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Todd Gurley 2017 Season Outlook


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18 minutes ago, dabeesta17 said:

 

He had the same offensive line, same coach, same scheme and basically the same team in 2015 and 2016. The only thing different was Gurley's performance once defenses figured out (around Week 8 2015) all they have to do is get in front of him. He won't be juking anyone, stiff-arming anyone, or running anyone over. Its either a wide-open hole right in front of him so he can run in a straight line, or its a 2-3 yard gain. That's what we saw on 278 carries in 2016.

 If you don't think he can juke, jump over, or straight run past you, I don't think we've seen the same explosive runs.  Sure I've seen him get stuffed tons, I've also seen runs that not many others can make.  Like everything else I've been saying, this is just my opinion.  

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Gurley's best attribute is his ability to take it to the house when given good blocking. 

 

The problem is, he doesn't have great vision or patience, he isn't great at making people miss, he really doesn't run people over and he isn't a great receiver. 

 

 

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11 minutes ago, PolarBear said:

Gurley's best attribute is his ability to take it to the house when given good blocking. 

 

The problem is, he doesn't have great vision or patience, he isn't great at making people miss, he really doesn't run people over and he isn't a great receiver. 

 

 

This is just 100% flat out wrong and a display of insane recency bias. 

 

You can say Gurley has been a scrub. You can say that defenses figured out how to stop him. You can say that he is weak mentally. However, saying that he can't make things happen is false.

 

Yards and TDs can be a fluke. Go watch his rookie season highlights. He was jumping over people, dragging tacklers, and putting on moves. Last year he did none of that. I chalk it up to the same reason I believe A-ROB sucked as I mentioned somewhere earlier. When your team sucks the effort is often times not there like it was before. However, saying that he is obviously JAG that is 100% dependant on blocking is just incorrect.

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Just now, Gohawks said:

This is just 100% flat out wrong and a display of insane recency bias. 

 

You can say Gurley has been a scrub. You can say that defenses figured out how to stop him. You can say that he is weak mentally. However, saying that he can't make things happen is false.

 

Yards and TDs can be a fluke. Go watch his rookie season highlights. He was jumping over people, dragging tacklers, and putting on moves. Last year he did none of that. I chalk it up to the same reason I believe A-ROB sucked as I mentioned somewhere earlier. When your team sucks the effort is often times not there like it was before. However, saying that he is obviously JAG that is 100% dependant on blocking is just incorrect.

 

Didn't say he was a JAG. Gurley is physically, one of the best RB's in the league.  He is really good once he builds up speed and momentum. If you give him a crease, he will hurt you.  If you allow him to build momentum and you take bad angles, he will drag you with him.   The problem with being that kind of RB is that your performance is tied to the ability of your offensive line giving you decent blocking.  

 

He lacks patience at times to wait for blocks to develop. His vision is average. He is an average receiver and he really doesn't do much in the way of evading tackles.  These are attributes that can help you contribute when your line is bad. Gurley doesn't have them. 

 

 

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1 hour ago, PolarBear said:

 

Didn't say he was a JAG. Gurley is physically, one of the best RB's in the league.  He is really good once he builds up speed and momentum. If you give him a crease, he will hurt you.  If you allow him to build momentum and you take bad angles, he will drag you with him.   The problem with being that kind of RB is that your performance is tied to the ability of your offensive line giving you decent blocking.  

 

He lacks patience at times to wait for blocks to develop. His vision is average. He is an average receiver and he really doesn't do much in the way of evading tackles.  These are attributes that can help you contribute when your line is bad. Gurley doesn't have them. 

 

 

This I agree with. It seemed like you were saying he is sort of like L. Murray where unless there is a gaping hole he is useless. 

 

He is no Bell where he waits for things to develop and he is no Lynch where he can destroy everyone in his way anywhere and anytime.

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8 hours ago, PolarBear said:

Gurley's best attribute is his ability to take it to the house when given good blocking. 

 

The problem is, he doesn't have great vision or patience, he isn't great at making people miss, he really doesn't run people over and he isn't a great receiver. 

