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Bryce Harper 2017 Outlook


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I saw a blurb on Fangraphs the other day that over the last three years JD Martinez and Bryce Harper are basically the same hitter. Either someone needs to check themselves on Harper's potential or rearrange how they value JD Martinez. 

 

I would start with moving him to left field or playing him at 1st once in a while. Just ask Jim Edmonds and Matt Kemp what crashing into walls can do to your career. And maybe wear some protective device on your hands/wrist if you're going to slide headfirst. 

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Still never seen someone go from best player in the world in April to mediocre so fast. It all turned on that Cubs series. He simply couldn't handle getting 1 or 2 pitches a game to hit, then he was totally out of wack once teams started pitching to him again. The biggest issue is that you're getting 0 discount right now. Even if he slides from 2 to 5-7, you're passing on some studly players in their own right expect him to hit for more power, better contact and not lose a lot of his speed gains. Given my desire to go safe (don't miss) in the first round, I am not sure I'm a buy unless its closer to the wrap around.

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6 minutes ago, Fuzzy_Slippers said:

Wouldn't take him any earlier than the end of the first round. Much rather have Trout, Altuve, Betts, Goldy, Bryant, Arenado, etc. 

Bryce Harpers ceiling is closer to Trout's than anybody else.  His floor is probably lower than the guys you mentioned.  Depends on your comfort level and whether you want the safer pick or not.  Picking second forces you to make a call whereas picking later allows you to pick whose left.  He just turned 24.

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45 minutes ago, Brooklyn Dude said:

Bryce Harpers ceiling is closer to Trout's than anybody else.  His floor is probably lower than the guys you mentioned.  Depends on your comfort level and whether you want the safer pick or not.  Picking second forces you to make a call whereas picking later allows you to pick whose left.  He just turned 24.

 

Yeah, if I had the second pick I most likely wouldn't take Harper.

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I expect him to be off the board in the 5-7 range - 10-12 feels right though.  The upside factor will drive his value up but honestly from a pure numbers perspective your first rounder needs to have a pretty safe floor, and even in his breakout year in 2015 he was still lagging behind guys like Arenado and Donaldson in overall numbers. 

 

If the league's newly-found power binge continues, it drives power hitting's value down across the board, with more batters able to bring the same statistical advantage to the table. You're then going to be paying more for the low ERA pitching guys like Kershaw/Hendricks, which in my mind will be very good for the fantasy game. Nice thing about baseball is there's always that balance.  

 

A guy like Harper will always be valuable but the SB benefit and lineup around him should only afford him a modest increase if this power hitting sea change is for real. 

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43 minutes ago, Backdoor Slider said:

 

No he wasn't. ESPN player rater had Bryce ahead of both. 

While that's true, we should also realize that he was ranked 4th among hitters on the Player Rater last year, behind Goldie, Pollock and Dee Gordon

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12 minutes ago, mysonx3 said:

While that's true, we should also realize that he was ranked 4th among hitters on the Player Rater last year, behind Goldie, Pollock and Dee Gordon

Correct. Just don't think we should throw out false narratives to push a point. Accuracy is important.

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12 hours ago, brockpapersizer said:

 

Should be noted that in an awful year he went 20 20 80 80.

 

He didn't lose anyone their league, but certainly didn't win any either.

 

While I slightly agree... how many of those bombs were in April? I remember him crushing a decent amount in just that one month, leaving the rest of season HR total pretty ugly.

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10 minutes ago, adifazio27 said:

 

While I slightly agree... how many of those bombs were in April? I remember him crushing a decent amount in just that one month, leaving the rest of season HR total pretty ugly.

Good call. 9 bombs in April, 11 the rest of the way

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8 minutes ago, adifazio27 said:

 

While I slightly agree... how many of those bombs were in April? I remember him crushing a decent amount in just that one month, leaving the rest of season HR total pretty ugly.

Mar/Apr - 9: 96PA

May - 4: 116PA

Jun - 3: 110PA

Jul - 4: 109PA

Aug - 3: 98PA

Sep/Oct - 1: 98PA

 

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19 hours ago, Backdoor Slider said:

 

No he wasn't. ESPN player rater had Bryce ahead of both. 

 

I don't play on ESPN or have any experience with their player rater, but he had something like 30 less RBI than Arenado or Donaldson that year and runs (at least for Donaldson) were lower as well, I believe.  He didn't steal much that year so there wasn't much of a gain if any there either.

 

I own Harper in a dynasty, refuse nearly any trade for him in that league and hope he hits his lofty ceiling, but the unrealistic expectations for him have never really waned.  My primary concern for him is staying healthy in the offseason and not overworking himself.

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7 minutes ago, Skoodog said:

 

I don't play on ESPN or have any experience with their player rater, but he had something like 30 less RBI than Arenado or Donaldson that year and runs (at least for Donaldson) were lower as well, I believe.  He didn't steal much that year so there wasn't much of a gain if any there either.

 

I own Harper in a dynasty, refuse nearly any trade for him in that league and hope he hits his lofty ceiling, but the unrealistic expectations for him have never really waned.  My primary concern for him is staying healthy in the offseason and not overworking himself.

 

Are we talking about 2016?

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12 hours ago, adifazio27 said:

 

While I slightly agree... how many of those bombs were in April? I remember him crushing a decent amount in just that one month, leaving the rest of season HR total pretty ugly.

 

12 hours ago, BlueJaysIn2030 said:

Mar/Apr - 9: 96PA

May - 4: 116PA

Jun - 3: 110PA

Jul - 4: 109PA

Aug - 3: 98PA

Sep/Oct - 1: 98PA

 

 

I see this as a positive, not a negative.  While he isn't going to hit 9 home runs every month, I dont think he hits under 1 a week like he did the rest of the year. To me he clearly either slumped that was exacerbated by injury or just had an injury.

 

What's more of the fluke 9 homers in Mar/Apr or averaging 3 a month for the next 5 months?  I dont think a health Harper hits less than 5 a month very often, and probably has a few big months.

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18 minutes ago, brockpapersizer said:

 

 

I see this as a positive, not a negative.  While he isn't going to hit 9 home runs every month, I dont think he hits under 1 a week like he did the rest of the year. To me he clearly either slumped that was exacerbated by injury or just had an injury.

 

What's more of the fluke 9 homers in Mar/Apr or averaging 3 a month for the next 5 months?  I dont think a health Harper hits less than 5 a month very often, and probably has a few big months.

 

What are your projections for big Bryce this season?

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Just now, Fuzzy_Slippers said:

 

What are your projections for big Bryce this season?

 

I mean it all depends on how you handicap his health, which is really the hardest thing to do.

 

Don't see any reason why he cant go 35-110-110-20 285 with health.  There's a lot safer bets in the first round than Harper, but if draft day is approaching and he's healthy, I'm 100% fine with getting him in the 2nd half of round 1. 

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1 minute ago, brockpapersizer said:

 

I mean it all depends on how you handicap his health, which is really the hardest thing to do.

 

Don't see any reason why he cant go 35-110-110-20 285 with health.  There's a lot safer bets in the first round than Harper, but if draft day is approaching and he's healthy, I'm 100% fine with getting him in the 2nd half of round 1. 

 

That's what I was saying. I don't see myself drafting him if I get picks 1-5, but who knows. If he had a line similar to what you posted, I would be giddy. I think he can do it.

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