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Todd Gurley 2017 Season Outlook


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3 minutes ago, mmcalli884 said:

Guys are really considering taking him at 6 overall?   That is prime Tier 1 WR territory. I can see him in the middle to late 2nd, but the 1st round seems steep.

This kind of going to the draft strategy thread. But I haven't done a mock yet that has Gurley, Ayaji, Howard, Freeman, or Gordon even slip past picks 18. So the idea is to ignore ADP and pick the guy I like the best. 

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Thats pretty much what I figured. That they had some vendetta or score to settle. I'm all for players having critics and naysayers because that's what creates discussion around here. But if you're gon

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7 minutes ago, klindsay87 said:

Same. I'm in a keeper league and 5 of the top 9 RBs are being kept. With the 8th pick, it's between Gurley, T.Y. and Dez for me, and I'm keeping two WRs. Think have to go best available RB with Gurley. Hope he can produce like an RB1 and make it worth it.

Hope is not a plan.

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I was extremely down on Gurley a few weeks ago, as evidenced in this thread.

But McVay and the rest of this organization appears to have righted the ship enough to make me stop beating up on this guy. I still don't think he can put a team on his back mentally...and I still don't think there's enough of a discount baked into his ADP...but I'm always willing to admit that when I see the needle move, my position on a player moves with it.

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Taking Gurley at #6 is insanity.  Those who do such a thing, will come to regret it.  Take this from someone who had Gurley the last two years.  While he's not a DND for me, there's easily 10 RBs I would take before him.  Tread with caution.

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36 minutes ago, Proteus said:

I was extremely down on Gurley a few weeks ago, as evidenced in this thread.

But McVay and the rest of this organization appears to have righted the ship enough to make me stop beating up on this guy. I still don't think he can put a team on his back mentally...and I still don't think there's enough of a discount baked into his ADP...but I'm always willing to admit that when I see the needle move, my position on a player moves with it.

 

 

So many fantasy players seem to forget last season is not this season when it comes to player selection. Thats' why the stable elite producers are valued and the guys who can identify the risers and fallers before the consensus win championships

Edited by dashoe
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25 minutes ago, Goatstain3 said:

Taking Gurley at #6 is insanity.  Those who do such a thing, will come to regret it.  Take this from someone who had Gurley the last two years.  While he's not a DND for me, there's easily 10 RBs I would take before him.  Tread with caution.

 

Damn thank God you came in here and said something substantial and backed up your fears with a lot of numbers and statistics. I was seriously considering taking him, but after your thorough analysis I'm definitely out.

 

Thanks man. 

Edited by TheDoctor
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28 minutes ago, Goatstain3 said:

Taking Gurley at #6 is insanity.  Those who do such a thing, will come to regret it.  Take this from someone who had Gurley the last two years.  While he's not a DND for me, there's easily 10 RBs I would take before him.  Tread with caution.

 

3 minutes ago, TheDoctor said:

 

Damn thank God you came in here and said something substantial and backed up your fears with a lot of numbers and statistics. I was seriously considering taking him, but after your thorough analysis I'm definitely out.

 

Thanks man. 

 

 

I agree with TheDoctor ... The only fantasy advice I have received better than Goatstain3 in the last year or so is from my grandma

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15 minutes ago, dashoe said:

 

 

So many fantasy players seem to forget last season is not this season when it comes to player selection. Thats' why the stable elite producers are valued and the guys who can identify the risers and fallers before the consensus win championships

And therein is the biggest problem with preseason rankings. Everyone gets so hung up on what happened last year. Only the truly great players repeat great seasons. 

 

Take Devante Adams and Randall Cobb as an example. Adams gets all the TDs in 2016, and now everyone loves him and drops Cobb down. 

 

When looking at Gurley, he's had one good season and one blah season. He's one of the most physically gifted runners in the league. I think he's better than his performance last year. 

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30 minutes ago, Goatstain3 said:

Taking Gurley at #6 is insanity.  Those who do such a thing, will come to regret it.  Take this from someone who had Gurley the last two years.  While he's not a DND for me, there's easily 10 RBs I would take before him.  Tread with caution.

 

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About half the people will regret their first round picks anyway. It's fantasy football. 

 

Tread with caution with just about any RB that isn't Bell, Elliot, or DJ. 

