Jump to content
NBC Sports EDGE Forums

Luis Severino 2017 Outlook


Squeeealer
 Share

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 292
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

11 minutes ago, jfazz23 said:

im not saying the babip is sustainable...but how do you know his BB rate isnt?

 

people can improve...in ALL walks of life.   hes 23...you are basing your analysis on his numbers as a teen and early 20s....ball players can improve

Because a 0.90 BB/9 rate would be the best BB/9 rate since Phil Hughes' odd season in 2014. Only 13 pitchers over the last 3 seasons combined have had a BB/9 rate under 1.50. I'd be shocked, based on Severino's minor and major league experience if he'll have a BB/9 under 2.25 when it's all said and done this season.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

8 minutes ago, whitekenyan24 said:

Let's actually use stats to try and support an argument here-

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=15890&position=P

 

He's throwing his changeup 8% of the time so far this season, a career low. It's his fastball velocity and movement/spin rate on his pitches that has led to his early season success. 

 

Not saying he isn't going to be a useful pitcher for fantasy but negative regression is due soon. His swinging strike % is at 11.3% which is good (26th for qualified pitchers) , but not indicative of a 35.5% K rate. SwStr % statistically has about a 2X correlation, meaning his K rate should be around 23%, which would bring his K/9 rate down to the 8-ish range.

 

 

 

It's as clear as day 17.1% changeup usage in 2017.  You're looking at 2016.  

 

So while your 2x correlation of SwStr% compared to K% is an easy rough estimate.  Almost all elite bullpen guys are well over 2 to 1 there.  As well as all your top strike out starters as well.  Jose Fernandez with probably the most comparable repertoire awesome fastball but devastating slider was a 14.1% swstr% and he struck out 34.3% of the batters he faced.  So I think Luis Severino will be over 2 x swinging strike% to K%.  Especially if he's freezing guys up by hitting the outside corner with his change.  Cause that's honestly better than a swinging strike in my eyes.

 

So while yeah the K's are going to go down the WHIP is going to go up I don't think it's by as much as you all think.  Also the ERA has to come down right?  Or is that just the price you pay to pitch in Yankee Stadium for half your starts?

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

21 minutes ago, whitekenyan24 said:

Let's actually use stats to try and support an argument here-

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=15890&position=P

 

He's throwing his changeup 8% of the time so far this season, a career low. It's his fastball velocity and movement/spin rate on his pitches that has led to his early season success. 

 

Not saying he isn't going to be a useful pitcher for fantasy but negative regression is due soon. His swinging strike % is at 11.3% which is good (26th for qualified pitchers) , but not indicative of a 35.5% K rate. SwStr % statistically has about a 2X correlation, meaning his K rate should be around 23%, which would bring his K/9 rate down to the 8-ish range.

 

 

 

His fastball velocity is the same as last year. The only change I see in velocity is the change and slider are down about three ticks to 87mph instead of 89-90.

Edited by ryno1980
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, whitekenyan24 said:

Because a 0.90 BB/9 rate would be the best BB/9 rate since Phil Hughes' odd season in 2014. Only 13 pitchers over the last 3 seasons combined have had a BB/9 rate under 1.50. I'd be shocked, based on Severino's minor and major league experience if he'll have a BB/9 under 2.25 when it's all said and done this season.

fair enough.  but you are assuming someone between the ages of 20-22 cant improve.  i dont like that

Edited by jfazz23
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, ryno1980 said:

 

His fastball velocity is the same as last year. The only change I see in velocity is the change and slider are down about three ticks to 87mph instead of 89-90.

dont have stats in front of me, but ive watched his starts....his fastball velocity is up me thinks.

 

do you have a link where it says its the same?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

14 minutes ago, Folarin said:

You don't have to tell me about Severino and Pedro. Go read the first page of the thread where I said I was extremely high on him this year. 

 

 

 

So then why do you keep trying to down play the development of his change up?  You've also spread inaccurate data in your responses to do so.  Misquoting his changeup usage etc.  It seems as if you've picked an argument with me and you're going to do anything to build your winning narrative.  

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, jfazz23 said:

dont have stats in front of me, but ive watched his starts....his fastball velocity is up me thinks.

 

do you have a link where it says its the same?

It definitely is up. Maybe it's the same as when he was a reliever, but that's to be expected.

 

As a rookie he was throwing 94-96. Now he's hitting 98.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, Folarin said:

It definitely is up. Maybe it's the same as when he was a reliever, but that's to be expected.

