David Johnson 2017 Outlook

[SpartanEric 727]

33 minutes ago, iretirefromfantasy said:

So are we holding or dropping?

 

This is entirely dependent upon what type of league you're in. 

 

Personally the bench is too small to navigate all the bye weeks and keep a guy for 9 weeks. I'd probably drop.

 

But if I'm 1-0, have 2 other good RBs, Id probably stash him.

[burninglegs 10,836]

Should have just cut the bum limb off and replaced it with a bionic one. Got fantasy football teams to play for. Weak sauce. 

 

[KennyWoo 3,323]

29 minutes ago, iretirefromfantasy said:

So are we holding or dropping?

 

Hold for now, but many will be forced to drop him when byes start coming around.  Let's look at a couple of these massive bye weeks.  Week 5 has Atlanta, New Orleans, Washington, and Denver.  Each team has 2-4 must start players on it on a given week.  That's a lot of holes to fill.  Can you hold a deadwood player that week?  Week 8 has Green Bay, Jacksonville, the Rams, the Giants, Tennessee, and Arizona.  Each of those teams has a player drafted in the first two rounds of drafts.  Can you weather that?  Week 9 has New England and Pittsburgh (!!) plus Chicago, Cleveland, the Chargers, and Minnesota.  

 

It is very, very easy to say right now "hold," because right now you have a roster full of healthy players, all of whom are available to you now through October 5th, and the waiver wire is stocked with healthy guys without byes for awhile too.  But soon you'll have to look yourself in the mirror.  If you have a league with no IR spot and a 5- or 6-man bench, it's going to hurt you badly to carry this guy including through the byes.

 

If you see yourself dropping him when the byes come around, just drop him now or try to trade him for some useful piece now to someone who wants to hold him.  I know it's hard to get zero or ten cents on the dollar the #1 pick right now, if you don't, will your season be over by the time Johnson comes back (if he does)?

[Conscious Pilot 294]

I'm going to see what scraps I can get in a trade.

 

if nothing flies, I'm dropping him. The Cards are going to be out of the playoff hunt by then, so there will be no reason to rush him back. Cutting my losses now so that I can be best positioned to jumping on the next big thing

 

FML

 

[shakestreet 4,103]

this injury hurts 

 

remember the Zeke thread where we those DJ/Zeke owners think they were king sh

[dabeesta17 2,509]

1 minute ago, Conscious Pilot said:

I'm going to see what scraps I can get in a trade.

 

if nothing flies, I'm dropping him. The Cards are going to be out of the playoff hunt by then, so there will be no reason to rush him back. Cutting my losses now so that I can be best positioned to jumping on the next big thing

 

FML

 

 

Though this is highly likely, you, I and nobody else knows this as a fact. Now if the Cardinals lose to the JV Colts this week, then yes; your assertion is very likely accurate.

[phizzics 1,007]

Sorry guys. We can't have a "Where Zeke should have been drafted." debate in this thread. Back to the DJ discussion...

[boltup15 1,471]

1 hour ago, Iron-cock said:

 

Only 5 players in the past 27 seasons had Rushing Att >= 290 and Receptions >= 75.  Of those 5, only 1 played 16 games and didn’t regress.  That player is:

 

LaDanian Tomlinson

 

When a player is getting tackled 400 times in one season, it’s hard to expect their body to recover, even with a full offseason of rest (or rehab in DJ’s case).
 

 

Exactly. RB's get hit 400 times. They pass block, they run, they catch. It's not easy to withstand all that contact. I don't think Bell is any more injury prone than DJ who is any more injury prone than McCoy and so on. It's a waste of time.

[Gohawks 10,148]

 

 

2 minutes ago, boltup15 said:

 

Exactly. RB's get hit 400 times. They pass block, they run, they catch. It's not easy to withstand all that contact. I don't think Bell is any more injury prone than DJ who is any more injury prone than McCoy and so on. It's a waste of time.

Basically, take WRs early on so you don't have to cry yourself to sleep by mid season or in this case, week 2.

[boltup15 1,471]

1 minute ago, Gohawks said:

 

 

Basically, take WRs early on so you don't have to cry yourself to sleep by mid season or in this case, week 2.

 

Zero RB. There's a reason why the strategy works so well in ppr. 

[typh00n2k 18]

i feel bad for dj owners... the cardinals aint doing jack without him meaning they won't bring him back after 2-3 months with nothing to play for... my condolences.

[Gohawks 10,148]

1 minute ago, boltup15 said:

 

Zero RB. There's a reason why the strategy works so well in ppr. 

The problem is in standard it's so tough to not have a high end RB.  Still, years where I start of WR/WR I've made the playoffs 100% of the time. Once in the playoffs though a top 3 RB wins leagues.

 

Which is why Johnson is a hold.

[ralphg13 386]

Unless you are in a league with a deep bench he is safe to drop in redraft leagues. Don't miss out on a chance to add a healthy guy with a shot at being a legit contributor to your team. Decent chance DJ doesn't play again this year. 

