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Todd Gurley 2017 Season Outlook


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7 hours ago, pastorofmuppets2 said:

 

unless i'm taking your stream of consciousness outta context, 5/56 in the passing game is a cool 10 spot in PPR ... uhh, yeah, that kinda means a hell of a lot in fantasy B)

 

I'm terrible at writing, so yeah out of context, I was refering to how well the play action worked that means little to fantasy.

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Thats pretty much what I figured. That they had some vendetta or score to settle. I'm all for players having critics and naysayers because that's what creates discussion around here. But if you're gon

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Saw the entire game. 

 

The bad: 

-run blocking still a mess. 

-Too many penalties

-A couple of phantom holding calls negating several nice runs

 

The good:

-pass blocking much improved, giving Goff the time to read the field;

 

-Which, in concert with better weapons, and a year of growth and coaching change, will open up the defense and relieve pressure in the box.

 

-Which will minimize predictability of play-calling 

 

-Which will lead to more scoring opportunities and goal line plunges.

 

All this, plus increased usage in passing game, and a lack of threat for touches, AND a stronger defense benfitting amount of possessions and game-competiveness,  should keep Gurley afloat and a strong candidate for mid-low end RB1 status.

 

Though we would all welcome improvements to YPC, there is certainly more to be encouraged about this year as opposed to last.

 

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I'm contemplating trying to sell.  

 

I think Gurley will have a solid year, but he doesn't look like a supreme talent to me anymore.  His vision is poor and his burst is average.  I think this caps his value in an offense that, while improved, will still have its ups and downs this season.

 

There are some RB1 candidates who are still valued lower than Gurley who I think will outscored him going forward.  I liked what I saw from Ty Montgomery yesterday... I may make an approach to the owner and see if I can get a WR upgrade thrown in as well.

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8 minutes ago, Pooskay said:

I think it's safe to say that one big year from Gurley was a fluke.

 

16 minutes ago, SkinsChargersFan said:

I'm contemplating trying to sell.  

 

I think Gurley will have a solid year, but he doesn't look like a supreme talent to me anymore.  His vision is poor and his burst is average.  I think this caps his value in an offense that, while improved, will still have its ups and downs this season.

 

There are some RB1 candidates who are still valued lower than Gurley who I think will outscored him going forward.  I liked what I saw from Ty Montgomery yesterday... I may make an approach to the owner and see if I can get a WR upgrade thrown in as well.

 

30 minutes ago, Goatstain3 said:

If he didn't get the volume he does, he would barely be a flex play.  I can't believe this is the same player, I saw in 2015.  I don't know what happened to the guy.  But, the difference is night and day.  

Guy puts up RB1 numbers and you're poopooing it in the first game of the season, in which he was pulled out after the 3rd quarter.

 

Rotoworld forums posters are hard people to please.

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19 minutes ago, oliminator123 said:

 

 

Guy puts up RB1 numbers and you're poopooing it in the first game of the season, in which he was pulled out after the 3rd quarter.

 

Rotoworld forums posters are hard people to please.

 

I never said I wasn't pleased with yesterday, of course I loved the production.  But you can't deny what your eyes tell you when you watch him play football.

 

There are instances where 2 + 2 don't always add up in fantasy football and guys keep producing despite what the eye test tells you (Melvin Gordon 2016), but more often than not it pays to get ahead of the guys who only read the box score and then complain when an average player with an above average reputation stops producing.

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3 minutes ago, SkinsChargersFan said:

 

I never said I wasn't pleased with yesterday, of course I loved the production.  But you can't deny what your eyes tell you when you watch him play football.

 

There are instances where 2 + 2 don't always add up in fantasy football and guys keep producing despite what the eye test tells you (Melvin Gordon 2016), but more often than not it pays to get ahead of the guys who only read the box score and then complain when an average player with an above average reputation stops producing.

 

Putting up a little over 2 YPC, at home, against a dreadful Colts team is not a very good sign.

 

He'll get away with it the next couple weeks vs WAS and @SF. 

