Jump to content
NBC Sports Edge Forums

LeSean McCoy 2017 Season Outlook


Recommended Posts

On 3/9/2017 at 10:21 AM, Impreza178 said:

"I never know what to make of Clay. Seems like Tyrod is erratic enough combined with an elite receiving back and running game, and 2 solid WRs. Red zone threat only."   

 

Could be, just that usage & ability aren't always the same thing. Clay is more receiver than anything, can really track, even in traffic. Great hands, versatile & durable and runs pretty well. I think we could see a lot of base sets from Dennison & if McCoy is effective, that'll force defenses to get their run-oriented personnel on the field, which plays to Clay's strength. He's not a guy you have to draft. Perhaps, given all the different positions on different teams, different QBs & offensive schemes, it hasn't exactly allowed Clay to build the level of rapport with his QB he might have otherwise. As Blonde eluded to, we might expect a lot of high percentage, run after the catch type throws from Taylor through Dennison, who Taylor worked with in Baltimore.         

 

http://www.buffalobills.com/video/videos/Watch_Tyrod_Taylor_Highlights/129a641c-11be-44de-a2b8-69ec9b603040

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0Vq6V6bzy4c

http://www.nfl.com/videos/nfl-game-highlights/0ap3000000762948/Charles-Clay-highlights

Link to post
Share on other sites
  • Replies 1k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

10 hours ago, markrc99 said:

 

Could be, just that usage & ability aren't always the same thing. Clay is more receiver than anything, can really track, even in traffic. Great hands, versatile & durable and runs pretty well. I think we could see a lot of base sets from Dennison & if McCoy is effective, that'll force defenses to get their run-oriented personnel on the field, which plays to Clay's strength. He's not a guy you have to draft. Perhaps, given all the different positions on different teams, different QBs & offensive schemes, it hasn't exactly allowed Clay to build the level of rapport with his QB he might have otherwise. As Blonde eluded to, we might expect a lot of high percentage, run after the catch type throws from Taylor through Dennison, who Taylor worked with in Baltimore.         

 

http://www.buffalobills.com/video/videos/Watch_Tyrod_Taylor_Highlights/129a641c-11be-44de-a2b8-69ec9b603040

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0Vq6V6bzy4c

http://www.nfl.com/videos/nfl-game-highlights/0ap3000000762948/Charles-Clay-highlights

 

Good post mark, I'll have to keep him on the radar as a guy to take the next step from the massive pool of TE randomness. 

Woods gone and Tyrod back certainly can't hurt...

Link to post
Share on other sites
On 3/11/2017 at 7:23 AM, markrc99 said:

 

Could be, just that usage & ability aren't always the same thing. Clay is more receiver than anything, can really track, even in traffic. Great hands, versatile & durable and runs pretty well. I think we could see a lot of base sets from Dennison & if McCoy is effective, that'll force defenses to get their run-oriented personnel on the field, which plays to Clay's strength. He's not a guy you have to draft. Perhaps, given all the different positions on different teams, different QBs & offensive schemes, it hasn't exactly allowed Clay to build the level of rapport with his QB he might have otherwise. As Blonde eluded to, we might expect a lot of high percentage, run after the catch type throws from Taylor through Dennison, who Taylor worked with in Baltimore.         

 

http://www.buffalobills.com/video/videos/Watch_Tyrod_Taylor_Highlights/129a641c-11be-44de-a2b8-69ec9b603040

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0Vq6V6bzy4c

http://www.nfl.com/videos/nfl-game-highlights/0ap3000000762948/Charles-Clay-highlights

 

Clay has two bad knees and carries the questionable/doubtful tag every week.

Link to post
Share on other sites
14 hours ago, jmausen said:

"Clay has two bad knees and carries the questionable/doubtful tag every week."

 

My understanding is that Buffalo signed him away from Miami with good money & that any concern was fully disclosed & scoped, has missed very little time. See for yourself, runs, cuts, accelerates & elevates, I don't see a guy favoring or looking limited in any way. His risk to upside..... (1,500/15) e; can't be beat!!!     

Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, markrc99 said:

 

My understanding is that Buffalo signed him away from Miami with good money & that any concern was fully disclosed & scoped, has missed very little time. See for yourself, runs, cuts, accelerates & elevates, I don't see a guy favoring or looking limited in any way. His risk to upside..... (1,500/15) e; can't be beat!!!     

 

http://www.rotoworld.com/player/nfl/6681/charles-clay

 

I streamed TEs last year and kept a close eye on Clay.  His news was always, "(knee) questionable", "(knee) not practicing", and "doubtful".  Couldn't pick him up.  Good numbers after the Bills were eliminated from the playoffs (weeks 14-16).  The people who hired him have been fired.  Bills had the most running plays in the NFL last year. Run first offense probably isn't changing this year.  The new OC was DEN's OC the last 2 seasons: "Peyton Manning's corpse - 2015" and "hope the defense doesn't allow any points - 2016".  They'll feature McCoy and Gillislee.  They added 2 fullbacks in free agency: Dimarco from Atlanta will be blocking for Tolbert on goal line carries.  Clay, McCoy, and Gillislee getting TDs isn't a priority.  They still don't know what to do about QB.  Half of the front office wanted to release Tyrod.  

 

The Steelers are still under investigation for not having Bell on the injury report when they lost to the Patriots in the playoffs.  Teams disclose what they want to disclose.  Rex Ryan was desperate to get some talent on his roster.  He knew he was on a short leash for playoff wins.

 

If you're looking for a sleeper TE with big upside, McVay is a TE coach, his OC is a QB coach, and McVay threw a crap ton to his TEs in WASH.  He's the Rams' new head coach.  They just released Lance Kendricks.  Only TE on their roster is Tyler Higbee.  He doesn't have an ADP.

Barnidge should also have a "bounce back" year (that's what "they" will call it).  He needed to block last season because CLE only had a LT and one guard on the o-line.  The Browns also rotated 6 different crap QBs because the o-line made them run for their lives, so they got injured every week.  Barnidge will play more of a Tyler Eifert role in CLE's offense this year: QB is safe without him blocking.  He's currently TE24.  No TE is getting 1,500/15, but Barnidge can finish top 3 as the check down king and biggest redzone target for a crappy CLE QB.  Good o-line, #1/#2 target on offense, cheap, no risk, high upside.

 

 

Link to post
Share on other sites
7 minutes ago, Lord_Varys said:

 

Because of Charles Clay?

 

 

 

No, because Atlanta's fullback (Dimarco) will be lead blocking for Mike Tolbert on the goal line.

They signed 2 fullbacks in free agency.  

Link to post
Share on other sites

and that changes what exactly seeing as how he was already getting vultured TDs?  what maybe 1 or 2 less tds?  alright, ill entertain that..but his bread and butter isn't goal line work anyway. its in between the 20s and breaking off td's. I don't know that I would put way to much into dimarco and Tolbert coming over.

 

Edited by Rizzle630
Link to post
Share on other sites
17 minutes ago, jmausen said:

 

No, because Atlanta's fullback (Dimarco) will be lead blocking for Mike Tolbert on the goal line.

They signed 2 fullbacks in free agency.  

 

And?.....

This isn't John Kuhn we are discussing.    Shady is healthy- likely top 5 rb. Year after year.    Injury is the major risk, but he's tough and plays through nagging stuff usually.  Too many ways to produce and will be used heavily.  

 

Please keep selling the fullback nonsense though.   You spend a lot of time fabricating an opinion off of obscure stats and secondary role players.     

 

 

Link to post
Share on other sites
15 minutes ago, Rizzle630 said:

and that changes what exactly seeing as how he was already getting vultured TDs?  what maybe 1 or 2 less tds?  alright, ill entertain that..but his bread and butter isn't goal line work anyway. its in between the 20s and breaking off td's. I don't know that I would put way to much into dimarco and Tolbert coming over.

 

 

And he has new coaches.

Head coach was DC in Carolina.

Offensive coordinator was "zombie Peyton Manning-2015", and the "please don't let the other team score - 2016" Denver OC. 

 

Not exactly the Rex Ryan/Anthony Lynn ground and pound mentality you want for feature backs who frequently get vultured on the goal line.

