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David Johnson 2017 Outlook


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I get the worry and want to agree that the coach could screw up DJ's value.  But just go look at Arians history in Zona.  Its not like it was his play calling or scheme that made DJ great.  Every other RB under Arians was barely worth using in a flex spot.  Then all of sudden DJ gets the job and he's the best RB in fantasy.  In my personal opinion he is the most talented RB in football and its not that close.  When Bell has been out Dwill was still a top 5 Rb,  When Zeke was out dallas still average around 5 yds per carry.  When DJ goes out Zona run game goes to s---

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28 minutes ago, kdko said:

 

But Jeff Fisher gets no credit for Gurley's rookie year?  Get out of here.

 

Doesn't that make it worse?  The guy flashed greatness and then Fischer did zilch with it the next year lol.

 

Either way, to say a coach has no effect is 100% incorrect. If the cardinals hired Fischer I think a lot of DJ owners would groan very loudly.

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12 minutes ago, Flynfiesta6 said:

 

Doesn't that make it worse?  The guy flashed greatness and then Fischer did zilch with it the next year lol.

 

Either way, to say a coach has no effect is 100% incorrect. If the cardinals hired Fischer I think a lot of DJ owners would groan very loudly.

Lets not forget Gurley was coming off a offseason where everybody was telling him how great he was.  There were rumors that he wasn't as focused on offseason training as he should be.  He wouldn't of been the first player to have a sophomore slump because he took his talent for granted.  Trust me I think Fisher is a horrible coach but I also think Gurley went alittle to hollywood and needed to be humbled to achieve his true greatness.

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6 minutes ago, youngrice said:

Lets not forget Gurley was coming off a offseason where everybody was telling him how great he was.  There were rumors that he wasn't as focused on offseason training as he should be.  He wouldn't of been the first player to have a sophomore slump because he took his talent for granted.  Trust me I think Fisher is a horrible coach but I also think Gurley went alittle to hollywood and needed to be humbled to achieve his true greatness.

 

Well, as true as that may or may not be... Its not the point.  The point is a coach can have a huge effect on any player, not just a RB.

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8 minutes ago, Flynfiesta6 said:

 

Well, as true as that may or may not be... Its not the point.  The point is a coach can have a huge effect on any player, not just a RB.

Well his rookie year he averaged almost 17 ppg ppr in his 12 starts.  On average that was good enough for the second best RB in fantasy behind Freeman.  With the same coaching staff as his second year.

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5 minutes ago, youngrice said:

Well his rookie year he averaged almost 17 ppg ppr in his 12 starts.  On average that was good enough for the second best RB in fantasy behind Freeman.  With the same coaching staff as his second year.

 

And averaged 21+ in 15 starts with a different coaching staff this year.  Are you saying he would have put up those same stats with Fischer still coaching the team?

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1 hour ago, Flynfiesta6 said:

 

And averaged 21+ in 15 starts with a different coaching staff this year.  Are you saying he would have put up those same stats with Fischer still coaching the team?

Lol.  Just read what I said.  At no point did I even come close to saying that.

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21 minutes ago, youngrice said:

Lol.  Just read what I said.  At no point did I even come close to saying that.

 

I did.  Again, you're missing the point. 

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1 hour ago, Flynfiesta6 said:

 

I did.  Again, you're missing the point. 

No your missing the point.  You wouldn't of been making a huge statement about Gurley if he was coming off his rookie season numbers.  All spell it out for you.  Sure Fisher is a horrible coach and depressed Gurley's numbers.  But I also put part of the blame on Gurley going hollywood and believe he needed to fail to truly learn to be great.  I do not believe last years version of Gurley would of had close to the production he had this year in any system.  

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16 hours ago, youngrice said:

No your missing the point.  You wouldn't of been making a huge statement about Gurley if he was coming off his rookie season numbers.  All spell it out for you.  Sure Fisher is a horrible coach and depressed Gurley's numbers.  But I also put part of the blame on Gurley going hollywood and believe he needed to fail to truly learn to be great.  I do not believe last years version of Gurley would of had close to the production he had this year in any system.  

 

A) Lol, so you admit that a coach can have an affect on a players numbers. Perfect, now you got the point.

B ) How do you know if any of those reports are real, you yourself admitted that they were rumors, not facts.

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3 hours ago, Flynfiesta6 said:

 

A) Lol, so you admit that a coach can have an affect on a players numbers. Perfect, now you got the point.

B ) How do you know if any of those reports are real, you yourself admitted that they were rumors, not facts.

A. Lol what? I admitted Fisher was a horrible coach the whole time.  

B. More times then not when rumors questioning a players offseason commitment they end up being true.  I'm inclined to believe the rumors considering he had more commercials then 10 yd rushes in his second season.

