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Todd Gurley 2017 Season Outlook


FlashGordon401
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50 minutes ago, PolarBear said:

 

He picked like 8-10 yards up on 1 run because his offensive line basically picked him up and carried him.  

Got it. So the line is bad and he is always getting stuffed because the line is bad but then the line was good so he isn't good because he had good blocking one time.

 

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2 hours ago, PolarBear said:

 

 

He picked like 8-10 yards up on 1 run because his offensive line basically picked him up and carried him.  

 

Actually he picked up 9 yards on that run because he kept his legs churning and Robert Woods pushed him from behind after missing a block on a linebacker in the hole.  Gurley didn't have a lot to work with on that play:

 

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Just to show the difference between last year and this one...after a few successful runs the Rams call some play action, and Kupp gets wide open for a touchdown because the Raiders are too worried about Gurley. 

 

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Edited by Iron-cock
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11 hours ago, Gohawks said:

"Got it. So the line is bad and he is always getting stuffed because the line is bad but then the line was good so he isn't good because he had good blocking one time."

 

I see that this comment received a lot of likes. Perhaps we can all agree that whether a particular OL is one of the better ones is subjective. I don't think Urban Meyer or Chip Kelly were the first offensive minded coaches to figure out that it's a lot easier to seal off space than it is to create it by physically moving defenders out of the way. But even if they were, it hardly matters. Point being and that which is emphasized by the clips posted by Iron-cock, the Rams need to do a better job of taking the space the defense gives them! 

 

In that 2nd one, apart from one defender who is too late closing on Goff, look at the room he has to set up and find a wide-open Cooper Kupp for six! If they execute those the implications could be profound. Every RB is better when afforded space to exploit. The initial play clip that Iron-cock posted is equally telling. Take note of the defenders who are closing on Gurley. What do you notice about them? One of them, #27, is coming off the back side of the play and in the backfield for god sake. Is he a DL? Of course not, he obviously plays in the secondary. What about the defender filling the hole, #21? What about the defender setting the edge, #38? They're all DBs, loading up to help get somebody stopped... any idea who that player might be?        

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His stock keeps rising. 

 

The offense should be vastly improved. Whole new coaching staff. Infusion of exciting talent (watkins). Team should be much more inspired this year. Early returns of Goff this preseason have been positive. 

 

Gurley seems to be someone that everyone wants between picks 12 thru 16. 

 

My gut feeling is that by the time the season rolls around. He won't last past pick 10. 

 

 

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4 minutes ago, PackerBacker555 said:

Been going for around $42-$45 in mocks

Got him for $37 in PPR 12 man last night.

 

 

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I'm high on Gurley because everything I've read about McVay is that he's an offensive mastermind, the Rams quit on Fisher last season, and they added a pro-bowl leader at LT in Whitworth and a pro-bowl WR in Sammy Watkins and a possession receiver in Kupp. The dependent variables are significantly different this year. I'm buying Gurley everywhere I can right now due to the dependent factors changing positively and the fact that he is a 3 down back with no RBBC to worry about.

 

 

 

Edited by Folarin
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1 minute ago, Dylanfan66 said:

Wow.  We will see.  This guy is polarizing.  I could see T rich or I could see top 5.  A total coin flip to me. 

I am a big fan of him. I believe it was more situational last year for his downfall although he was not completely innocent. His YPC was horrendous for 276 touches, but he will not have stacked boxes nearly as much as last year. Rams offensive core is a thousand times better now, and their D is good enough to keep the games low-scoring: less stacked boxes + running the clock out - Gurley can have 300+ touches. If he increases his receptions (which I know the plan in camp was to get him more involved in passing), he could be an absolute MONSTER. 

 

 

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20 minutes ago, Olliemets said:

So I wouldn't be completely crazy to take the guy at pick 14 in round 2 in a standard league? I'm starting to like him more than the Ajayi/Howard/Murray group..

I have them ranked Ajayi / Gurley / Howard / Murray in standard.

 

I'm trying to avoid Murray at all costs this year. Since College he's always been injury prone, age 29 season, Henry looks to make it a RBBC in year 2. 

 

 

 

 

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One thing I focus on when drafting - How did the external factors change?

 

 

- Young, bright minded OC turned HC to run the show.

- Addition of weapons -  Watkins, Kupp

- Improved line - Whitworth

- Departure of Cunningham as 3rd down back

- 2nd year QB

 

I also really like Melvin Gordon this year for the same reason and would still take Gordon over him though.

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2 minutes ago, CharlieWhitehurst said:

It's very, very close for me. It literally went in my draft murray then gurley. 

