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Todd Gurley 2017 Season Outlook


FlashGordon401
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You guys are all fools. Gurley was on the Rams with no passing game and no oline. What kind of stats do you think any running back would put up in that situation. Gurley is an amazing talent and anyone who says otherwise honestly has no clue what they are talking about. People said the same about Gordon and his 'ypc' going into his second season. You can tell who watches football and who just watches end season results based off of what they say about players like Gurley. People view the ypc as an end all be all but it's a meaningless stat. You also can't evade tackles when defenders hit you 1-2 yards behind the line of scrimmage. 

 

Now am I drafting Gurley next year in fantasy football? I don't know. Maybe if I can get him late 3rd or early 4th. No one is going to take his work and he's held up for two straight years and he's a generational talent. 

Edited by boltup15
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Regressing a little bit is one thing. But going from the fluke 4.8 ypc in 2015 to the reality 3.2 ypc last season is really all you need to know. None of the excuses for Gurley hold water. He had the same QB, same offensive line, and same receiving core in 2015 and 2016; and flat-out sucked in 2016. Two of the Rams wide receivers reached career highs in receptions and yards (Britt and Austin) in 2016, while Keenum 2016 (2200 yards, 9 TDs, 11 INTs in 10 games) had very similar numbers to Foles 2015 (2,052, 7 TDs, 10 INTs in 11 games). Gurley was simply exposed for what he is; and was the reason the Rams offense was so anemic.

 

Gurley basically played in 12 games his rookie year. He got half of his 1,100 yards in four games early in the season before defenses figured out all they have to do is get in front of him to stop him. He's not juking anyone, running anyone over, or stiff arming anyone. Gurley needs gaping holes that rarely happen in the NFL outside of Dallas, to be productive. Otherwise he is what he is: an RB that runs into the back of his OL for 1 or 2 yards. He better milk his name brand for all its worth through 2017, get as many endorsements as possible and cash in. He's not an NFL caliber RB and won't be getting another contract after the rookie one expires.

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50 minutes ago, boltup15 said:

You guys are all fools. Gurley was on the Rams with no passing game and no oline. What kind of stats do you think any running back would put up in that situation. Gurley is an amazing talent and anyone who says otherwise honestly has no clue what they are talking about. People said the same about Gordon and his 'ypc' going into his second season. You can tell who watches football and who just watches end season results based off of what they say about players like Gurley. People view the ypc as an end all be all but it's a meaningless stat. You also can't evade tackles when defenders hit you 1-2 yards behind the line of scrimmage. 

 

Now am I drafting Gurley next year in fantasy football? I don't know. Maybe if I can get him late 3rd or early 4th. No one is going to take his work and he's held up for two straight years and he's a generational talent. 

 

I think the comparison to AP was way overblown though. He isn't a generational talent like AP. AP persevered with no passing game for most of his career. Now the OLines I can't really comment on, but I still think Gurley vastly under performed last season. The great ones perform regardless of the situation around them. They raise the talent of those around them.

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36 minutes ago, dabeesta17 said:

Regressing a little bit is one thing. But going from the fluke 4.8 ypc in 2015 to the reality 3.2 ypc last season is really all you need to know. None of the excuses for Gurley hold water. He had the same QB, same offensive line, and same receiving core in 2015 and 2016; and flat-out sucked in 2016. Two of the Rams wide receivers reached career highs in receptions and yards (Britt and Austin) in 2016, while Keenum 2016 (2200 yards, 9 TDs, 11 INTs in 10 games) had very similar numbers to Foles 2015 (2,052, 7 TDs, 10 INTs in 11 games). Gurley was simply exposed for what he is; and was the reason the Rams offense was so anemic.

 

Gurley basically played in 12 games his rookie year. He got half of his 1,100 yards in four games early in the season before defenses figured out all they have to do is get in front of him to stop him. He's not juking anyone, running anyone over, or stiff arming anyone. Gurley needs gaping holes that rarely happen in the NFL outside of Dallas, to be productive. Otherwise he is what he is: an RB that runs into the back of his OL for 1 or 2 yards. He better milk his name brand for all its worth through 2017, get as many endorsements as possible and cash in. He's not an NFL caliber RB and won't be getting another contract after the rookie one expires.

 

I think you should make the last sentence your signature.  Because that's as bold an opinion on Gurley as I've ever heard. 

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45 minutes ago, 96mnc said:

 

I think you should make the last sentence your signature.  Because that's as bold an opinion on Gurley as I've ever heard. 

All I know is he better have won every league he was in this year to feel that confident about his 2017, 2018, 2019, and beyond 2020 season analysis. 

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49 minutes ago, 96mnc said:

 

I think you should make the last sentence your signature.  Because that's as bold an opinion on Gurley as I've ever heard. 

 

That's as "dumb" of an opinion I've ever heard of Gurley. Now we all know who to never listen to again on the forums. This is almost as bad as the guy who called Brady's performance the worst super bowl QB performance of all time before the second half. 

