Jump to content
NBC Sports Edge Forums

Danny Salazar 2017 Outlook


Recommended Posts

  • Replies 556
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

8 minutes ago, 89Topps said:

 

You can get down from the gallows pole now.

Salvaged the line.  Guess it's still April for my balls dropping.  I'll try to have more fortitude going forward.

Link to post
Share on other sites

He made pitches with the bases loaded in the early innings. The Twins also had 2nd and 3rd with no outs and only got one run.  After the 3rd or 4th inning, he settled down. He threw a lot of pitches early but somehow started finding the plate. I think he struck out Castro on three pitches in the middle innings. So his efficiency went way up. The way he started, I did not think he would make it to the 5th inning. 

 

He has talent. Does he have a pattern of  struggling with control in the early innings?

Link to post
Share on other sites
6 hours ago, rabaak said:

He made pitches with the bases loaded in the early innings. The Twins also had 2nd and 3rd with no outs and only got one run.  After the 3rd or 4th inning, he settled down. He threw a lot of pitches early but somehow started finding the plate. I think he struck out Castro on three pitches in the middle innings. So his efficiency went way up. The way he started, I did not think he would make it to the 5th inning. 

 

He has talent. Does he have a pattern of  struggling with control in the early innings?

 

He does have great talent, but control does seem to be a roadblock for him.  Not just in the early innings, this is something that has a tendency to pop up at any time in the game.  It's the difference between a SP3/low end SP2 and a SP2/low end SP1.

Link to post
Share on other sites

 

6 hours ago, rabaak said:

He has talent. Does he have a pattern of  struggling with control in the early innings?

Looking at Salazar's peripherals this season would indicate that.

 

The first time through the order (1TTO), he has a K/9 of 10.38, obviously elite. But he also has a BB/9 of 8.31 his first run through the order and a WHIP of 3.23.

Meanwhile, second and third times through the order (2+3TTO), he's been ******** lights out. BB/9's of 2.35 and 3.18, decently average. But he has a K/9 of 14.09 and 15.08 which is absolutely ridiculous. Those are like Chapman numbers, for 4ish innings at a time, K'ing over half the batters he faces after the first time through the order.

 

So why does Salazar walk so many more in the first time through the order? Looking at his season stats, it doesn't really make sense. Both his Zone% and F-Strike% are up from 2016, indicating more control. Let's compare K/9 and BB/9 to last season:

In 2016, 1TTO, he had a K/9 of 10.8 and BB/9 of 5.7

In 2016, 2+3TTO, he had a K/9 of 10.3 and BB/9 of 3.3

We see that he's just continuing a trend of having not great control early. Also, with such a small sample size, the BB/9 may not be totally accurate going forward. Say he got squeezed one batter and shouldn't have actually walked him? Taking away one walk brings his BB/9 1TTO down from 8.31 to a more Salazar-esque 6.23. Not great at all, but not worse than last year. Lucky for us, he also goes crazy 2+3TTO compared to last year.

 

The reason he's been getting thrashed early is really the amount of hard contact he's giving up early. His Hard% 1TTO is a brutal 41%, leading to a BABIP of .563. That's up from a 1TTO Hard% of 35% last year, but not that much, small sample size and all that. 

2+3TTO his Hard% last year stayed at 34%, but this year it cuts in half to 17%! That's a really fantastic number if he can keep it up.

 

Also, fun fact: Minnesota leads the league in BBs, and Salazar only walked 2 last game which is absolutely manageable for him.

 

Overall, I think Salazar is probably not doing much worse than last year 1TTO, but we need a bigger sample size to really draw any conclusions. There are absolutely some encouraging numbers in his peripherals though, and I wouldn't really be worried. Just close your eyes for the first two innings!

Link to post
Share on other sites

Just more general first inning blues for Zar...

 

Take out the first inning and he has a line of 4IP, 1ER, 3H, 1BB, 6Ks and probably energy to go another 4 innings at that pace/efficiency. He's just gotta figure out his issues in the first inning, because he's electric afterwards.

Link to post
Share on other sites
13 hours ago, agg2596 said:

Just more general first inning blues for Zar...

 

Take out the first inning and he has a line of 4IP, 1ER, 3H, 1BB, 6Ks and probably energy to go another 4 innings at that pace/efficiency. He's just gotta figure out his issues in the first inning, because he's electric afterwards.

Couldn't it be teams taking their foot of the gas while leading though also? I'm not so sure it's avoiding the first inning meltdown as much as just avoiding any big inning. It's strange because with his K stuff you'd think he's ideal to avoid big innings, but his control really deserts him when under pressure.

Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, Dirtywater97 said:

Let up 3 in the first and now will go on to pitch a gem for the rest of the game just to confuse us further.

He'll get to 5 or 5.1 to shart his pants again.

Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.


×
×
  • Create New...