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Danny Salazar 2017 Outlook


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35 minutes ago, absknicks said:

 

Yeah you kinda jinxed it

 

34 minutes ago, Spina said:

Next batter faced: Walk/HR -- two runs, out of the game

 

Still great showing from Danny, and should get the win. Back in the circle of trust.

 

Sorry guys...I couldn't contain myself

 

lesson learned! 

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35 minutes ago, DJSatane said:

So is this the extreme sell high moment or is this the real deal? SPIN THAT WHEEL.

 

I get the feeling that he'd never fetch in trade a player comparable w/ his upside.  I'm gonna roll w/ him and hope he can keep it up.  Gotta say, watching him pitch that 5th when he gave up the 2 hits, I genuinely thought he was about to cave in again.  2 good starts though!  

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Wasn't as good as the Toronto game, but induced plenty of swings and misses. Had to have been at least 20. Yanked a lot of pitches but the split-change had good movement and he did paint a few 96's. Wasn't coming in with the 97+ like last game, but still brought some heat. Fastball has had some good spin to

it too. Facing the White Sox helps, but man did he baffle them. Good test with the Yankees up next. 

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I feel like there are going to be an awful lot of disappointing waiver wire adds next week. 

To me he is a poor mans Jeff Samardizja - you are tempted by the flashes and spend the season chasing the gems whilst inevitably ending up with a totally unpredictable blow up. 

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4 hours ago, tigerpete said:

I feel like there are going to be an awful lot of disappointing waiver wire adds next week. 

To me he is a poor mans Jeff Samardizja - you are tempted by the flashes and spend the season chasing the gems whilst inevitably ending up with a totally unpredictable blow up. 

I get your point but this season who can you really trust? This week I had Taillon and Darvish give up a combined 19 earned runs in back to back days. Pitching in general can't be trusted this season outside of a few elite guys. Danny has elite upside so why not gamble at this point?

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4 hours ago, tigerpete said:

I feel like there are going to be an awful lot of disappointing waiver wire adds next week. 

To me he is a poor mans Jeff Samardizja - you are tempted by the flashes and spend the season chasing the gems whilst inevitably ending up with a totally unpredictable blow up. 

Yeah the highest rated SP on my wire is friggin CC Sabathia. 

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4 hours ago, bradwatson said:

I get your point but this season who can you really trust? This week I had Taillon and Darvish give up a combined 19 earned runs in back to back days. Pitching in general can't be trusted this season outside of a few elite guys. Danny has elite upside so why not gamble at this point?

 

Totally agree - two weeks ago needing a solid pitching performance Alex Wood gives up a GS against Jaime Garica >_<

 

I guess my point with Salazar is his k/9 hides a lot of issues for fantasy owners, the lure of the strikeouts make you think you could strike gold when in reality you are going to damage every other ratio, normally even on the good starts. 

 

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He's looked the best he's ever looked since his return front the disgraced list. Is everyone holding or selling?

 

He looks like an ace, but he's looked like an ace before. Hard to tell if it's legit or fools gold.

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36 minutes ago, bradwatson said:

He's looked the best he's ever looked since his return front the disgraced list. Is everyone holding or selling?

 

He looks like an ace, but he's looked like an ace before. Hard to tell if it's legit or fools gold.

 

I actually bought in 2/5 leagues after his first start.  Again,  I've never seen him look this good command wise.  And in this clusterf of pitching I figured I'd roll the dice.

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30 minutes ago, 96mnc said:

 

I actually bought in 2/5 leagues after his first start.  Again,  I've never seen him look this good command wise.  And in this clusterf of pitching I figured I'd roll the dice.

Yea that's kinda where I am. It's hard to trust him, but there aren't many guys that can be trusted this year. He obviously has excellent stuff, and he finally seems to be able to command it. I'm tempted to sell but also wanting to hold and see if he can be the lotto ticket that can win us all a title. It's a tough call.

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Hard to trust him, but some of his secondary metrics place him in absolutely elite company. He's thrown 75 innings, so filtering to pitchers with 70+ ip:

 

- 16.2% swinging-strikes is  tied for 1st with Corey Kluber. He's right in front of Chris Sale and Max Scherzer

- His 67.5% contact rate is 2nd, barely behind Corey Kluber, and right ahead of Max Scherzer and Chris Sale

- His 78.1% zone-contact rate is 1st, right ahead of Sale, Scherzer, and DeGrom 

- His 47.1% outside the zone contact is 2nd, right behind Kluber and head of Godley, Ray, McCullers

 

I did this exercise with Mike Clevinger a few weeks ago, who was in the 7-10 range for most of these metrics, and that failed. But Salazar is in absolutely elite company. As far as being hard to hit and missing bats, he's right there with Kluber, Sale, and Scherzer. You can't get any better than that. Also, this sample includes the 50 innings early in the year where he had a 5-something era (he still had nice secondary metrics during that time). 

 

He's pitched a bit different over these past 3 games. His split-change, which has been his best pitch over the years, he's using less. He's double up his slider usage and thrown his fastball more. Two years ago batter his .375 off his slider. Last year they hit .216. This year they are hitting .133. Batters haven't hit above .186 off his change for the past 4 years, and his fastball is sitting at an excellent .234 BAA. 

 

Tying it all together, I'm on the fence here. I still don't fully trust Danny. He's a huge injury risk and we've seen flashes of greatness before, followed by multiple games where he can't find the strike-zone or complete the 5th inning. But he's absolutely dominant right now. He's been as unhittable as anyone, and is it possible he's adding a 3rd pitch? I'll be tracking that slider usage. If his slider continues to be a 3rd plus-pitch, and he's actually healthy with command, he's an ace. I bought in 3 weeks ago when he was on the DL, and I have no interest in trading him. I'd rather go down with the ship than just sell for some "safe" sp2/3 type. Danny has SP1 and title-winning upside, so I'll take my chances. 

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