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Todd Gurley 2017 Season Outlook


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4 hours ago, markrc99 said:

 

 The play I hate the most and I believe every team runs it, is when the QB is in the gun and the ball carrier lines up somewhere near him. The ball is snapped and every other player on the field explodes off the ball except one... the guy they hand it to. Every defender has taken several steps and the RB is standing there flat-footed & the QB sticks the thing in his belly. It's garbage! Perhaps what OCs will do in the future is simply line up their RB deeper on the pre-snap so that he can get downhill when handed the ball. That was part of the problem with Gordon and could become an issue with Gurley if the priority is Goff.         

I agree to a certain extent, but theres alot of pros to a shotgun run or draw play, even if its just letting the defense know that you will run out of this formation. Sometimes holes need to be set up first, coming in at full speed doesnt allow you the chance to see them everytime. Leveon bell has made a running style out of his patience at the line. Not everyone is bell tho, so this gives the runner another second to visualize. Alot of the time, shotgun formations are attributed to pass plays. If you can get those ends steaming off the line or coming wide you can usually hit some pretty big gains. A draw play is pretty self explanatory. You come out in a passing formation, look like your going to throw and the whole defense backs off, leaving plenty of room for your runner. 

But, it does hold merit that not every runner excels in a shotgun formation. Adrian peterson hates running out of shotgun, and gurley may be another. 

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5 hours ago, markrc99 said:

 

All I know is that around mid-December Gurley publicly compared the offensive philosophy to that of a "middle school" & Fisher was axed like two weeks later.  You may also want to consider that the former coaching staff didn't seem to know what they had in Jared Cook, nor did they ever figure out how to get Tavon Austin going. Despite the "career highs" you emphasize, he had a serious TD regression. Do tell, were either of these receivers ever in your starting lineup? No? Shocked, truly. You don't think Gurley's presence might've had something to do with the coverages each of those guys faced? 

   

 

Its a statistical fact that Tavon Austin and Kenny Britt reached "career highs" as you quote for whatever reason, in receptions and yards in 2016. Its also a fact that the Rams had the same "middle school" offensive philosophy when Gurley enjoyed his 4-game rookie season fluke stretch and when the WRs achieved career marks in 2016. The WRs also did this with a rookie QB who looked over-matched most of the time. No, I don't believe Gurley forced defenses to make any type of special adjustments. There were already eight games of film from 2015 that teams had already studied. Thus in Week 1 of 2016, Gurley had 17 carries for 47 yards against a 49ers defense that ultimately gave up the third-most yards in a season in NFL history.

 

The Rams did everything possible to help Gurley in 2016, specifically doubling his targets and receptions. He's just ineffective; a very limited RB. Good straight-line speed; that's it. Teams figured him out. Its not difficult. Just get in front of him. He has no lateral agility and wants nothing to do with contact. I'm trying to hear all his supporters' arguments, but again, none of them hold water. I just don't understand what you guys are seeing?

 

Jared Cook is enjoying the Aaron Rodgers effect in GB, like James Jones did for a few years. Britt was a solid fantasy asset, particularly as a bye-week filler guy. Unfortunately I had Gurley on my team and passed on Britt when I could have landed him on waivers. Two Rams on a fantasy team isn't good strategy. If I can trade Gurley to someone who is still high on him before our draft in June, I will be ecstatic.

Edited by dabeesta17
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48 minutes ago, vikingapocalypse said:

I agree to a certain extent, but theres alot of pros to a shotgun run or draw play, even if its just letting the defense know that you will run out of this formation. Sometimes holes need to be set up first, coming in at full speed doesnt allow you the chance to see them everytime. Leveon bell has made a running style out of his patience at the line. Not everyone is bell tho, so this gives the runner another second to visualize. Alot of the time, shotgun formations are attributed to pass plays. If you can get those ends steaming off the line or coming wide you can usually hit some pretty big gains. A draw play is pretty self explanatory. You come out in a passing formation, look like your going to throw and the whole defense backs off, leaving plenty of room for your runner. 

But, it does hold merit that not every runner excels in a shotgun formation. Adrian peterson hates running out of shotgun, and gurley may be another. 

