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Todd Gurley 2017 Season Outlook


FlashGordon401
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Hate to be this guy, but could somebody sum up the reasons to be optimistic for a Gurley bounce back? It's looking unlikely that I will land Ajayi in the second so I need to start looking elsewhere and Gurley seems like a good bet for volume

 

 

Edited by FinsUp24
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36 minutes ago, FinsUp24 said:

Hate to be this guy, but could somebody sum up the reasons to be optimistic for a Gurley bounce back? It's looking unlikely that I will land Ajayi in the second so I need to start looking elsewhere and Gurley seems like a good bet for volume

 

 

workload, new coach, Watkins they have more of a passing threat. no 3rd down back.

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24 minutes ago, lolcopter said:

would be comfortable with this gamble as a RB2, would hate my team if he was my RB1

 

I get a chuckle when I see posts like this. There's only 2 teams that can get DJ and Bell. Considering a 12 team league, somehow the other 10 guys have to find someone to be their RB1. I find it hard to believe Gurley wouldn't be one of those 10 candidates.

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12 minutes ago, SkinsChargersFan said:

 

Well he's going in the 2nd round, so if he's your RB2, it probably means you're not gonna like your WR1.

 

I dont agree with that. In my office league I have Mccoy and Gurley as 1 2 rb punch

 

but i also have keenan allen, Stefon DIggs, and Jarvis landry and my 123 wr punch .... so I think you can do fine with a rb rb wr wr wr  draft ... even if you hate some of my wr's you probably could get someone you like instead....

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5 minutes ago, Sonny_D said:

 

I get a chuckle when I see posts like this. There's only 2 teams that can get DJ and Bell. Considering a 12 team league, somehow the other 10 guys have to find someone to be their RB1. I find it hard to believe Gurley wouldn't be one of those 10 candidates.

 

I guess the implication being that I'm probably going RB-RB if I want gurley on my roster.

 

[csb]i'm picking 1 or 7 so i won't be in a position where he's my first RB picked[/csb]

Edited by lolcopter
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2 hours ago, Sonny_D said:

 

I get a chuckle when I see posts like this. 

 

Yet people and experts even always say that. Of course I always want a player cheaper. Would love to have Julio Jones as my wr2, I'm just OK with it as my number 1.

 

Yes of course you rather have Gurley as your  second best back to start a season, but if you're in a redraft snake that's going to be the case very rarely in a shallow league.

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On 8/26/2017 at 1:12 PM, dnorma2 said:

 

I dont agree with that. In my office league I have Mccoy and Gurley as 1 2 rb punch

 

but i also have keenan allen, Stefon DIggs, and Jarvis landry and my 123 wr punch .... so I think you can do fine with a rb rb wr wr wr  draft ... even if you hate some of my wr's you probably could get someone you like instead....

 

I'd rather have Gurley as my RB1 than Keenan Allen as my WR1

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I like Gurley, but the more I think about it, if my RB choices are Gurley, Crowell, Zeke, Fournette, or Lamar Miller, I think I may punt the RB position there and just grab a sure thing in Gronk or even Aaron Rodgers.  Drafting at the end of the round really is tough this year.  Gurley would seem like the best option of those RBs listed simply from a volume perspective and having possibly all 3 downs to himself.  That said though, Goff looks just as terrible as he did last season, so expectations have to be kept in check.  If you pass on Gurley, you can always hope to get one of the hotshot rookies at the 3-4 turn like McCaffrey, Cook, Kareem Hunt (although secret now out), etc.

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8 minutes ago, CooL said:

I like Gurley, but the more I think about it, if my RB choices are Gurley, Crowell, Zeke, Fournette, or Lamar Miller, I think I may punt the RB position there and just grab a sure thing in Gronk or even Aaron Rodgers.  Drafting at the end of the round really is tough this year.  Gurley would seem like the best option of those RBs listed simply from a volume perspective and having possibly all 3 downs to himself.  That said though, Goff looks just as terrible as he did last season, so expectations have to be kept in check.  If you pass on Gurley, you can always hope to get one of the hotshot rookies at the 3-4 turn like McCaffrey, Cook, Kareem Hunt (although secret now out), etc.

 

interesting I'm thinking a different way for ppr grab gurley in 2nd because of watkins in LA if i can't get ajayi  and 3rd rd grab hyde(i like better than crowell-zeke-fournette-miller) or the best pass catcher available which right now is kelce on my board.

