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^ And my point is I don't see Chris Davis 2.1, 7.0, 0.8, 5.6, 2.5 WAR upside with Joey Gallo at his current mlb K%, which Mr Davis never exhibited.

 

You get to present your Joey Gallo/Profar Powerpoint presentation to Rick Hahn. I get to present mine. He has to choose.

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29 minutes ago, bbythepier said:

^ And my point is I don't see Chris Davis 2.1, 7.0, 0.8, 5.6, 2.5 WAR upside with Joey Gallo at his current mlb K%, which Mr Davis never exhibited.

 

You get to present your Joey Gallo/Profar Powerpoint presentation to Rick Hahn. I get to present mine. He has to choose.

 

I don't understand that phrasing of "upside... at his current." Upside would suggest improvement no?

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3 minutes ago, taobball said:

 

I don't understand that phrasing of "upside... at his current." Upside would suggest improvement no?

 

You do understand "upside" itself is all encompassing term, right? It has many different degrees, correct? Upside could mean upside to a 1.5 WAR hitter or a 7.0 WAR hitter, but both are upside.

 

Example: One player starts at a 35 K% rate and has an upside to 25 K%. Another player starts at 45 K% and has an upside (through improvement) to 35K%.

 

And I'm done down this rabbit hole. There's nothing I hate more than multi-post pissing contests in threads and I've just entered one.

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21 minutes ago, bbythepier said:

 

You do understand "upside" itself is all encompassing term, right? It has many different degrees, correct? Upside could mean upside to a 1.5 WAR hitter or a 7.0 WAR hitter, but both are upside.

 

Example: One player starts at a 35 K% rate and has an upside to 25 K%. Another player starts at 45 K% and has an upside (through improvement) to 35K%.

 

And I'm done down this rabbit hole. There's nothing I hate more than multi-post pissing contests in threads and I've just entered one.

 

I don't understand why this is a pissing contest... I was just giving my opinion.

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1 hour ago, ryno1980 said:

Aren't the Astros the lead contender to get this deal done anyway?

There's some thought that getting the picks from the Cardinals might loosen the Stros grip on their prospects. We shall  see 

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On 2/3/2017 at 10:22 AM, FouLLine said:

 

Pitchers are a dime a dozen to me.  40 HR power is not so much.  Now quality pitching isn't exactly a dime a dozen but Jose Quintana's production is far easier to find / produce than an annual 40+ HR bat.  I'm not talking once or twice over a career.  I'm talking about the type of power that would net 40+ HRs 4+ times in their career.

 

I love Quintana and I've seen more tape on him than most here.  As I am from Chicago.  But here's the bottom line.  

 

Q is very consistent but he's not a horse.  He has 4 consecutive seasons of 200+ innings which is great.  But the best horses they go 225-240 range for innings. Quintana is barely breaking 200.

 

Q is 28 coming off of his best season.  I really don't see Quintana getting a whole lot better going forward.  Maybe if he gets traded to an NL team he'd get a fantasy boost with a bump in K's.  But Gallo is just getting started in the MLB at 23 if he plays 82 games at The Cell he's a lock for 40 HRs in my eyes.  Now the average could be anywhere from .220 - .270 we have to see how he develops there.  

 

Gallo has lost a lot of value these last few years where I personally expected he would.  Gallo doesn't have the type of game that translates quickly to the MLB.  An extreme tool (power) carried him through the minors.  He against the higher level of competition he needs to continue to develop his pitch recognition and overall hit tool.  

 

But once these other tools catch up to where they need to be Gallo already has a tool that very few guys in the league have... and I mean very few guys in the league.  I'll say Harper, Bryant, Stanton (none of the first 3 most obvious power to me in the league have multiple 40 HR seasons yet, Harper has 1 injuries have prevented Stanton)..... Throw in Chris Davis and maybe even Mark Trumbo after last year.  But there aren't many guys.  I'm even hesitant to put Arenado into this category as he slugged 154 points higher at Coors compared to on the road last year and 124 points higher on his career so his 40 HR ability is just as much a product of environment as it is a product of Arenado's overall power tool itself.  Jose Bautista and EE are on the cusp of this list as well.  But even counting all these guys you're looking at 8-9 guys in the league.  All of which other than Trumbo have essentially been 1st and 2nd rounders in fantasy sense for multiple seasons of their careers.  I am hesitant to throw Mike Trout in here as well but he probably should be?

 

But either way this is the type of power tool we are talking about with Joey Gallo.  We are talking about elite players here.  Yes his other skills need to continue to develop.  Suspect defender, very low average, but the guy can draw a walk and will get on base.

