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LeSean McCoy 2017 Season Outlook


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8 minutes ago, dashoe said:

:lol:  Jeeezus my post is filled with so many mental errors! i'm posting and looking at training camp clips of various players. I should proofread before i send!

 

 

I'm literally flipping a coin between taking shady or gordon in the 1st rd. obviously shady is a more talented RB and will get a huge share of the offense but I like the CHARGERS potential of getting in redzone for gordon and defenses not focusing on stopping the run because Rivers will punish them whereas tyrod may not do so as effectively.

 

Tyrod isn't a guy defenses will take lightly. Between his ability to run,  and fire lasers downfield he's a potential problem.   Regardless, Defenses have been keying on the Buf run game for years now and it hasn't stopped them from being amongst the best.  Now his biggest vulture is out of town and they might have a semblance of balance with a new coordinator.  Shady could break into top 2 or 3 rbs if healthy.  Not a stretch.    I think Gordon will be top 5 or 6 as well-  but he was so tremendous near the GL and they were so banged up at the skill positions-feels like a TD regression is coming.  

 

But no magical stat will tell u the answer-  just gotta make a gut call.  

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23 hours ago, Br0kenB said:

I don't know how you could want Gordon ahead of McCoy, especially with other healthy weapons in Buffalo this year and the departure of Gillislee.

 

Gordon has: An improved Oline. Better offense. No competition at the goal line. The coach that just led McCoy to one of his best seasons. More receiving yards than McCoy last season in two fewer games. Younger.  Future hall of fame QB. Presumably only room for improvement in the YPC department. 

 

I'm not arguing that Gordon should forsure go ahead of McCoy, but I could see why somebody would. 

 

 

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1 hour ago, FinsUp24 said:

Gordon has: An improved Oline. Better offense. No competition at the goal line. The coach that just led McCoy to one of his best seasons. More receiving yards than McCoy last season in two fewer games. Younger.  Future hall of fame QB. Presumably only room for improvement in the YPC department. 

 

I'm not arguing that Gordon should forsure go ahead of McCoy, but I could see why somebody would. 

 

One guy's never eclipsed 4 YPC or 1,000 yards rushing in a single season.

 

The other's never finished BELOW 4 YPC.  In 8 seasons.

 

I'll take the devil I know over the devil I don't.  1st round is for sure bets.  It sure looks like Gordon has a great situation.  It also looks like he's as TD dependent as it gets in the first 2 rounds.

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18 minutes ago, Lord_Varys said:

 

One guy's never eclipsed 4 YPC or 1,000 yards rushing in a single season.

 

The other's never finished BELOW 4 YPC.  In 8 seasons.

 

I'll take the devil I know over the devil I don't.  1st round is for sure bets.  It sure looks like Gordon has a great situation.  It also looks like he's as TD dependent as it gets in the first 2 rounds.

 

As TD dependent as it gets? Could you please explain this to me? If you mean most likely for TD regression, that would be one thing.

 

Even if we include the game he got injured where he had 3 rush attempts for 5 yards, he was on pace for 1,700 total yards... Thats not TD dependent.

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20 minutes ago, Lord_Varys said:

 

One guy's never eclipsed 4 YPC or 1,000 yards rushing in a single season.

 

The other's never finished BELOW 4 YPC.  In 8 seasons.

 

I'll take the devil I know over the devil I don't.  1st round is for sure bets.  It sure looks like Gordon has a great situation.  It also looks like he's as TD dependent as it gets in the first 2 rounds.

 

 

Oh please, you're going to use the 'never eclipsed 1,000 yards rushing' when he was 3 yards short?  Talk about splitting a hair.  Everything about San Diego has improved in the offseason, whereas it hasn't in Buffalo.  The RB guru and offensive coordinator that helped build McCoy and Gillislee's tenure is now with Melvin Gordon in Los Angeles.  Also, who do you trust more?  Rivers, who has a long history with producing RB1's, to Tyrod Taylor.  

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1 minute ago, kdko said:

Oh please, you're going to use the 'never eclipsed 1,000 yards rushing' when he was 3 yards short?  Talk about splitting a hair.  Everything about San Diego has improved in the offseason, whereas it hasn't in Buffalo.  The RB guru and offensive coordinator that helped build McCoy and Gillislee's tenure is now with Melvin Gordon in Los Angeles.  Also, who do you trust more?  Rivers, who has a long history with producing RB1's, to Tyrod Taylor.  