 

Bell is so unique in his running style that it's unfair to compare anyone to him.   I've never seen anything like it.

 

Different backs prefer different shotgun or I formation.  Teams would be wise to use the same type of running formations or blocking plays the back used in college or had success with in the pros.  AP is a great example.  DeMarco Murray is another one.   SD drafting a downhill/FB runner in MG3 then having him run out of shotgun as a rookie was a disaster.  

 

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2 minutes ago, dabeesta17 said:

 

No, I don't believe Gurley forced defenses to make any type of special adjustments. There were already eight games of film from 2015 that teams had already studied. 

 

Opposing teams made the adjustment to their Ds attacking the Rams after his four game initial stretch in 2015.

 

Don't believe me?   Go back to 2015 and watch the defensive gameplan Arizona had in their first game vs the Rams and Gurley.  Then watch their second game.  The difference in numbers in the box and gap control will jump out at you. 

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4 minutes ago, 96mnc said:

 

Bell is so unique in his running style that it's unfair to compare anyone to him.   I've never seen anything like it.

 

Agreed 100%.  i was more pointing to his patience at the line, and while his style is unmatchable, the shotgun affords you some of the patience that bell creates all on his own. Bells style is mind blowing.

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Just now, 96mnc said:

 

Opposing teams made the adjustment to their Ds attacking the Rams after his four game initial stretch in 2015.

 

Don't believe me?   Go back to 2015 and watch the defensive gameplan Arizona had in their first game vs the Rams and Gurley.  Then watch their second game.  The difference in numbers in the box and gap control will jump out at you. 

 

Oh I get that. As a fresh rookie, nobody had film on him, thus that 4-game stretch. After that, defenses saw all they had to do is get in front of him; and everyone copy-catted the blueprint. And since then Gurley had had one 100 yard game in his past 24; zero 100 yard games in 2016. I'm saying no exotic defensive schemes or adjustments are/were employed by opposing defenses in 2016. Just play your gap, and Gurley will average 3 yards/carry.

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3 minutes ago, dabeesta17 said:

 

Oh I get that. As a fresh rookie, nobody had film on him, thus that 4-game stretch. After that, defenses saw all they had to do is get in front of him; and everyone copy-catted the blueprint. And since then Gurley had had one 100 yard game in his past 24; zero 100 yard games in 2016. I'm saying no exotic defensive schemes or adjustments are/were employed by opposing defenses in 2016. Just play your gap, and Gurley will average 3 yards/carry.

 

No,  they said we're going to overwhelm the numbers game up front AND we're going to whip this crappy oline to death. I EXPECT a high end rb to beat one free blocker.  It's unrealistic to expect a rb to beat two free blockers especially when one of the free blockers is already in the backfield.  The only rb I've seen do this consistently is Barry Sanders.

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6 minutes ago, 96mnc said:

 

No,  they said we're going to overwhelm the numbers game up front AND we're going to whip this crappy oline to death. I EXPECT a high end rb to beat one free blocker.  It's unrealistic to expect a rb to beat two free blockers especially when one of the free blockers is already in the backfield.  The only rb I've seen do this consistently is Barry Sanders.

 

I'm sorry, but this is just not true. The Rams play a TE and a full back in their base set. That means against 8-man fronts, 7 guys are accounted for; leaving one that Gurley must beat himself. The O-line opened PLENTY of holes. Gurley just lacks vision and lateral agility. Here is a great collection of missed opportunities.

 

1st run (:03),  7 vs. 8; hole opens up; Gurley doesn't see it; run into the back of his blockers

2nd run (:13) 7 vs. 8 again. The cutback is there; Gurley missed it, ran into the back of his blockers again

3rd run (:24) 7 vs. 8 again; Gurley missed an easy 10-yard gain, ran into the back of his blockers for 2-3 yards

4th run (:36) 7 vs. 8 again. GAPING hole up the middle; Gurley runs outside for 2-3 yards

 

You can view the rest of them yourself. It get worse. Very T-Rich like. Blaming the O-line is a cop-out. Gurley simply cannot see holes, is indecisive and limited in talent. Again I just don't understand what his supporters are seeing, other than blind declarations that he's "generational" and what not.