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1 hour ago, youngrice said:

A. Lol what? I admitted Fisher was a horrible coach the whole time.  

B. More times then not when rumors questioning a players offseason commitment they end up being true.  I'm inclined to believe the rumors considering he had more commercials then 10 yd rushes in his second season.

 

Cheese and Rice!!  Again, you are missing my point. Ill just spell it out so we can stop this...

 

I quoted someone who stated that "DJ is so good that it doesn't matter who the coach is". 

 

I responded by saying that it absolutely matters, whoever the Cardinals hire that individual will have a direct effect on his 2018 numbers whether it be positive or negative.

 

I gave a real life example of Fischer and Gurley.  I wasn't saying Gurley was bad or he is only good because of McVay or he wasn't as good his second year soley because of Fisher.  I was merely using that as an example as to what effect a coach can have on a players results.  I'm not saying that was the sole reason for Gurley's sophomore slump but his resurgence this year speaks more to McVays calling plays than what he did in the offseason before this season or last imo.  

 

Hopefully that helps.

 

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4 minutes ago, Flynfiesta6 said:

 

Cheese and Rice!!  Again, you are missing my point. Ill just spell it out so we can stop this...

 

I quoted someone who stated that "DJ is so good that it doesn't matter who the coach is". 

 

I responded by saying that it absolutely matters, whoever the Cardinals hire that individual will have a direct effect on his 2018 numbers whether it be positive or negative.

 

I gave a real life example of Fischer and Gurley.  I wasn't saying Gurley was bad or he is only good because of McVay or he wasn't as good his second year soley because of Fisher.  I was merely using that as an example as to what effect a coach can have on a players results.  I'm not saying that was the sole reason for Gurley's sophomore slump but his resurgence this year speaks more to McVays calling plays than what he did in the offseason before this season or last imo.  

 

Hopefully that helps.

 

I give up.  Your fiesta must be going day and night

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  • 2 weeks later...

What every DJ owner had been waiting for :)

 

David Johnson (wrist) is back to 100 percent health.

Johnson is finally healthy after his injury cost him all but one game and 17 touches. It will be an offseason of change for Johnson, who must adjust to a new coach and is headed into the final year of his rookie contract. Although Bruce Arians relies on three-down bellcows to an unusual degree, whomever replaces him will do the same with Johnson. Johnson turned 26 in December.
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1 hour ago, dashoe said:

DJ has a ton of question marks going into next season. No way you take this guy as a  top5 pick. 

He drops to tier2  for me with  hunt-fournette-ingram.  

I hope your right.  I will gladly take him at 4 or latter.  I can't see taking him over Gurley, Zeke or Bell but passing on him after that is foolish.

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43 minutes ago, youngrice said:

I hope your right.  I will gladly take him at 4 or latter.  I can't see taking him over Gurley, Zeke or Bell but passing on him after that is foolish.

Snake draft I wouldnt take him in the 1st, 2nd rd is where he is in my book.  Ariz card team  and his situation need to be analyzed. I find the mistake of many people who draft is they place too much weight on a players talent and not enough on his situation. An offense is a system and the player is one of 11 + the coaches in that system. Bell-zeke-Gurley are talented members of a great systems. DJ used to be in a great system for his talent but now that system is gone and the replacement remains to be seen. 

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7 minutes ago, dashoe said:

Snake draft I wouldnt take him in the 1st, 2nd rd is where he is in my book.  Ariz card team  and his situation need to be analyzed. I find the mistake of many people who draft is they place too much weight on a players talent and not enough on his situation. An offense is a system and the player is one of 11 + the coaches in that system. Bell-zeke-Gurley are talented members of a great systems. DJ used to be in a great system for his talent but now that system is gone and the replacement remains to be seen. 

Tell me how DJ was in a great system like Bell or Zeke??  Dwill put up top 7 numbers in Bells absence the past couple of years, Mcfadden had a top 12 season before Zeke's rookie year and Dallas average over 5 yds per carry when Zeke missed time this year.  All Zona's RB's besides DJ have been dumpster fires during Arians years in Zona.  If anything history would show Zona's system was more of a determent for RB's.

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44 minutes ago, youngrice said:

Tell me how DJ was in a great system like Bell or Zeke??  Dwill put up top 7 numbers in Bells absence the past couple of years, Mcfadden had a top 12 season before Zeke's rookie year and Dallas average over 5 yds per carry when Zeke missed time this year.  All Zona's RB's besides DJ have been dumpster fires during Arians years in Zona.  If anything history would show Zona's system was more of a determent for RB's.

 

I'm going to let you figure out why your counter argument is based on a false equivalency that offenses are all created equal, systems are static not dynamic and parts of a system are fungible becuase it seems as if you are not grasping the concept of systems. A system is a group of parts that work together as a complex whole so if you have the right parts you have an effective system, u get the wrong parts the system is ineffective. So obviously their system is not dependent on a stud rb but that doest mean a talented rb cannot perform better than the avg in their system. 

