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LeSean McCoy 2017 Season Outlook


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14 minutes ago, jmausen said:

 

This thread should be called: 

You have the number 8 pick: 3 RBs are gone, 3 WRs are gone, and somebody decided they really wanted Tom Brady in the first round.  

 

Who do I take?  Crap!  Um, Fournette!

 

 

Haha yeah-   It's really down to preference and what kind of risk you see fit for your roster.   

Freeman-  new coaches,  more Coleman? 

Howard-  very unproven.   This time last year it was all about Langford.  New qb, possibly a down scoring year. 

Murray-   Henry.   'Nuff said

Gordon-  incredible short TD rate,   a fleet of WRs and 2 receiving tes.  

 

With the current state of the rosters and coaching turnover in SF and LA, I can't see putting Hyde and Gurley in this tier at all.  

 

Like I said-   Put McCoy where u wish in that second group but he has as much upside and no more risk than his counterparts.    

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2 hours ago, Impreza178 said:

 

And?.....

This isn't John Kuhn we are discussing.    Shady is healthy- likely top 5 rb. Year after year.    Injury is the major risk, but he's tough and plays through nagging stuff usually.  Too many ways to produce and will be used heavily.  

 

Please keep selling the fullback nonsense though.   You spend a lot of time fabricating an opinion off of obscure stats and secondary role players.     

 

 

 

The world needs ditch diggers too Prez.

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  • 1 month later...

Gillislee looking like he might move on. Bump up for shady? Or does williams just fill the role? 

I think williams would get the first crack at the role, but i do believe they would bring someone in via the draft.

Others might disagree but i think mccoys value stays the same for me, right around the 4th or 5th rb off the board. Risk is the same, handcuff situation slightly murkier.

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11 minutes ago, vikingapocalypse said:

Risk is the same,

 

I think the risk just got a lot higher, which moves him down my board.  Will be interesting if they draft another RB.

 

He scored 13 TDs last year despite the vulturing.  Gilly stealing work was never a concern for me.

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5 minutes ago, Lord_Varys said:

 

I think the risk just got a lot higher, which moves him down my board.  Will be interesting if they draft another RB.

 

He scored 13 TDs last year despite the vulturing.  Gilly stealing work was never a concern for me.

Lesean has always had the same injury risk. His handcuff situation just got a little more risky, sure. But in most leagues its hard enough to keep a handcuff on your roster, let alone be the one to draft him. I dont take his handcuff situation that greatly into my view of his value, and im sure there will be someone else to fill the role.

 

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10 minutes ago, vikingapocalypse said:

But in most leagues its hard enough to keep a handcuff on your roster, let alone be the one to draft him.

 

I disagree.  If you invest in a risky position, you should know what the insurance policy is and where to draft him.  Then you should draft him, too.  If you have a short bench, then you have to make a tough call, but it needs to be a pretty short bench for me to throw that insurance policy out the door.

 

Quote

I dont take his handcuff situation that greatly into my view of his value, and im sure there will be someone else to fill the role

 

Gillislee is a really good player.  Part of McCoy's appeal, to me, was that I could take Gilly in the 13th and still get 85-90% of the production should he ever miss time.  Who's next man up, Williams?  1) We don't even know who fills that role, 2) They won't do it as well as Gilly.  It's like DWilliams, Henry, Hightower last year.  You've seen these guys produce and know they'll get the volume should they step in.  Gilly was in the same category.

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45 minutes ago, vikingapocalypse said:

Lesean has always had the same injury risk. His handcuff situation just got a little more risky, sure. But in most leagues its hard enough to keep a handcuff on your roster, let alone be the one to draft him. I dont take his handcuff situation that greatly into my view of his value, and im sure there will be someone else to fill the role.

 

 

My thoughts exactly.   Williams was a good back in college,  he just wasn't ready or needed in his rookie year.   Now it's time to show you are ready to take the complimentary role and run with it.   Gillislee leaving is just one less false handcuff to worry about and Williams will be cheaper as an unproven quantity.   

 

Nothing changes with McCoy.   He's one of few players that can hurt you all over the field.  Regardless of score or matchup.  His burst was clearly still elite,  regularly busting big plays.  Some need to see it again, apparently.   They will miss out.  

