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Christan Pache-OF ATL


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All this weight gain is good for the power, but I can't see this being great for his speed. I always thought his upside was tied to his steals potential. It is easy to find HRs and hard to find steals. This is nitpicking for sure, so it isn't that big of a deal, but I am more interested in his steals attempts this year than his HR total. He is on my dynasty team so I am invested. 

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He hit 2 HR's this weekend and apparently entered Spring Training with an added 20 lbs. of muscle and he is looking to add an additional 10-15 lbs.  He weighed 185 after the 2017 season. He

His elite defense will get him to the bigs either way, but if he can keep putting the offensive side together he could be something quite special.  The power is somewhat new, so if this trend continue

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1 hour ago, thezing1 said:

All this weight gain is good for the power, but I can't see this being great for his speed. I always thought his upside was tied to his steals potential. It is easy to find HRs and hard to find steals. This is nitpicking for sure, so it isn't that big of a deal, but I am more interested in his steals attempts this year than his HR total. He is on my dynasty team so I am invested. 

 

Not always a matter of speed. You can have great instincts and still steal a lot bases. I think he will be fine. A guy that comes to mind in recent memory is Carl Crawford who added weight to his profile during his prime years with the rays and still stole a ton of bases. This kid will be fine in that department. if he adds more power to his game that is a great thing and will only seem to make him more valuable as a fantasy asset in my eyes.

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On 3/11/2019 at 7:11 PM, Osu1456 said:

 

Not always a matter of speed. You can have great instincts and still steal a lot bases. I think he will be fine. A guy that comes to mind in recent memory is Carl Crawford who added weight to his profile during his prime years with the rays and still stole a ton of bases. This kid will be fine in that department. if he adds more power to his game that is a great thing and will only seem to make him more valuable as a fantasy asset in my eyes.

100% agree with what I bolded. Unfortunately, I do not know if Pache has the instincts. Here are his games played per steal attempt over the last 3 years: 3.6, 2.6, 8.1. That is a massive drop off in attempts last season and he stole less than he was caught. Sure, maybe a little bit has to do with being young in AA, but in the minors is when you are supposed to learn and make all of your mistakes. He is really fast, but I am worried that he lacks the ability to steal bases. My concern is that he just goes the route of power and stops developing the steals component of his game.

I am still concerned about what the chase of power will do to his steals until I see his steals attempts and success rate rise. If he sells out for power he needs to reach a high ceiling there to offset the fantasy impact to his steals. It basically comes down to a question of 5/35; 10/25; 15/20; 20/15; 25/8; 30/5.... or some sort of arch resembling that and where you think optimal fantasy value exists. Crawford never sold out his steals to pursue his mediocre (at best) power. I just hope Pache does the same and I really, really, really hope he runs 50+ times this year even if he gets thrown out 25+ times. I can't think of a player that became great at SB in the majors that didn't demonstrate or hone the skill in the minors with reps. 

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Saw Pache a couple times this spring in person and I came back impressed with the kid. How impressed? I traded for him right after I came back from my spring training trip!

He demonstrated good power to left and left center during batting practice, with two swings resulted in hitting the tall wall twice in the left center field and another swing pass the left field. In game, the one HR I saw was to the left (Friday 3/9), just flied over the left field wall. I think his power has come along and will continue to get better. I think 15+ HR once he reaches major, shouldn't be an issue; his calling card is his speed of course but did not get to see him running the bases. However, based on my research, 30+ SB should be easy for Pache especially if he gets more reps and instruction on how to read pitchers and techniques on base steeling.

 

8 hours ago, thezing1 said:

100% agree with what I bolded. Unfortunately, I do not know if Pache has the instincts. Here are his games played per steal attempt over the last 3 years: 3.6, 2.6, 8.1. That is a massive drop off in attempts last season and he stole less than he was caught. Sure, maybe a little bit has to do with being young in AA, but in the minors is when you are supposed to learn and make all of your mistakes. He is really fast, but I am worried that he lacks the ability to steal bases. My concern is that he just goes the route of power and stops developing the steals component of his game.

