Jump to content
NBC Sports Edge Forums

Melvin Gordon 2017 Outlook


Recommended Posts

  • Replies 702
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

4 minutes ago, FlashGordon401 said:

You guys think he'll be worth the 1st-2nd round price tag this upcoming season?

 

No. 

 

But I'm a noted Gordon hater....completely right in 2015, completely wrong in 2016 about him. 

 

Boltup15 is the person to ask on Gordon. 

 

Link to post
Share on other sites
3 hours ago, FlashGordon401 said:

You guys think he'll be worth the 1st-2nd round price tag this upcoming season?

 

Depends.

 

Are they going to bring back Woodhead?  Will Woodhead cut into red zone opps again?

 

Is Turek ready to take over at center?

 

What are they going to do at LT?  Leave as is or upgrade and move Dunlap to RT upgrading two spots?

 

Tbd...

 

You could actually see his ypc go up but his fantasy points go down if Woodhead or someone like him reclaims a 30 to 35% share of the offense.

Link to post
Share on other sites

He got legitimately better on paper as well as the eye test, so I'd happily spend a late second on him.  Woodhead could potentially hurt him (because Woodhead is a master of what he does and a decent GL threat surprisingly, and Gordon made a lot of fantasy money on the GL and passing game), but I buy in to Gordon's improvement.  If Woodhead wasn't in the picture, I'd be looking at a first round pick easily. Depending on who else is on the board at that point (I might go homer and grab Bryant), I'm definitely interested in Gordon late second. Fairly big upside, although the floor is worrying at that level.

Link to post
Share on other sites

In the second round? I'll probably pass but the RB's after the top 3 aren't my favorites. I got lucky last year with the Woodhead injury. Although the two TD's week 1 were nice. 

 

My thoughts about him resolve around 4 points. 

 

1. New coach, loves to run, probably 15+ carries a game

2. Woodhead is back, is Gordon going to see a reduction reception volume? Definitely. 

3. I think the team improves a lot and plays ahead most of the season or at least has a bunch of close games (improved defense). The Chargers when ahead love to run. 

4. Awful o-line. It's garbage. 

 

He's still going to get the volume, has no competition for carries and will not lose his job. He will lose receptions (Woodhead). He's on a balanced offense. Lots of red zone opportunities. It couldn't hurt picking him in fantasy this year in the second round. I'd rather have him over Howard and Ajayi but still don't love taking him in the second because of my view on drafting RB's. 

Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, boltup15 said:

In the second round? I'll probably pass but the RB's after the top 3 aren't my favorites. I got lucky last year with the Woodhead injury. Although the two TD's week 1 were nice. 

 

My thoughts about him resolve around 4 points. 

 

1. New coach, loves to run, probably 15+ carries a game

2. Woodhead is back, is Gordon going to see a reduction reception volume? Definitely. 

3. I think the team improves a lot and plays ahead most of the season or at least has a bunch of close games (improved defense). The Chargers when ahead love to run. 

4. Awful o-line. It's garbage. 

 

He's still going to get the volume, has no competition for carries and will not lose his job. He will lose receptions (Woodhead). He's on a balanced offense. Lots of red zone opportunities. It couldn't hurt picking him in fantasy this year in the second round. I'd rather have him over Howard and Ajayi but still don't love taking him in the second because of my view on drafting RB's. 

Excellent post. 
I love your last point. If it's him vs. "those guys" meaning the JAGs behind good offensive lines, I'm taking him every time. It conflicts with my general strategy though.
When I do go RB heavy, he will literally be my pick every single time in all formats. Relative to the RBs who go in the first round, I would much rather draft Melvin Gordon in the 2nd/3rd. Similar to Shady last year, he will be fantasy's best bellcow value. 

Two things will scare everyone else away: His relatively average YPC and his likely TD regression. 