 

 

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6 hours ago, boltup15 said:

 

What about his 2015 stats? He's still only 22. People forget that. 

Fair enough let's look at his stats from his rookie year. Instead of blindly looking at them which you seem to so much despise. 

 

Over his last 8 games he averages 66 YPC at 3.9 YPC. So there's that.

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2 hours ago, devaster said:

I think all last year and the 2nd half of 2015 proved is that Gurley is not a generational talent. The offensive situation did not change all that much between the last 2 seasons. And outside of his first 4-5 games in 2015, he has struggled mightily. If the situation improves in FA/draft he will do better, but I think he is talent is overvalued.

 

 

As mentioned before, the elite backs tend to be on the best teams and it's no coincidence.

You think LeVeon Bell would still be an RB1 on the Rams? No chance. 

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7 minutes ago, CL3VELANDBR0WNS said:

As mentioned before, the elite backs tend to be on the best teams and it's no coincidence.

You think LeVeon Bell would still be an RB1 on the Rams? No chance. 

You may think that, but that is rarely the case. And the Cardinals were not a good last season, but DJ found a way to excel. When they stopped the run he opened things up with his receiving. Gurley was not opening anything up. AP persevered on bad teams without passing games most of his career. Barry Sanders as well.

 

Bell is one of the few lucky ones that gets to operate with a top tier QB, WR and good OLine. It doesn't happen often to great players.

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8 minutes ago, CL3VELANDBR0WNS said:

As mentioned before, the elite backs tend to be on the best teams and it's no coincidence.

You think LeVeon Bell would still be an RB1 on the Rams? No chance. 

There also adrian peterson on the christian ponder led vikings tho, which had absoloutley 0 around him, played against stacked boxes and gameplans against him the whole year, and still went for 2k. We cant really know what would happen with bell on the rams, but we do have an example of an elite back in arguably the same situation. You could point to the oline, but some of these are the same cats who couldnt even make the team this year , are no longer starting, or are medicore starters at best.

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34 minutes ago, Gohawks said:

Fair enough let's look at his stats from his rookie year. Instead of blindly looking at them which you seem to so much despise. 

 

Over his last 8 games he averages 66 YPC at 3.9 YPC. So there's that.

 

I remember those 8 games. I said he was overvalued going into last season. I expected regression. He's going into his 3rd NFL season. He's still only 22. He has a lot of football and learning to do. He's no AP so there's no point in arguing about AP vs Gurley. I think he's a top 5 back in the NFL and will stay as a top 5 back for a long time. 

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33 minutes ago, dabeesta17 said:

 

I'm sorry, but this is just not true. The Rams play a TE and a full back in their base set. That means against 8-man fronts, 7 guys are accounted for; leaving one that Gurley must beat himself. The O-line opened PLENTY of holes. Gurley just lacks vision and lateral agility. Here is a great collection of missed opportunities.

 

1st run (:03),  7 vs. 8; hole opens up; Gurley doesn't see it; run into the back of his blockers

2nd run (:13) 7 vs. 8 again. The cutback is there; Gurley missed it, ran into the back of his blockers again

3rd run (:24) 7 vs. 8 again; Gurley missed an easy 10-yard gain, ran into the back of his blockers for 2-3 yards

4th run (:36) 7 vs. 8 again. GAPING hole up the middle; Gurley runs outside for 2-3 yards

 

You can view the rest of them yourself. It get worse. Very T-Rich like. Blaming the O-line is a cop-out. Gurley simply cannot see holes, is indecisive and limited in talent. Again I just don't understand what his supporters are seeing, other than blind declarations that he's "generational" and what not.

 

 

 

I said in my initial post that he left yards on the field.  Of course he missed some holes.  

 

This highlight (lowlight?) reel is a collection of 8 or so plays over the course of an entire season.  You're seeing a rb that was so used to the hole NOT being there that his patience and vision were shot.  A rb that simply didn't trust the blocking in front of him.   On a eight play sample.

 

If he had displayed this same lack of vision and patience consistently during his rookie year or in college then I'd also call his ability into question.  But that wasn't the case.

 

So where's this same film critique based on his rookie year film?

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1 minute ago, 96mnc said:

 

I said in my initial post that he left yards on the field.  Of course he missed some holes.  