 

Is Jose Quintana really even a top 10 real life pitcher?  His WAR last year had him at 11th exactly (10 if you go off of only qualified but Kershaw in 149 innings still had the highest WAR).  But do I think he's better than Tanaka at 12?  Not even close to me talent wise.  But Tanaka is more injury prone so we can say Q has more value being left handed and a better bill of health.  Is Q better than Strasburg, Lester, Hendricks, Arreita, Hill, deGrom, Stroman, C-Mart, Darvish, Hamels, Teheran, Chris Archer.... The rankings here start to get pretty diluted.  Then you get upside pitchers like McCullers, Rodon, Bauer, Duffy, Nola, Gerrit Cole, Alex Wood, Steven Matz, let's throw Salazar in here too guys who haven't quite been as consistent as Q but guys who have more upside.  Seriously of those "upside" guys which one of their organizations would trade on of those names straight up for Quintana (honestly I think the Sox value Rodon more than Q as look who's on the block and who's not.  Clearly Rodon's youth is a big factor here).  

 

 

So to me while there are many comparable options to Q, there aren't a third as many options comparable to Gallo, who is 5 years younger and a hitter.  Hitters generally make it to the bigs later and take a little longer to develop.  But we are talking about a power tool so great that it is lucky to come along once a draft class.  You don't think every year there aren't multiple pitchers drafted that will be better than Q?  I know it.

 

So long story short Gallo > Quintana here forward in my eyes and it's not even close.  

 

Yes as The White Sox you have to get more than Joey Gallo straight up you really do as you're giving up a far more sure & immediate asset to a ballclub that is trying to go win a Championship now.  So I'd love for The Sox to get Gallo & Brinson but I think Gallo and Profar is a pretty solid start.  Hold out for as much as you possibly can.

  

If you think pitching is a dime a dozen and 40 HR power isn't, you probably weren't paying much attention to this offseason, where any pitcher with an arm still attached to his body got PAID and a guy who hit more than 40 is considering playing in Japan because no one wants him.

Gallo for Q would be a heist by the Rangers

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18 hours ago, mysonx3 said:

If you think pitching is a dime a dozen and 40 HR power isn't, you probably weren't paying much attention to this offseason, where any pitcher with an arm still attached to his body got PAID and a guy who hit more than 40 is considering playing in Japan because no one wants him.

Gallo for Q would be a heist by the Rangers

 

Trust me I pay very close attention.... So no need for your under handed BS as you didn't make a single point with this post.  So please excuse me while I go on an extended rant because I am honestly baffled that this is even being disputed.  But maybe I'm just some random Joey Gallo fan boy that doesn't know what he's talking about?

 

The pitching at the college, minor league, and big league level are all deeper than ever.  Look at how fast these pitchers are making it to the bigs.  Sale and Finnegan the years they were drafted!!!  Making it to the bigs being drafted out of college after 1 full year in the bigs was unheard of back in the 90's early 2000's.  Please site some examples of these guys who went straight from the draft onto a big league roster cause I can't think of any.  Mark Prior & David Price come to mind as guys who made it the following season after being drafted.  Prior came up like 1/3 of the way through Price after looking it up got a 14 pitch cup of coffee.  

 

Elite pitching is hard to come by.  Very good to above average pitching if your organization has any clue as of how to draft and/or develop they will be flush in very good to above average pitching.  Just look at The Rays, haven't had a super high draft pick in a long time (last one was probably Price?) and still constantly crank out quality MLB products.  Many TB products I think will be much better pitchers than Q this year Smyly, Moore, Archer all are equal pitchers with far more upside in my eyes (yes I know some have left TB).  Blake Snell I don't think anyone outside of desperate at the trade deadline would trade him straight up for Q at this point.

 

The thing with Quintana is he is just good enough to not get lost in the obscurity of the average to above average players.  Which exponentially increases his trade value.  But his actual value to the team compared to these average and above average guys doesn't reflect anything close to that of his trade value.  Let me make that point perfectly clear.  That being said these are the kind of guys you want to cash in on when you can when a team is willing to give you a bright future so they can try and win this year and/or maybe next year and you're a rebuilding team you should jump to these opportunities. 

 

 

 

Now back to Gallo, where I'm talking 40+ like the chance to hit 50 multiple times in his career.  Let me make that clear.  Not oh snap dude at age 29 broke out for 40 then never hit more than 33 again in his career.  That's not the type of power we are talking about, that's obvious .... For those paying attention.

