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LeSean McCoy 2017 Season Outlook


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1 hour ago, ponchsox said:

I've learned in fantasy over the last couple of years to take a player in the 1st round with the least amount of risk and guraranteed production. I see 4 WR that are much safer after the top 2 RB and before the next tier of RB (McCoy, Freeman, Gordon.) I keep hearing this "If I don't take McCoy in the first I don't like my team" narrative that is pure self-deception. How many people that took Lamar Miller before the season last year in the first round thought their team looked good on paper? When McCoy busts and your WR aren't as strong, you're already behind the 8-ball in RB and WR. Fantasy is all about having a weekly point advantage over the other team. I would much rather have a RB taken in rounds 4-7 bust than a RB in the top 2 rounds. 

 

I still think McCoy can be a good fantasy player and I would take him at the end of round one if I could pair him with another RB1 or a WR1. Picks 4-6 don't get cute and take the WR.

 

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I totally feel people are way to easily into this idea you're going to just plug in these late rbs and have instant success. A few will catch lightning in a bottle sure but from my experience it's a hell of a lot easier to fill in WR gaps than rb. Especially with the proven players who have been petty durable and give you a nice foundation to build around. 

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8 minutes ago, lightweight3 said:

I'm still taking Mccoy in the first.  The few carries he got last game he looked awesome.  To me, it's a coin toss between him and AB due to the scarcity of quality RBs.  

Bingo.   In 2016, There was almost no difference between bust rate of top 20 rbs and WRs picked.    "Safety" is the most overused and misunderstood term out there in fantasy.  

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3 minutes ago, Savatage79 said:

I totally feel people are way to easily into this idea you're going to just plug in these late rbs and have instant success. A few will catch lightning in a bottle sure but from my experience it's a hell of a lot easier to fill in WR gaps than rb. Especially with the proven players who have been petty durable and give you a nice foundation to build around. 

 

 

I find it to be quite theopposite, where I can find a serviceable rb off the waiver or bench  that can fill the gap if i lose a stud rb vs finding a consistent wr to fill in the points gap if i lose my stud wr.

Edited by dashoe
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30 minutes ago, lightweight3 said:

I'm still taking Mccoy in the first.  The few carries he got last game he looked awesome.  To me, it's a coin toss between him and AB due to the scarcity of quality RBs.  

 

19 minutes ago, Impreza178 said:

Bingo.   In 2016, There was almost no difference between bust rate of top 20 rbs and WRs picked.    "Safety" is the most overused and misunderstood term out there in fantasy.  

 

225 touches, 1150 all-purpose yards, 10 TDs, 13-of-16 games played

 

seems a realistic floor, but I imagine his ceiling will be capped by health issues: Shady has had nagging health issues during 5 of his 8 years in the NFL

 

"they" say Jonathan Williams is a capable cuff, and although I own him in dynasty I have yet to see explosiveness or any exceptionality. I don't cuff often, but if you make the Shady investment at his current price, seems crazy not to grab JonWill though I'd prefer Karlos Williams... 

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17 hours ago, CamNewton said:

That would be an ideal situation given that Philly has the best offensive line in the league. It's not happening though. I think he stays in Buffalo.

Wrong. I'd take 4 or 5 other offensive lines before Philly's

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8 hours ago, Impreza178 said:

Bingo.   In 2016, There was almost no difference between bust rate of top 20 rbs and WRs picked.    "Safety" is the most overused and misunderstood term out there in fantasy.  

 

Good point. The notion that WRs are more reliable than RBs is overplayed. The former get injured less than the latter but WRs are more reliant on the team than other skill positions. Players like Hopkins, Robinson, and Marshall tanked last year despite being healthy. 

 

Last year the top WRs taken were Brown, Jones, Beckham, Hopkins, Robinson, and Green. Hopkins and Robinson completely busted. Green played well--but missed nearly half the season, including the fantasy playoffs, with injury. Jones also played well and missed only two games--but those were week 13 and 14 (so he missed the first round of the playoffs in many leagues). Moreover, Jones had four no show games where he had 35 yards or less. That's six games where Jones either didn't play or played and contributed nothing. Only Brown and Beckham were clear successes. 

 

People overlook how handcuffing can help protect your RB investment. If a RB has a good handcuff (someone like Langford or Blue doesn't count) you can still get solid value from the handcuff if he is pressed into service. You can't do the same with WR. 

 

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To me, it's a coin toss between him and AB due to the scarcity of quality RBs.  

 

Agreed. Also, RBs have a higher ceiling than WRs. McCoy, when healthy, averaged 130 yards per game last year. That's almost impossible for a WR to match.

 

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I totally feel people are way to easily into this idea you're going to just plug in these late rbs and have instant success. A few will catch lightning in a bottle sure but from my experience it's a hell of a lot easier to fill in WR gaps than rb.

 

Yeah, the problems with the "late round RB/zero RB" strategy and its twin of going light on RB in drafts in favor of relying on waiver wire pickups are: 1) you have to hit on a late round RB or two 2) waiver wire RBs that contribute always emerge--but half the league will be trying to pick up the same guy. What are the odds that you will land him? You could have decent odds in an auction waiver system--but you would have to unload your FAAB budget and then hope the guy produces. These are not guarantees.

