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Starling Marte 2017 Outlook


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5 minutes ago, JFS179 said:

Trying to decide how I really feel about Marte.  I've seen some posts about him moving to CF and whether that will affect him - from everything I've heard/read, Marte has wanted to play CF for a while now... perhaps getting to play the position he wants to play will end up a net positive?  I realize it's more physically demanding, but with his speed he was still covering a ton of ground from LF anyway (which is what gave the Pirates such great OF defense to begin with).

 

As for the hitter and the metrics...

 

Power - Yes, we've seen a 19 HR season, but look at the career:

2013 - 12 HRs in 135 games -- 12.2% HR/FB

2014 - 13 HRs in 135 games -- 12.7% HR/FB

2015 - 19 HRs in 153 games -- 18.6% HR/FB

2016 - 9 HRs in 129 games -- 8.4% HR/FB

 

If I'm circling the outlier, it's the 19 HRs.  That said, he pulled the ball way more in 2015, and strangely enough hit WAY more grounders that year.  He also had the lowest Hard Contact of any year in 2015, so... lots of weirdness going on there.  His other 3 years pretty closely mirror one another.  Last year's HR/FB was a bit low, and as others have pointed out, he made plenty of gains as a hitter, so I think this is a true talent 15-HR guy in a full season (if he manages to play a full season)... I'm just not expecting 20 again.

 

Speed - Pretty consistent here, though last year was certainly more aggressive than the past:

2013 - 41 SB -- SPD of 8.7

2014 - 30 SB -- SPD of 7.1

2015 - 30 SB -- SPD of 5.9

2016 - 47 SB -- SPD of 7.7

 

Adding all that together, Marte has a career SPD score on Fangraphs of 7.6, which is directly in line with last year's 7.7.  Does that mean he's a true talent 50 SB guy?  I'm not sure what to make of it.  Given all the HBP he takes, he tends to find himself dinged at given points during the season.  Last year's steals were fairly consistent by month until the back spasms in September.  Given his SPD score matching last season, I think it's plausible his true talent is a 50+ guy

APR/MAR - 7 SB

MAY - 10 SB

JUN - 4 SB

JUL - 15 SB

AUG - 10 SB

SEP - 1

 

Prior to September he averaged 9.2 per month for the first 5 months of the season.  If he stays healthy and holds that pace through a full year, we're looking at 50-55 SBs.

 

Average - consistent .285+ hitter, but will we get .300+?

2013 - .280 (.363 BABIP)

2014 - .291 (.373 BABIP)

2015 - .287 (.333 BABIP)

2016 - .311 (.380 BABIP)

 

Last year's BABIP was higher than usual, but it looks to me like Marte fully earned the BABIP.  Prior to 2016 he had established himself as a plus BABIP guy with 3 straight years of .333 plus.  And that .333 came with the odd batting line I referenced before, where his GB/FB was 2.37 and his Hard Contact was a career low of 29.1%.  Last year the batted ball profile reversed back to his career norms (1.70 GB/FB -- in line with his 2014 of 1.62 and 2013 of 1.85), but he also posted a career best 25.1% Oppo (previous high of 23.1% in 2014) and a career best 34.7% Hard Contact (previous high of 33% in 2014).  Essentially, his 2016 very closely mirrored his 2014, but was even better - so I kind of buy the high BABIP.  Using Alex Chamberlain's xBABIP, we get a .355 BABIP, so maybe .380 was a tick high, but it's not outrageous IMO.  So, adding it all up, if Marte can keep his approach from 2016 into this season and hold his HARD % gains and his Oppo % gains, I think we're looking at a .300 hitter. 

 

Roster Resource currently pegs Marte to hit 4th, which means we could see upwards of 90+ RBI assuming he holds that spot (of note - he hit .332/.391/.524 over 250 ABs as a cleanup hitter last year).  And with Polanco and Kang behind him, it's totally plausible his Rs also approach 80+.  Even at .290, if he adds those 13-15 HRs and 45+ steals to 80+ RBI and 80+ runs, that's a very, very valuable asset. 

 

 

That 2015 year - by becoming pull conscious in an effort to hit more hrs he made himself vulnerable to offspeed pitches and rolled over them leading to the spike in gb rate and soft hit percentage - he was out front. 

 

As you noted last year he went back to using the entire field, staying back on the ball, and not cheating to hit HRs.

 

It'll be interesting to watch and see if with further knowledge of pitchers and how to work the count if he tries to consolidate those two approaches this year.  Kind of like Daniel Murphy did last year. 

 

 

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9 minutes ago, JFS179 said:

Trying to decide how I really feel about Marte.  I've seen some posts about him moving to CF and whether that will affect him - from everything I've heard/read, Marte has wanted to play CF for a while now... perhaps getting to play the position he wants to play will end up a net positive?  I realize it's more physically demanding, but with his speed he was still covering a ton of ground from LF anyway (which is what gave the Pirates such great OF defense to begin with).

 

As for the hitter and the metrics...