 

This highlight (lowlight?) reel is a collection of 8 or so plays over the course of an entire season.  You're seeing a rb that was so used to the hole NOT being there that his patience and vision were shot.  A rb that simply didn't trust the blocking in front of him.   On a eight play sample.

 

If he had displayed this same lack of vision and patience consistently during his rookie year or in college then I'd also call his ability into question.  But that wasn't the case.

 

So where's this same film critique based on his rookie year film?

I agree but in this day and age, its all about what youve done for me lately. What he left out there last year has to be worrysome regardless of past production. Can he bounce back? Sure. But when someone is getting progressively worse then better, its a major concern to any team.

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1 minute ago, boltup15 said:

 

I remember those 8 games. I said he was overvalued going into last season. I expected regression. He's going into his 3rd NFL season. He's still only 22. He has a lot of football and learning to do. He's no AP so there's no point in arguing about AP vs Gurley. I think he's a top 5 back in the NFL and will stay as a top 5 back for a long time. 

 

That's a stretch. The 2nd year after a ACL tear is supposed to be much better than the first, yet he was horrid. Getting under 3.5 ypc despite getting 275+ carries is the definition of a plodder, no matter who you are. 

 

He's not going to be a value in drafts, bc someone will still think he's the next AP and draft him way above what his on-field performance deserves. 

 

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25 minutes ago, devaster said:

You may think that, but that is rarely the case. And the Cardinals were not a good last season, but DJ found a way to excel. When they stopped the run he opened things up with his receiving. Gurley was not opening anything up. AP persevered on bad teams without passing games most of his career. Barry Sanders as well.

 

Bell is one of the few lucky ones that gets to operate with a top tier QB, WR and good OLine. It doesn't happen often to great players.

 

If you're comparing Arians ability to use DJ in the passing game to that completely inept LA offensive coaching staff that didn't know how to do abything right then I don't know what to say.  

 

No one ever should be compared to Barry Sanders.  I doubt we ever see a runner with his style and ability again.   He was a freak. 

 

AP consistently had better lines than Gurley did last year.   Again, they had one decent run blocker in their RT.  That's it.  

 

I'm saying this for the last time and then I'm done - the collective combination of the offensive coaching staff, QB, and offensive line was as bad as it gets and one of the worst I've seen since I've been charting football the last few years. 

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7 minutes ago, boltup15 said:

 

I remember those 8 games. I said he was overvalued going into last season. I expected regression. He's going into his 3rd NFL season. He's still only 22. He has a lot of football and learning to do. He's no AP so there's no point in arguing about AP vs Gurley. I think he's a top 5 back in the NFL and will stay as a top 5 back for a long time. 

Who would be top 5 at this point? I dont even think he belongs in a top 5 rbs for now. Just on supposed talent alone? I mean off of one year of production (maybe really only 4 games) and a storied college career? Melvin gordon has one as well, and has progressively gotten better. Is he ahead of demarco murray? Lesean? Freeman? Thats not even mentioning the big 3.

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15 minutes ago, vikingapocalypse said:

Who would be top 5 at this point? I dont even think he belongs in a top 5 rbs for now. Just on supposed talent alone? I mean off of one year of production (maybe really only 4 games) and a storied college career? Melvin gordon has one as well, and has progressively gotten better. Is he ahead of demarco murray? Lesean? Freeman? Thats not even mentioning the big 3.

 

On just his talent and age alone he's likely still top 5/6 (but note I said age as well).  

 

Zeke

Bell 

DJ

Cook potentially

Maybe MG3

 

But that's in a vacuum and NOT taking situational context into account.  That Rams situation is still a mess.

 

If Gurley was traded today to Dallas for Zeke he'd instantly become a top 3 fantasy rb.  Situation matters as much as talent in football.

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3 minutes ago, 96mnc said:

 

On just his talent and age alone he's likely still top 5/6 (but note I said age as well).  

 

Zeke

Bell 

DJ

Cook potentially

Maybe MG3

 

But that's in a vacuum and NOT taking situational context into account.  That Rams situation is still a mess.

