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Todd Gurley 2017 Season Outlook


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3 hours ago, dabeesta17 said:

 

Its simply a matter of effort, ambition and talent combined that equal greatness in both NFL stadiums and on fantasy scoreboards for RBs. Its not even a matter of dissing Gurley. Just look at the difference in effort, ambition and talent in two similarly-situated plays and players (preseason/training camp Week 1, limited action for both #1 RBs for their respective teams, just getting warmed up, new players getting acclimated, etc.).  

 

Gurley illin’ it

 

As you point out above, the TE for the Rams got blown up by #95, which changed the original course of the run, and forced the RB to create something for a positive gain. Gurley couldn’t overcome that, danced in the backfield, and lost yards or got one or whatever. That’s going to happen for Gurley often this season against talented defensive linemen. He has to overcome that or he is going to suck.

 

Meanwhile in the Cardinals preseason game last week, the safety #42 ran free and unblocked at DJ. He made the safety miss and picked up 8-9 yards rather effortlessly.

 

DJ killin' it

That’s the difference between good/great RBs and mediocre/bad RBs. Gurley is only a value in the Round 5 Blount, Martin, Abdullah range. Mid-Round 2 is far too high to even be semi-considering Gurley.

 

 

I'm not going to pretend I can measure the ambition and effort of a player by one NFL run.   The reality is the difference between the plays is the Cardinals OLine holds their blocks long enough for DJ to bounce it, AND Fitz comes in and makes a great block for a WR to spring DJ.

 

Meanwhile the Rams OLine does not hold their blocks long enough.

 

After that we could get into the fact that the LB trying to chase down DJ is one of the worst in the league

 

Then we could talk about Oakland being one of the worst run defenses in the league last season, giving up 4.5 YPC.

 

Or you could keep pretending you know something magical about their effort and ambition and that makes 2/3rds of difference on two different plays.

 

 

 

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Thats pretty much what I figured. That they had some vendetta or score to settle. I'm all for players having critics and naysayers because that's what creates discussion around here. But if you're gon

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32 minutes ago, Iron-cock said:

After that we could get into the fact that the LB trying to chase down DJ is one of the worst in the league

 

Then we could talk about Oakland being one of the worst run defenses in the league last season, giving up 4.5 YPC

 

After that we could get to the fact Gurley played the third-worst rush defense in NFL history twice last season and totaled 40/114/1 (2.85 ypc) against them. The fact he was playing such a bad defense didn't seem to help him. Just because NFL players go against bad competition doesn't mean great performances instantly happen. You still have to play and assert your greatness. Superstars make it look easy against good and/or bad competition. Gurley looks like Gurley whether he's playing against the worst LB in the league as you claim, or the best.

 

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Or you could keep pretending you know something magical about their effort and ambition and that makes 2/3rds of difference on two different plays.

 

I don't pretend to know anything. Just watch film and draw conclusions. Your other ambitions that you'll pretend are not there, are just funny at this point.

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24 minutes ago, dabeesta17 said:

 

After that we could get to the fact Gurley played the third-worst rush defense in NFL history twice last season and totaled 40/114/1 (2.85 ypc) against them. The fact he was playing such a bad defense didn't seem to help him. Just because NFL players go against bad competition doesn't mean great performances instantly happen. You still have to play and assert your greatness. Superstars make it look easy against good and/or bad competition. Gurley looks like Gurley whether he's playing against the worst LB in the league as you claim, or the best.

 

 

I don't pretend to know anything. Just watch film and draw conclusions. Your other ambitions that you'll pretend are not there, are just funny at this point.

 

WTH? Lol.

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How do you feel with him as your RB1 if you went WR in the first round?

 

I want to believe this man will get his s--- together and rather have him instead of Lamar Miller (if even he gets to me in the 3rd).

 

After Miller/Crowell, RB's are a joke. Not really comfortable with either of those as RB1. 

 

Gurley is the only realistic guy I can take...and I just gotta assume volume alone gives me decent #'s

 

 

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17 hours ago, Gohawks said:

"This is just 100% flat out wrong and a display of insane recency bias. You can say Gurley has been a scrub. You can say that defenses figured out how to stop him. You can say that he is weak mentally. However, saying that he can't make things happen is false. ... Go watch his rookie season highlights. He was jumping over people, dragging tacklers, and putting on moves. Last year he did none of that. I chalk it up to the same reason I believe A-ROB sucked as I mentioned somewhere earlier. When your team sucks the effort is often times not there like it was before. However, saying that he is obviously JAG that is 100% dependant on blocking is just incorrect."