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3 hours ago, boltup15 said:

You guys are all fools. Gurley was on the Rams with no passing game and no oline. What kind of stats do you think any running back would put up in that situation. Gurley is an amazing talent and anyone who says otherwise honestly has no clue what they are talking about. People said the same about Gordon and his 'ypc' going into his second season. You can tell who watches football and who just watches end season results based off of what they say about players like Gurley. People view the ypc as an end all be all but it's a meaningless stat. You also can't evade tackles when defenders hit you 1-2 yards behind the line of scrimmage. 

 

Now am I drafting Gurley next year in fantasy football? I don't know. Maybe if I can get him late 3rd or early 4th. No one is going to take his work and he's held up for two straight years and he's a generational talent. 

 

I tend to stick to actual game film and results on the field versus having naive faith in some guy being a "generational talent" and an "amazing talent" at RB who just turned in one of the most embarrassing and inept 24 game stretches in NFL history.

 

Funny how the top 2 WRs on the Rams achieved career highs in receptions and yards last season, and the QB was the same in production and personnel for the most part. But this god-like RB was the worst in the NFL among starters because, as you say, "no passing game and no oline," despite Gurley having the same passing game and same Oline during his fluke 4-game rookie stretch. But in the era of alternative facts, I guess your declarations of amazing and generational are valid.

 

Regardless, this post will be here come Week 8 of 2017. Many like to argue sample size. 24 games is more than adequate. I have nothing more to say about this scrub. Waste of time.

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9 minutes ago, dabeesta17 said:

 

I tend to stick to actual game film and results on the field versus having naive faith in some guy being a "generational talent" and an "amazing talent" at RB who just turned in one of the most embarrassing and inept 24 game stretches in NFL history.

 

Funny how the top 2 WRs on the Rams achieved career highs in receptions and yards last season, and the QB was the same in production and personnel for the most part. But this god-like RB was the worst in the NFL among starters because, as you say, "no passing game and no oline," despite Gurley having the same passing game and same Oline during his fluke 4-game rookie stretch. But in the era of alternative facts, I guess your declarations of amazing and generational are valid.

 

Regardless, this post will be here come Week 8 of 2017. Many like to argue sample size. 24 games is more than adequate. I have nothing more to say about this scrub. Waste of time.

 

Its pretty obvious why the receivers had decent seasons. Typically when teams are playing from behind they throw the ball more, leading to more receptions and receiving yards!! 

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5 hours ago, boltup15 said:

You guys are all fools. Gurley was on the Rams with no passing game and no oline. What kind of stats do you think any running back would put up in that situation.

 

Then why we're most people foolish enough to draft him ahead of DJ, Bell, Zeke and Freeman? We all knew his coach, QB and O-line sucked well before the season started.

 

He made the worst of a very bad situation. Not what elite RBs do. 

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5 hours ago, boltup15 said:

You guys are all fools. Gurley was on the Rams with no passing game and no oline. What kind of stats do you think any running back would put up in that situation.

 

What makes you so confident his situation has dramatically improved for 2017?

Edited by joshua18
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14 minutes ago, joshua18 said:

 

What makes you so confident his situation has dramatically improved for 2017?

 

That's the catch...it hasn't yet.   Free agency hasn't started nor has the draft taken place.  Only the coaching staff has changed.  I need to see major personnel changes on the oline.

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1 hour ago, joshua18 said:

 

Then why we're most people foolish enough to draft him ahead of DJ, Bell, Zeke and Freeman? We all knew his coach, QB and O-line sucked well before the season started.

 

He made the worst of a very bad situation. Not what elite RBs do. 

Look at the guys you mentioned. All on great teams or good stable organizations.
Not a coincidence.

Edited by CL3VELANDBR0WNS
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1 hour ago, 96mnc said:

 

That's the catch...it hasn't yet.   Free agency hasn't started nor has the draft taken place.  Only the coaching staff has changed.  I need to see major personnel changes on the oline.

But I think the confidence is derived from the fact that it actually cannot get worse. 
Jeff Fisher was the 32nd best coach in the NFL.
He might have played with a better line at Georgia.
The QB position was unsteady, changing from Keenum to Goff.
It is also fair to wonder how much control Goff had over the offense and how much knowledge he had of NFL defenses. There were times where the whole team probably knew that Gurley was going to run straight into a brick wall, but you don't know if the offense was baby-fied and how much pre snap power Goff was allowed.

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2 hours ago, joshua18 said:

 

What makes you so confident his situation has dramatically improved for 2017?

 

I don't think his situation will be any better (maybe a little, maybe worse). I'd only draft in early fourth or very late 3rd (maybe). At the end of the day no one is going to take his job and he should have a decent amount of volume. 

 

I just think he's a very talented back in a very crummy situation. I probably won't draft him and draft a back like Riddick instead at a later round. 

Edited by boltup15
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59 minutes ago, joshua18 said:

 

But we knew that in August. Why then did you and many others draft him ahead of them?

I didn't. I won the Super Bowl with him in my one dynasty league I owned him.
He was always going to be a little overdrafted but I did not know just how bad it had gotten.