 

 

 

How can anyone say he isn't a great receiver?  I'd like to see a percentage of downs he was in on that were passes last year.  He caught 43/58 passes in 13 games in 2015 for an avg of 7 ypc and 21/26 for an avg of 9 ypc.  Was also an excellent reciever in college.  Has actually been PRAISED all camp for his reveling ability and how the new staff is focused on keeping him on the field for 3 downs.  You guys honestly think a brand new staff is gonna hedge their bet on a scrub with no talent, weak minded, and disinterested?  Coaching is a permanent carousel in today's game, I'm going to bet that they aren't trying to get an avg to below avg player more touches to save their jobs.  Their is a reason he was drafted top 10 after a knee injury in a pas happy league.  Again, you guys can hate all you want on him last year and of course it's warranted.  But if you can sit here and look at Gurley and honestly tell me that you think he isn't a top 5 talented RB, I just can't agree with your evaluation of talent.  No hard feelings, we just flat out don't, and will never agree.  And I bet that more NFL associates are on my side. 

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5 minutes ago, Triple Crown25 said:

 

How can anyone say he isn't a great receiver?  I'd like to see a percentage of downs he was in on that were passes last year.  He caught 43/58 passes in 13 games in 2015 for an avg of 7 ypc and 21/26 for an avg of 9 ypc.  Was also an excellent reciever in college.  Has actually been PRAISED all camp for his reveling ability and how the new staff is focused on keeping him on the field for 3 downs.  You guys honestly think a brand new staff is gonna hedge their bet on a scrub with no talent, weak minded, and disinterested?  Coaching is a permanent carousel in today's game, I'm going to bet that they aren't trying to get an avg to below avg player more touches to save their jobs.  Their is a reason he was drafted top 10 after a knee injury in a pas happy league.  Again, you guys can hate all you want on him last year and of course it's warranted.  But if you can sit here and look at Gurley and honestly tell me that you think he isn't a top 5 talented RB, I just can't agree with your evaluation of talent.  No hard feelings, we just flat out don't, and will never agree.  And I bet that more NFL associates are on my side. 

 

 

Amen. Gurley for Prez 2017.

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1 hour ago, Triple Crown25 said:

You guys honestly think a brand new staff is gonna hedge their bet on a scrub with no talent, weak minded, and disinterested?  Coaching is a permanent carousel in today's game, I'm going to bet that they aren't trying to get an avg to below avg player more touches to save their jobs.  Their is a reason he was drafted top 10 after a knee injury in a pas happy league.  Again, you guys can hate all you want on him last year and of course it's warranted.  But if you can sit here and look at Gurley and honestly tell me that you think he isn't a top 5 talented RB, I just can't agree with your evaluation of talent.  No hard feelings, we just flat out don't, and will never agree.  And I bet that more NFL associates are on my side. 

 

No I do not believe that. Les Snead and Stan Kroenke drafted Gurley and Goff; and bought in this young, 30-year-old coach who is going to take orders from them and like it. Whether McVay likes Gurley and Goff as players doesn't matter. He has to carry out his bosses wishes; the guys who gave this 30-year-old a chance. If the CEO and GM want Gurley to get touches, the coach will oblige or be fired. Pretty simple.

 

No hate involved here. Just the viewing and evaluation of 278 carries by Gurley in 2016; a very good, very representative sample size for evaluating talent particularly since Gurley had that good 4-game stretch in 2015 that his supporters can't let go of, with the same O-line, coach and scheme from 2016. I'd also strongly disagree with your last statement.

Edited by dabeesta17
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No hate involved here either.  Obviously everyone has their own opinion, and ours differ.  How can someone say that his 2015 numbers aren't representative but at the same time can argue that his 2016 is? Sure a good 4 game stretch helps, but that's how stats work.  You get rewarded for great games, just as everyone is bashing his poor ones.  The rams were a better overall team in 2015 compared to 2016.  That's just fact.  I 100% can see validity in everyone's negativity on gurley, it is surely supported and warranted.  I just don't agree that he's untalented with poor vision and zero ability to juke or dodge tacklers.  Those things simply are not true.  I appreciate the quality and objective conversation here, one of the reasons I love these forums.  I'm going to back away now and keep the thread open for other input.  