 

If Gurley was traded today to Dallas for Zeke he'd instantly become a top 3 fantasy rb.  Situation matters as much as talent in football.

I dont know if i fully agree, but i get the age arguement. You want to think of your future as much as your present, but id put it this way:

If every RB was on a 1 year lease, theres more then a handful id take over gurley right now.

So the top 5 for the future, i get, and can be obtained with his youth and physical talent. But he needs alot of work to the mental aspect of his game. But saying hes top 5, right now at this moment, i cant agree with.

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38 minutes ago, 96mnc said:

 

If you're comparing Arians ability to use DJ in the passing game to that completely inept LA offensive coaching staff that didn't know how to do abything right then I don't know what to say.  

 

No one ever should be compared to Barry Sanders.  I doubt we ever see a runner with his style and ability again.   He was a freak. 

 

AP consistently had better lines than Gurley did last year.   Again, they had one decent run blocker in their RT.  That's it.  

 

I'm saying this for the last time and then I'm done - the collective combination of the offensive coaching staff, QB, and offensive line was as bad as it gets and one of the worst I've seen since I've been charting football the last few years. 

At this point our disagreements cannot be resolved. We shall see how well he does next year and whether the Rams experience any improvement around him on offense. I don't like excuses for why an elite RB can't overcome challenges though. The generational talents find a way to succeed regardless of the situation. I simply don't view Gurley as that type of talent and I'll leave it at that.

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Just now, devaster said:

At this point our disagreements cannot be resolved. We shall see how well he does next year and whether the Rams experience any improvement around him on offense. I don't like excuses for why an elite RB can't overcome challenges though. The generational talents find a way to succeed regardless of the situation. I simply don't view Gurley as that type of talent and I'll leave it at that.

 

rock.gif

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1 hour ago, CL3VELANDBR0WNS said:

As mentioned before, the elite backs tend to be on the best teams and it's no coincidence.

You think LeVeon Bell would still be an RB1 on the Rams? No chance. 

 

Jordan Howard played for one of the worst teams in the league and finished 2nd in the league in rushing.

 

34 minutes ago, 96mnc said:

 

I said in my initial post that he left yards on the field.  Of course he missed some holes.  

 

This highlight (lowlight?) reel is a collection of 8 or so plays over the course of an entire season.  You're seeing a rb that was so used to the hole NOT being there that his patience and vision were shot.  A rb that simply didn't trust the blocking in front of him.   On a eight play sample.

 

If he had displayed this same lack of vision and patience consistently during his rookie year or in college then I'd also call his ability into question.  But that wasn't the case.

 

So where's this same film critique based on his rookie year film?

 

The bolded part is just another excuse. Gurley averaged 3.2 yards per carry last season. In other words, 3.2 yards was the outcome on a vast majority of his runs. He averaged about 3 yards per carry in the 8 plays in the aforementioned video. Its a very representative sample. That's who he is. That's what he did all season. In fact Gurley had 9 games that he averaged BELOW 3.2 ypc; and had only two games all season he averaged over 4 ypc (his highest game was 4.1). I don't think anyone could put together a Gurley "highlight" reel from 2016 because he had very few of them. His two longest runs all season were 24 and 18 yards.

 

Trent Richardson also looked good in college and had a handful of decent games his rookie year. The Browns didn't care about the past and looked at his production in the second half of his rookie season. They saw an imposter and did to the Colts what Osweiler did to the Texans this year. This is de ja vu like no other. Richardson never got a second contract; Gurley won't either. Its obvious.

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5 minutes ago, vikingapocalypse said:

I dont know if i fully agree, but i get the age arguement. You want to think of your future as much as your present, but id put it this way:

If every RB was on a 1 year lease, theres more then a handful id take over gurley right now.

So the top 5 for the future, i get, and can be obtained with his youth and physical talent. But he needs alot of work to the mental aspect of his game. But saying hes top 5, right now at this moment, i cant agree with.

 

Generally,  I very much agree with the idea that every rb is on a one year lease.  It's why I think rbs are horrible high draft pick investments in dynasty start up leagues and why I think that drafting rbs in the first round in reality football isn't the way to go.  I also think resigning rbs at a premium after their initial rookie contracts is a poor practice by NFL teams.

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