 

Offensive line is solid.  Between the 20s should be fine.  Play calling in the redzone is very suspect.

I had McCoy last year.  13 rushing TDs and 8 for Gillislee.  

LaGarrette Blount had 18.  See where I'm going with Dimarco/Tolbert?

 

Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, Impreza178 said:

 

And?.....

This isn't John Kuhn we are discussing.    Shady is healthy- likely top 5 rb. Year after year.    Injury is the major risk, but he's tough and plays through nagging stuff usually.  Too many ways to produce and will be used heavily.  

 

Please keep selling the fullback nonsense though.   You spend a lot of time fabricating an opinion off of obscure stats and secondary role players.     

 

 

 

I'm not saying avoid him.  I took him first round last year.

 

Between the new coaches and redzone play calling, he's a safer 2nd round pick. 

Link to post
Share on other sites
10 minutes ago, jmausen said:

 

And he has new coaches.

Head coach was DC in Carolina.

Offensive coordinator was "zombie Peyton Manning-2015", and the "please don't let the other team score - 2016" Denver OC. 

 

Not exactly the Rex Ryan/Anthony Lynn ground and pound mentality you want for feature backs who frequently get vultured on the goal line.

 

Offensive line is solid.  Between the 20s should be fine.  Play calling in the redzone is very suspect.

I had McCoy last year.  13 rushing TDs and 8 for Gillislee.  

LaGarrette Blount had 18.  See where I'm going with Dimarco/Tolbert?

 

 

 

McCoy has never fit the ground and pound philosophy though.  and what play calling in the redzone?  This is a new staff as you have pointed out with personnel they have never had before- to me its hard to put too much into their playcalling at previous locations.  The new offensive coordinator didn't have the talent at rb that McCoy is so looking at his past play calling only gets us so far.

 

If we want to use assumptions I could state that the defensive mentality with the coaches tends to point to an offense that grinds the clock with running....I just don't expect a DRASTIC change in his production.  he lost 8 rushing tds  to Gillislee. I do not see McCoy's role changing much. I do see Gillislee losing out more than anyone....itll be interesting to monitor.

 

I have McCoy in my dynasty league along with Gurley and, soon, Fournette and Mixon.  Personally waiting on that perfect window to move him.  Need to ensure my other backs don't bust.

 

You should take a look at the last Top dog rb Dennison had to work with and see how that guy produced...im not going to evaluate his play calling on teams that had no top 5 rb.

Edited by Rizzle630
Link to post
Share on other sites
16 minutes ago, Rizzle630 said:

 

 

McCoy has never fit the ground and pound philosophy though.  and what play calling in the redzone?  This is a new staff as you have pointed out with personnel they have never had before- to me its hard to put too much into their playcalling at previous locations.  The new offensive coordinator didn't have the talent at rb that McCoy is so looking at his past play calling only gets us so far.

 

If we want to use assumptions I could state that the defensive mentality with the coaches tends to point to an offense that grinds the clock with running....I just don't expect a DRASTIC change in his production.  he lost 8 rushing tds  to Gillislee. I do not see McCoy's role changing much. I do see Gillislee losing out more than anyone....itll be interesting to monitor.

 

I have McCoy in my dynasty league along with Gurley and, soon, Fournette and Mixon.  Personally waiting on that perfect window to move him.  Need to ensure my other backs don't bust.

 

You should take a look at the last Top dog rb Dennison had to work with and see how that guy produced...im not going to evaluate his play calling on teams that had no top 5 rb.

 

Rex Ryan is gone.

Is Buffalo going to pass more and rush 80 fewer times?  Less rushes, probably.  80 less, probably not.  

Fewer redzone touches and TDs?  Yes.

Is Sammy Watkins healthy this year?

Does he lose enough production to drop a tier? 

Yes, McCoy is a great RB.  I have 8 players above him on my "way too early off-season draft board" this year. 