[Gohawks 10,148]

Also, I think it's ridiculous to say they won't bring him back. It's a wrist injury not a hamstring or knee where it's super easy to re injure and doesn't really fully heal for a while. While they won't have much to play for there's no reason for him to miss the last 5 weeks just because. Otherwise, all these other teams would be playing 3rd stringers by week 10.

[sasnumberonefan 755]

I'm no doctor, but shouldn't a dislocation be -easier- to heal than, say, a broken or fractured bone? Anyone smarter than me care to weigh in on the topic? 

[owenmills 5,327]

9 minutes ago, Gohawks said:

Also, I think it's ridiculous to say they won't bring him back. It's a wrist injury not a hamstring or knee where it's super easy to re injure and doesn't really fully heal for a while. While they won't have much to play for there's no reason for him to miss the last 5 weeks just because. Otherwise, all these other teams would be playing 3rd stringers by week 10.

 

I think teams would love to be able to shut their star players down in the last month of the season once they're out of contention and start posturing for a good draft pick. Obviously the league would never let them do that because it would be terrible for the entertainment value. But, if your stud is recovering from a serious injury you have a built-in excuse to take your sweet time. I'm not saying he won't play again but Arizona definitely could milk it.

[purpdrankplaya 68]

I think he is a hold if you are able to for sure. I am not ready to write off the Cardinals after just one week no matter how bad they played. This week against the Colts should be very telling.

Edited September 12, 2017 by purpdrankplaya

[boltup15 1,471]

20 minutes ago, Gohawks said:

The problem is in standard it's so tough to not have a high end RB.  Still, years where I start of WR/WR I've made the playoffs 100% of the time. Once in the playoffs though a top 3 RB wins leagues.

 

Which is why Johnson is a hold.

 

Agreed, in standard I'm of the opinion you should always draft rb heavy. 

Edited September 12, 2017 by boltup15

[Iron-cock 10,337]

2 hours ago, Iron-cock said:

 

Only 5 players in the past 27 seasons had Rushing Att >= 290 and Receptions >= 75.

 

 

50 minutes ago, boltup15 said:

 

Exactly. RB's get hit 400 times.

 

Actually, most RB's don't get up to 400 rushes and recs, and if they do the odds of repeating are nearly zero.  That was the point.

 

[TTo34 2,956]

5 minutes ago, Iron-cock said:

 

 

Actually, most RB's don't get up to 400 rushes and recs, and if they do the odds of repeating are nearly zero.  That was the point.

 

 

I think he was including pass blocking (hits) in that number.  Which makes 400 certainly achievable.

[Iron-cock 10,337]

1 minute ago, TTo34 said:

 

I think he was including pass blocking (hits) in that number.  Which makes 400 certainly achievable.

 

Right, which means you move the number up for everyone.  At the end of the day he was taking a lot of hits, and volume is a good predictor of injury.

 

Edited September 12, 2017 by Iron-cock

[jspeed 342]

The one league where I drafted DJ, I went RB-RB-RB even though we play 3 WRs.  I thought I had screwed up afterward, but now I'm thankful that I did that.

[boltup15 1,471]

32 minutes ago, Iron-cock said:

 

 

Actually, most RB's don't get up to 400 rushes and recs, and if they do the odds of repeating are nearly zero.  That was the point.

 

 

Yes... was including the hits they take from pass blocking. Not a single rb had 400 touches last season...

Edited September 12, 2017 by boltup15

[street sharks 3,267]

Why are people quick to assume the Cards just shut him down?

 

I could see if it was a leg injury, but it's a wrist injury. As far as football injuries go, it's probably one of the "better" injuries to sustain.

 

He'll still be able to run and stay in shape, and I don't doubt his ability to jump right back into game action.

 

I feel bad for people in deep leagues since talent is spread more thinly, but in 10 teamers you should be able to manage and sneak into playoffs and hopefully DJ is back by then. It's going to suck to lose a bench spot, but it's going to suck even more if you drop or trade for cents on the dollar and he is back by playoffs.

Edited September 12, 2017 by street sharks

[tts42572 920]

9 minutes ago, street sharks said:

Why are people quick to assume the Cards just shut him down?

 

I could see if it was a leg injury, but it's a wrist injury. As far as football injuries go, it's probably one of the "better" injuries to sustain.

 

He'll still be able to run and stay in shape, and I don't doubt his ability to jump right back into game action.

 

I feel bad for people in deep leagues since talent is spread more thinly, but in 10 teamers you should be able to manage and sneak into playoffs and hopefully DJ is back by then. It's going to suck to lose a bench spot, but it's going to suck even more if you drop or trade for cents on the dollar and he is back by playoffs.

 

Well....I think many are assuming the Cards will be terrible without DJ.   If they're out of the division and playoff picture when he's ready to return, why bring him back?

 

This is just terrible.  I own DJ in one league and I think I'd really rather just have him out for the year so I could comfortably drop and move on.

 

Is it time to label DJ as injury prone yet?  The knee last year and now this?  It's probably too early for that as this is a pretty fluky injury but it's going to take awhile for me to get over the sting of this injury.