His YPC and YPT were right on the threshold of where I like it to be. When you are an all purpose workhorse bellcow 3 down stat compiler, or whatever you want to call it, that doesn't matter all that much. 
I actually don't think it's out of the question for him to get double digit TDs again this year. It's truly where he separates himself from other backs. He was top 5 in breakaway runs AND red zone carries BOTH. He gets his TD opportunities in all kinds of ways and I only expect the offense to be making more trips to the red zone with the return of Keenan who will hopefully be healthy or even half the player he was before. 

Now, obviously the Chargers are going to draft a safety with their first round selection. In round 2, it could be possible that they take a chance on improving a very league average offensive line. If the league average offensive line improves to above average, maybe we see the YPC go from average to extraordinary. I feel like he still has untapped upside as a runner.

Look out. 

Edited by CL3VELANDBR0WNS
Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, CL3VELANDBR0WNS said:

Excellent post. 
I love your last point. If it's him vs. "those guys" meaning the JAGs behind good offensive lines, I'm taking him every time. It conflicts with my general strategy though.
When I do go RB heavy, he will literally be my pick every single time in all formats. Relative to the RBs who go in the first round, I would much rather draft Melvin Gordon in the 2nd/3rd. Similar to Shady last year, he will be fantasy's best bellcow value. 

Two things will scare everyone else away: His relatively average YPC and his likely TD regression. 

His YPC and YPT were right on the threshold of where I like it to be. When you are an all purpose workhorse bellcow 3 down stat compiler, or whatever you want to call it, that doesn't matter all that much. 
I actually don't think it's out of the question for him to get double digit TDs again this year. It's truly where he separates himself from other backs. He was top 5 in breakaway runs AND red zone carries BOTH. He gets his TD opportunities in all kinds of ways and I only expect the offense to be making more trips to the red zone with the return of Keenan who will hopefully be healthy or even half the player he was before. 

Now, obviously the Chargers are going to draft a safety with their first round selection. In round 2, it could be possible that they take a chance on improving a very league average offensive line. If the league average offensive line improves to above average, maybe we see the YPC go from average to extraordinary. I feel like he still has untapped upside as a runner.

Look out. 

 

Agree with both of the above. 

 

In a vacuum we haven't seen the best of him yet. 

Link to post
Share on other sites
12 minutes ago, cowboy5xsbs said:

TD dependent running back always scare me.

TD dependent... come on do your research. In the 12 games he played he averaged 16.2 ppg in ppr without TD's...

Edited by boltup15
Link to post
Share on other sites
14 hours ago, CL3VELANDBR0WNS said:

love your last point. If it's him vs. "those guys" meaning the JAGs behind good offensive lines,

CLE, you think Howard is a JAG?  i don't.    I thought once Howard got that job when Langford went down he made the most of it.  CHI OL improved, but if you watched the guy run i felt like he rarely left a ton of yards on the field for a rookie.  He needs some polishing overall but i think that will come with more experience. Given the overall circumstance of the CHI offense in 16', i thought Howard was dang good. Talent wise i don't see a superior runner in Gordon over Howard.  I simply think Gordon is in a better situation overall, but the talent is comparable in my eyes.

  I think as of today i'd consider Gordon ahead of Howard in my overall rankings. Thats mostly due to what i think is ahead for the LA offense though, which i see good things coming.  They have a stable QB, good WR options, and a good returning defense.  The OL still worries me in a tough division for LA, but overall as stated previously, i see Gordon's carries and red zone numbers being healthy.  The Chargers will address the OL i would think in this draft as well.

 

What is your knock on Howard?  what are you seeing from Gordon talent wise that clearly has him that far ahead of guys like Howard, or i guess even Ajayi.  For the record, I'm not sure what i think of Ajayi as of now.  What i do know, his OL may be the best in football in 17' if they line up healthy

Edited by BlakeP42
Link to post
Share on other sites
12 minutes ago, BlakeP42 said:

CLE, you think Howard is a JAG?  i don't.    I thought once Howard got that job when Langford went down he made the most of it.  CHI OL improved, but if you watched the guy run i felt like he rarely left a ton of yards on the field for a rookie.  He needs some polishing overall but i think that will come with more experience. Given the overall circumstance of the CHI offense in 16', i thought Howard was dang good. Talent wise i don't see a superior runner in Gordon over Howard.  I simply think Gordon is in a better situation overall, but the talent is comparable in my eyes.