I am still concerned about what the chase of power will do to his steals until I see his steals attempts and success rate rise. If he sells out for power he needs to reach a high ceiling there to offset the fantasy impact to his steals. It basically comes down to a question of 5/35; 10/25; 15/20; 20/15; 25/8; 30/5.... or some sort of arch resembling that and where you think optimal fantasy value exists. Crawford never sold out his steals to pursue his mediocre (at best) power. I just hope Pache does the same and I really, really, really hope he runs 50+ times this year even if he gets thrown out 25+ times. I can't think of a player that became great at SB in the majors that didn't demonstrate or hone the skill in the minors with reps. 

 

Instincts can be taught as well with techniques and experience; so not too worry on that either. Not sure why he dropped his stolen bases attempts, couldn't find where he got hurt a bit on his legs that he decided not to run. But I still am confident that he will run in the long run.

 

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On 3/6/2018 at 5:59 PM, NYR Fan 116894 said:
  1. Cristian Pache is my favorite breakout candidate in the system this year. He will likely follow in Acuna’s footsteps and spend the year at Rome, and he is an 18-year old with 5-tool potential. Pache’s stats from last season were solid, but he did not tap into any home run power. Scouts expect that to come, and a full season should help put it on display. Pache possesses solid bat to ball skills and good speed. If you missed the quick rise of Acuna, pounce on Pache now.
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On 3/13/2019 at 8:15 AM, AF25 said:

Saw Pache a couple times this spring in person and I came back impressed with the kid. How impressed? I traded for him right after I came back from my spring training trip!

He demonstrated good power to left and left center during batting practice, with two swings resulted in hitting the tall wall twice in the left center field and another swing pass the left field. In game, the one HR I saw was to the left (Friday 3/9), just flied over the left field wall. I think his power has come along and will continue to get better. I think 15+ HR once he reaches major, shouldn't be an issue; his calling card is his speed of course but did not get to see him running the bases. However, based on my research, 30+ SB should be easy for Pache especially if he gets more reps and instruction on how to read pitchers and techniques on base steeling.

 

 

Instincts can be taught as well with techniques and experience; so not too worry on that either. Not sure why he dropped his stolen bases attempts, couldn't find where he got hurt a bit on his legs that he decided not to run. But I still am confident that he will run in the long run.

 

 

Braves wanted him to focus more on changing his swing.  They know he can run.  What's the old saying, once you show a skill you own it.  

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2 hours ago, QALIYATSIA said:
  1. Cristian Pache is my favorite breakout candidate in the system this year. He will likely follow in Acuna’s footsteps and spend the year at Rome, and he is an 18-year old with 5-tool potential. Pache’s stats from last season were Audacity Find My iPhone Originsolid, but he did not tap into any home run power. Scouts expect that to come, and a full season should help put it on display. Pache possesses solid bat to ball skills and good speed. If you missed the quick rise of Acuna, pounce on Pache now.

 

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On 3/17/2019 at 1:16 PM, kidtwentytwo said:

 

Braves wanted him to focus more on changing his swing.  They know he can run.  What's the old saying, once you show a skill you own it.  

I might be missing something and I maybe I just can't see the forest for the trees. I traded for him in dynasty a couple of months ago so I am invested, but I just need to see what you all are seeing or what angle you are looking at his steals from. 

His speed plays on defense. No doubt about it. His speed plays on extra base hits. No doubt about it. But his speed, from what I have seen, does not play in stolen bases. I do not think the Braves think he can steal bases. He has not proven this skill in any meaningful way in advanced levels of the minors. I get it that he is young, but I am more worried about his steals potential in the MLB than anything else (only thing that kind of concerns me is his OBP). So what are you all seeing with his steals because I am obviously not seeing it...are you all projecting his 80 speed tool to eventually play on the base paths? Are you overlooking an entire year of development where he went 7 for 15 on steals? Am I not giving him the benefit of youth? Thanks for any insight you can provide. 