 

 

RK TEAM ATT YDS YDS/A LONG TD YDS/G FUM FUML
1 Dallas 499 2396 4.8 60 24 149.8 9 2
2 Buffalo 492 2630 5.3 75 29 164.4 11 3
3 New England 482 1872 3.9 44 19 117.0 8 2
4 Tennessee 476 2187 4.6 75 16 136.7 10 4
5 San Francisco 458 2019 4.4 47 15 126.2 8 6
6 Houston 456 1859 4.1 45 8 116.2 8 2
7 Tampa Bay 453 1616 3.6 45 8 101.0 8 4
  Carolina 453 1814 4.0 47 16 113.4 6 4
9 Cincinnati 446 1769 4.0 74 17 110.6 5 2
10 Philadelphia 438 1813 4.1 30 16 113.3 9 4
11 Oakland 434 1922 4.4 75 17 120.1 8 4
12 Atlanta 421 1928 4.6 75 20 120.5 3 1
13 NY Jets 418 1802 4.3 35 10 112.6 6 3
14 Kansas City 412 1748 4.2 70 15 109.3 5 4
15 Denver 410 1484 3.6 64 11 92.8 5 2
Edited by jmausen
Link to post
Share on other sites
7 minutes ago, jmausen said:

 

Rex Ryan is gone.

Is Buffalo going to pass more and rush 80 fewer times?  Less rushes, probably.  80 less, probably not.  

Fewer redzone touches and TDs?  Yes.

Is Sammy Watkins healthy this year?

Does he lose enough production to drop a tier? 

Yes, McCoy is a great RB.  I have 8 players above him on my "way too early off-season draft board" this year. 

 

 

RK TEAM ATT YDS YDS/A LONG TD YDS/G FUM FUML
1 Dallas 499 2396 4.8 60 24 149.8 9 2
2 Buffalo 492 2630 5.3 75 29 164.4 11 3
3 New England 482 1872 3.9 44 19 117.0 8 2
4 Tennessee 476 2187 4.6 75 16 136.7 10 4
5 San Francisco 458 2019 4.4 47 15 126.2 8 6
6 Houston 456 1859 4.1 45 8 116.2 8 2
7 Tampa Bay 453 1616 3.6 45 8 101.0 8 4
  Carolina 453 1814 4.0 47 16 113.4 6 4
9 Cincinnati 446 1769 4.0 74 17 110.6 5 2
10 Philadelphia 438 1813 4.1 30 16 113.3 9 4
11 Oakland 434 1922 4.4 75 17 120.1 8 4
12 Atlanta 421 1928 4.6 75 20 120.5 3 1
13 NY Jets 418 1802 4.3 35 10 112.6 6 3
14 Kansas City 412 1748 4.2 70 15 109.3 5 4
15 Denver 410 1484 3.6 64 11 92.8 5 2

 

 

Ill avoid going down that deep rabbit hole of what ifs. I have addressed your initial concerns and you pulled new ones.  Rick Dennison's last top RB when he was an OC was Arian Foster and he put up career numbers.  Ill use facts not speculation.  I do not see anything that points to less carries in the redzone SIMPLY BECAUSE the head coach added one of his favorite players in his previous location(Tolbert) and they brought in a legit FB that was needed(which helps McCoy in between the 20s).  The goal line guy is going to lose because of those transactions, aka Gillislee.

 

Everyone knows Buffalo was outrageously good at rushing that's not the question. 

 

Could the run game open up more with Watkins healthy? yes

Will they run less? Its possible but they did bring in a d coach and d coaches, historically, like to run and control the clock and the OC's last top rb that he had use with was a goon and had career numbers so who knows.

 

The main issue I can definitely agree on is that it will be very difficult to sustain that ypc so with that said, sure, he may regress.  I just don't agree with the reasons you have stated.

 

 

Good talk, we shall see how this plays out.

 

 

Edited by Rizzle630
Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, Rizzle630 said:

 

 

Ill avoid going down that deep rabbit hole of what ifs. I have addressed your initial concerns and you pulled new ones.  Rick Dennison's last top RB when he was an OC was Arian Foster and he put up career numbers.  Ill use facts not speculation.  I do not see anything that points to less carries in the redzone SIMPLY BECAUSE the head coach added one of his favorite players in his previous location(Tolbert) and they brought in a legit FB that was needed(which helps McCoy in between the 20s).  The goal line guy is going to lose because of those transactions, aka Gillislee.