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2 minutes ago, dashoe said:

 

interesting I'm thinking a different way for ppr grab gurley in 2nd because of watkins in LA if i can't get ajayi  and 3rd rd grab hyde(i like better than crowell-zeke-fournette-miller) or the best pass catcher available which right now is kelce on my board.

I've got a 14 teamer drafting today, and my plan is to take Gurley in the 2nd and Hunt in the 3rd. Right where you'd take Hyde 

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Just now, Experienced Rookie said:

I've got a 14 teamer drafting today, and my plan is to take Gurley in the 2nd and Hunt in the 3rd. Right where you'd take Hyde 


Good plan.

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19 minutes ago, Experienced Rookie said:

I've got a 14 teamer drafting today, and my plan is to take Gurley in the 2nd and Hunt in the 3rd. Right where you'd take Hyde 

 

This is where I'm at. Elite wr1 round 1, Gurley round 2, and back up his risk with Cook/Hunt in the 3rd, then someone like Martin or Abdullah in the 6th. For as much as people see wr depth avail later, I think Gurley-Cook-Martin is more than good enough to go with AJ and two other good wr's. My two cents. 

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On 8/26/2017 at 1:08 PM, Sonny_D said:

 

I get a chuckle when I see posts like this. There's only 2 teams that can get DJ and Bell. Considering a 12 team league, somehow the other 10 guys have to find someone to be their RB1. I find it hard to believe Gurley wouldn't be one of those 10 candidates.

He DIDN'T say it wasn't a possibility he said he would hate it if Gurley was RB1 which is certainly understandable given Gurley's track record.

 

3.3 yards a carry last year(beyond garbage)

One 100+yard rushing games in his last 20+ games?

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In 2016

 

Rams had 5 games in which they didn't score a touchdown. Another 5 games in which they only scored 1 touchdown. They finished the season going 1-11 after a 3-1 start. They ranked dead last in points scored, yards, 1st downs, and average yards per drive. They started Case Keenum at Quarterback for half the year and then gave the reigns to the rookie Goff. 

 

They went up against some pretty stout rushing defenses. 

 

#1 ranked Seattle rushing D (2x)

#2 ranked Giants rushing D (1x)

#3 ranked Arizona rushing D (2x)

#4 ranked Jets rushing D (1x)

#8 ranked Pats rushing D (1x)

#9 ranked Panthers rushing D (1x)

 

After all that. This dude was still a fantasy relevant runningback finishing as a low end RB2 in standard. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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6 minutes ago, Tenner said:

In 2016

 

Rams had 5 games in which they didn't score a touchdown. Another 5 games in which they only scored 1 touchdown. They finished the season going 1-11 after a 3-1 start. They ranked dead last in points scored, yards, 1st downs, and average yards per drive. They started Case Keenum at Quarterback for half the year and then gave the reigns to the rookie Goff. 

 

They went up against some pretty stout rushing defenses. 

 

#1 ranked Seattle rushing D (2x)

#2 ranked Giants rushing D (1x)

#3 ranked Arizona rushing D (2x)

#4 ranked Jets rushing D (1x)

#8 ranked Pats rushing D (1x)

#9 ranked Panthers rushing D (1x)

 

After all that. This dude was still a fantasy relevant runningback finishing as a low end RB2 in standard. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Isn't his strength of schedule even harder this year? 

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14 minutes ago, Bugs bunny said:

Isn't his strength of schedule even harder this year? 


Doesn't his team have a plethora of receiving options, a better gameplan, better coaching, and better o-line?

We could just keep looking at 16 week schedules though.

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32 minutes ago, ponza88 said:


Doesn't his team have a plethora of receiving options, a better gameplan, better coaching, and better o-line?

We could just keep looking at 16 week schedules though.

Yes they do have many receiving options.  I have absolutely no idea nor has anyone else about whether or not they have a better game plan.  That's to be determined.  Better coaching, and better O-line. Yes sure looks that way.  

I was responding in the context to the poster above about the defenses they faced and how he finished as a low end #2 last year.  While there is certainly room for optimism due to all the changes,  I was just pointing out that he has another very tough schedule this year.  That's all.  You can read into that however you like.  Obviously that info about schedule doesn't concern you for all the reasons you stated and that's fine.  Everyone's entitled to their own opinions.  I was just adding to the thread for those who are interested.  

 

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I'm all in. With a mid round pick (6,7) in 12 man leagues.

 

This guy is 99/100 times the best option. Gronk is the only player I can consider, but I'm buying in on the bounce-back.