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1 minute ago, Triple Crown25 said:

No hate involved here either.  Obviously everyone has their own opinion, and ours differ.  How can someone say that his 2015 numbers aren't representative but at the same time can argue that his 2016 is? Sure a good 4 game stretch helps, but that's how stats work.  You get rewarded for great games, just as everyone is bashing his poor ones.  The rams were a better overall team in 2015 compared to 2016.  That's just fact.  I 100% can see validity in everyone's negativity on gurley, it is surely supported and warranted.  I just don't agree that he's untalented with poor vision and zero ability to juke or dodge tacklers.  Those things simply are not true.  I appreciate the quality and objective conversation here, one of the reasons I love these forums.  I'm going to back away now and keep the thread open for other input.  

 

The advanced metrics say that those things are positively true. He ranked in the 60's (among RB's) in Juke rate and evaded tackles.  He faced less than 7 in the box almost half the time, but only managed 3.4 ypc.  Only 2 runs over 20 yards the entire season.  

 

 

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7 minutes ago, Triple Crown25 said:

No hate involved here either.  Obviously everyone has their own opinion, and ours differ.  How can someone say that his 2015 numbers aren't representative but at the same time can argue that his 2016 is? Sure a good 4 game stretch helps, but that's how stats work.  You get rewarded for great games, just as everyone is bashing his poor ones.  The rams were a better overall team in 2015 compared to 2016.  That's just fact.  I 100% can see validity in everyone's negativity on gurley, it is surely supported and warranted.  I just don't agree that he's untalented with poor vision and zero ability to juke or dodge tacklers.  Those things simply are not true.  I appreciate the quality and objective conversation here, one of the reasons I love these forums.  I'm going to back away now and keep the thread open for other input.  

 

How is that a fact? The personnel and coaches were the same for the most part in 2015 and 2016. The only difference was Goff. Rams were 7-9 in 2015; 4-5 in 2016 with Case Keenum. They went 0-7 the rest of the way in 2016 with Goff. So if you're saying Goff is clearly the reason they are putrid now, that has merit based on actual results. But I think they regressed more because Gurley was exposed for what he is and the organization was depending on him to be a star.

Edited by dabeesta17
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Don't remember off the top of my head but I'm fairly certain they lost key defensive players in 2016?  I could be wrong on that, seems like I remember them being short handed defensively for a decent amount of games.  Playing from behind is a death sentence to a rb that is never in on 3rd downs.  If I'm wrong on that, are you guys telling me it was Gurleys fault they got worse?  There's no way that's true.  As far as advanced metrics are concerned, how many of those tacklers that were not dodged occurred behind the line of scrimmage?  My guess is a large portion.  It's quite a bit easier to evade after you get the handoff, not so easy when you are staring at defensive linemen before you even touch it.  Want to know the reason he faced so many 7 in the box fronts?  That's all that was needed to shove the garbage oline 2-3 yards back and blow the play up.   I feel like you guys keep reading my statements as saying his poor seasons wasn't at all his fault, let me clarify...he definitely WAS NOT blameless.  Did he take plays off?  Sure he did.  Did he press runs and not let them develop? Also a yes.  My argument against you is that calling him untalented just isn't true.  

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34 minutes ago, SpartanEric said:

 

The advanced metrics say that those things are positively true. He ranked in the 60's (among RB's) in Juke rate and evaded tackles.  He faced less than 7 in the box almost half the time, but only managed 3.4 ypc.  Only 2 runs over 20 yards the entire season.  

 

 

 

Leveon averaged 3.5 ypc his rookie campaign, so was it a good idea to go ahead and call him untalented?

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51 minutes ago, Triple Crown25 said:

No hate involved here either.  Obviously everyone has their own opinion, and ours differ.  How can someone say that his 2015 numbers aren't representative but at the same time can argue that his 2016 is? Sure a good 4 game stretch helps, but that's how stats work.  You get rewarded for great games, just as everyone is bashing his poor ones.  The rams were a better overall team in 2015 compared to 2016.  That's just fact.  I 100% can see validity in everyone's negativity on gurley, it is surely supported and warranted.  I just don't agree that he's untalented with poor vision and zero ability to juke or dodge tacklers.  Those things simply are not true.  I appreciate the quality and objective conversation here, one of the reasons I love these forums.  I'm going to back away now and keep the thread open for other input.  