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1 hour ago, boltup15 said:

 

I don't think his situation will be any better (maybe a little, maybe worse). I'd only draft in early fourth or very late 3rd (maybe). At the end of the day no one is going to take his job and he should have a decent amount of volume. 

 

I just think he's a very talented back in a very crummy situation. I probably won't draft him and draft a back like Riddick instead at a later round. 

Good post. 
In redraft he may be a favorite of mine as a zero RB enthusiast. 
He finished as RB19 in my league this year and that's solid RB2 range. It can't get worse and the upside is RB3 overall. 

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2 hours ago, CL3VELANDBR0WNS said:

Good post. 
In redraft he may be a favorite of mine as a zero RB enthusiast. 
He finished as RB19 in my league this year and that's solid RB2 range. It can't get worse and the upside is RB3 overall. 

 

The problem though is I feel like there is at least one to three guys in a league that will take him earlier than he should. He'll probably go second. I'd still take him before Ajayi, Howard etc but that's not saying much. I'd rather pay up for job security at the RB position. To me that's extremely important when drafting RB's in the first four rounds. I'd rather take a talented WR than an RB that might hold onto the job and run away with it (hi Spencer Ware)

Edited by boltup15
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5 minutes ago, boltup15 said:

 

The problem though is I feel like there is at least one to three guys in a league that will take him earlier than he should. He'll probably go second. I'd still take him before Ajayi, Howard etc but that's not saying much. I'd rather pay up for job security at the RB position. To me that's extremely important when drafting RB's in the first four rounds. I'd rather take a talented WR than an RB that might hold onto the job and run away with it (hi Spencer Ware)

Yeah I agree.
The two backs you mentioned did run behind good offensive lines this year. 
In some cases, you get good backs in great situations like Elliot, Freeman, etc.
In other cases, you get "JAGs" in great situations like Howard, Ajayi, and Latavius. 
The top guys I would choose over Gurley today but when you go down to average talents, it just becomes hard to differentiate. Do you want the better talent or the better situation? 
Usually, I'll go with the better talent. Reason being that you are relying on one sole factor and that is the player and how far his talent can take him in spite of his situation. If you draft a below average player for his situation, you are relying on his entire offense and when one cog gets injured or plays ineffective, suddenly the below average player starts to get exposed. We saw it with Ajayi when OL injuries and QB injuries hit. 

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8 hours ago, dabeesta17 said:

Gurley was 5th in the NFL in rushing attempts in 2016 (278). Of the 42 RBs who qualified for yards per attempt final stats (minimum 100 carries), Gurley was 41st (3.2 ypc). Only Doug Martin was worse (2.9 ypc).

 

What about his 2015 stats? He's still only 22. People forget that. 

Edited by boltup15
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19 hours ago, dabeesta17 said:

"He [Gurley] had the same QB, same offensive line, and same receiving core in 2015 and 2016; and flat-out sucked in 2016. Two of the Rams wide receivers reached career highs in receptions and yards (Britt and Austin) in 2016, while Keenum 2016 (2200 yards, 9 TDs, 11 INTs in 10 games) had very similar numbers to Foles 2015 (2,052, 7 TDs, 10 INTs in 11 games). Gurley was simply exposed for what he is; and was the reason the Rams offense was so anemic. ... He's not juking anyone, running anyone over, or stiff arming anyone. Gurley needs gaping holes that rarely happen in the NFL outside of Dallas, to be productive." 

 

All I know is that around mid-December Gurley publicly compared the offensive philosophy to that of a "middle school" & Fisher was axed like two weeks later.  You may also want to consider that the former coaching staff didn't seem to know what they had in Jared Cook, nor did they ever figure out how to get Tavon Austin going. Despite the "career highs" you emphasize, he had a serious TD regression. Do tell, were either of these receivers ever in your starting lineup? No? Shocked, truly. You don't think Gurley's presence might've had something to do with the coverages each of those guys faced? 

 

I do agree, and I think a lot of others do as well, that at sites like CBS, scout & FFC, Gurley is currently overvalued. McVay's success will likely be tied to the development of Jared Goff. But that may require putting him in a system that which he's most comfortable. The play I hate the most and I believe every team runs it, is when the QB is in the gun and the ball carrier lines up somewhere near him. The ball is snapped and every other player on the field explodes off the ball except one... the guy they hand it to. Every defender has taken several steps and the RB is standing there flat-footed & the QB sticks the thing in his belly. It's garbage! Perhaps what OCs will do in the future is simply line up their RB deeper on the pre-snap so that he can get downhill when handed the ball. That was part of the problem with Gordon and could become an issue with Gurley if the priority is Goff.         

Edited by markrc99
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I think all last year and the 2nd half of 2015 proved is that Gurley is not a generational talent. The offensive situation did not change all that much between the last 2 seasons. And outside of his first 4-5 games in 2015, he has struggled mightily. If the situation improves in FA/draft he will do better, but I think he is talent is overvalued.

 

 

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