 

I really don't think there's a point to say something like "take it from someone who has owned Gurley the last 2 years". What's the point? This isn't some obscure player who has been off the radar that only an owner can have insight on.  I personally thought Gurley was going too high last year as "the next big thing".  The hype as died, he's a 2nd rounder now.  Just the fact that he's going to get 300 carries if he stays healthy provides a very high floor for him. At worst he's going to be an RB2, at best he shows what made him an elite prospect for a new coach.   

 

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1 hour ago, dashoe said:

 

 

So many fantasy players seem to forget last season is not this season when it comes to player selection. Thats' why the stable elite producers are valued and the guys who can identify the risers and fallers before the consensus win championships

I watched every episode of All or Nothing Season 2 on Amazon recently, and McVay takes over in the last 1 and 1/2 episodes. The difference in energy and passion and team culture is immediate.

Connect that to the Watkins acquisition, and Goff looking at least potentially competent and you have a whole new team.

Underlying truth: Good god Jeff Fisher was a cadaver.

 

 

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1 hour ago, JSA2422 said:

 

To be fair - any stat reposts at this point in time especially for Gurley, will be extremely redundant. This thread did a great job (most threads on the forum rly) of explaining both bullish and bearish sides of Gurley. I don't mind the forums but I was always curious how these threads could evolve if used in a different format (think reddit, upvotes/etc). 

 

 

 

I was really bearish on Gurley early in the thread.  Now I'm thinking Jeff Fisher was a cancer.

Gurley was phenomenal the first half of his rookie year.  Teams watched footage and didn't respect the passing game.

 

Goof, I mean Goff, is looking like an overall #1 pick (don't say Borltes....who did throw 35 TD passes two years ago?).  New HC is a TE coach.  New OC is a QB coach.

Cooper Kupp looks solid.

Sammy Watkins didn't get his 5th year team option which guarantees a ton of money..  The Rams gave up a #2 pick for him.  Watkins is playing for a big long term deal, or a franchise tag.  The guy is finally healthy and needs to play when he is hurt for financial reasons.  Don't hate because it's popular.

 

Couple days ago I asked some people what are the odds of Johnson and Bell not finishing #1 overall, and who would the surprise guy be?

David Johnson had NO passing game support last year and unsustainable TDs.

Bell hasn't practiced yet and is always hurt...hammy?

McCoy will get TONs of usage, but he's already beat up.  I like Jonathan Williams.

Melvin Gordon can't make it through a full season as a feature back. No backup.  Not an Oliver fan.

Howard?  Maybe.

Ajayi only had 4 games over 80 yards last year.  Little passing down work.  Kinda scary.

NFL has already reviewed the "new information" that was filed with Zeke's appeal.  They are arguing procedure.

Doug Martin lost all his guaranteed money.  Last time he was in a contract year, he finished RB3.

 

Gurley?  Can he finish #1?  

Wade Phillips is the new DC.  He always has a top 3 defense.  Rams were #9 last year.  Lead = Running game.

Defenses in their division are over rated.  Dan Quinn took the head job in Atlanta.  SEA has sucked since he left.  49ers?  Please.  ARI defense left in free agency.  Gurley should light up his division.

 

They also picked up Cincinnati's pro-bowl left tackle.  That helps.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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10 minutes ago, jmausen said:

 

I was really bearish on Gurley early in the thread.  Now I'm thinking Jeff Fisher was a cancer.

Gurley was phenomenal the first half of his rookie year.  Teams watched footage and didn't respect the passing game.

 

Goof, I mean Goff, is looking like an overall #1 pick (don't say Borltes....who did throw 35 TD passes two years ago?).  New HC is a TE coach.  New OC is a QB coach.

Cooper Kupp looks solid.

Sammy Watkins didn't get his 5th year team option which guarantees a ton of money..  The Rams gave up a #2 pick for him.  Watkins is playing for a big long term deal, or a franchise tag.  The guy is finally healthy and needs to play when he is hurt for financial reasons.  Don't hate because it's popular.

 

Couple days ago I asked some people what are the odds of Johnson and Bell not finishing #1 overall, and who would the surprise guy be?

David Johnson had NO passing game support last year and unsustainable TDs.

Bell hasn't practiced yet and is always hurt...hammy?

McCoy will get TONs of usage, but he's already beat up.  I like Jonathan Williams.

Melvin Gordon can't make it through a full season as a feature back. No backup.  Not an Oliver fan.

Howard?  Maybe.

Ajayi only had 4 games over 80 yards last year.  Little passing down work.  Kinda scary.

NFL has already reviewed the "new information" that was filed with Zeke's appeal.  They are arguing procedure.

