie era, where aging curves were artificially inflated. That's the fatal flaw in your argument.

Edited by dmac88
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8 hours ago, chud12 said:

 

I have had 3=5 guys on the DL with only 2 DL spots for the last 2 months and I am finding ways 2 get these guys on my squad. If it comes too punting saves like I did early on or only owning 4 sp's at a point than I have done what needs too be done. Sacrifices must be made for elite bats or upside.. 

 

I agree in a H2H league, where I put a premium on player production at the end of the season insofar as I am in the top half of the standings. I have had 6-7 guys on the DL in addition to Marte for the last 3 weeks, and I've still found a way to roster him. 

 

That said, as the weeks go by, I am starting to get more bearish on Marte. I still like the floor his AVG/SBs provide, but the Pirates are atrocious and we can't discount those counting statistics. Especially in another record-setting offensive year, the relative value of counting statistics are more important. A 75-75 pace from a player will be a lot more damaging in 2017 than it was in 2014. Relatedly, with the power binge, low HR guys are more heavily penalized.  

 

All of this is to say that I don't expect good Run/RBI contribution from Marte when he comes back, and only modest power (~12 HR pace). Still is worth holding, but I don't think 2nd round production is possible from him, even with the rarity of SB. 

 

 

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38 minutes ago, dmac88 said:

Melky has been off the juice now for years. His ownership this year is irrelevant. He's a guy who's traditionally had injury trouble who's past 30, which is when guys who aren't superstars usually decline. He had one of his best seasons AFTER coming off the juice, which is why I quoted it because this whole thing started with suggestions that guys coming off PEDs suffer production losses. Further, Melky had an OPS over .900 once in his career, and one over .800 twice in his career (one of those coming AFTER being popped) so you saying him posting OPS marks below .800 is some big red flag is very disingenuous. He's not a good example for your theory. 

As for Braun, what do you expect, multiple MVPs or else he's a clear disappointment and the product of steroids? Lol. Name all of the repeat MVP players. It's a short list. Braun has also had injury troubles, and is approaching his mid-30s. Post-steroid era, and post-greenies being legal means aging curves are accelerated. This is normal decline. And he's STILL an all-star. I mean jeez, the guy put up .305, 30, 91 and a 133 wRC+ and a .903 OPS, to go along with 16 steals, as a 32 year old OFer who is a large man. And you think he's some poster boy for being a product of the juice? Please. Go and look at players who run. Steals decline with age, juice or no juice. Look at Charlie Blackmon, who's already stopped running. And a guy who's had leg injuries like Braun is of course going to steal less. Modern aging curves are different from the steroid/greenie era, where aging curves were artificially inflated. That's the fatal flaw in your argument.

I quoted Melky's peak season because that's the year he got popped. Same with Braun. I mean are you serious with this? It's not that difficult to see unless you want to live in denial. 

 

 

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3 minutes ago, StevieStats said:

I quoted Melky's peak season because that's the year he got popped. Same with Braun. I mean are you serious with this? It's not that difficult to see unless you want to live in denial. 

 

 

That's a pretty convincing rebuttal to my last post. 

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22 minutes ago, mrfrood said:

Ervin Santana says hello! 

I am not expecting much from Marte but whatever, he's worth the stash. Just trade him when he's about to return. 

Another example of a guy who did just fine after PEDs. Marte is young. If anything, it's the layoff that hurts him. 

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2 hours ago, dmac88 said:

Melky has been off the juice now for years. His ownership this year is irrelevant. He's a guy who's traditionally had injury trouble who's past 30, which is when guys who aren't superstars usually decline. He had one of his best seasons AFTER coming off the juice, which is why I quoted it because this whole thing started with suggestions that guys coming off PEDs suffer production losses. Further, Melky had an OPS over .900 once in his career, and one over .800 twice in his career (one of those coming AFTER being popped) so you saying him posting OPS marks below .800 is some big red flag is very disingenuous. He's not a good example for your theory. 

As for Braun, what do you expect, multiple MVPs or else he's a clear disappointment and the product of steroids? Lol. Name all of the repeat MVP players. It's a short list. Braun has also had injury troubles, and is approaching his mid-30s. Post-steroid era, and post-greenies being legal means aging curves are accelerated. This is normal decline. And he's STILL an all-star. I mean jeez, the guy put up .305, 30, 91 and a 133 wRC+ and a .903 OPS, to go along with 16 steals, as a 32 year old OFer who is a large man. And you think he's some poster boy for being a product of the juice? Please. Go and look at players who run. Steals decline with age, juice or no juice. Look at Charlie Blackmon, who's already stopped running. And a guy who's had leg injuries like Braun is of course going to steal less. Modern aging curves are different from the steroid/greenie era, where aging curves were artificially inflated. That's the fatal flaw in your argument.

 

 

Melky's two best years came in 2011 and 2012, the year he was caught and the year prior.   

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9 hours ago, dmac88 said:

That's a pretty convincing rebuttal to my last post. 