  I think as of today i'd consider Gordon ahead of Howard in my overall rankings. Thats mostly due to what i think is ahead for the LA offense though, which i see good things coming.  They have a stable QB, good WR options, and a good returning defense.  The OL still worries me in a tough division for LA, but overall as stated previously, i see Gordon's carries and red zone numbers being healthy.  The Chargers will address the OL i would think in this draft as well.

 

What is your knock on Howard?  what are you seeing from Gordon talent wise that clearly has him that far ahead of guys like Howard, or i guess even Ajayi.  For the record, I'm not sure what i think of Ajayi as of now.  What i do know, his OL may be the best in football in 17' if they line up healthy

 

Howard seems to get the most out of every run possible.  That's not a criticism, that's a good thing.  His vision is underrated.

 

But Gordon can create more on his own.  

People would be surprised to learn that the Chicago interior OL was one of the better run blocking units in the league.  SD the opposite.  Gordon had to dodge defenders in the backfield more often.

 

In a vacuum Gordon is a superior talent due to agility and burst BUT Howard is better than initially thought coming into the league. 

Link to post
Share on other sites
17 minutes ago, 96mnc said:

 

Howard seems to get the most out of every run possible.  That's not a criticism, that's a good thing.  His vision is underrated.

 

But Gordon can create more on his own.  

People would be surprised to learn that the Chicago interior OL was one of the better run blocking units in the league.  SD the opposite.  Gordon had to dodge defenders in the backfield more often.

 

In a vacuum Gordon is a superior talent due to agility and burst BUT Howard is better than initially thought coming into the league. 

i think the burst i see from Howard is comparable, and i think their 40's are pretty similar,  but Gordon's overall game took a step forward in the second year, so i do agree, Gordon as of now is the better overall player.  As i mentioned and agree, CHI's OL did improve this past year and SD's was a mess overall.  I just wanted clarity on what CLE's thoughts were on Howard being a JAG vs what he's seen from Gordon in two seasons.   I sure we could dive deep into this discussion with many excuses on both sides, but Gordon was flat awful in his rookie year for many reasons, not all of which fall on his shoulders i might add.  IF Howard takes his step forward in 17', i pray many pass on him as it seems a guy like CLE would.   If anyone lets Howard slip past the 3rd round i think you have made a mistake, IMO.

 

What i want to see from Howard in 17', haul in more of his targets.  If you look into the numbers, he's right there with a guy like Gordon if he brings in more catches from his target total.

Link to post
Share on other sites
20 minutes ago, BlakeP42 said:

i think the burst i see from Howard is comparable, and i think their 40's are pretty similar,  but Gordon's overall game took a step forward in the second year, so i do agree, Gordon as of now is the better overall player.  As i mentioned and agree, CHI's OL did improve this past year and SD's was a mess overall.  I just wanted clarity on what CLE's thoughts were on Howard being a JAG vs what he's seen from Gordon in two seasons.   I sure we could dive deep into this discussion with many excuses on both sides, but Gordon was flat awful in his rookie year for many reasons, not all of which fall on his shoulders i might add.  IF Howard takes his step forward in 17', i pray many pass on him as it seems a guy like CLE would.   If anyone lets Howard slip past the 3rd round i think you have made a mistake, IMO.

 

What i want to see from Howard in 17', haul in more of his targets.  If you look into the numbers, he's right there with a guy like Gordon if he brings in more catches from his target total.

 

Couple of things -

 

Burst isn't measured by 40 time,  it's measured by the long jump, high jump,  etc.   It measures explosion, not speed.  How it correlates to the eye on the football field is initial suddenness going forward.

 

Gordon rookie year struggles - 

SD oline was even worse than it was in 2016.  PLUS, they had him running from shotgun predominantly when he played downhill with a FB in college.   The visual keys are different with a fullback vs from shotgun.  Gordon had three years in college running with a fb and SD stupidily decided to try and make him a shotgun runner his rookie year.  Smh.