 

Everyone knows Buffalo was outrageously good at rushing that's not the question. 

 

Could the run game open up more with Watkins healthy? yes

Will they run less? Its possible but they did bring in a d coach and d coaches, historically, like to run and control the clock and the OC's last top rb that he had use with was a goon and had career numbers so who knows.

 

The main issue I can definitely agree on is that it will be very difficult to sustain that ypc so with that said, sure, he may regress.  I don't agree with the reasons you have stated.

 

 

Good talk, we shall see how this plays out.

 

 

 

Fullbacks are used between the 20s on 3rd and short.   Those touches go to Tolbert.

 

Kubiak was head coach in Texas from 2006-2013.  Dennison joined him in 2010.  They have been together ever since: Houston -> Baltimore -> Denver.  Kubiak was John Elways backup QB in Denver.  Kubiak knows offense.  Dennison is Kubiak's protege.  This Dennison's first year flying solo.  

 

Defensive minded head coaches typically prefer slower tempo and managing the game clock.

The new head coach also brought his full back with him from Carolina.  They stated he will not be used as a fullback in Buffalo.  Not Dennison's call.

 

"Way to early fantasy predictions".  Preseason games will help us understand their new offensive scheme and tempo.

 

 

 

 

 

Link to post
Share on other sites

Any TDs that Tolbert scores (assuming he still makes the final roster, which I personally doubt, but we'll see) will most likely come at the expense of Gillislee, rather than McCoy.  Gilly got 8 TDs last year mainly in goal line situations, and McCoy got 13 from... not-goal-line-situations.  Tolbert's not vulturing anything from the 15 yard line.  That's how Shady was getting his TDs -- like Jamaal Charles in his prime, he's cashing them in from some distance.

 

Further, anything that Shady loses because of Tolbert, he should more than make up from adding a great FB.  I consider these signings to be a wash.

 

Yes, the departure of Lynn hurts.  I think that's the most significant off-season change, more than the personnel.  They were the most run-heavy team last year, thanks to Lynn's presence and Watkins' absence.  But this team won't suddenly morph into a pass-first offense.  Shady is still a high end RB in terms of both talent and situation.

 

Instead of RB4 (after DJ, Bell, Zeke), I'd probably move Shady down a bit to RB6 after Gordon and Howard, maybe even after Murray, but he's still in that same tier.  First round talent, no doubt.  Plus Gillislee is a cheap, capable handcuff.  It was like Ingram/Hightower pre-draft last year.  I loved that situation because there's one handcuff who is dirt cheap and you know he can step right in and give you the same level of production.  Except we couldn't have known that NO was going to completely abandon the running game at the start of the year.  I don't think we'll have that problem with Buffalo this year.

 

What I'm most interested in is his usage.  How old is he in RB years?  Has he crossed a magic number of total career carries when RBs start to break down?  Did he have so many carries last year that he'll be worn down this year?  Any data on that?  Anyone?  Cough-FFCollusion-Cough....

Link to post
Share on other sites
17 minutes ago, Rizzle630 said:

 

 

Ill avoid going down that deep rabbit hole of what ifs. I have addressed your initial concerns and you pulled new ones.  Rick Dennison's last top RB when he was an OC was Arian Foster and he put up career numbers.  Ill use facts not speculation.  I do not see anything that points to less carries in the redzone SIMPLY BECAUSE the head coach added one of his favorite players in his previous location(Tolbert) and they brought in a legit FB that was needed(which helps McCoy in between the 20s).  The goal line guy is going to lose because of those transactions, aka Gillislee.

 

Everyone knows Buffalo was outrageously good at rushing that's not the question. 

 

Could the run game open up more with Watkins healthy? yes

Will they run less? Its possible but they did bring in a d coach and d coaches, historically, like to run and control the clock and the OC's last top rb that he had use with was a goon and had career numbers so who knows.

 

The main issue I can definitely agree on is that it will be very difficult to sustain that ypc so with that said, sure, he may regress.  I don't agree with the reasons you have stated.

 

 

Good talk, we shall see how this plays out.

 

 

 

Good chat.

All I'm suggesting is I'm more comfortable with his ADP between Ajayi and Gurley around 2.03.  