There's nothing else to say to you because you literally ignored the previous stats. You want to ignore their performance just prior to testing positive because it was an outlier -- well no crap, they were taking PEDs of course they produced high level outlier seasons.

 

I literally said Braun is still good because of how high a producer he previously was, he doesn't sniff his pre-PED numbers, but you are hung up on a single 30 HR 90 RBI season, which falls short of his 4 seasons leading up to PED bust.

 

If you want to ignore the numbers I posted and pretend that Performance Enhancing Drugs don't Enhance Performance, then go right ahead. I'm not going to continue going back forth in the Starling Marte thread about Melky and Braun when it's a proven fact their production decreased after busted for PED use.

 

You seem to be missing the entire point that if Marte realizes a decrease in performance he's going to be a steals guy and not much else, he hit only 9 HR last year, his R and RBI were good but not that great, and his career high .311 AVG, .362 OBP was propped up by a .380 BABIP and he doesnt walk. You aren't getting 2015 or 2016 Marte most likely and although he can contribute he's likely not going to win your league IMO.

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No need for all the arguing. Marte is worth the stash at this point, whether you have been holding or you are in a position to pick up. If you've been holding then it was a waste if you drop him now. If he's on your wire he won't be much longer once the roto bloggers start adding him to their waiver wire lists.

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1 hour ago, StevieStats said:

There's nothing else to say to you because you literally ignored the previous stats. You want to ignore their performance just prior to testing positive because it was an outlier -- well no crap, they were taking PEDs of course they produced high level outlier seasons.

 

Are we back on this again? We have no idea how PEDs contribute to on field performance. We have anecdotal evidence, but nothing else. We don't know if Marte was really fast due to PEDs or if he was really fast before. We don't know if the guy took them to speed up recovery times or if he took them to get a six-pack.

Yeah, some types of drugs make you look and feel jacked, but some also make you look that way and don't actually add any strength

So please, let's stop with the "PEDs did _________" because we don't 100% know.

 

 

Annnnnd I do agree with your post. I just wanted to get that in there in case someone read it and turned it into "Marte was super fast because of PEDs and how they make your legs longer and bigger and faster and ...."

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1 hour ago, StevieStats said:

You seem to be missing the entire point that if Marte realizes a decrease in performance he's going to be a steals guy and not much else, he hit only 9 HR last year, his R and RBI were good but not that great, and his career high .311 AVG, .362 OBP was propped up by a .380 BABIP and he doesnt walk. You aren't getting 2015 or 2016 Marte most likely and although he can contribute he's likely not going to win your league IMO.

ALSO...

 

I think he's a 10-15HR guy, nothing more. He showed power once (I doubt he was taking anything, the MLB likely would have tested due to the power increase), and he plays in a pretty neutral park. I think he's a stash in most leagues because of the SB numbers alone, but he's going to score R as well. The BA is something I'm wary of, I just don't see the .290 hitter when I watch his at bats... 

But he's out 80 games, and let's assume he was only going to play 135 games anyway (he's never healthy). Take out that 80, and he's got 55 games worth of production. I could see him stealing 20-25 bases in that time with an average between .280 and .290. That's easily a stash right now. I don't know who people who want to stash over him that could have that sort of impact entering the FBB playoffs.

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Marte probably ranks near/close to the top in per PA productivity in 5x5 roto formats. 

 

He's an easy-stash in the shallowest of formats. 

 

I like ZiPS RoS projection:

 

70 games, 300 plate appearances, .280, 7 HR, 18 SB, 40 R, 30 RBI

 

That's sweet 5 category productivity you won't find anywhere on the waiver wire.

 

 

Edited by EmbargoLifted
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5 minutes ago, EmbargoLifted said:

Marte probably ranks near/close to the top in per PA productivity in 5x5 roto formats. 

 

He's an easy-stash in the shallowest of formats. 

 

I like ZiPS RoS projection:

 

70 games, 300 plate appearances, .280, 7 HR, 18 SB, 40 R, 30 RBI

 

That's sweet 5 category productivity you won't find anywhere on the waiver wire.

 

 

I doubt he plays 70 games, but I think he can hit those numbers in 55-60.

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12 hours ago, BlueJaysIn2030 said:

Are we back on this again? We have no idea how PEDs contribute to on field performance. We have anecdotal evidence, but nothing else. We don't know if Marte was really fast due to PEDs or if he was really fast before. We don't know if the guy took them to speed up recovery times or if he took them to get a six-pack.

Yeah, some types of drugs make you look and feel jacked, but some also make you look that way and don't actually add any strength

So please, let's stop with the "PEDs did _________" because we don't 100% know.

 

 

Annnnnd I do agree with your post. I just wanted to get that in there in case someone read it and turned it into "Marte was super fast because of PEDs and how they make your legs longer and bigger and faster and ...."

This, for the most part. 

22 hours ago, rich22 said:

 

 

Melky's two best years came in 2011 and 2012, the year he was caught and the year prior.   

False. He had a comparable year to one of those years his first year with the Jays AFTER he got caught. 