What do you mean that's how stats work?

 

All his good games were in a row and then he sucked for almost two years. It wasn't bad good bad bad good good bad good. Which would display just inconsistency. It was good good good maybe one or two more good games and then 20+ bad more or less in a row. Which is called a fluke.

Edited by Gohawks
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1 hour ago, SpartanEric said:

 

The advanced metrics say that those things are positively true. He ranked in the 60's (among RB's) in Juke rate and evaded tackles.  He faced less than 7 in the box almost half the time, but only managed 3.4 ypc.  Only 2 runs over 20 yards the entire season.  

 

 

 

Those metrics say he performed that way, doesn't say he isn't talented. He had one of the absolute worst lines in the league. Upgrades should help somewhat. The fact that he could be used as a receiver more should help put him in position to be in space to evade tackles.

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20 minutes ago, Gohawks said:

What do you mean that's how stats work?

 

All his good games were in a row and then he sucked for almost two years. It wasn't bad good bad bad good good bad good. Which would display just inconsistency. It was good good good maybe one or two more good games and then 20+ bad more or less in a row. Which is called a fluke.

 

So how do you explain marshawn Lynch's career in buffalo?  By your reasoning he is untalented?

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I am actually reading up on this thread a lot due to a trade I'm considering to swap Mike Evans in the 2nd round keeper for Todd Gurley in the 4th round keeper. Overall the responses I received in the assistant coach forum was to keep Evans. My only issue is I believe in Gurley. I can't get past the fact he was a top 10 RB drafted and he had a solid rookie year and fell on his face due to circumstance in his sophomore year. It almost reminds me of DeAndre Hopkins situation in Houston last year. Coincidentally I am high on both of these guys despite their value being contingent on other factors such as an O line or qb play. The talent and opportunity are both undeniable. Gurley has been given so many chances to succeed and they will continue that this year with another heavy workload with in a league that has a limited amount of those players. I also believe the Rams new direction is contingent not only on the O line play but Goff's play in his sophomore year with the addition of Sammy Watkins and Whitworth to give him time. Im the only one that is high on Gurley and for those reasons explained. What do you expect? Also on comparison I see doug martin. Another talent that exploded onto the scene his rookie year and then fell on his face the following 2 years to only rebound from injury and inefficiency to another 1400 rush season his 4th year. So i like the gamble on a 3 down back, goal line duty back with a situation that is fluid and the fact they are focused on prioritizing his development whether it be through the air or on the ground. I expect 20 touches per game. 

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15 minutes ago, Triple Crown25 said:

 

So how do you explain marshawn Lynch's career in buffalo?  By your reasoning he is untalented?

Lynch had 1k+ yards and over 4.0 YPC in his first two years. This is with a bad line. In his 4th year he had a struggle on the Seahawks but he switched teams out of nowhere. I'll give you his 3rd season.

 

Even then, his lowest YPC was 3.6. Again, during a year where he switched teams out of nowhere. So I have no idea why you keep using this particular comparison.

Edited by Gohawks
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On 8/15/2017 at 11:43 AM, Iron-cock said:

 

I thought that too, but looking at it a bit closer #95 blew the play up...he pushed the TE back into the hole which is why Gurley bounced it.   

 

2s0dCct.png

 

 

Its simply a matter of effort, ambition and talent combined that equal greatness in both NFL stadiums and on fantasy scoreboards for RBs. Its not even a matter of dissing Gurley. Just look at the difference in effort, ambition and talent in two similarly-situated plays and players (preseason/training camp Week 1, limited action for both #1 RBs for their respective teams, just getting warmed up, new players getting acclimated, etc.).  

 

Gurley illin’ it

 

 

As you point out above, the TE for the Rams got blown up by #95, which changed the original course of the run, and forced the RB to create something for a positive gain. Gurley couldn’t overcome that, danced in the backfield, and lost yards or got one or whatever. That’s going to happen for Gurley often this season against talented defensive linemen. He has to overcome that or he is going to suck.