 

1st round RB1s ideally would have far eclipsed 1,000 yards, multiple times.  1,000 yards is a traditional marker of a really good RB season, I didn't just pull it out of thin air.

 

Lynn did not make McCoy and Gillislee the outstanding talents that they are.  He called a lot of well designed running plays, and seemed to be a good RB coach, which is one of many reasons I'd be ecstatic to have Gordon on my team in the 1st round.  Just not before McCoy.

 

Also, I trust Taylor to "produce" RB1s moreso than Rivers (produce is the wrong word, by the way), because Taylor's done it.  With McCoy.  Rivers hasn't done it since Ladanian Tomlinson.  Tyrod Taylor is a fine NFL QB.

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22 minutes ago, FinsUp24 said:

 

As TD dependent as it gets? Could you please explain this to me? If you mean most likely for TD regression, that would be one thing.

 

Even if we include the game he got injured where he had 3 rush attempts for 5 yards, he was on pace for 1,700 total yards... Thats not TD dependent.

 

I'm saying that Melvin Gordon is as TD dependent as it gets in the first two rounds.  Meaning that there's not much yardage there, compared to other RBs in the same territory, to bolster your week if you don't get a TD.

 

It's not a bad thing to score TDs.  But he went from 0 one year, to 1 TD per game the next year ...  There's risk.

 

Again I'm not saying Gordon is a bad pick.  But over McCoy?  No, I just don't get it, unless you're convinced that any RB over the age of 28 is DND in the first round (this is a fair position).

 

Edit: Gordon did have a ton of receiving yards, as I look back over his numbers.  He's not entirely TD dependent.  

Edited by Lord_Varys
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19 minutes ago, Lord_Varys said:

 

I'm saying that Melvin Gordon is as TD dependent as it gets in the first two rounds.  Meaning that there's not much yardage there, compared to other RBs in the same territory, to bolster your week if you don't get a TD.

 

It's not a bad thing to score TDs.  But he went from 0 one year, to 1 TD per game the next year ...  There's risk.

 

Again I'm not saying Gordon is a bad pick.  But over McCoy?  No, I just don't get it, unless you're convinced that any RB over the age of 28 is DND in the first round (this is a fair position).

 

Edit: Gordon did have a ton of receiving yards, as I look back over his numbers.  He's not entirely TD dependent.  

He had a ton of rushing yards, too (for missing 3 games). Not sure where this TD dependant talk is coming from as he was pretty high on the yards from scrimmage rankings before his injury.

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1 hour ago, Lord_Varys said:

 

I'm saying that Melvin Gordon is as TD dependent as it gets in the first two rounds.  Meaning that there's not much yardage there, compared to other RBs in the same territory, to bolster your week if you don't get a TD.

 

It's not a bad thing to score TDs.  But he went from 0 one year, to 1 TD per game the next year ...  There's risk.

 

Again I'm not saying Gordon is a bad pick.  But over McCoy?  No, I just don't get it, unless you're convinced that any RB over the age of 28 is DND in the first round (this is a fair position).

 

Edit: Gordon did have a ton of receiving yards, as I look back over his numbers.  He's not entirely TD dependent.  

 

I see your edit, but I'm not sure if you're changing your stance. 

 

If we take TDs entirely out of the equation, I think Gordon still has a great chance to finish as a top 5 back this year barring injury. I'm not buying him for the TDs. I'm buying him because he demonstrated impressive chops as a receiver, and I think his YPC will only go up with an improved line. The TDs are a lovely bonus though. 

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On 7/30/2017 at 1:42 PM, Br0kenB said:

I don't know how you could want Gordon ahead of McCoy, especially with other healthy weapons in Buffalo this year and the departure of Gillislee.

 

I agree. McCoy has a career long track record of RB1 production with multiple top 5 caliber seasons under his belt. When he was healthy last year he it a genuine Big 4 at RB. I am glad that is being forgotten and he is falling to the end of the first round in many leagues. 

 

With respect to McCoy versus Gordon, Gordon has a legitimate shot at outproducing McCoy but McCoy has a higher ceiling and a higher floor along with a track record of success. Gordon's ceiling was TD dependent last year; McCoy was a yardage machine again last year which insulates him during the weeks he does not score a TD. 

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3 hours ago, Ace_King said:

 

I agree. McCoy has a career long track record of RB1 production with multiple top 5 caliber seasons under his belt. When he was healthy last year he it a genuine Big 4 at RB. I am glad that is being forgotten and he is falling to the end of the first round in many leagues. 