Doug Martin lost all his guaranteed money.  Last time he was in a contract year, he finished RB3.

 

Gurley?  Can he finish #1?  

Wade Phillips is the new DC.  He always has a top 3 defense.  Rams were #9 last year.  Lead = Running game.

Defenses in their division are over rated.  Dan Quinn took the head job in Atlanta.  SEA has sucked since he left.  49ers?  Please.  ARI defense left in free agency.  Gurley should light up his division.

 

They also picked up Cincinnati's pro-bowl left tackle.  That helps.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

My post got deleted for some reason but good recap on the bull case and welcome to the good guys! 

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7 hours ago, mmcalli884 said:

Guys are really considering taking him at 6 overall?   That is prime Tier 1 WR territory. I can see him in the middle to late 2nd, but the 1st round seems steep.

 

7 hours ago, klindsay87 said:

Same. I'm in a keeper league and 5 of the top 9 RBs are being kept. With the 8th pick, it's between Gurley, T.Y. and Dez for me, and I'm keeping two WRs. Think have to go best available RB with Gurley. Hope he can produce like an RB1 and make it worth it.

Always interesting to read posts like the above. The only nugget of information people want to gain from a post about when you pick him is where you have him ranked. It is useless to tell people that you're taking him really high because x y z are being kept and you already have three tier 1 WRs as your keeper picks. Nobody cares. I'm gathering from your post above that you have Gurley as RB10? 

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"I'm targeting him at #6. Just got a pretty good feeling about him. 

 

I did an espn live mock the other day. I drafted Gurley at 6 overall and it started a serious run of runningbacks. Pretty much every other RB in the 1st-2nd round contention went in the following 5-6 picks. I've never seen that before. "

 

 

Mine was in response to Tenney who did it in a mock and it appears to be a redraft.

Edited by mmcalli884
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1 hour ago, jmausen said:

 

I was really bearish on Gurley early in the thread.  Now I'm thinking Jeff Fisher was a cancer.

Gurley was phenomenal the first half of his rookie year.  Teams watched footage and didn't respect the passing game.

 

Goof, I mean Goff, is looking like an overall #1 pick (don't say Borltes....who did throw 35 TD passes two years ago?).  New HC is a TE coach.  New OC is a QB coach.

Cooper Kupp looks solid.

Sammy Watkins didn't get his 5th year team option which guarantees a ton of money..  The Rams gave up a #2 pick for him.  Watkins is playing for a big long term deal, or a franchise tag.  The guy is finally healthy and needs to play when he is hurt for financial reasons.  Don't hate because it's popular.

 

Couple days ago I asked some people what are the odds of Johnson and Bell not finishing #1 overall, and who would the surprise guy be?

David Johnson had NO passing game support last year and unsustainable TDs.

Bell hasn't practiced yet and is always hurt...hammy?

McCoy will get TONs of usage, but he's already beat up.  I like Jonathan Williams.

Melvin Gordon can't make it through a full season as a feature back. No backup.  Not an Oliver fan.

Howard?  Maybe.

Ajayi only had 4 games over 80 yards last year.  Little passing down work.  Kinda scary.

NFL has already reviewed the "new information" that was filed with Zeke's appeal.  They are arguing procedure.

Doug Martin lost all his guaranteed money.  Last time he was in a contract year, he finished RB3.

 

Gurley?  Can he finish #1?  

Wade Phillips is the new DC.  He always has a top 3 defense.  Rams were #9 last year.  Lead = Running game.

Defenses in their division are over rated.  Dan Quinn took the head job in Atlanta.  SEA has sucked since he left.  49ers?  Please.  ARI defense left in free agency.  Gurley should light up his division.

 

They also picked up Cincinnati's pro-bowl left tackle.  That helps.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

I think all these scenarios playing out is a stretch, but case by case they're all quite possible. Gurley has a complete and utter stranglehold on that backfield's usage. If the offense moves the ball even a little bit, he's going to get an obscene amount of touches and all of the red zone work.

 

 

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7 hours ago, TheDoctor said:

 

Damn thank God you came in here and said something substantial and backed up your fears with a lot of numbers and statistics. I was seriously considering taking him, but after your thorough analysis I'm definitely out.

 

Thanks man. 

Give me a break, does anyone need to give you Gurley's CRAPPY stats to say he's not worth drafting in the 1st round?

 

When's the last time Gurley ran for over 100 yards rushing Doc?

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