 

As a rookie he was throwing 94-96. Now he's hitting 98.

yea i agree...hes throwing at reliever speed right now.  i think that is what hes looking at

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, FouLLine said:

 

So then why do you keep trying to down play the development of his change up?  You've also spread inaccurate data in your responses to do so.  Misquoting his changeup usage etc.  It seems as if you've picked an argument with me and you're going to do anything to build your winning narrative.  

 

Except that there are multiple people in this exact thread agreeing with me right now, so how 'inaccurate' is my data.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, FouLLine said:

 

It's as clear as day 17.1% changeup usage in 2017.  You're looking at 2016.  

 

So while your 2x correlation of SwStr% compared to K% is an easy rough estimate.  Almost all elite bullpen guys are well over 2 to 1 there.  As well as all your top strike out starters as well.  Jose Fernandez with probably the most comparable repertoire awesome fastball but devastating slider was a 14.1% swstr% and he struck out 34.3% of the batters he faced.  So I think Luis Severino will be over 2 x swinging strike% to K%.  Especially if he's freezing guys up by hitting the outside corner with his change.  Cause that's honestly better than a swinging strike in my eyes.

 

So while yeah the K's are going to go down the WHIP is going to go up I don't think it's by as much as you all think.  Also the ERA has to come down right?  Or is that just the price you pay to pitch in Yankee Stadium for half your starts?

 

 

You are right about the changeup, apologies for the goof looking at 2016.

 I still stand by everything I said however. You are correct that elite bullpen pitchers generally do exceed the 2:1 correlation but Severino is a starter so it's kind of irrelevant to compare him to the likes of Chapman, Jansen, etc. I also think comparing him to a once in a generation prodigy like Jose Fernandez is setting yourself up for failure. I think the kid has loads of potential and could be a very nice free pickup in leagues. I just think people need to pump the brakes a little and look at the underlying stats which show he's pitching over his head at the moment.

 

The AL East is also a factor to take into account. The ERA should definitely come down some (he's got a 26.7% HR/FB rate!) but Pineda faces the same challenge having Yankee Stadium as his home park.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 minutes ago, jfazz23 said:

dont have stats in front of me, but ive watched his starts....his fastball velocity is up me thinks.

 

do you have a link where it says its the same?

http://www.brooksbaseball.net/velo.php?player=622663&b_hand=-1&gFilt=&pFilt=FA|SI|FC|CU|SL|CS|KN|CH|FS|SB&time=month&minmax=ci&var=mph&s_type=2&startDate=04/01/2016&endDate=10/25/2016

 

Last April as a starter he averaged 96.3 so it is up to 96.7 this year. I shouldn't have said it's the same. 

Just saying I think the bigger drop in the off-speed stuff might be more significant. Making the fastball look faster and putting it where he wants it is improved effective velocity.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

10 minutes ago, jfazz23 said:

fair enough.  but you are assuming someone between the ages of 20-22 cant improve.  i dont like that

This will be the last I add to this conversation but nowhere did I say anything about his age or the inability to not improve as a pitcher. You literally grabbed that out of thin air. Tip of a cap to you for creativity though.

Edited by whitekenyan24
spelling
Link to comment
Share on other sites

17 minutes ago, whitekenyan24 said:

You are right about the changeup, apologies for the goof looking at 2016.

 I still stand by everything I said however. You are correct that elite bullpen pitchers generally do exceed the 2:1 correlation but Severino is a starter so it's kind of irrelevant to compare him to the likes of Chapman, Jansen, etc. I also think comparing him to a once in a generation prodigy like Jose Fernandez is setting yourself up for failure. I think the kid has loads of potential and could be a very nice free pickup in leagues. I just think people need to pump the brakes a little and look at the underlying stats which show he's pitching over his head at the moment.

 

The AL East is also a factor to take into account. The ERA should definitely come down some (he's got a 26.7% HR/FB rate!) but Pineda faces the same challenge having Yankee Stadium as his home park.

 

I'm not saying that he's going to have monster starts every time out and I'm sure he'll have his fair share of blow ups.  But I do feel that his ERA will improve more than his BB/9 and BABIP regress.  His new found change up alone will increase his inning total as it is less stress on the arm than the slider as well as it will help him get out of more jams with induced double play balls.

 

Also I'm not sure why you think comparing him to Jose Fernandez is such a bad thing.  What right handed SP has a more similar arsenal?  Cause I can't think of one.  I'm not saying he's Jose Fernandez either.  But Jose Fernandez (as well as most elite SPs) also are well over the 2 x correlation between swstr% and K%.