 

If a mediocre per carry performance continues I'd be looking to sell HARD before this stretch:

 

@DAL

SEA

@JAX

AZ

BYE

@NYG

HOU

@MN

 

GULP

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8 minutes ago, SkinsChargersFan said:

 

I never said I wasn't pleased with yesterday, of course I loved the production.  But you can't deny what your eyes tell you when you watch him play football.

 

There are instances where 2 + 2 don't always add up in fantasy football and guys keep producing despite what the eye test tells you (Melvin Gordon 2016), but more often than not it pays to get ahead of the guys who only read the box score and then complain when an average player with an above average reputation stops producing.

 

Melvin Gordon had numerous 100 yfs games and also ran for 170 yards last year in a game. The hate for Melvin Gordon in 2016 is ridiculous.

 

That being said, I would move Gurley as well if you want a player that's more efficient and on a better offense. You may be able to fool some box score watching people and score an upgrade.

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Gurley doesn't look very elite. He's not shifty like DJ and isn't patient like Bell. He just blasts straight up the middle into a wall and falls forward for 2-3 yards every play and then repeats. Hopefully coach can get him on the edge more.

 

I own 0 shares of Gurley so I'm not biased either way.

 

It's true that he gets unmatched volume but he just doesn't look like a very impressive runner (at least in my inexperienced opinion). I would look to sell if you can get another RB1 or WR1 in return.

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8 minutes ago, PlayTheWaivers said:

 

Melvin Gordon had numerous 100 yfs games and also ran for 170 yards last year in a game. The hate for Melvin Gordon in 2016 is ridiculous.

 

That being said, I would move Gurley as well if you want a player that's more efficient and on a better offense. You may be able to fool some box score watching people and score an upgrade.

 

DJ owners are ripe atm ... if anyone is looking to move the kid, strike while the iron is hot ?

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11 minutes ago, SkinsChargersFan said:

 

I never said I wasn't pleased with yesterday, of course I loved the production.  But you can't deny what your eyes tell you when you watch him play football.

 

There are instances where 2 + 2 don't always add up in fantasy football and guys keep producing despite what the eye test tells you (Melvin Gordon 2016), but more often than not it pays to get ahead of the guys who only read the box score and then complain when an average player with an above average reputation stops producing.

 

Nobody in this thread wants to hear this. Trent Richardson had three 15+ point PPR games (one 20+) in his third NFL season too; his final NFL season of significance. Selling high right now to a sucker in a PPR league (no way anyone bites in standard) who sees "20 points" is the absolute best fantasy-savvy move to do right now.

 

Richardson (also a 1st round pick) got three seasons and two coaching staffs of chances with his 3.3 yards per carry before vanishing from the NFL. I suspect this will be Gurley's final season in the NFL as well. 19 carries for 40 yards is even worse then 2016 Gurley, with an alleged better running scheme and offense overall. Goff was only sacked once, so the O-line played well against the JV Colts. Every RB has big gains called back on holding penalties, but that seems to be the prevailing excuse now for Gurley's 2 yards per carry yesterday.

 

I'd trade him for Cohen and another high-upside player now. Someone will bite in PPR. Do yourselves a favor and go for the championship with a move like this.

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4 hours ago, CooL said:

Looking some more at this game, I'm not as impressed as I initially was, but I think he's still going to be better than last year (how can he not be?).

 

YPC is abysmal.  But the fact that he is more involved in the passing game helps his PPR floor.  4-5 catches per week, 30-50 yards?  I'll take that.

 

Goff did look better, but the Colts looked really overmatched.  It's one game.  Let's see if they can keep this up against better opponents who also can actually score and apply more pressure on the Rams.

 

He was the #21 RB last year. If he improves just a little, that's pretty good.

 

I see a lot of people here who got burned last year.  I think he's a safe volume play. Yes the Colts matchup was great and his YPC weren't good.  YPC isn't a category and he has no competition.  Hopefully he gets more look in the passing game like yesterday. 5-56. He scored double digits in ppr for just his passing game contributions. That happened ZERO times last year. So I think thats an OK sign for his first game, regardless of defense.