 

In a keeper,  I can see taking Gordon first.  In a redraft, it's easily Shady.   The better question is whether to take him over AB at 1.04 in standard.  

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7 hours ago, Lord_Varys said:

 

I disagree.  If you invest in a risky position, you should know what the insurance policy is and where to draft him.  Then you should draft him, too.  If you have a short bench, then you have to make a tough call, but it needs to be a pretty short bench for me to throw that insurance policy out the door.

 

Might not be as risky as you make it out to seem. Out of his 8 year career, lesean has played 15 or 16 games 6 times, 12 the other 2. And those other two years (2012/2015) were three years apart. He gets bagged on for his one injury plagued season in buffalo. I could argue his risk is just as high or low as any top RB. D.J and Bell no longer have reliable backups, and i dont think anyone is bumping them down on that merit. 

Im not to worried about filling my bench with a handcuff all year to play 1 game. Even as a henry/murray owner, it was damn hard to keep henry sometimes, though i did. As a lesean owner last year(12 team) i was able to pick up and drop gillislee a few times when needing bye week replacementa.

Edited by vikingapocalypse
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1 minute ago, joshua18 said:

When is the last time Shady had 2 excellent seasons in a row? 

2013 ( 1607 RUSH/ 9TD, 538 REC/ 2TD)

2014 ( 1319 RUSH/ 5TD, 155 REC/ 0TD)

 

2016 ( 1267 RUSH/ 13TD, 356 REC/ 1TD)

A little low in the TD area for the 2014 season, but still an excellent season. I included 2016 mainly to show that 3 out of the last 4 years, hes been excellent, only only due to one season with an injury.

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Just now, vikingapocalypse said:

2013 ( 1607 RUSH/ 9TD, 538 REC/ 2TD)

2014 ( 1319 RUSH/ 5TD, 155 REC/ 0TD)

 

2016 ( 1267 RUSH/ 13TD, 356 REC/ 1TD)

A little low in the TD area for the 2014 season, but still an excellent season. I included 2016 mainly to show that 3 out of the last 4 years, hes been excellent, only only due to one season with an injury.

 

2014 was NOT an excellent season...finished well below ADP that year and was barely an RB1 in PPR. If he does that in 2017, a lot of owners will be disappointed. 

 

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4 minutes ago, joshua18 said:

 

2014 was NOT an excellent season...finished well below ADP that year and was barely an RB1 in PPR. If he does that in 2017, a lot of owners will be disappointed. 

 

I agree it was below par that year, but i dont agree it wasnt an excellent season. 1400+ yards is nothing to sneeze at. He finished #12 in ppr and standard in 2014, arguably an rb1 whatever way you want to slice it.

The point is, hes consistently been producing for 3 of the past 4 years. Not that much of a risk, over someone like gordon who hasnt even played a full season or seen 1000 yards, howard with 1 year of production, murray with almost identical issues in the eyes of the community, all guys youd be considering beside lesean.

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Just now, vikingapocalypse said:

I agree it was below par that year, but i dont agree it wasnt an excellent season. 1400+ yards is nothing to sneeze at. He finished #12 in ppr and standard in 2014, arguably an rb1 whatever way you want to slice it.

The point is, hes consistently been producing for 3 of the past 4 years. Not that much of a risk, over someone like gordon who hasnt even played a full season or seen 1000 yards, howard with 1 year of production, murray with almost identical issues in the eyes of the community, all guys youd be considering beside lesean.

 

Murray has been a top-6 RB 3 of the past 4 years, unlike Shady.  No one who drafted Shady in 2014 (ADP = #2 RB that year) thought he was excellent. No one. 

 

Also not wise to bet against players with more than 1300 rushing yards as rookies. 

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Just now, joshua18 said:

 

Murray has been a top-6 RB 3 of the past 4 years, unlike Shady.  No one who drafted Shady in 2014 (ADP = #2 RB that year) thought he was excellent. No one. 

 

Also not wise to bet against players with more than 1300 rushing yards as rookies. 

Its a comparison of players in that same tier, im not throwing shade at anyone else, were talking about a few spots. I just prefer mccoy over most backs around there. Id easily grab howard or murray if lesean isnt available. No one is talking about lesean as rb #2 either. Hes proven that he can consistently produce when healthy, where you think his ceiling is, is probably relative to your value of him in that tier. Lets just say i have high hopes.