 

Meanwhile in the Cardinals preseason game last week, the safety #42 ran free and unblocked at DJ. He made the safety miss and picked up 8-9 yards rather effortlessly.

 

DJ killin' it

 

That’s the difference between good/great RBs and mediocre/bad RBs. Gurley is only a value in the Round 5 Blount, Martin, Abdullah range. Mid-Round 2 is far too high to even be semi-considering Gurley.

Edited by dabeesta17
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I'm using that comparison because when you are on a team that has an inferior offensive line, your stats are not as good.  That's a simple concept.  Same team from 07-10, yet his ypc declined.  People were calling him a bust at that point.  He goes to Seattle and is an all pro.  Sure his ypc were above gurleys last year, but there were 2 full seasons where his ypc was less than 4.  So how is it that its comical for me to expect a talented running back who busted onto the scene (just like lynch), had a bad season last year (lynch had bad seasons year 3 and 4), to look like an all pro (like his talent) if given an opportunity to run the ball without being hit behind the line of scrimmage on more than half his carries.  You guys said defenses game planned for him after the first year, I agree.  God forbid a player makes an adjustment and watches film to understand the flow of blocking.  Writing off Gurley as an incredibly talented player is just not fair.  Put him behind the cowboys o line and zeke on the rams I bet you'd take gurley first.  If you don't believe that then this argument is a waste of everyone's time involved.

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10 minutes ago, dabeesta17 said:

 

Its simply a matter of effort, ambition and talent combined that equal greatness in both NFL stadiums and on fantasy scoreboards for RBs. Its not even a matter of dissing Gurley. Just look at the difference in effort, ambition and talent in two similarly-situated plays and players (preseason/training camp Week 1, limited action for both #1 RBs for their respective teams, just getting warmed up, new players getting acclimated, etc.).  

 

Gurley illin’ it

 

 

As you point out above, the TE for the Rams got blown up by #95, which changed the original course of the run, and forced the RB to create something for a positive gain. Gurley couldn’t overcome that, danced in the backfield, and lost yards or got one or whatever. That’s going to happen for Gurley often this season against talented defensive linemen. He has to overcome that or he is going to suck.

 

Meanwhile in the Cardinals preseason game last week, the safety #42 ran free and unblocked at DJ. He made the safety miss and picked up like 8-9 yards rather effortlessly.

 

DJ killing it

 

That’s the difference between good/great RBs and mediocre/bad RBs. Gurley is only a value in the Round 5 Blount, Martin, Abdullah range. Mid-Round 2 is far too high to even be semi-considering Gurley.

 

You posted a play that had two defenders in the backfield for Gurley and one with no penetration for Johnson. 

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13 minutes ago, ryno1980 said:

 

You posted a play that had two defenders in the backfield for Gurley and one with no penetration for Johnson. 

 

The line of scrimmage is the Cowboys' 13 on that play. Gurley got the handoff cleanly at the Cowboy's 17 1/2 yard line. There's a full two yards of separation from the nearest defender when Gurley received the handoff. That's more than enough for a "generational, elite" talent like Gurley to make something happen.

 

EDIT: DJ also stiff-armed another defender after shaking the safety, for an extra 3-4 yards.

Edited by dabeesta17
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1 hour ago, dabeesta17 said:

 

The line of scrimmage is the Cowboys' 13 on that play. Gurley got the handoff cleanly at the Cowboy's 17 1/2 yard line. There's a full two yards of separation from the nearest defender when Gurley received the handoff. That's more than enough for a "generational, elite" talent like Gurley to make something happen.

 

EDIT: DJ also stiff-armed another defender after shaking the safety, for an extra 3-4 yards.

 

Gurley takes the handoff at 3 seconds and one second later, two defenders have him squared up with two more right behind them. 

 

Johnson made the safety miss but the safety took an awful angle and Johnson had his right tackle (76) leading the way. 

 

Im not saying Gurley doesn't deserve his share of blame for last season. But I think the mental toll of being on such a putrid offense was a big factor, probably affecting his confidence.

 

Lets see what Gurley can do with what should be a better offensive coaching staff. Very interested to see if he can bounce back, but I wouldn't reach for him at his second round ADP.

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