 

A lot of the correlation has to do with pitching style and repertoire.  Rich Hill was almost 3 to 1 last year.  Granted he stole a lot strikes (especially first pitch) strikes by throwing his curveball in many situations where guys were looking for fastballs (he threw it around half the time).

 

Pitchers who nibble a lot are well over 2 to 1.  Robbie Ray, Vince Velasquez, Drew Pomeranz, Jon Gray, Lance McCullers, etc.  As when you battle back from being down 2-0, 3-0, or 3-1 constantly to strike someone out they are more inclined to take a strike in those counts if it's not what they were looking for.

 

Honestly the scope of fantasy relevant pitchers are probably all at the 2x correlation if not well over.  At least the best strikeout pitchers are all going to be well over the 2x correlation.  I'm not sure why you don't think Luis Severino can't be as well?  Especially considering what he's done so far into the season.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, ChicksDigTheOPS said:

lots of good data in this thread

anyone have a report on The Eye Test?

worth a speculative add in 12-teamers, or is this a mirage? 

As a Yankee fan, I've watched all 3 games. I would add him right now if you're in a roto league or 12 teamer. His fastball looks electric and as previous posters noted, his slider is slower, throwing hitters off. I own him in one league, drafted f'in Jeanmar Gomez over him in another, and a Yankee fan scooped him. 

 

I think he's in the same tier as Cotton as of now. Undersized pitchers with great stuff. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, bigbluecrew56 said:

Run to go pick him up now if he is available in your twelve teamer.

 

I don't have a claim until Sunday at 9pm... I am typically undisciplined and burn both (2) moves immediately. 

Just gotta hope my leaguemates are asleep at the wheel. 

 

So I take it he looks really good? Must be a huge turnaround, because he's been baaaaad (46 earned runs in 71 innings last year... yikes)

Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 minutes ago, ChicksDigTheOPS said:

 

I don't have a claim until Sunday at 9pm... I am typically undisciplined and burn both (2) moves immediately. 

Just gotta hope my leaguemates are asleep at the wheel. 

 

So I take it he looks really good? Must be a huge turnaround, because he's been baaaaad (46 earned runs in 71 innings last year... yikes)

He has electric stuff and looks to be coming into his own. I think his work with Pedro this off season has really paid off. The guy has a blazing fastball he throws with ease at 97-98. His slider has been nasty and the change up he worked on this off season with Pedro is developing. Hard to find this type of K pitcher on the wire. Take a peek at his last two starts

 

http://m.mlb.com/video/v1299180183/cwsnyy-severino-strikes-out-10-over-eight-frames/?query=Luis+Severino

 

http://m.mlb.com/video/v1282488183/tbnyy-severino-fans-careerhigh-11-batters-in-win/?query=Luis+Severino

Edited by bigbluecrew56
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Pretty sure he debuted a curveball last night and the broadcast teams didn't pick up on it.  Only threw a few but the movement/velocity was distinctly different from his slider. 

Edited by absknicks
Link to comment
Share on other sites

had to do some "research"....

 

if you pause each slider mid-way to the plate, it looks just like a fastball, but then....

 

Video links:

Severino strikes out 11 versus Tampa Bay

Severino strikes out 10 versus White Sox

 

so I'm sitting here drooling over his stuff, with no waiver moves left this week, and Severino sitting idly on the waiver wire.

Then I hatched a plan: am out of waiver moves, but other managers aren't. I sent out feelers to two managers: "hey, I'm out of moves. I'll flip you a 22nd round pick next year if you add + trade someone to my team." Both quickly replied "yes"... free pick for them right? at the cost of almost nothing. They each wanted to know who the player was... I said "I can't tell you unless you formally agree to the deal."

 

A bit unconventional, but well within the realms of legality imo-- and now I own Luis Severino :) 

 

Edited by ChicksDigTheOPS
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Obviously there have been many more positives with this kid than negatives over his first few starts. Some really good analysis and data here that backs up the breakout look that he's got going. Agree with the people who have stated that any "regression" he may have in the BB rate (assuming he's not just improving and this is a new skill set he's showing) or BABIP will be overshadowed by the numerous other positives already outlined. Not sure if anyone has mentioned this, but his current LOB% is also 57.7% which should obviously come up and help drive that ERA down. FB/HR rate also elevated, which has been stated. He may be above average here pitching half his games at Yankee Stadium, but even so it was around 17% last year (10 points lower than currently). 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
 Share


×
×
  • Create New...