 

Secondly, everyone who hit 40 HRs last year will be signed to an MLB team.  Let's be real and not cling to some fringe point to try and build some argumentative narrative (which seems to be a reoccurring thing with you).

 

So here you have some numbers:

 

2016:  8 players hit 40+ Mark Trumbo lead with 47 (these 8 players averaged to 42.25 HRs)

2015:  9 players hit 40+ Chris Davis lead with 47 (these 9 players averaged to 41.88 HRs)

2014:  Only Nelson Cruz hit 40 exactly

2013:  2 guys hit 40 (Chris Davis hit 53)

 

So that's 20 times it's been done in the last 4 seasons.  Only one player in the last 4 seasons has broken 50, really only one player has broken 47.  I want to say Joey Bats was the last player before this to hit 50 back in 2010 or 2009?  So we are looking at 2 guys in the last 7+ years to hit 50+.  Do you realize how many players get drafted in a 7 year span?  Do you realize how many pitchers out of nowhere finally get with that AA pitching coach and really elevates their game to being an above average pitcher?  

 

Not a single season has there been 10 hitters to hit 40 HRs in the last 4 years (much longer than this I'm sure I just stopped looking into after 4 years).  Quintana isn't even a top 10 pitcher.  Some will make an ignorant blanketed argument about his WAR (which really was 11th cause Kershaw didn't quailify but still had the bigger "counting stat" in WAR).  But trust me Q isn't even a top 15 pitcher.  I like Q a lot and do think he is a very good pitcher as well as he is quite the asset.  But take it from someone who's seen as much tape on Q as anyone on these forums, he's not as special as a kid like Gallo.  That will be made clear as soon as this next season. I am nearly certain of this.

 

Let's not be so narrow minded as to compare the value of the remaining career of a top 15 pitcher (at best) in his age 28 season to the value of a potential 40+ annual HR hitting machine who is 23.  Cause it's not even close.  Even if Q never gets injured and pitches 200 innings every season until he retires from now it still won't be close.  Factor in the injury odds and how much greater they are for Q and this gets even more separation.  

 

Joey Gallo is the most exaggerated version of this new breed of hitters we have seen the walk, HR, or K guys.  So the jury is still out on him as some old school of thought think oh shoot he's going to suck as a big leaguer let's get something for him now.  I on the other hand think he will be a very valuable hitter.  This new breed of hitter will continue to become more and more valuable each and every year, especially once there are more cases of bigger success.  Why?  Because pitching gets deeper ever year in the bigs, bullpens get better, more information on matchups and how to shift is out every year.  Hitting for average is going to become harder and harder, strand rates are going to continue to climb and not because of luck but because of pitching depth and increased amount / accuracy of information.  Outfielders are not only positioned better than ever but they are armed with stronger arms than ever, throwing guys out at the plate on a single is easier than it was back in the 70's - 80's.  Remember how much of a freak Vlad Guerrero was with his arm?  Bo Jackson?  There's a lot of OFs with arms like that today.  All of this is negated if a guy is good enough (or lucky enough) to hit a HR, that is automatic runs.  Hits are great and all and I love guys who can rack up the hits but an HR is a sure run if not up to 4 runs.  It's a momentum grabber.  Putting the ball just isn't good enough at the MLB level anymore like it was in little league.  

 

 

I get it The White Sox want to max out their asset and Joey Gallo's value has taken a huge hit lately.  But this season Gallo is going to reclaim a lot of the stock he held as a lower level prospect and if The White Sox don't find a way to get this deal done soon they will regret it.  This I am certain of.  

Edited by FouLLine
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18 hours ago, mysonx3 said:

Gallo for Q would be a heist by the Rangers

 

I mean based on what? Perceived value now? There's nothing definitive about what Gallo could be. It could easily be a "heist" by the White Sox too. 

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1 minute ago, taobball said:

 

I mean based on what? Perceived value now? There's nothing definitive about what Gallo could be. It could easily be a "heist" by the White Sox too. 

 

Very true.... Obviously you know which way I'm leaning.

 

But there's always that chance of a player being a dud ... Or a Jake Fox....  But you've gotta take risk for big reward.  Gallo is a polarizing player for sure but when I see the positive pole vastly outweighing the negative pole I'm good with that risk.  Which I think is fairly minimal at this point in Gallo's career with what he's already shown against the minors at such a young age.  Minor league coaching and minor league competition is better readying players for the MLB more than ever.

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Just now, FouLLine said:

 

Very true.... Obviously you know which way I'm leaning.