 

With respect to McCoy versus Gordon, Gordon has a legitimate shot at outproducing McCoy but McCoy has a higher ceiling and a higher floor along with a track record of success. Gordon's ceiling was TD dependent last year; McCoy was a yardage machine again last year which insulates him during the weeks he does not score a TD. 

 

I think it's a toss up between these two guys, but just for the record Gordon and McCoy had about he same total yards per game last year with Gordon having a slight edge. 

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7 hours ago, Ace_King said:

 

I agree. McCoy has a career long track record of RB1 production with multiple top 5 caliber seasons under his belt. When he was healthy last year he it a genuine Big 4 at RB. I am glad that is being forgotten and he is falling to the end of the first round in many leagues. 

 

With respect to McCoy versus Gordon, Gordon has a legitimate shot at outproducing McCoy but McCoy has a higher ceiling and a higher floor along with a track record of success. Gordon's ceiling was TD dependent last year; McCoy was a yardage machine again last year which insulates him during the weeks he does not score a TD. 

Tell me how a guy on pace for 1,700 yards last season was TD dependant...

 

1,000 yards and 400 thru the air in 13 weeks. Versus a guy who had 1300 and 400 thru 15 weeks... give Gordon an extra few snaps and he won't have the same yardage total? Versus a guy that just hit 10+ TDs for the second time in his 8 year career? But MG3 is TD dependant in a better offense with more volume... tell me where this damm storyline came from because its not true at all.

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12 hours ago, Ace_King said:

 

I agree. McCoy has a career long track record of RB1 production with multiple top 5 caliber seasons under his belt. When he was healthy last year he it a genuine Big 4 at RB. I am glad that is being forgotten and he is falling to the end of the first round in many leagues. 

 

With respect to McCoy versus Gordon, Gordon has a legitimate shot at outproducing McCoy but McCoy has a higher ceiling and a higher floor along with a track record of success. Gordon's ceiling was TD dependent last year; McCoy was a yardage machine again last year which insulates him during the weeks he does not score a TD. 

Where do people come up with this stuff?

 

Gordon YPG last year was 108.9 vs McCoy's YPG of 108.2

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2 hours ago, yanksman said:

Where do people come up with this stuff?

 

Gordon YPG last year was 108.9 vs McCoy's YPG of 108.2

 

The headline McCoy numbers include games where he was hurt. I was talking about when he was healthy. Excluding the games where he was hurt (he rushed for 54 yards total in those games), McCoy averaged 101.1 rushing yards per game and 28.2 receiving yards per game. That's nearly 130 total YPG--Gordon was at 117 YPG during his healthy weeks. (For context, DJ was at 132, Elliot at 133, and Bell at 157). He produced on the level of the top RBs when he was healthy. Of course, a legitimate knock on McCoy is he gets hurt a bit each year these days (although Gordon has never played more than 14 games either).

 

We are talking about two first round talents here so we are splitting hairs. Of course Gordon is a fine player. My contention is: 1) McCoy, when healthy, produces at a noticeably higher level 2) McCoy has a career long track record of great production (Gordon has 12 games worth of it). McCoy is the safer pick based on his track record and he has a higher ceiling--as well as a higher floor (McCoy is no worse than a low end RB 1 level player even in down years). Probably the only thing Gordon has over McCoy is age. McCoy averaged 5.4 yards per carry; Gordon 3.9. McCoy's career YPC is 4.7; Gordon's is 3.7. McCoy has been the better player and showed no signs of slowing down last year. McCoy has the ability to finish as the RB1. Are we prepared to make the same statement about Gordon at this point?

 

I have no problem with someone talking Gordon among the top 5 RB. I just have McCoy as a clear #4 on my list. His injury history is what separates him from the top 3 for me. I tier RB's this way: DJ/Bell/Elliot in tier 1, McCoy in a tier by himself, and then Gordon/Ajayi/Freeman/Howard in the next tier (I would take Freeman over Gordon but Gordon over Ajayi and Howard). McCoy has been as good as he was in 2016 during several seasons (i.e., 2011 and 2013). A key question about Gordon is whether last year was a career year/his ceiling. Only time will tell. 