 

In most cases, I end up going McCoy/Freeman and than grab Gurley for my RB2. 

 

I like the team look b/c of the WR talent for later rounds, which will have guaranteed value when everybody else worried about RB's.

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On 8/25/2017 at 9:17 AM, Iron-cock said:

 

 

 

 

Ok, it was changed halfway through Gurley's season which didn't start until week October, not including the warm up game he had in late September coming back from injury where he only got 6 carries.

 

The difference was night and day, I'm not sure how you can honestly claim had the "same offensive scheme".

 

l91iowq.png

 

y7UQN70.png

 

 

Well Gurley had the last 100+ yard rushing game of his career (140 with 2 TDs) against the Lions Week 14, 2015, with the new coordinator you say is terrible. I'm not sure how you can honestly claim that an offensive coordinator change in December of 2015 made Gurley the plodder he is now?

 

EDIT: also you're just trying to be cute with stats and impress people by highlighting "per 16 games." If we're doing that, we have 16 games of Gurley in 2016 with the offensive coordinator that orchestrated his last 100+ yard game that you say sucks, to look at. Its not pretty.

Edited by dabeesta17
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On 8/23/2017 at 2:06 PM, dabeesta17 said:

 

So when Jeff Fisher coached the Rams to a 7-9 record and Gurley to a 229/1106/10 rookie season in 2015, what was that?

 

And why was Gurley so much worse with the exact same offensive scheme and the same offensive line in 2016?

 

On 8/23/2017 at 7:24 PM, Iron-cock said:

 

OC changed halfway through 2015. 

 

It was mentioned pages ago, it continues to be ignored. 

 

On 8/23/2017 at 7:57 PM, dabeesta17 said:

Probably because Cignetti (the former offensive coordinator) was fired on December 7, 2015; 3/4 of the way through the season. The first game the new offensive coordinator (Boras) called was Week 14 against the Lions; which also happened to the last time Gurley rushed for 100+ yards (followed by a 21/48/1 game).

 

On 8/25/2017 at 0:17 PM, Iron-cock said:

 

 

 

 

Ok, it was changed halfway through Gurley's season which didn't start until week October, not including the warm up game he had in late September coming back from injury where he only got 6 carries.

 

The difference was night and day, I'm not sure how you can honestly claim had the "same offensive scheme".

 

l91iowq.png

 

y7UQN70.png

 

 

27 minutes ago, dabeesta17 said:

 

Well Gurley had the last 100+ yard rushing game of his career (140 with 2 TDs) against the Lions Week 14, 2015, with the new coordinator you say is terrible. I'm not sure how you can honestly claim that an offensive coordinator change in December of 2015 made Gurley the plodder he is now?

 

EDIT: also you're just trying to be cute with stats and impress people by highlighting "per 16 games." If we're doing that, we have 16 games of Gurley in 2016 with the offensive coordinator that orchestrated his last 100+ yard game that you say sucks, to look at. Its not pretty.

 

I didn't think posting images was impressive.  I guess it depends on where you set the bar.

 

As far as being "cute" you can ask pro-football-reference why they're trying to be "cute" and "impress" people by including it on their website.

 

I'm not sure what value you're adding to the conversation here, I made a factual argument, backed up by screenshots and statistics.

 

 

 

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10 minutes ago, Iron-cock said:

 

 

 

 

 

I didn't think posting images was impressive.  I guess it depends on where you set the bar.

 

As far as being "cute" you can ask pro-football-reference why they're trying to be "cute" and "impress" people by including it on their website.

 

I'm not sure what value you're adding to the conversation here, I made a factual argument, backed up by screenshots and statistics.

 

 

 

 

The only factual point that matters here is that Boras (the new OC in December 2015) was the coordinator for Gurley's last 100+ yard game. Yet you're trying to make it sound like he is the reason Gurley sucks now. Your screenshots don't make a bad, pointless argument good. It just highlights how bad the argument is. The bar is set with performance on the field for players. You're blaming a coordinator for Gurley being a plodder. I'm blaming Gurley. That is the difference here.

Edited by dabeesta17
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17 minutes ago, dabeesta17 said:

The only factual point that matters here is that Boras (the new OC in December 2015) was the coordinator for Gurley's last 100+ yard game. 

You're belaboring an arbitrary number. He can blame the coordinator. You're blaming Gurley. Great. The argument can end here, especially considering he's providing evidence to support his claim while you're providing nothing of value.

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