 

But there's always that chance of a player being a dud ... Or a Jake Fox....  But you've gotta take risk for big reward.  Gallo is a polarizing player for sure but when I see the positive pole vastly outweighing the negative pole I'm good with that risk.  Which I think is fairly minimal at this point in Gallo's career with what he's already shown against the minors at such a young age.  Minor league coaching and minor league competition is better readying players for the MLB more than ever.

 

I agree, but I think especially if you can get just one or two random arms in there, guys with some electricity but questionable arsenals or guys that are a ways off... your typical ptbnl or slightly above, but the idea of a Profar/Gallo package to me is enticing if that is indeed what the deal being tossed around is because you have two players with the opportunity, IMO, to earn back the value of Quintana and/or much more on their own, so maybe one hits maybe one misses, maybe both hit, or maybe both miss and the arms are nothing, but that deal to me provides the substantial upside I'd be looking for and I'd pull the trigger on it personally, unless of course talking to other GMs suggested to me that the pot could get much sweeter quickly. 

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32 minutes ago, taobball said:

 

I mean based on what? Perceived value now? There's nothing definitive about what Gallo could be. It could easily be a "heist" by the White Sox too. 

It was just my opinion, not meant to be a definitive statement.

Based on the fact that Joey Gallo literally has zero ability to make contact with pitches thrown to him. Like, arguably the worst contact skills of any hitter ever.

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2 hours ago, FouLLine said:

Secondly, everyone who hit 40 HRs last year will be signed to an MLB team.  Let's be real and not cling to some fringe point to try and build some argumentative narrative (which seems to be a reoccurring thing with you).

The point I made (that Carter is considering Japan because no one wants him) is an actual fact.

You said pitching was a dime a dozen and 40 HR hitters were extremely valuable. This offseason proves that MLB teams disagree.

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1 hour ago, mysonx3 said:

The point I made (that Carter is considering Japan because no one wants him) is an actual fact.

You said pitching was a dime a dozen and 40 HR hitters were extremely valuable. This offseason proves that MLB teams disagree.

 

You're getting pitching and where Quintana is ranked among pitchers confused with elite pitching.  Or near elite pitching.  Sorry but Q isn't elite he's not even near elite in my opinion.  Q is very good, Q is one of the best of the very good tier.... But there are a lot of very good pitchers, there will be pitchers who go undrafted in your fantasy leagues that out produce Q.  A lot of these very good pitchers are much younger than Quintana as well. 

 

Chris Carter is trying to get more money lol.  He isn't going to go to Japan.  If you honestly think that a FA in the MLB that just hit 40 HRs is going to go to Japan instead of singing for a couple million (well below what he's going to get) in America you clearly don't know baseball.  Pitchers and catchers haven't even reported many B free agents have yet to be signed lol.  It's how the game works.  Unless Chris Carter wants to take a bad deal he's going to play a little hard ball.... Or go play in Japan for 2-3 million lol.

 

Chris Carter alone if he was arbitration eligible and the arbitrator sided with the team he would still make vastly more money than the highest paid player in Japan....  Why relocate your family to live in a foreign land?  Cause you aren't signed by Feb 5th?  Laughable my man, laughable. 

 

Example:  Kole Clahoun 3rd year arb is projected to make 6.9 million.  Khris Davis 3rd year arb is projected to make 5 million.  Leonys Martin 4th year arb projected to make 6.3 million.   These are 3rd and 4th year guys.

 

Do you realize that a qualifying offer is worth nearly 4 times that of the max contract out in Japan?....  Take some time to actually think about how things work and actually take the time to truly ready and try to understand what people are saying before you blindly jump in to play contrarian.  Max contracts in Japan are like just over 4 million dollars and that's only a handful of guys.   Average MLB salary is pretty equal to max salary in Japan and that's counting league minimum guys.  If you did average salary for guys past arbitration it's drastically higher.

 

Bottom line is please trade me Joey Gallo (plus) for Quintana in a dynasty league.  Or go trade your closest prospect to Joey Gallo for the closest MLB pitcher to Quintana that you can acquire.... I assure you it instantly gets accepted by just about any team in any position in the standings. 

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13 minutes ago, shakestreet said:

Shakestreet's  bottom line --- the White Sox were foolish turning down the Gallo/Profar deal. 

 

I personally would have done the deal .... Unless I knew I could get more.  Which I think The White Sox are holding out in hopes that there's another Adam Eaton deal out there?  That's the only reason I can think of.  Profar and Gallo you'd be set for the rebuild with Moncada and all the arms they've acquired.  They really need more position players at this point.  Quality high upside position players. 

Edited by FouLLine
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I think this team will be better than most expect, but still not very good. Some young guys in the mix who could do some damage.