14 hours ago, StevieStats said:

There's nothing else to say to you because you literally ignored the previous stats. You want to ignore their performance just prior to testing positive because it was an outlier -- well no crap, they were taking PEDs of course they produced high level outlier seasons.

 

I literally said Braun is still good because of how high a producer he previously was, he doesn't sniff his pre-PED numbers, but you are hung up on a single 30 HR 90 RBI season, which falls short of his 4 seasons leading up to PED bust.

 

If you want to ignore the numbers I posted and pretend that Performance Enhancing Drugs don't Enhance Performance, then go right ahead. I'm not going to continue going back forth in the Starling Marte thread about Melky and Braun when it's a proven fact their production decreased after busted for PED use.

 

You seem to be missing the entire point that if Marte realizes a decrease in performance he's going to be a steals guy and not much else, he hit only 9 HR last year, his R and RBI were good but not that great, and his career high .311 AVG, .362 OBP was propped up by a .380 BABIP and he doesnt walk. You aren't getting 2015 or 2016 Marte most likely and although he can contribute he's likely not going to win your league IMO.

I'm not ignoring anything. I wrote a whole post about how it all can be just as easily explained by career seasons and aging curves. But if you want to bathe in large tub of confirmation bias and put on the blinders that only allow you to see a big flashing sign that reads "PEDs" then that's on you. But don't say I'm ignoring anything. Performance enhancing. Tell me where is the proof it turns you from an all star to "waiver wire material?"

In fact, players are on record as saying PEDs DIDN'T help them in on-field performance, like hitting the ball further or harder, and that all they allowed them to do was recover faster so they could avoid injuries (which supports Braun's numbers being down slightly but still all-star worthy). And pitchers were on PEDs during the PED era too. So we're supposed to magically believe they only help hitters? Maybe there are other reasons for offence exploding. Like a juiced ball, expansion watering down talent, cookie-cutter ballparks making it easier to hit home runs. But nope, PEDs are the ONLY answer and anything else is YOU CAN'T BE SERIOUS territory. 

Braun hit 31 homers after getting popped. Marte isn't going to lose all his power because he's off the juice. Dee Gordon really benefited from all dat sweet PED power didn't he? Your argument has so many holes in it, and so many possible alternative explanations. I'm not trying to be a jerk, I'm just saying you gotta consider other viewpoints before coming to a conclusion, man. 

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9 hours ago, dmac88 said:


Braun hit 31 homers after getting popped. Marte isn't going to lose all his power because he's off the juice. Dee Gordon really benefited from all dat sweet PED power didn't he? Your argument has so many holes in it, and so many possible alternative explanations. I'm not trying to be a jerk, I'm just saying you gotta consider other viewpoints before coming to a conclusion, man. 

Ummm... Dee Gordon went from being batting champ to hitting sub 280, he was one of the best fantasy players in the league and no where near since LOL. It's pointless talking to you as you keep ignoring and ranting, for instance you keep harping on Braun hitting 30 HR once since testing, when I've said over and over he is still good but is not as good as he used to be and it's significant, he was a #1 overall player monster and top 5 pick for multiple years. He also took 3 years to get back to 30 HR, he hit 19 his first year back then 25 then 30. Melky went from 346/906 beast on pace for 120 R, 86 RBI and the next year he hit 279/682 with 3 HR and was on waivers everywhere, and you are bashing your chest over 2 years after testing when he hit 301/808, 73 RBI as if it's the same when is significantly lower than 346/906, 120 R, 86 RBI. 

 

I AM NOT SAYING THOSE PLAYERS ARE NOT GOOD ANY MORE, however, they have experienced significant decline in production since testing positive and all I was posting about is what a decline would look like for Marte rather than just jumping back in at the same ole production.

 

You keep believing these career years and peak performances immediately before testing positive for PEDs is just mere coincidence... you can do that... also, don't forget to put your teeth under your pillow for the tooth fairy, and to leave milk and cookies out on December 24th.

 

The fact some people learned nothing from the steroid era is scary.

 

AGAIN, the only thing I suggested is that Marte is not going to "win your league" when he returns, IMO. He hit 9 HR last year on PED, his counting stats were never that great, and his batting average was BABIP driven. IF his performance drops off a little he'll end up being a different player and not the 5 cat contributor he has a reputation for.

 

I'm checking out for the sake of the thread, which has gone up in flames, my apologies.

Edited by StevieStats
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10 minutes ago, StevieStats said:

Ummm... Dee Gordon went from being batting champ to hitting sub 280, he was one of the best fantasy players in the league and no where near since LOL.

That kind of backs his point up of you basing things on one random season. Dee Gordon was never that high avg hitter before that year. He is just as fast now. Steroids do not help you hit the ball any better you still need pitch recognition, film study, batting practice etc.  Dee Gordon is who we thought he was. Some players get hot for a year and then go back to being who they are.

 

Regardless lets just wait and see.....no use continuing to argue about this until Marte plays and you can come to a conclusion then (probably not this year though as he wont have that many games. Too small a sample size to judge after such a long layoff).

Edited by prizl
Had to make sure of Gordon's career stats prior to positive PED test
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