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Todd Gurley 2017 Season Outlook


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34 minutes ago, bgar15 said:

 

If so, what's Gurley's basement in your opinion? Because he put up a whopping 3.2 YPC in 2016 and still finished as a top 20 RB.

 

If that's his "basement", I'll take it.

 

I'd take that basement too if Gurley was going in the 4th or 5th round; but not in the 2nd.

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Thats pretty much what I figured. That they had some vendetta or score to settle. I'm all for players having critics and naysayers because that's what creates discussion around here. But if you're gon

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Man some of you are really ignorant when it comes to the Rams. Most of you know Jeff Fisher couldn't coach a lick of offense. You add a offensive mind like McVay to this team he'll do wonders with Gurley. Improved offensive line, Watkins, Woods, Kupp, Everett, and better QB play by Goff under McVay. Mind you he has very appealing schedule. He'll get a boost in the receiving department. McVay plays the biggest part in TG because of his play calling. He'll be a clear top 5 RB this year and most of you will regret it because you were stuck on 2016. This isn't the Jeff Fisher era anymore and Gurley is going to run wild. Quote me all you want. 

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9 minutes ago, ninjacookies said:

Most of you know Jeff Fisher couldn't coach a lick of offense. This isn't the Jeff Fisher era anymore and Gurley is going to run wild. Quote me all you want. 

 

So when Jeff Fisher coached the Rams to a 7-9 record and Gurley to a 229/1106/10 rookie season in 2015, what was that?

 

And why was Gurley so much worse with the exact same offensive scheme and the same offensive line in 2016?

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3 minutes ago, dabeesta17 said:

 

So when Jeff Fisher coached the Rams to a 7-9 record and Gurley to a 229/1106/10 rookie season in 2015, what was that?

 

And why was Gurley so much worse with the exact same offensive scheme and the same offensive line in 2016?

To be completely honest does anyone have an answer for that? You can say that about so many players in the league. Bad years happen even with studs. You should know that since you're a huge Nuk fan. I have confidence in the talent and the new offense. 

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1 minute ago, ninjacookies said:

To be completely honest does anyone have an answer for that? You can say that about so many players in the league. Bad years happen even with studs. You should know that since you're a huge Nuk fan. I have confidence in the talent and the new offense. 

 

Fair enough if you just have confidence in Gurley.

 

Hopkins had to adjust to a QB change last year that resulted in exposing one of the biggest frauds at QB in NFL history (I think 95%+ of NFL watchers would agree with that statement). That is the reason for his bad year. Gurley had pretty much the same team and same QB last year. There are no excuses. Interestingly the Rams were 4-5 with Keenum while Gurley was stinking up the joint. They made the QB change, went 0-7 the rest of the way, and Gurley was still stinking up the joint.

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The easy answer is that teams schemed for Gurley all year and realized they would rather have the Rams beat them through the air instead of the ground.  But that's a cop-out answer.

 

I think Gurley will provide great value for whomever gets him in the second round this year.  I'd rather draft Gurley than Zeke Elliott, which I'm sure is a decision that many will have to make.  

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4 minutes ago, CooL said:

The easy answer is that teams schemed for Gurley all year and realized they would rather have the Rams beat them through the air instead of the ground.  But that's a cop-out answer.

 

I think Gurley will provide great value for whomever gets him in the second round this year.  I'd rather draft Gurley than Zeke Elliott, which I'm sure is a decision that many will have to make.  

 

And a week ago, I think most would have taken Zeke over him. Now? Not so much...

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Fantasy lords help me I'm considering Todd Gurley at pick friggin 19. Pretty much for the reasons everyone mentioned. The likely better offense, adding a good o-lineman, more 3rd down work, etc. He can clear 270 carries and 40 receptions. Even with a terrible 3.6 ypc and mediocre 7.5 ypr, that's over 1250 yards. And it's possible he ends up closer to 45-50 receptions. It's probably going to be extremely frustrating to own him, but he can be a high-end rb2 based on volume. 

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4 minutes ago, Red Sox Nation said:

Fantasy lords help me I'm considering Todd Gurley at pick friggin 19. Pretty much for the reasons everyone mentioned. The likely better offense, adding a good o-lineman, more 3rd down work, etc. He can clear 270 carries and 40 receptions. Even with a terrible 3.6 ypc and mediocre 7.5 ypr, that's over 1250 yards. And it's possible he ends up closer to 45-50 receptions. It's probably going to be extremely frustrating to own him, but he can be a high-end rb2 based on volume. 

That's exactly where I took him at, after passing on RB in the first round.  Grabbed Fournette at the turn in the third.

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2 hours ago, Dylanfan66 said:

Howard has a floor. Gurley has a basement.

But the thing is in PPR leagues he finished as the 16th best RB (I believe), he's being drafted as RB 9-13 depending on what rankings/site you use, so his basement is 3 spots lower than where he's being drafted that seems like a great pick. Also do you not see the similarities between Gurley last year and Howard this year?

Crappy Team

Breakout Rookie year

At some point a rookie QB will be making starts

Don't have a receiver to keep defenses honest, and please don't try to convince me that Merideth is 

Play in a tough division so gamescript will be against him a lot of the time

A coach that is extremely frustrating to have fantasy players play on.

So let me fix your statement:

Gurley has a floor and we already know what it is (RB16), Howard has a basement.

Edited by Ddam2013
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I think what people always forget is that past performance doesn't predict future results.  

I'm going to go with the guy getting 82% of snaps and 84% opportunity share (carries + targets) vs 73 and 73% respectively for Howard.