Rotochamp's lineup and my two cents:

  1. Charlie Tilson OF - 24 year old SB threat. .407OBP in AAA, 15SB (46 in AA the year before). Could be something here.
  2. Yoan Moncada SS - 21 year old potential 5 tool threat. I think, looking at how big this guy is, that he might end up cracking the team after ST. Part of this line of thinking stems from the WhiSox needing to attract fans. What better way to do it than with your star addition in the Sale trade? Obvious opportunity for him to fail/do poorly/etc, but he could come up and do a great job. 
  3. Melky Cabrerea OF - 32 years old, pretty steady guy. I think another 15HR/.290BA/.330OBP season is bankable, and he's a FA for 2018 so he might pick it up a bit. 
  4. Jose Abreu 1B/DH - 30 years old, in the last year of his contract. 2017 will likely be his last change a "mega-deal" for 2018. Down year in 2016 but I think he bounces back and hits 28-30HR with 100RBI/.290BA. He's a good player who had some struggles but did seem to turn it around.
  5. Todd Frazier 3B - Still not 31 yet, the question is about where he goes. IF he stays in Chicago, I think he's a lock for .240 with 35HR. You know what you're getting. Last season was also the first since 2013 that his defence fell apart.
  6. Brett Lawrie 2B - 27 years old and a former top prospect.  If healthy he's a 10/10 guy, but I friggin hate him. He's an arrogant gnat and I wish he didn't play baseball.
  7. Avisail Garcia OF - 25 years old and a former top prospect (#74 in 2012), this guy just hasn't been as good as some people had hoped. He had some solid numbers in the minors (.291/.326/.412 with a .738OPS, 78SB/31CS and 46HR in 586G), but he was never going to be a masher. I think he's capable of 20HR as a ceiling and some better defence (was a +OF in the minors). 
  8. Omar Narvaez C - 24 year old backstop with loads of questions.
  9. Time Anderson 2B - 23 years old, highly regarded prospect, great defence, loads of speed, and has hit for a high average/obp in AA/AAA. Came up and showed some power and speed (9hr/10sb) and I expect more of it. I think he's going to be Lindor Lite and have 5-7HR/15+ sb campaigns with a lower BA/OBP. Loads of upside here.

Then you have some decent bench bats with upside, like Tyler Saladino and Rymer Liriano. 

I def don't think this team is even close to contending, but there are a lot of interesting pieces. I'm expecting a season similar to the Phillies 2016 with room to grow. If they find up shipping out Quintana and Frazier then 2018 will be mighty interesting. 

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9 minutes ago, BlueJaysIn2030 said:

Jose Abreu 1B/DH - 30 years old, in the last year of his contract. 2017 will likely be his last change a "mega-deal" for 2018. Down year in 2016 but I think he bounces back and hits 28-30HR with 100RBI/.290BA. He's a good player who had some struggles but did seem to turn it around.

 

I covered this in the other thread but Abreu opted out of his contract and into arbitration, meaning he has three years of team control remaining, thru 2019. He wont be a FA until 2020. 

 

Also Tim Anderson isnt in the same stratosphere as Lindor when it comes to the stick. 

Edited by taobball
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3 minutes ago, taobball said:

Also Tim Anderson isnt in the same stratosphere as Lindor when it comes to the stick. 

Didn't say he was. I see a lot of similarities defensively, however, and I think he's totally "Lindor Lite"... Less power, more speed. Lower ceiling in BA/OBP, but again... more speed. Lindor is the only guy at SS/2B I can think of, right now, who is in that 12-18HR range with 10-20SB speed. Anderson is similar, but lower HR and more speed.

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Just now, BlueJaysIn2030 said:

Didn't say he was. I see a lot of similarities defensively, however, and I think he's totally "Lindor Lite"... Less power, more speed. Lower ceiling in BA/OBP, but again... more speed. Lindor is the only guy at SS/2B I can think of, right now, who is in that 12-18HR range with 10-20SB speed. Anderson is similar, but lower HR and more speed.

 

Yeah it's not that I don't get what you're saying but I still don't like the comparison really at all. What makes Lindor Lindor on the offensive side of the ball is his excellent bat-to-ball skills and his ability to hit for contact. Anderson's always been a 20+ K% guy in the minors. If you add Lindor's rookie and sophomore campaign's K% you get 28.7%. Tim's was 27.1% last year. So I don't think the skillsets are all that comparable. Anderson also has at the very least considerably more stolen base UPSIDE than Lindor does.. he's much faster.

 

So it's not that I don't get the comp in terms of power and speed but I just don't think they're all that similar players is all. 

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