 

It is a lot easier to find WR2 production on the wire (Pryor, Matthews, Adams, Williams are all good examples from last year) than good RB production. This is partly because the WRs who emerge on the waiver wire require more research and analysis to find whereas everyone knows who the "next man up" is when a starting RB goes down or loses his gig. 

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I was really sold on taking McCoy this year with my 1st round pick.  I've always leaned Rb heavy , especially early on  and it's brought me success, but after analyzing the situation i'm going to pass.

 

It's a new Regime in Buffalo.  They just traded Watkins and Darby, Taylor took a paycut ,  - it's obvious they're cleaning house.  

 

Mccoy will get the touches early on and have some good games until the team starts to loose.  he's also a big risk to get hurt.   Also Rb's on bad teams usually don't do very well.  i'd say he's a low-end RB1 this year.

Edited by nk3323
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18 minutes ago, nk3323 said:

I was really sold on taking McCoy this year with my 1st round pick.  I've always leaned Rb heavy , especially early on  and it's brought me success, but after analyzing the situation i'm going to pass.

 

It's a new Regime in Buffalo.  They just traded Watkins and Darby, Taylor took a paycut ,  - it's obvious they're cleaning house.  

 

Mccoy will get the touches early on and have some good games until the team starts to loose.  he's also a big risk to get hurt.   Also Rb's on bad teams usually don't do very well.  i'd say he's a low-end RB1 this year.

So now all of the sudden he's a "low-end" WR after your analysis? Who are the mid RB1's then?

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10 minutes ago, Savatage79 said:

Why would anyone doubt his durability? He's missed 11 games in 8 seasons. 

 

A good point. But he's also only had 3 full seasons out of 8. Maybe it's accurate to suggest that the solidity of Shady's constitution spares him from the bigger injuries but not the little ones that have him missing a game here and there; this appears evident from the 8-year sample size.

 

Even if he plays 15 games this year, he could still rival Zay and JMatthews for reception totals.

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12 hours ago, ponchsox said:

So now all of the sudden he's a "low-end" WR after your analysis? Who are the mid RB1's then?

 

That's always the Million dollar question, isn't it..... i'm not quite sure, but I just think that Mccoy will put up low end Rb1 type #s this year.  

 

12 hours ago, Catch23 said:

I'm not sure why people are expecting a worse year out of McCoy. While Watkins isn't on the team, he was barely there last year too and I would say the current WR core is the same if not better than last years when you exclude Watkins. 

Even though they were without Watkins last year, this year it's different - you have to think about the mentality and moral of the players after the new coaches and trades.   They are in re-building mode.   The players probably know they're tanking the season (since there is supposedly a good draft class of Qbs next year).  So why would Shady, being 29, be willing to put his body on the line for a lost season?

 

just as a side note - Glenn, probably one of their best offensive lineman, is hurt

Edited by nk3323
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17 minutes ago, nk3323 said:

 

There is no insight whatsoever in that article.  It just reports speculation (by a fantasy football writer) that the Bills should theoretically be shopping McCoy.

 

headline:  "McCoy unhappy in Buffalo"

the money quote:  "It would not be a surprise if he is unhappy in Buffalo."

 

  :rolleyes::rolleyes::rolleyes:

 

 

Edited by Nap Time
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26 minutes ago, Nap Time said:

 

There is no insight whatsoever in that article.  It just reports speculation (by a fantasy football writer) that the Bills should theoretically be shopping McCoy.

 

headline:  "McCoy unhappy in Buffalo"

the money quote:  "It would not be a surprise if he is unhappy in Buffalo."

 

  :rolleyes::rolleyes::rolleyes:

 

 

 

I know, and there probably won't be a source since the Bills  won't make it so obvious , as with the Watkins trade, Mccoy said he was "shocked".   But the writer is basing it on logic and it DOES make sense for the Bills to shop him around, although he probably won't get traded since they still need to sell tickets.  

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14 hours ago, PackerBacker555 said:

Baltimore and the Jets are possibilities, but I see Baltimore as a better option. 

 

The Jets would make no sense; they are tanking too and are a divisional rival.  Baltimore I could understand (sort of, I really don't think West/Woodhead/Buck Allen is a bad three-man corps) but realistically I see Buffalo wanting to trade him to an NFC team.  Philadelphia seems like the most logical landing spot as they are disillusioned with Blount and really have no other option for the lead role.  It might make sense for Green Bay if Monty's injury problems are worrying them and they think the rookies need a year to develop.  

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13 hours ago, nk3323 said:

 

I know, and there probably won't be a source since the Bills  won't make it so obvious , as with the Watkins trade, Mccoy said he was "shocked".   But the writer is basing it on logic and it DOES make sense for the Bills to shop him around, although he probably won't get traded since they still need to sell tickets.  

 

Actual multiple sources have confirmed the Bills have no intention of trading him and never did:

http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2017/08/22/bills-havent-entertained-lesean-mccoy-trade-offers-and-wont/

 

 

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People bail way to quick on guys, shady is not about to look like an a** every Sunday getting beat down, he will do what he does best.  Maybe we have some newer or younger players but believe me he was on some bad eagles teams and still did well. 

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