 

The cards were hardly basement dwellers as a team or as an offense so i'm really not going to dive into the minutiae of that and will simply post their season records if u wish to explore the particulars. Arians and Palmer era started in 2013, DJ made the team in 2015 and took over as lead in 2016 so lets see the cards team record

 

2013  10-6  3rd NFC West  - 17th ranked offense

2014  11-5  2nd NFC West  - 24th ranked offense (Palmer played 6 games)

2015  13-3  1st NFC West  - 2nd ranked offense

2016  7-8-1  2nd NFC West - 6th ranked offense

2017  8-8      3rd NFC West - 25th ranked offense (DJ played 1 game, Palmer 7 games)

 

So quick scan you can gather that the cards were a good team and offense with and without DJ, ergo they have a good system. Also their 2 worst offensive rankings correlate heavily with Carson lost for the season. 

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5 hours ago, dashoe said:

 

I'm going to let you figure out why your counter argument is based on a false equivalency that offenses are all created equal, systems are static not dynamic and parts of a system are fungible becuase it seems as if you are not grasping the concept of systems. A system is a group of parts that work together as a complex whole so if you have the right parts you have an effective system, u get the wrong parts the system is ineffective. So obviously their system is not dependent on a stud rb but that doest mean a talented rb cannot perform better than the avg in their system. 

 

The cards were hardly basement dwellers as a team or as an offense so i'm really not going to dive into the minutiae of that and will simply post their season records if u wish to explore the particulars. Arians and Palmer era started in 2013, DJ made the team in 2015 and took over as lead in 2016 so lets see the cards team record

 

2013  10-6  3rd NFC West  - 17th ranked offense

2014  11-5  2nd NFC West  - 24th ranked offense (Palmer played 6 games)

2015  13-3  1st NFC West  - 2nd ranked offense

2016  7-8-1  2nd NFC West - 6th ranked offense

2017  8-8      3rd NFC West - 25th ranked offense (DJ played 1 game, Palmer 7 games)

 

So quick scan you can gather that the cards were a good team and offense with and without DJ, ergo they have a good system. Also their 2 worst offensive rankings correlate heavily with Carson lost for the season. 

What?? they were a top 7 offense with DJ and at best a top 17th offense without.  How is the 17th, 24th and 25th offense showing they have a good offense?? also just look at the top RB in those systems.  You just showed DJ was the biggest factor.  Thank you.

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34 minutes ago, youngrice said:

What?? they were a top 7 offense with DJ and at best a top 17th offense without.  How is the 17th, 24th and 25th offense showing they have a good offense?? also just look at the top RB in those systems.  You just showed DJ was the biggest factor.  Thank you.

 

Wow that was your takeaway? :o 

DJ wasnt the everydown rb they had their best offensive output and team record and you think he was the biggest factor and not Palmer? :blink:

 

let me flesh it out for you

The cards have always had a top 15 passing offense during the palmer/arinas era and only had a top 15  rushing offense  once which was DJ's rookie season. 

 

Offense Rank

2013  pass #13   rush #23

2014 pass #14   rush#31

2015 pass#2     rush#8

2016 pass #9    rush #18

2017 pass#15 rush #30

 

Looks like Cards best team offense and win record was when DJ and chris johnson were both in the backfield. 

 

The cards had a good offense prior to DJ taking over as an every down rb ergo they had a good system. DJ with his talent performed better than the avg rb would in that system but regardless it's was/is a good offense with or without him because they can pass the ball effectively which has always been my point. So contrary to your view the cards didnt suck as an offense without DJ

Edited by dashoe
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10 minutes ago, dashoe said:

 

Wow that was your takeaway? :o 

DJ wasnt the everydown rb they had their best offensive output and team record and you think he was the biggest factor and not Palmer? :blink:

 

let me flesh it out for you

The cards have always had a top 15 passing offense during the palmer/arinas era and only had a top 15  rushing offense  once which was DJ's rookie season. 

 

Offense Rank

2013  pass #13   rush #23

2014 pass #14   rush#31

2015 pass#2     rush#8

2016 pass #9    rush #18

2017 pass#15 rush #30

 

Looks like Cards best team offense and win record was when DJ and chris johnson were both in the backfield. 

 

The cards had a good offense prior to DJ taking over as an every down rb ergo they had a good system. DJ with his talent performed better than the avg rb would in that system but regardless it's was/is a good offense with or without him because they can pass the ball effectively which has always been my point. So contrary to your view the cards didnt suck as an offense without DJ

Really??  I actually never said Palmer wasn't a factor in Zona success.  All I said was Arians offense wasn't the reason DJ had success and mentioned how every other RB in the system was at best a low end flex, in the same offense DJ was the best RB in fantasy. Everything you keep saying enforces what I say.  What does Zona offensive ranks have to do with anything.  Simple as this Arians system was toxic for all RB's in it besides DJ.  Unlike Zeke or Bell.

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