 

 

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Being lazy here, so sorry if already discussed, but how much are we dinging McCoy over the OC change? Bills schemed the run game so well last year. McCoy is a stud but I think he'll be a little less effective this year. I'll still prob put him at rb4, but I think he falls off a bit of last years pace, making a McCoy vs Gordon and maybe even a Murray or Freeman a legit debate. 

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2 hours ago, Ace_King said:

 

The headline McCoy numbers include games where he was hurt. I was talking about when he was healthy. Excluding the games where he was hurt (he rushed for 54 yards total in those games), McCoy averaged 101.1 rushing yards per game and 28.2 receiving yards per game. That's nearly 130 total YPG--Gordon was at 117 YPG during his healthy weeks. (For context, DJ was at 132, Elliot at 133, and Bell at 157). He produced on the level of the top RBs when he was healthy. Of course, a legitimate knock on McCoy is he gets hurt a bit each year these days (although Gordon has never played more than 14 games either).

 

We are talking about two first round talents here so we are splitting hairs. Of course Gordon is a fine player. My contention is: 1) McCoy, when healthy, produces at a noticeably higher level 2) McCoy has a career long track record of great production (Gordon has 12 games worth of it). McCoy is the safer pick based on his track record and he has a higher ceiling--as well as a higher floor (McCoy is no worse than a low end RB 1 level player even in down years). Probably the only thing Gordon has over McCoy is age. McCoy averaged 5.4 yards per carry; Gordon 3.9. McCoy's career YPC is 4.7; Gordon's is 3.7. McCoy has been the better player and showed no signs of slowing down last year. McCoy has the ability to finish as the RB1. Are we prepared to make the same statement about Gordon at this point?

 

I have no problem with someone talking Gordon among the top 5 RB. I just have McCoy as a clear #4 on my list. His injury history is what separates him from the top 3 for me. I tier RB's this way: DJ/Bell/Elliot in tier 1, McCoy in a tier by himself, and then Gordon/Ajayi/Freeman/Howard in the next tier (I would take Freeman over Gordon but Gordon over Ajayi and Howard). McCoy has been as good as he was in 2016 during several seasons (i.e., 2011 and 2013). A key question about Gordon is whether last year was a career year/his ceiling. Only time will tell. 

 

 

I also have McCoy over Gordon and I am not sure what games McCoy got hurt in to remove from your totals so I wont argue your point. Either way, I dont think its fair to say Gordon is a TD dependent player. Bottom line is McCoy is and has always been a stud when healthy and thats why I would take him over Gordon. But thats it.

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I'm also dealing with the #5 pick in a 12 team league 0.5 ppr. I was fully on the Julio train and in a vacuum I would prefer Julio over McCoy, but the RB prospects on the way back around worry me given the choice between Miller, Fournette, Gurley and Crowell in the 2nd/3rd round. I'd much rather get a stud like McCoy that performs like the top 3 RBs when healthy and try to mix him with some other run of the mill RB2 later in the draft/free agency. 

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8 minutes ago, Catch23 said:

I'm also dealing with the #5 pick in a 12 team league 0.5 ppr. I was fully on the Julio train and in a vacuum I would prefer Julio over McCoy, but the RB prospects on the way back around worry me given the choice between Miller, Fournette, Gurley and Crowell in the 2nd/3rd round. I'd much rather get a stud like McCoy that performs like the top 3 RBs when healthy and try to mix him with some other run of the mill RB2 later in the draft/free agency. 

Agreed. Taking a stud WR in the middle of the first will force you to take what's left of the best available RBs instead of diving into those tasty 2nd and 3rd round WR if you go McCoy. I just mocked and ended up with McCoy/Dez/Pryor/Hyde. Love it.

Edited by ponchsox
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Td's can be fluky. I expect McCoy to score 8-12 times, but he does have 3 seasons with 5 or less. Also, if Tyrod gets hurt, it would hurt scoring chances. Best thing to bank on is yards and opportunity (there are cases like this where I'll expect 10+ td's, just saying yardage is more consistent). Lesean went ballistic last year with his 5.4 YPC. The Bills had an amazing run game scheme. New OC this year, not sure how it affects things. A healthy McCoy is getting 240+ carries, so he should tack on his sixth 1,000+ Yard season this year. Plus he'll be active in the pass game. He'll be a top 10 rb for sure. Whether he's more rb7-8 vs rb4 is dependent on his td's, but you can say that about 4-5 backs. The yards and catches will be there. I see no problem with taking him at rb4 overall, and even rb3 for early drafters wanting to avoid Zeke's risk

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