 

Both teams likely have bad offenses.  I'm choosing to believe in McVay and what he can bring.  If anything, his track record for passing offenses can at least make it easier for Gurley.  I think Gurley easily gets 300 carries this year.  Not too many of those backs you can find these days.

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52 minutes ago, Ddam2013 said:

But the thing is in PPR leagues he finished as the 16th best RB (I believe), he's being drafted as RB 9-13 depending on what rankings/site you use, so his basement is 3 spots lower than where he's being drafted that seems like a great pick. Also do you not see the similarities between Gurley last year and Howard this year?

Crappy Team

Breakout Rookie year

At some point a rookie QB will be making starts

Don't have a receiver to keep defenses honest, and please don't try to convince me that Merideth is 

Play in a tough division so gamescript will be against him a lot of the time

A coach that is extremely frustrating to have fantasy players play on.

So let me fix your statement:

Gurley has a floor and we already know what it is (RB16), Howard has a basement.

 

Agreed - my exact thoughts. People have it backwards.

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On 8/2/2017 at 4:36 PM, ponza88 said:


Lamp was going to be their starting RG and was highly rated on PFF.

“He was playing so well,” coach Anthony Lynn said. “He was really coming along at that right-guard position. I really hope he’s OK. It would definitely hurt the team.”

I'm not going to go over every reason as to why I like Gurley, I've said it before. I will say though that I'm very confident in McVay and the new additions they added in the offseason. I'm confident in McVay's gameplanning for Gurley. I'm a PPR guy. I already believed in the chatter that they'll use his receiving skills more, now with the loss of Dunbar and camp quotes and talk about McVay lining Gurley out wide, he's getting a boost in my mind. Add the O-Line improvements, Kromer, a really talented FB and potentially better receivers than they've had in a WHILE...

I believe in those additions and I believe in the Rams improving... thus, I believe in an inspired Gurley going back into Top 8 status.

I know I'm in the minority here, oh well. I like is ADP but I feel like maybe in a few weeks it's going to rise.

 

6 hours ago, bgar15 said:

It'sactually amazing how much the overall "outlook" and opinions on Gurley has changed from pages 25/26 to page 30/31.

 

 

 

 

;-)

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5 hours ago, ninjacookies said:

To be completely honest does anyone have an answer for that? You can say that about so many players in the league. Bad years happen even with studs. You should know that since you're a huge Nuk fan. I have confidence in the talent and the new offense. 

 

OC changed halfway through 2015. 

 

It was mentioned pages ago, it continues to be ignored. 

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Probably because Cignetti (the former offensive coordinator) was fired on December 7, 2015; 3/4 of the way through the season. The first game the new offensive coordinator (Boras) called was Week 14 against the Lions; which also happened to the last time Gurley rushed for 100+ yards (followed by a 21/48/1 game).

Edited by dabeesta17
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On ‎8‎/‎23‎/‎2017 at 11:57 AM, bgar15 said:

 

If so, what's Gurley's basement in your opinion? Because he put up a whopping 3.2 YPC in 2016 and still finished as a top 20 RB.

 

If that's his "basement", I'll take it.

I suppose.  I am thinking of going Ajayi/Gurley if available in one league.  Two guys with upside but two guys that could tank or be average. What the hell.

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On 8/23/2017 at 2:06 PM, dabeesta17 said:

why was Gurley so much worse with the exact same offensive scheme ... in 2016?

 

On 8/23/2017 at 2:16 PM, ninjacookies said:

To be completely honest does anyone have an answer for that?

 

On 8/23/2017 at 7:24 PM, Iron-cock said:

OC changed halfway through 2015.

 

On 8/23/2017 at 7:57 PM, dabeesta17 said:

Probably because Cignetti (the former offensive coordinator) was fired on December 7, 2015; 3/4 of the way through the season. The first game the new offensive coordinator (Boras) called was Week 14 against the Lions; which also happened to the last time Gurley rushed for 100+ yards (followed by a 21/48/1 game).

 

Ok, it was changed halfway through Gurley's season which didn't start until week October, not including the warm up game he had in late September coming back from injury where he only got 6 carries.

 

The difference was night and day, I'm not sure how you can honestly claim had the "same offensive scheme".

 

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I'm targeting him at #6. Just got a pretty good feeling about him. 

 

I did an espn live mock the other day. I drafted Gurley at 6 overall and it started a serious run of runningbacks. Pretty much every other RB in the 1st-2nd round contention went in the following 5-6 picks. I've never seen that before. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Glancing over the Rams schedule, they miss a home game vs the 49ers (week 17), and have a pretty darn tough post-bye schedule. I'm pretty nervous about drafting Gurley, but the thing is if he's the best avail and you pass, you're taking a shot on Fournette or Miller which I like even less (some may disagree there). I feel like I'm going to end up taking Gurley, hating myself for it, but watching him post respectable enough numbers that may not pay off his ADP, yet still gives me a solid starting rb on most weeks. 

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2 hours ago, Dylanfan66 said:

I suppose.  I am thinking of going Ajayi/Gurley if available in one league.  Two guys with upside but two guys that could tank or be average. What the hell.

 

I have pick 9 on Sunday and am seriously considering this as well.  I have no reasoning behind it, but I think Gurley is more 2 years ago than last year.

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6 minutes ago, PBC22 said:

 

I have pick 9 on Sunday and am seriously considering this as well.  I have no reasoning behind it, but I think Gurley is more 2 years ago than last year.

Same. I'm in a keeper league and 5 of the top 9 RBs are being kept. With the 8th pick, it's between Gurley, T.Y. and Dez for me, and I'm keeping two WRs. Think have to go best available RB with Gurley. Hope he can produce like an RB1 and make it worth it.

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