He's coming off a good Rex Ryan season.  RB4 is a little too expensive.

Link to post
Share on other sites

@Lord_Varys

 

good post...I'd say it's a wash too.   he's still the primary rb and receiving back.  

 

Any of the guys in the Gordon/Murray/Freeman tier have their own questions too.  

As for the age argument- he looked as spry as ever last year.   Quick quick quick.  

More of a 2018 concern

 

 

 

 

Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, Impreza178 said:

Any of the guys in the Gordon/Murray/Freeman tier have their own questions too.

 

Put Howard in that tier ;)

 

I have Freeman in a lower tier for a number of reasons, but he's right on the edge.  Discussion for another space though.

Link to post
Share on other sites
4 minutes ago, Lord_Varys said:

Any TDs that Tolbert scores (assuming he still makes the final roster, which I personally doubt, but we'll see) will most likely come at the expense of Gillislee, rather than McCoy.  Gilly got 8 TDs last year mainly in goal line situations, and McCoy got 13 from... not-goal-line-situations.  Tolbert's not vulturing anything from the 15 yard line.  That's how Shady was getting his TDs -- like Jamaal Charles in his prime, he's cashing them in from some distance.

 

Further, anything that Shady loses because of Tolbert, he should more than make up from adding a great FB.  I consider these signings to be a wash.

 

Yes, the departure of Lynn hurts.  I think that's the most significant off-season change, more than the personnel.  They were the most run-heavy team last year, thanks to Lynn's presence and Watkins' absence.  But this team won't suddenly morph into a pass-first offense.  Shady is still a high end RB in terms of both talent and situation.

 

Instead of RB4 (after DJ, Bell, Zeke), I'd probably move Shady down a bit to RB6 after Gordon and Howard, maybe even after Murray, but he's still in that same tier.  First round talent, no doubt.  Plus Gillislee is a cheap, capable handcuff.  It was like Ingram/Hightower pre-draft last year.  I loved that situation because there's one handcuff who is dirt cheap and you know he can step right in and give you the same level of production.  Except we couldn't have known that NO was going to completely abandon the running game at the start of the year.  I don't think we'll have that problem with Buffalo this year.

 

What I'm most interested in is his usage.  How old is he in RB years?  Has he crossed a magic number of total career carries when RBs start to break down?  Did he have so many carries last year that he'll be worn down this year?  Any data on that?  Anyone?  Cough-FFCollusion-Cough....

 

That's where I'm at.  New defensive coach concerns me a bit with scheme/tempo.

If you prefer a high floor, Shady is safe RB6.

If you like to gamble, then Hyde and Gurley are a fun bet this year.  We'll probably need to choose between those guys in August.

 

Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, Lord_Varys said:

 

Put Howard in that tier ;)

 

I have Freeman in a lower tier for a number of reasons, but he's right on the edge.  Discussion for another space though.

Indeed.   I don't begrudge anyone who puts McCoy in the bottom of tier 2....but let's not pretend a couple fullbacks change Shadys role.    Textbook overanalysis. He's not and never will be a GL back.   

 

Football is much more than additions and subtractions.  

Edited by Impreza178
Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, Lord_Varys said:

 

Put Howard in that tier ;)

 

I have Freeman in a lower tier for a number of reasons, but he's right on the edge.  Discussion for another space though.

 

I'm a high ceiling drafter.

I've got everyone's top 3 (first 3 picks), then Murray/Gordon/Howard (mid to late 1st round), followed by McCoy/Hyde/Gurley (late 1st - early 2nd).

Link to post
Share on other sites
17 minutes ago, Impreza178 said:

Indeed.   I don't begrudge anyone who puts McCoy in the bottom of tier 2....but let's not pretend a couple fullbacks change Shadys role.    Textbook overanalysis. He's not and never will be a GL back.   

 

Football is much more than additions and subtractions.  

 

This thread should be called: 

You have the number 8 pick: 3 RBs are gone, 3 WRs are gone, and somebody decided they really wanted Tom Brady in the first round.  

 

Who do I take?  Crap!  Um, Fournette!

 

 

Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.


×
×
  • Create New...