 

Some of you act like there are better ypc backs getting 15-20 carries on the waiver wire. Good luck.  He's not as good as he was in 2015 and he's not as bad as he was last year. Matchups are important, but they arent everything.

 

I also find it humorous guys who come into this thread who say he sucks but should trade him for another RB1.  I hate to break it, up "Todd Gurley" sucks is the casual fantasy football player hot take. He was a big let down last year, let it go. The price went down.  Nobody is arguing he's Bell/David Johnson tier. So what's the point? Why is THAT the bar?

 

I doubt the guy in your league who has him thinks he sucks, but if he does, I would trade FOR him because the common perception is he's trash. 

 

If he stays healthy he'll fall into some big games and have some clunkers, sounds like most RBs who aren't in the elite tier. 

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10 hours ago, pastorofmuppets2 said:

 

unless i'm taking your stream of consciousness outta context, 5/56 in the passing game is a cool 10 spot in PPR ... uhh, yeah, that kinda means a hell of a lot in fantasy B)

I think he's referring to the play action passes that got Goff 4/5 for 80 yards to receivers. Basically saying the threat of Gurley allowed those receivers to get those receptions, which could potentially result in an adjustment for defenses that allows Gurley to benefit.

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19 minutes ago, brockpapersizer said:

 

He was the #21 RB last year. If he improves just a little, that's pretty good.

 

I see a lot of people here who got burned last year.  I think he's a safe volume play. Yes the Colts matchup was great and his YPC weren't good.  YPC isn't a category and he has no competition.  Hopefully he gets more look in the passing game like yesterday. 5-56. He scored double digits in ppr for just his passing game contributions. That happened ZERO times last year. So I think thats an OK sign for his first game, regardless of defense.

 

Some of you act like there are better ypc backs getting 15-20 carries on the waiver wire. Good luck.  He's not as good as he was in 2015 and he's not as bad as he was last year. Matchups are important, but they arent everything.

 

I also find it humorous guys who come into this thread who say he sucks but should trade him for another RB1.  I hate to break it, up "Todd Gurley" sucks is the casual fantasy football player hot take. He was a big let down last year, let it go. The price went down.  Nobody is arguing he's Bell/David Johnson tier. So what's the point? Why is THAT the bar?

 

I doubt the guy in your league who has him thinks he sucks, but if he does, I would trade FOR him because the common perception is he's trash. 

 

If he stays healthy he'll fall into some big games and have some clunkers, sounds like most RBs who aren't in the elite tier. 

 

 

Exactly! You drafted Gurley for the volume of an every down rb! Why are people being critical of his ypc?

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19 minutes ago, nb009 said:

I think he's referring to the play action passes that got Goff 4/5 for 80 yards to receivers. Basically saying the threat of Gurley allowed those receivers to get those receptions, which could potentially result in an adjustment for defenses that allows Gurley to benefit.

 

yes, was clarified earlier by the op, who was woefully bereft of punctuation in the missive i quoted. 

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1 hour ago, NBatum88 said:

Gurley doesn't look very elite. He's not shifty like DJ and isn't patient like Bell. He just blasts straight up the middle into a wall and falls forward for 2-3 yards every play and then repeats. Hopefully coach can get him on the edge more.

 

I own 0 shares of Gurley so I'm not biased either way.

 

It's true that he gets unmatched volume but he just doesn't look like a very impressive runner (at least in my inexperienced opinion). I would look to sell if you can get another RB1 or WR1 in return.

 

Explain to me how owning zero shares of Gurley means that you are not biased either way? 

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4 minutes ago, nb009 said:

 

Explain to me how owning zero shares of Gurley means that you are not biased either way? 

 

Because as a non-owner I could care less how he performs? (Aside from the one week where I'm facing him I guess). If I was an owner I would want him to succeed every week so my opinion would be more biased.

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