Demarco may have finished top 6 in those 3 years, but lesean also placed better then him in 2 of those 3, including most recently and in 2013, where demarco only played 14 to 16 for lesean, but it wouldve taken a miracle to catch the almost 75 pt difference. 2014 also seems to be a one time career year for demarco, especially in his current situation. Lesean has seen top 3 four times in his career, and is in a great situation.

1300 yards is great for a rookie, especially in his current situation, but theres still alot of questions about the skill players around him. I also think a healthy mccoy is overall a more talented and proven player. 

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8 hours ago, joshua18 said:

When is the last time Shady had 2 excellent seasons in a row? 

 

When is the last time any RB had 2 excellent seasons in a row?

 

Shady vs Murray is an interesting convo.  As josh stated Murray has been top six, 3 of the last 4 years.

Although McCoy has finished with more fantasy points than Murray 3 of the last 4 years too, that includes on a per-game basis as well.

Manipulating stats for narratives is fun, but raw data for those who prefer it:

Mc_Murray.png

 

In retrospect I think the edge goes to Murray, because he had 1 lost season, which was warned after the 390 curse, and many, myself included, think was more of an offensive scheme fitment issue than a skill/talent issue.  Murray seems to have larger, scarier past injuries than McCoy, but has been mostly healthy since those 2 first years.  McCoy is younger but only by 5 months, although he's older in the NFL, and workload wise.  Murray does have the threat of Henry, but McCoy's last 2 years have essentially been with shambles of an offense, with a developing, and sometimes missing Tyrod Taylor, and a rotating door at WR.  Murray has been on reasonably successful offense 3 of his non-lost 4 years.
In 2016, they were separated by 20 rushing yards, 21 receiving yards, 2 catches, 2 TDs; also only 6 points apart in the fantasy season.  We're splitting hairs here.
To be fair, McCoy played 1 less game, did it on 59 less carries, and 9 less targets but... whatever.

 

They belong in the same tier.  Who you take first, is entirely up to you, and I won't argue either way for or against.

I believe I have them in the 4-5-6 tier with Freeman, but the loss of Shannahan hasn't been factored yet.

Edited by phizzics
Unnecessary inflammatory comment removed
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6 hours ago, FFCollusion said:

 

When is the last time any RB had 2 excellent seasons in a row?

 

Shady vs Murray is an interesting convo.  As josh stated Murray has been top six, 3 of the last 4 years.

Although McCoy has finished with more fantasy points than Murray 3 of the last 4 years too, that includes on a per-game basis as well.

Manipulating stats for narratives is fun, but raw data for those who prefer it:

Mc_Murray.png

 

In retrospect I think the edge goes to Murray, because he had 1 lost season, which was warned after the 390 curse, and many, myself included, think was more of an offensive scheme fitment issue than a skill/talent issue.  Murray seems to have larger, scarier past injuries than McCoy, but has been mostly healthy since those 2 first years.  McCoy is younger but only by 5 months, although he's older in the NFL, and workload wise.  Murray does have the threat of Henry, but McCoy's last 2 years have essentially been with shambles of an offense, with a developing, and sometimes missing Tyrod Taylor, and a rotating door at WR.  Murray has been on reasonably successful offense 3 of his non-lost 4 years.
In 2016, they were separated by 20 rushing yards, 21 receiving yards, 2 catches, 2 TDs; also only 6 points apart in the fantasy season.  We're splitting hairs here.
To be fair, McCoy played 1 less game, did it on 59 less carries, and 9 less targets but... whatever.

 

They belong in the same tier.  Who you take first, is entirely up to you, and I won't argue either way for or against.

I believe I have them in the 4-5-6 tier with Freeman, but the loss of Shannahan hasn't been factored yet.

 

Excellent = being at least a mid-tier RB1 for 2 years in a row. 

 

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Examples of RBs with 2 excellent seasons in a row in the past 5 years:

 

Freeman 15-16

D. Murray 13-14

Forte 13-14

Lynch 13-14

JC 12-13

 

All had a floor of being a mid-tier RB1, and all outperformed/matched ADP the year after the first excellent season. It's a short list.

 

Shady will have to be a top-5 RB to provide value on his ADP in 2017. With Gillislee gone, his TD upside should increase in theory -- unless the FBs vulture them. 