 

Absolutely! I've drafted Todd Gurley in two leagues thus far. I'll be doing it again this Sunday if I'm positioned near the back. That said, if the Rams fired Jeff Fisher and brought in Sean McVay to have his offense do the exact same thing Fisher's did, expecting different results, then I would strongly recommend owners to avoid Gurley! I see the videos that debeesta posted much differently than he does. You look at the Gurley run and check how many defenders the Cowboys have in the box! I count nine, whereas the play featuring David Johnson, he's going against a base front. 

 

The other things that really bothered me watching the Gurley run is that it's just another front side run from them. No fake, like a pseudo-audible, no misdirection, just show it & run it! Then, look at what they're trying to do there; the box is an overload and they're trying to run behind the TE block's of the DE! That's a back side matchup not anything you'd tend to see on the front side. It ends in a mismatch, shocking, truly. e; 

 

Watching Johnson's run, that's meant to bounce wide. The safety (42) that rolls in late collapses inside, taking himself out of the play. Both the DB (29) and the LB (57) attempt to bring David Johnson down by grabbing for the deltoid. "What the h3ll is going on out here!? Everybody grabbing out there, nobody tackling...grabbing, everybody, ...grab, grab, grab!!!" ...e; The other thing I don't like about Johnson is that he's a long-strider, has the gait of a z-slot primary. That guy is rarely, if ever, a RB. That player isn't likely to have the suddenness you're looking for at that position. 

 

This is Sean McVay, about a week ago:     

 

Quote

"Rams head coach Sean McVay came away impressed enough with Todd Gurley to call him "violent." He added, via ESPN.com: "He did a great job of getting it out into the open field and there was a couple where he's reading it one gap at a time on some of the schemes we have, and you can feel his speed once he gets to the corner. He's a guy that has been motivated and has been a standout throughout the offseason program, and it's been the same throughout camp. We're expecting big things from Todd."... A supreme athlete with the ability to take over games, Gurley was stalled behind a patchwork offensive line last season..." http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000000826600/article/sean-mcvay-sees-violent-todd-gurley-return-to-rams

 

Gotta believe McVay is there to change what they've been doing. Then they bring in a Robert Woods and then a Sammy Watkins, draft a Cooper Kupp. Why they didn't have their young QB dial out of that stacked front, I can't say. Thing about Goff, later when the Cowboys were giving him some room, when he sees it, he just flicks the ball out there, it comes out real quick. 

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12 hours ago, markrc99 said:

 

Absolutely! I've drafted Todd Gurley in two leagues thus far. I'll be doing it again this Sunday if I'm positioned near the back. That said, if the Rams fired Jeff Fisher and brought in Sean McVay to have his offense do the exact same thing Fisher's did, expecting different results, then I would strongly recommend owners to avoid Gurley! I see the videos that debeesta posted much differently than he does. You look at the Gurley run and check how many defenders the Cowboys have in the box! I count nine, whereas the play featuring David Johnson, he's going against a base front. 

 

The other things that really bothered me watching the Gurley run is that it's just another front side run from them. No fake, like a pseudo-audible, no misdirection, just show it & run it! Then, look at what they're trying to do there; the box is an overload and they're trying to run behind the TE block's of the DE! That's a back side matchup not anything you'd tend to see on the front side. It ends in a mismatch, shocking, truly. e; 

 

Watching Johnson's run, that's meant to bounce wide. The safety (42) that rolls in late collapses inside, taking himself out of the play. Both the DB (29) and the LB (57) attempt to bring David Johnson down by grabbing for the deltoid. "What the h3ll is going on out here!? Everybody grabbing out there, nobody tackling...grabbing, everybody, ...grab, grab, grab!!!" ...e; The other thing I don't like about Johnson is that he's a long-strider, has the gait of a z-slot primary. That guy is rarely, if ever, a RB. That player isn't likely to have the suddenness you're looking for at that position. 

 

This is Sean McVay, about a week ago:     

 

 

Gotta believe McVay is there to change what they've been doing. Then they bring in a Robert Woods and then a Sammy Watkins, draft a Cooper Kupp. Why they didn't have their young QB dial out of that stacked front, I can't say. Thing about Goff, later when the Cowboys were giving him some room, when he sees it, he just flicks the ball out there, it comes out real quick. 

