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Danny Salazar 2017 Outlook


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59 minutes ago, UberRebel said:

 

In a 15 teamer you could do much worse than Salazar so stop complaining. Besides, most people on these forums play in 12 team leagues so Salazar has been either a bargain or just right for his draft price so far.

He was the 29th pitcher off the board, and he's currently the 63rd ranked pitcher.  Not sure what world you live in, but that is neither a bargain or just right.  No matter how you spin it there's absolutely nothing right with a 1.50 whip from an arm with a relatively easy schedule thus far.  As you saw Tomlin carve through Royals last night that team sucks.  They took BP vs Danny.  Now Embargo makes good points, he has had his fair share of bad luck thus far.  But a lot of his misfortune he brings on himself by not having consistent command and putting himself in terrible counts.

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15 minutes ago, Cmilne23 said:

He was the 29th pitcher off the board, and he's currently the 63rd ranked pitcher.  Not sure what world you live in, but that is neither a bargain or just right.  No matter how you spin it there's absolutely nothing right with a 1.50 whip from an arm with a relatively easy schedule thus far.  As you saw Tomlin carve through Royals last night that team sucks.  They took BP vs Danny.  Now Embargo makes good points, he has had his fair share of bad luck thus far.  But a lot of his misfortune he brings on himself by not having consistent command and putting himself in terrible counts.

 

This early in the season you can't put a ton of weight on rankings. You have lots of run of the mill SPs on the right side of a ton of luck skewing those. What matters is the peripherals at this point ... not many pitchers out their have a combined fip/xfip/seira of low 3s with a double digit K rate. 

 

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3 minutes ago, EmbargoLifted said:

 

This early in the season you can't put a ton of weight on rankings. You have lots of run of the mill SPs on the right side of a ton of luck skewing those. What matters is the peripherals at this point ... not many pitchers out their have a combined fip/xfip/seira of low 3s with a double digit K rate. 

 

That's what makes him such an enigma.  His K rate is best in MLB (at least it was before last start), yet he's giving up more hits than IP.  How does a guy with that sort of miss the bat potential give up hits at such high rates?  Is Indians defense just atrocious again?  Small sample bad luck?  These things usually even themselves out, but I would also like to see that 4.3 B/9 come down as well.  I read he altered his mechanics in offseason.  Perhaps there's still some kinks he's working out.  Either way I agree he is a solid buy low.

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2 hours ago, UberRebel said:
  23 hours ago, jb_power said:

 

Salazar went between picks 110 and 125 in all the drafts I was in.  I don't consider that fairly late.  In fact that's early to mid draft depending on the depth of your league.  Mine are 15 teamers so he's was being drafted in the 7th / 8th rounds.

 

 

2 hours ago, UberRebel said:

 

In a 15 teamer you could do much worse than Salazar so stop complaining. Besides, most people on these forums play in 12 team leagues so Salazar has been either a bargain or just right for his draft price so far.

 

WHAT?  Your reading comprehension appears to be lacking.

 

Were in my post did I complain?  I simply stated that he was drated much sooner than what you had stated as "fairly late".

 

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7 minutes ago, Travis Burten said:

He's one or two adjusetments away from being a top 5 SP.

 

Maybe, but I'm doubtful he makes those adjustments this season (and even if he does, top 5 is a bit aggressive).  He's still having a hard time finding the strike zone with any consistency, his walk rate almost identical to what it was last season, with a WHIP of 1.49.  Still a small sample yes, but he's looked like the same high K high BB pitcher he was last season.  He can help a team out in K's but he's a ratio killer.  I drafted him in a couple leagues with the hope that he could get his BB rate back to 2014-15 levels, but it's really looking like this is who he is right now and for the foreseeable future. 

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22 minutes ago, Travis Burten said:

I'm not kidding. This guy's stuff is just unreal, he;s just not a good pitcher mentally. It's almost like he's too stubborn to adapt to new pitching styles...

His change up is fantastic.  One is best in business.  His problem is he never developed a great breaking ball.  He's throwing fastball and change 90% of time now.  And his fastball is straight as an arrow with zero variances, i.e. 2 seam action.  When you pipe 95 and because you're constantly behind it will get slaughtered a few times a game at least, which in turns limit upside of "great starts."  His change up will keep the K's coming because of the arm action.  Beyond that it all comes down to fastball command.

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19 minutes ago, Cmilne23 said:

His change up is fantastic.  One is best in business.  His problem is he never developed a great breaking ball.  He's throwing fastball and change 90% of time now.  And his fastball is straight as an arrow with zero variances, i.e. 2 seam action.  When you pipe 95 and because you're constantly behind it will get slaughtered a few times a game at least, which in turns limit upside of "great starts."  His change up will keep the K's coming because of the arm action.  Beyond that it all comes down to fastball command.

 

He showed a pretty good slider last year....not sure where that went...

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He is basically a little better version of Michael Pineda.  

An argument could be made Pineda actually might be better than him right now.

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13 minutes ago, B&F said:

He is basically a little better version of Michael Pineda.  

An argument could be made Pineda actually might be better than him right now.

Pineda has much better command.  Pineda has wipe out slider, Salazar has wipe out change up.  Both have pretty meaty fastballs.  (Should be) a lot easier navigating through AL Central vs AL East though.  Parks are far more neutral in AL Central, while they are extreme hitters parks in East.  But yeah, in neutral settings they are pretty close.  

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