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Todd Gurley 2017 Season Outlook


FlashGordon401
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don't forget this guy was a consensus number 1 last year.  at this point short of trading him for Bell you'd be selling low on the guy.  he is basically performing at last year's projection.  ask yourself this, would you guys be so down and thinking about trying to flip him if this was last year and started the year like this? 

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4 hours ago, Panthor said:

don't forget this guy was a consensus number 1 last year.  at this point short of trading him for Bell you'd be selling low on the guy.  he is basically performing at last year's projection.  ask yourself this, would you guys be so down and thinking about trying to flip him if this was last year and started the year like this? 

 

I agree. He’s a talented workhorse on an offense that looks completely different than they did last year. They’re no longer one dimensional. I also love how they’re utilizing him in the passing game this year. I honestly don’t think I’d sell him for anyone right now. 

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2 minutes ago, BostonCajun said:

 

I agree. He’s a talented workhorse on an offense that looks completely different than they did last year. They’re no longer one dimensional. I also love how they’re utilizing him in the passing game this year. I honestly don’t think I’d sell him for anyone right now. 

No one? Lol

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Just now, CrastersCreep said:

No one? Lol

 

Laugh all you want but he’s playing arguably better than anyone out there right now and he has the talent to continue putting up big numbers. I don’t think he’ll continue on this pace but I think he’s top 5 RB the rest of the way. There are some people you sell high and others you hold. Gurley is a definite hold for me. He had a great rookie year, proved he can be a workhorse back in the nfl, runs with authority and power, has breakaway speed, catches the ball out of the backfield and gets all the goal line carries. As @Panthor said he was a lock for top 2 or 3 pick last year based off of all these things. Then he had a down year as a sophomore, a year when a lot of guys struggle after showing up big their rookie season, and everyone was saying he’s overrated this year and how he wouldn’t finish top ten. What’s funny is how quickly people forget how he looked his entire college career and his rookie season. 

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7 minutes ago, CrastersCreep said:

No one? Lol

 

If u had zeke and dj last season  paired with a couple of w2/3would u have sold them or would u have held them? 

 

Right now I have Gurley+Hunt+hyde  and i'm thinking I can keep cycling through marginal wr's and the waiver and ride my rb's to a title

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5 minutes ago, CrastersCreep said:

He's not zeke or DJ

 

 

as of  3 games he is better in terms of fantasy points he's ahead of zeke and DJ is gone so 13 games reg fantasy season we are slighty done with  25% of the season.

 

only a couple of other guys are getting his workload. you need rb's to win

Edited by dashoe
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Just now, dashoe said:

 

 

as of  3 games he is better in terms of fantasy points he's ahead of zeke and DJ is gone so 13 games reg fantasy season we are slighty done with  25% of the season.

 

only a couple of other guys are getting his workload

What? He's played 3 games which is less then 20% of the season. He's averaging 3.8 ypc vs SF, Indy, and Washington. 3 bottom 5 defenses. His schedule gets infinitely tougher. He's off to a great start no doubt but you're absolutely off your rocker if you think this guy is as good as Zeke or DJ or Leveon. 

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7 minutes ago, CrastersCreep said:

He's not zeke or DJ

 

did you see his rookie season?  he was a monster, and turned that into being a top 1 or 2 pick in fantasy his second year.  he had a bad year and now we are in the 3rd year where he is picking up where he left off his rookie season.  no one knows if he will keep it up, but dismissing his performance like he is some flash in the pan is a big mistake.  Zeke just put up a 0fer last week, a few more bad weeks and a mediocore finish  are you going to be saying Zeke isn't Gurley next year or Zeke isn't Bell.  come on dude.  Gurley right now by my count is 1 good year, 1 bad year, this is a tie breaker year of sorts for the guy.  like i said earlier he a projected number 1 pick, if you owned him last year with this kind of a start you wouldn't be talking about OMG what a tough schedule i better trade him now.  you'd treat it like any other stud RB of the past and just ride it out.  and it would take a kings ransom to get him from your team.

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9 minutes ago, CrastersCreep said:

What? He's played 3 games which is less then 20% of the season. He's averaging 3.8 ypc vs SF, Indy, and Washington. 3 bottom 5 defenses. His schedule gets infinitely tougher. He's off to a great start no doubt but you're absolutely off your rocker if you think this guy is as good as Zeke or DJ or Leveon. 

 

there is a 3 game stretch in 2014 and last year Bell averaged 3.9 or less, plus sprinkle in some other 3.x ypc in there as well, as did DJ, same with Zeke, he had some low games too, so what's your point exactly?  it's just recency bias against Gurley, everyone is still burned from last year.  which is fine, but like i said 1 great year, 1 terrible year.  so far a great year in year 3

 

and here's one more thing, what makes Bell, "Bell" is his use in the passing game as well as the running game.  so even in the games he had low ypc, his work as a pass catcher buoyed his stats.  and what do you know Gurley is being used the same way, hmmm...