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8 minutes ago, joshua18 said:

 

Excellent = being at least a mid-tier RB1 for 2 years in a row.  Is that so hard to understand, @FFCollusion? Stick to the numbers and away from the personal attacks. 

 

 

Lesean McCoy had more fantasy points than Demarco Murray 3 out of the last 4 seasons. 

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9 hours ago, vikingapocalypse said:

I could argue his risk is just as high or low as any top RB

 

I'd agree with that.  McCoy isn't particularly injury prone.  But the RB position is.  All of the top RBs for 2017 except Zeke (Bell, DJ, Gordon, McCoy, Murray) were injured at some point last year.

 

A dependable RB1 is the most important position in fantasy, in my opinion.  I'm of the opinion that you should always pay the extra price (in terms of a later round draft pick and roster spot) to make sure you lock that position down.  

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30 minutes ago, Lord_Varys said:

 

I'd agree with that.  McCoy isn't particularly injury prone.  But the RB position is.  All of the top RBs for 2017 except Zeke (Bell, DJ, Gordon, McCoy, Murray) were injured at some point last year.

 

A dependable RB1 is the most important position in fantasy, in my opinion.  I'm of the opinion that you should always pay the extra price (in terms of a later round draft pick and roster spot) to make sure you lock that position down.  

 

Agree to disagree there, particularly in PPR where WR1s usually outscore RB1s (last year being an exception). You can usually find RB1 production for the playoffs if you play the WW right midseason (Powell last year, DJ and Deangelo Williams 2015, J. Hill 2014, Z. Stacy 2013). Elite WR1 playoff production is harder (but still possible - Meredith 2016, Baldwin 2015, OBJ 2014, K. Allen 2013) to find off the WW late in the year. 

 

Guess it depends on which position you're better at finding off the scrap heap. 

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7 hours ago, PackersFan1979 said:

Shady was great value last year, you were getting him in the third round in most drafts. At his current ADP he needs to produce like he did last year to justify the current price tag. 

 

 

Barring injury-  which he's avoided for the most part-  that's exactly what you can expect.   Last season he was vultured regularly near the GL,  played through nagging hammy and a broken hand-  still finished top 5.   He doesn't have any threat for comp,  a big role in running and passing game, and dynamic/explosive ability.    

 

LeSean not having a big year is the exception.  

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7 hours ago, joshua18 said:

Examples of RBs with 2 excellent seasons in a row in the past 5 years:

 

Freeman 15-16

D. Murray 13-14

Forte 13-14

Lynch 13-14

JC 12-13

 

All had a floor of being a mid-tier RB1, and all outperformed/matched ADP the year after the first excellent season. It's a short list.

 

I agree the list is short, my question is what bearing does it have on the 2017 fantasy draft?

 

Bell, DJ, Zeke aren't on this list.  No one in their right mind is taking Forte, Lynch, or JC in the first round, nor ranking them top 12.

 

So how is the question not virtually useless in regards to ranking first round RBs this year, if the results of the question don't correlate?

 

I'd also challenge people to show why 2 'excellent' fantasy seasons that happen back to back, are more meaningful than 2 'excellent' fantasy seasons that don't within the same 5 year period.

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7 minutes ago, FFCollusion said:

 

I'd also challenge people to show why 2 'excellent' fantasy seasons that happen back to back, are more meaningful than 2 'excellent' fantasy seasons that don't within the same 5 year period.

 

Because it indicates that a player can be relied upon to remain elite the season after being an elite RB. That's what you want when you're drafting a RB coming off a stud season. You don't want to draft Bell's 2015 or McCoy's 2014 -- you want to draft JC's 2013 or Freeman's 2016. All 4 were coming off stud seasons. 

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1 minute ago, joshua18 said:

 

Because it indicates that a player can be relied upon to remain elite the season after being an elite RB. That's what you want when you're drafting a RB coming off a stud season. You don't want to draft Bell's 2015 or McCoy's 2014 -- you want to draft JC's 2013 or Freeman's 2016. All 4 were coming off stud seasons. 

 

So just to clarify... if David Johnson has a poor 2017... and then an 'excellent' 2018... you won't draft him in the first round of 2019, because he can't be trusted to have back to back fantasy seasons?  That's your current standpoint?

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