It depends on what you're looking for and how you plan on drafting in the later rounds. I didn't want to take a handcuff as early as I would have to for Henry, which I think is one of 2-3 handcuffs this year that are a necessity. If this is a dynasty/keeper league, I'm taking Gurley all day not even thinking about it twice. 

Titans are going to be really good this year and have the easiest division in football (arguably). However, I would not be surprised if I saw a 50/50 split between Murray and Henry this year for the Titans to start easing Murray out of a starter role, hence why I would still go with Gurley personally in redraft. But I would certainly understand taking Murray over Gurley here. 

Gurley you are getting a workhorse, 3 down back. The Rams ARE IMPROVED this year.

 

This is how I see it with Goff effecting Gurley:

 

a.) Goff sucks again - He can't throw the ball down the field accurately. This can increase Gurley's receptions more since DB'S will still have to cover Watkins, Kupp, etc. and Goff will feel more comfortable throwing short, quick passes. PPR this works. Only way this backfires is if they use Kupp/Austin more for these type of plays. With Gurley's speed I can't see that making much sense. 

 

b.) Goff improves dramatically because of situational changes - Way more space for Gurley to run, and he's QUICK. YPC go up and if he gets even 75% of touches with an increase of YPC he will be a monster in this alone. 


I was talking redraft (sorry, I always forget to specify), but you do make some really good points. I wasn't quite considering that the carries would be split 50/50, but even in a significant timeshare, I see the Titans moving the ball much better and having many more opportunities to score than the Rams this year. 

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4 minutes ago, EaglesRocker97 said:


I was talking redraft (sorry, I always forget to specify), but you do make some really good points. I wasn't quite considering that the carries would be split 50/50, but even in a significant timeshare, I see the Titans moving the ball much better and having many more opportunities to score than the Rams this year. 

Yeah it's sooo close. It really just depends on your preference. I think round 2 RBS are the hardest of all fantasy football right now to decipher currently. 

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9 minutes ago, Folarin said:

I have them ranked Ajayi / Gurley / Howard / Murray in standard.

 

I'm trying to avoid Murray at all costs this year. Since College he's always been injury prone, age 29 season, Henry looks to make it a RBBC in year 2. 

 

 

 

 

What are you talking about?

 

Passed 3 years Murray has played in 47 out of 48 games. In other words, he has played in 98% of his games. 

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5 minutes ago, Gohawks said:

What are you talking about?

 

Passed 3 years Murray has played in 47 out of 48 games. In other words, he has played in 98% of his games. 

And the 3 seasons before that?

 

13

10

14

 

I just don't trust him in age 29 season.

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1 hour ago, Folarin said:

One thing I focus on when drafting - How did the external factors change?

 

 

- Young, bright minded OC turned HC to run the show.

- Addition of weapons -  Watkins, Kupp

- Improved line - Whitworth

- Departure of Cunningham as 3rd down back

- 2nd year QB

 

I also really like Melvin Gordon this year for the same reason and would still take Gordon over him though.

 

It's funny you say that because I have them both. Gordon 1st, Gurley 2nd round. I thought it was important to establish solid RBs early this year. It falls off QUICK.

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24 minutes ago, Folarin said:

And the 3 seasons before that?

 

13

10

14

 

I just don't trust him in age 29 season.

So his first 3 years in the league he got hurt a bit and that means more than any recent stuff? I mean if you had said you didn't trust a guy coming off a 346 touch season due to wear and tear I'd listen. But coming off a 346 touch season where he was a selected to the pro bowl playing all 16 games, I see a little regression but not a DND type.

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6 minutes ago, Castzpg said:

So his first 3 years in the league he got hurt a bit and that means more than any recent stuff? I mean if you had said you didn't trust a guy coming off a 346 touch season due to wear and tear I'd listen. But coming off a 346 touch season where he was a selected to the pro bowl playing all 16 games, I see a little regression but not a DND type.

I just see RBBC looming, had a turf toe 2nd half of last season that hurt him, and coming off close to 350 touches at 29 years old. Just my opinion.

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1 hour ago, kco734 said:

Tough call between Todd Gurley & Leonard Fournette i have no clue which one is better

I think these guys are at the tail end of the possible 3 down backs.  More questions about Fournette with Chris Ivory in the picture, but I think the Jags don't draft a guy so high if they don't intend to play him.

 

I'm starting to change my tune about Gurley as well.  I think you can get him at a discount in some drafts just due to the perceived suckiness of the Rams.  

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8 minutes ago, Dylanfan66 said:

Howard has a floor. Gurley has a basement.

 

If so, what's Gurley's basement in your opinion? Because he put up a whopping 3.2 YPC in 2016 and still finished as a top 20 RB.

 

If that's his "basement", I'll take it.

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