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1 minute ago, CrastersCreep said:

What? He's played 3 games which is less then 20% of the season. He's averaging 3.8 ypc vs SF, Indy, and Washington. 3 bottom 5 defenses. His schedule gets infinitely tougher. He's off to a great start no doubt but you're absolutely off your rocker if you think this guy is as good as Zeke or DJ or Leveon. 

 

technically 23% of the season is complete not less than 20% as u state. So  nice try with the he's not better than DJ-Zeke-Bell point. Guess what thats irrelevant.

Fact is he is scoring more points as of 3 games than Bell or zeke. so by purely points he is better.  Also DJ is gone so he's useless as a 2017 benchmark.  Only a handful of other backs will have the every down volume of gurley which are Gordon-Bell-Shady-zeke-tymonty-hyde  so you essentially have a very small group of competitors.

You dont select rb's on ypc, you select fantasy rb's based on volume and opportunity. Gurley gets volume and opportunity by being on the field for an est 80% of the snaps.

 

So exactly why would you trade a scarce points commodity if you dont' need to?
As I said would you have traded zeke+DJ if they were on ur team last year?

This is 2017 so u need to evaluate players in 2017 based on 2017 results not what they did last year.

Gurley is avg about 30pts a game and is on the field for roughly 80% of the snaps so ur telling me u care more about ypc than fantasy points?  :blink:

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14 minutes ago, BTA310 said:

He has a tough schedule after next week, the real test will be during that stretch.  His floor has definitely risen due to passing targets.  A question right now is if one should sell high.  His value is likely at its peak

 

 

like i said, what are you going to sell him for?  right now his value is  Bell/DJ.  are you going to get that value?  probably not.  so why not ride it out like you would if i was Bell or DJ. 

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9 minutes ago, Panthor said:

 

 

like i said, what are you going to sell him for?  right now his value is  Bell/DJ.  are you going to get that value?  probably not.  so why not ride it out like you would if i was Bell or DJ. 

I would have no problem riding him out and likely would if I had him, but I would def consider a deal for him for a RB1 plus someone like AJ Green.

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After a rookie season like Gurleys, followed by a downfall, usually the 3rd season is the charm. And indeed it is. People saying he's really not all that talented and only the volume will keep his value up need to get their eyes (or TV's) checked.

Edited by ZChronicNebula
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For anyone interested in sell-high value, I got Evans for Gurley in a multi-player deal just now (yes, our Commish allows players to be traded after playing on Thursday) in my 14 team league. Gurley helped me get off (probably) to a 3-0 start. Schedule is ugly from here and I didn't want to risk him having a bad game next week and lose the premium trade value he has now.

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28 minutes ago, dashoe said:

 

RB's are replaceable...WR are not

as of  3 games he is better in terms of fantasy points he's ahead of zeke and DJ is gone so 13 games reg fantasy season we are slighty done with  25% of the season.

 

only a couple of other guys are getting his workload. you need rb's to win

 

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5 minutes ago, Panthor said:

 

there is a 3 game stretch in 2014 and last year Bell averaged 3.9 or less, plus sprinkle in some other 3.x ypc in there as well, as did DJ, same with Zeke, he had some low games too, so what's your point exactly?  it's just recency bias against Gurley, everyone is still burned from last year.  which is fine, but like i said 1 great year, 1 terrible year.  so far a great year in year 3

 

and here's one more thing, what makes Bell, "Bell" is his use in the passing game as well as the running game.  so even in the games he had low ypc, his work as a pass catcher buoyed his stats.  and what do you know Gurley is being used the same way, hmmm...

You're deluded. I own multiple shares of Gurley and If you think his talent + situation mimics that of Bell then I don't know what to say. He's done great vs 3 terrible defenses. I've watched closely and haven't come away very impressed. He looks stiff and hesitant. His ypc reflects that. I'm not going to be rooting against the guy but the notion that you wouldn't trade him for anyone in the league is simply silly. I don't care what he did his rookie year or last year. He's on an an average/below average team with an average/below average line and QB. Again I'm not suggesting the sky is falling or saying he's "not good". The notion that he's an elite top 3 option ROS is what I don't buy.

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5 hours ago, Panthor said:

don't forget this guy was a consensus number 1 last year.  at this point short of trading him for Bell you'd be selling low on the guy.  he is basically performing at last year's projection.  ask yourself this, would you guys be so down and thinking about trying to flip him if this was last year and started the year like this? 

EXACTLY

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1 minute ago, phegotgame14 said:

 

 

yeah, well so far my team disagrees with you. I have gurley+hunt+hyde and i'm leading in points every week and  my wr are arob(sadly departed)+garcon+tate. and no teams with better wr's are outscoring me or beating me h2h. 

 

rb's are easy to replace but not ELITE every down rb's go ask the DJ owner.

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