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199 PAs in, seems like a good time to check in on our boy:

.302/.354/.495, 4 hr, 6 sb, 24 rbi, 23 runs, 13 2b, 5 3b. 

 

It appears that the power has come along just as the prophets foretold. If he keeps this up in addition to the plus plus defense, its not crazy to say he could come up this summer to the show. Obviously Markakis coming down with whooping cough or dysentery would help things. 

 

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1 hour ago, hgh22 said:

199 PAs in, seems like a good time to check in on our boy:

.302/.354/.495, 4 hr, 6 sb, 24 rbi, 23 runs, 13 2b, 5 3b. 

 

It appears that the power has come along just as the prophets foretold. If he keeps this up in addition to the plus plus defense, its not crazy to say he could come up this summer to the show. Obviously Markakis coming down with whooping cough or dysentery would help things. 

 

6 SB with 6 CS is not what i was hoping to see at this point though.. an OF who goes 300/350 with 10-12 HR and 12-15 SB is not overly desirable. need to see his plus-plus wheels better utilized.

not that he would be chop liver with those numbers, but that's what... ender inciarte type numbers?

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Fair point - I also should have mentioned the 25.6% k rate and 7.5% walk rate - Atlanta will probably want to see the caught stealing and walk numbers improve before promoting him to the show. Still at 20 I am encouraged by what we've seen. 

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7 minutes ago, osb_tensor said:

6 SB with 6 CS is not what i was hoping to see at this point though.. an OF who goes 300/350 with 10-12 HR and 12-15 SB is not overly desirable. need to see his plus-plus wheels better utilized.

not that he would be chop liver with those numbers, but that's what... ender inciarte type numbers?

I hear ya, but also CS numbers in the minors are trickier...could be a number of blown calls, etc factored in...who knows? But we do know he has plus speed and when he polishes up his instincts some I would expect his success rate to climb accordingly. I think he has 25HR/30SB upside in the bigs.

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1 hour ago, osb_tensor said:

6 SB with 6 CS is not what i was hoping to see at this point though.. an OF who goes 300/350 with 10-12 HR and 12-15 SB is not overly desirable. need to see his plus-plus wheels better utilized.

not that he would be chop liver with those numbers, but that's what... ender inciarte type numbers?

We’ll see but I think he will be a 20/20 guy with potential for more. Braves scouts absolutely love him and he is way ahead of Ender at the same stage.

 

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Any updates for a potential buyer in a keeper league?

The CS's do worry me a bit but he apparently has 70 speed according to FG. So surely he just needs to hone his craft over the next year or so and he could still become a 30/15 guy in majors?

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4 hours ago, swfcdan said:

Any updates for a potential buyer in a keeper league?

The CS's do worry me a bit but he apparently has 70 speed according to FG. So surely he just needs to hone his craft over the next year or so and he could still become a 30/15 guy in majors?

flip those numbers and you might be onto something. The caught stealings don't worry me too much. I think he can be a 20 hr/30 sb guy with a .280 avg.

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Everyone has this guy pegged for 30 SB but forget that Atlanta is in the bottom 1/4 of the league in SB per game. They simply aren’t a team that runs that much.

Albies has 70 grade speed too and barely steals any bags.

Point is, just because a player has great speed doesn’t automatically mean he will steal 25-30 bags. A lot comes down to their success rate and the philosophy of hr team they play for. You think a team like Atlanta who doesn’t run much is going to overlook Pache’s lack of success stealing bases and let him run wild on the bases? Lol.

 

EDIT: Part of the Braves’ lack of SB does come from not having a lineup full of base stealers but the point still stands.

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  • 2 weeks later...

.294 / .352 / .519 as of July 9th. 
Not bad for the supposed best defensive outfielder in the minors. 
A gold-glover-in-waiting who also has elite speed.

It would be hard to keep him out of a top-15 prospect list at this point. 

and in case anyone was wondering it's Cristian - no "h".   

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