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2017 Vent & Rant Thread


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On 12/24/2017 at 3:13 PM, jstep13 said:

 

Damn, who did you run into?

 

On 12/24/2017 at 3:17 PM, Holben said:

Not person you quoted, but one of my opponents was running Gurley and Gordon, outside of those two, his team sucks and put up single digits so at the end of the noon games, he was down on me by a few points. He ran into my Gronk, Kamara, Lewis, Bears Def, and Buttkicker

 

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11 minutes ago, Lamont Sanford said:

 

Except that starting Foles, who scored twice as much as either Cousins or Brees last week, might’ve been the difference between getting to the fantasy Super Bowl or not. This just further illustrates luck trumping skill in fantasy football. In week 15, everything else being equal, the fantasy player who used logic, common sense and started Cousins or Brees was knocked out of the playoffs by the  lucky owner who started Foles out of desperation and went on to the Super Bowl.

 

 

But no one would have started Foles

last week.

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2 hours ago, Nyblazer11235 said:

The skill portion of This game is weathering the injuries and duds enough with roster management to get to the  playoffs. Then it all comes down to luck.

 

Its like Texas Holdem. A lot of familiar faces last long in tournaments based off their skill, but there is no defense for running into a bad beat.

There is truth to this.  in the grand scheme of things FF is all luck and it really doesnt matter how much you prepare for a draft.  

 

My first 4 picks in my 2 QB league were (in order): Luck, aj green, tyrod, zeke, eifert and I'm currently in 2nd place at 10-6 only because i've lucked out in my later round picks and hit on some waiver wire pickups.  The mvp of my team has been Jared Goff, who was only going to be a placeholder for Luck.

 

90% luck, 10% awareness

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Gurley owner X will say they “knew” Gurley was going to bounce back and drafted him accordingly, therefore it was skill, not luck that Gurley delivered them a championship. While it may be true expected a bounce back season, so did others. Therefore, luck was a factor in Gurley even being available to you at the draft. He could’ve been drafted by someone else before you and that team would’ve likely won the championship while you eound up with Evans, Freeman, or some other disappointment. 

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10 minutes ago, Lamont Sanford said:

Gurley owner X will say they “knew” Gurley was going to bounce back and drafted him accordingly, therefore it was skill, not luck that Gurley delivered them a championship. While it may be true expected a bounce back season, so did others. Therefore, luck was a factor in Gurley even being available to you at the draft. He could’ve been drafted by someone else before you and that team would’ve likely won the championship while you eound up with Evans, Freeman, or some other disappointment. 

 

When I drafted him I knew that he would likely play better than he did last season, but I didn't expect a #1 overall type season from him. He made losing David Johnson a hell of a lot easier.

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21 minutes ago, crotchcrickets said:

90% luck, 10% awareness

 

Depends on how you feel about something like sports books. If you play fantasy like a numbers game it's all about probabilities just like playing the spreads.

 

Nobody can predict the crazy things that happen in sports, but you can position yourself to be on the positive side of the outcome an above average amount of times.

 

Obviously if you play in a single league this is a lot harder since you're talking very small variance.

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Got smoked by Gurley, in our league we have all these bonus points, so he personally shut me down. And I have Crabtree with a big zero.

 

Also had Jimmy  G and was too afraid to use him over Drew Brees. And I just knew he was somehow going to make it happen, but didn't go with him. doh!

 

Fun times. Congrats to those that won and on to 2018 season!

 

 

 

Edited by Dead Money
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4 minutes ago, BurgundyBooger said:

Fournette and Kamara.

 

The two RBs that regressed at the worst possible moment.

 

Started off hot, then looked like Larry Holmes flabby and sick.

 

But next week they could just as easily blow up for 25 points each. Is it because their fantasy owner’s skill level fluctuates weekly?

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56 minutes ago, Lamont Sanford said:

 

But next week they could just as easily blow up for 25 points each. Is it because their fantasy owner’s skill level fluctuates weekly?

those guys who think this game is skilled based are full of hot air

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2 hours ago, Lamont Sanford said:

 

Wrong. In my league the owner who lost Wentz in week 14 started Foles in week 15. 

 

 

Well thats juat idiotic... is there dumb luck associated with fantasy football? Of course. However, there is definitely a skill based side of it as well. As in those morons may have moved on last week after Foles historic performance but they lost this week. Any manager with any knowledge of the game finds someone else to start at qb in the biggest fantasy of the game of the year who is more proven then terrible Nick Foles.

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9 minutes ago, Lamont Sanford said:

 

Can you give an example of this skill?

 

Don't chase points. For example, don't start crappy Nick Foles in the finals due to an outlier 4 TD performance with low repeat probability over guys like Goff and Cousins.

 

Look at the "most added" stats every week. The biggest flaw in most players fantasy game is chasing blow up performances when circumstances indicate there's a high chance it's an outlier and the player will revert to the mean performance. Tarik Cohen anyone?

 

You want to be the guy selling high on these players.

Edited by LongBalls
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I think skill is more about awareness as someone else said. I think being more aware than the rest of your league gives you a 3-5% boost. That's about it. 

 

I know a few games in which awareness determined the outcome of the game. Double checking everything at 12:30pm is common sense to us...but more of the commoner type it's not. 

 

Fournette being a surprise scratch for 2 games really burned someone in my league. 

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7 hours ago, BurgundyBooger said:

Fournette and Kamara.

 

The two RBs that regressed at the worst possible moment.

 

Started off hot, then looked like Larry Holmes flabby and sick.

 

Love the Tupac reference.

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5 hours ago, shakestreet said:

those guys who think this game is skilled based are full of hot air

 

I assume you play fantasy football -

otherwise you wouldn’t be frequenting this forum.  If you don’t mind my asking, why not just play craps or blackjack instead?  Aren’t they all the same to you?

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13 minutes ago, oliminator123 said:

It is skilled based for the most part. Gotta play the waivers, do research, and study. 

 

Injuries are bad luck. But if you manage around them, you can easily win. 

I wouldn't say easily but it can be done

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