 

Power - Yes, we've seen a 19 HR season, but look at the career:

2013 - 12 HRs in 135 games -- 12.2% HR/FB

2014 - 13 HRs in 135 games -- 12.7% HR/FB

2015 - 19 HRs in 153 games -- 18.6% HR/FB

2016 - 9 HRs in 129 games -- 8.4% HR/FB

 

If I'm circling the outlier, it's the 19 HRs.  That said, he pulled the ball way more in 2015, and strangely enough hit WAY more grounders that year.  He also had the lowest Hard Contact of any year in 2015, so... lots of weirdness going on there.  His other 3 years pretty closely mirror one another.  Last year's HR/FB was a bit low, and as others have pointed out, he made plenty of gains as a hitter, so I think this is a true talent 15-HR guy in a full season (if he manages to play a full season)... I'm just not expecting 20 again.

 

Speed - Pretty consistent here, though last year was certainly more aggressive than the past:

2013 - 41 SB -- SPD of 8.7

2014 - 30 SB -- SPD of 7.1

2015 - 30 SB -- SPD of 5.9

2016 - 47 SB -- SPD of 7.7

 

Adding all that together, Marte has a career SPD score on Fangraphs of 7.6, which is directly in line with last year's 7.7.  Does that mean he's a true talent 50 SB guy?  I'm not sure what to make of it.  Given all the HBP he takes, he tends to find himself dinged at given points during the season.  Last year's steals were fairly consistent by month until the back spasms in September.  Given his SPD score matching last season, I think it's plausible his true talent is a 50+ guy

APR/MAR - 7 SB

MAY - 10 SB

JUN - 4 SB

JUL - 15 SB

AUG - 10 SB

SEP - 1

 

Prior to September he averaged 9.2 per month for the first 5 months of the season.  If he stays healthy and holds that pace through a full year, we're looking at 50-55 SBs.

 

Average - consistent .285+ hitter, but will we get .300+?

2013 - .280 (.363 BABIP)

2014 - .291 (.373 BABIP)

2015 - .287 (.333 BABIP)

2016 - .311 (.380 BABIP)

 

Last year's BABIP was higher than usual, but it looks to me like Marte fully earned the BABIP.  Prior to 2016 he had established himself as a plus BABIP guy with 3 straight years of .333 plus.  And that .333 came with the odd batting line I referenced before, where his GB/FB was 2.37 and his Hard Contact was a career low of 29.1%.  Last year the batted ball profile reversed back to his career norms (1.70 GB/FB -- in line with his 2014 of 1.62 and 2013 of 1.85), but he also posted a career best 25.1% Oppo (previous high of 23.1% in 2014) and a career best 34.7% Hard Contact (previous high of 33% in 2014).  Essentially, his 2016 very closely mirrored his 2014, but was even better - so I kind of buy the high BABIP.  Using Alex Chamberlain's xBABIP, we get a .355 BABIP, so maybe .380 was a tick high, but it's not outrageous IMO.  So, adding it all up, if Marte can keep his approach from 2016 into this season and hold his HARD % gains and his Oppo % gains, I think we're looking at a .300 hitter. 

 

Roster Resource currently pegs Marte to hit 4th, which means we could see upwards of 90+ RBI assuming he holds that spot (of note - he hit .332/.391/.524 over 250 ABs as a cleanup hitter last year).  And with Polanco and Kang behind him, it's totally plausible his Rs also approach 80+.  Even at .290, if he adds those 13-15 HRs and 45+ steals to 80+ RBI and 80+ runs, that's a very, very valuable asset. 

 

Great write up, I truly appreciate the time and research that went into that.

 

I agree with your observations and see .290 as a floor for him this year. Batting 4th all year may lower his SB attempts as it will be more likely to have runners on base in front of him, but 40-50 is doable if not a certainty. 

 

I wonder if his approach will be changed at all this year to focus on driving the ball more? It seems that he does have the build and swing to generate 20hr power, but his approach is limiting. Also, crazy that he hit .332 batting 4th last year... I'll take that :)

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Just now, Eddy24 said:

How do hosting sites handle that? Will he get a NA designation? 

they should not

on ESPN if you want to keep Marte you have to keep him on your roster

with yahoo I have no idea

 

on fleaflicker Familia could be put on the DL:

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There goes any shot I had of competing in my big money roto league. I'm getting drunk tonight!! Thanks, Marte! 

 

But seriously, do I hold him on my bench of a 12 team roto or what? I'm so screwed. 

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3 minutes ago, shakestreet said:

they should not

on ESPN if you want to keep Marte you have to keep him on your roster

with yahoo I have no idea

 

on fleaflicker Familia could be put on the DL:

Worse then ghat Marte is on the Do Not Cut list on ESPN. Two D/L slots with 4 on the DL and now this clown.

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Just now, BJays1993 said:

There goes any shot I had of competing in my big money roto league. I'm getting drunk tonight!! Thanks, Marte! 

 

But seriously, do I hold him on my bench of a 12 team roto or what? I'm so screwed. 

I hold one share of Marte in a dynasty league, I will have to hold and at least we have deep bench

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