 

Love it, my exact thoughts. Last year was as bad as it gets for Gurley IMO. Still a top 20 RB.

 

New coach, new offense and weapons, possible more progression from the QB position and more fire in Gurley's game?

 

I can see how those would be skeptical of him and wouldn't touch him at his current ADP but I can also see looking back at the end of the season and laughing at the people who actually took guys like Fournette and Miller and Crowell over him.

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This guy will make my hair turn grey.

 

Assuming 12 man league,

 

Picks 1 through 6....this is going to be the best running back left in the 2nd. Way too bold taking Fournette over him, and god knows the situation of Zeke.

 

Do you take him if you went WR first? 

 

That is my dilemma right now

Edited by Fearfulways
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3 hours ago, Fearfulways said:

"Picks 1 through 6....this is going to be the best running back left in the 2nd. Way too bold taking Fournette over him, and god knows the situation of Zeke. Do you take him if you went WR first?" 

 

If there isn't a WR there you like better, I think so. Skill & volume, plus there's every indication they'll shape up & run an NFL-level offense. It's not like it takes a 10-year vet to recognize the stacked fronts they're seeing and put them in the right play or at the very least, a better one! I like him a lot & I hope I'm positioned in the back again so I can pair him w/Gordon, if Jordo isn't there. 

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12 hours ago, bgar15 said:

 

Love it, my exact thoughts. Last year was as bad as it gets for Gurley IMO. Still a top 20 RB.

 

New coach, new offense and weapons, possible more progression from the QB position and more fire in Gurley's game?

 

I can see how those would be skeptical of him and wouldn't touch him at his current ADP but I can also see looking back at the end of the season and laughing at the people who actually took guys like Fournette and Miller and Crowell over him.

 

He'll have bad games. He won't be as consistent as Bell or DJ so people will panic when he puts up 20 carries and 60 yards, but I think he'll have more big games than he did last year. Hell, he didn't have any big games last year.

 

This year with much better weapons, a more creative coach and QB who should at least have some grasp of what he's doing now, that offense will kick into gear once in a while and Gurley will bust some long runs for some big games. He'll be a top 10 RB this year but he'll also be up and down.

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7 hours ago, PolarBear said:

Saw every touch he had in this game on NFL.com. 

 

Wasn't impressed. O-line didn't look great either.  Still had guys in the backfield too often. 

 

Guys in the backfield often and still 4.8 YPC? 

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I can't stress enough how historically pathetic this offense was last year with one of the worst offensive HCs all time and how he lost the entire locker room.  Since the Week 8 BYE, they went 1-8 with the lone win being against the Jets in a 9-6 FG battle.

 

The only touchdowns were:

 

1 passing TD vs Carolina (a secondary that gave up about 300 receiving yards to Julio Jones earlier in the year)

1 rushing TD vs Miami (a run defense that gave up about 200 rushing yards to Le'Veon Bell in a playoff game)

3 passing TDs vs Saints (historically bad defense)

3 TDs to NIners (historically bad defense)

 

THe other 3 for rest of season came against the Patriots & Falcons

1 garbage time TD bomb to Kenny Britt when they were down 23-3 at NE

2 garbage time rushing TDs to ATL while down 42-0 in the 4th quarter ( I believe Matt Schaub was in for ATL at the time)

 

This is the same offense that has been waiting on Tavon Austin, Brian Quick, Lance Kendricks and Greg Robinson to get it right for a few years now

 

While they still have Austin, they overhauled the scheme and personnel.  Sean McVay is exponentially better than Jeff Fisher at putting together an offensive scheme equipped with knowledgeable coaching and coordinators and the right personnel.  That particular group made offense in Washington relevant again after they were pretty bad for over a decade.  Todd Gurley was involved in a perfect storm last year to fail and still finished about 15th!  If anything he has so much room to obliterate that this year.

 

 

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13 minutes ago, Dylanfan66 said:

Don't trust him on this team.  Great talent maybe.  But the team he is on.  Can't do it.  Or he is just T Rich.  Can't tell because of the team.

 

Are you kidding me T Rich?  He just got into the top 10 in his rookie year and just barely was a top 40 back in 2013 (He couldn't even produce next to Andrew Luck).  Gurley was top 3 his rookie year (despite missing the first 2 or 3 games) and top 15 last year.

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