 

Howard criticisms coming into the league -

Average athlete.  Poor explosion and agility.  Wasn't a monster producer in college,  low ypc.  He got his stats in volume, not by pure ability and skill.  These are the reasons he slipped to the 5th round of the NFL draft. 

 

What's changed?  I think people underestimated his vision.  Also, he was only 21 when drafted so there was probably a bit more room for physical and athletic upside there than expected.  I'm still not convinced he's a monster talent capable of creating on his own but I was pleasantly surprised by him this season.

 

I'm expecting him to have a second round adp next year.   

Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, BlakeP42 said:

i think the burst i see from Howard is comparable, and i think their 40's are pretty similar,  but Gordon's overall game took a step forward in the second year, so i do agree, Gordon as of now is the better overall player.  As i mentioned and agree, CHI's OL did improve this past year and SD's was a mess overall.  I just wanted clarity on what CLE's thoughts were on Howard being a JAG vs what he's seen from Gordon in two seasons.   I sure we could dive deep into this discussion with many excuses on both sides, but Gordon was flat awful in his rookie year for many reasons, not all of which fall on his shoulders i might add.  IF Howard takes his step forward in 17', i pray many pass on him as it seems a guy like CLE would.   If anyone lets Howard slip past the 3rd round i think you have made a mistake, IMO.

 

What i want to see from Howard in 17', haul in more of his targets.  If you look into the numbers, he's right there with a guy like Gordon if he brings in more catches from his target total.

Howard Burst Score: 47th percentile
Gordon Burst Score: 68th percentile
Their speed is comparable but Gordon far more agile.
Howard gets what he is given and always falls forward but he is easily a replaceable back in a great situation.

Link to post
Share on other sites
33 minutes ago, 96mnc said:

 

Couple of things -

 

Burst isn't measured by 40 time,  it's measured by the long jump, high jump,  etc.   It measures explosion, not speed.  How it correlates to the eye on the football field is initial suddenness going forward.

 

Gordon rookie year struggles - 

SD oline was even worse than it was in 2016.  PLUS, they had him running from shotgun predominantly when he played downhill with a FB in college.   The visual keys are different with a fullback vs from shotgun.  Gordon had three years in college running with a fb and SD stupidily decided to try and make him a shotgun runner his rookie year.  Smh.

 

Howard criticisms coming into the league -

Average athlete.  Poor explosion and agility.  Wasn't a monster producer in college,  low ypc.  He got his stats in volume, not by pure ability and skill.  These are the reasons he slipped to the 5th round of the NFL draft. 

 

What's changed?  I think people underestimated his vision.  Also, he was only 21 when drafted so there was probably a bit more room for physical and athletic upside there than expected.  I'm still not convinced he's a monster talent capable of creating on his own but I was pleasantly surprised by him this season.

 

I'm expecting him to have a second round adp next year.   

Gordon's a very good talent and his 2014 college season was  remarkable.  He def profiled better in college across the board to a point only Howard could dream of. .  Good expansion on the burst comment, i do understand those traits to take into account.  I was just commenting that they both timed out close at the combine, granted Gordon's time was surprising and underwhelming at the time.   More importantly, I'm telling you what i saw from Howard with my own eyes on game day, and i saw a kid with burst of his own degree.   Hands to the fire i will admit i think Gordon has more overall wiggle and speed to his game and Gordon did test better then Howard in the vert jump and broad, but not by a huge margin.    i don't really follow people underestimating Howards vision, it was his stronger attribute in college. I think people are more underestimating his ability to run through the interior and his relentless style of running. Something that IMO, he does better then Gordon.  Howard gets to the second level well, and i saw a kid that could find another gear when he saw daylight.

  Im not really here to question Gordon.  I just wanted to discuss high confidence in Gordon vs low confidence in Howard heading into 17'  .I have already admitted multiple times i made a mistake in avoiding him in 2016 based off the S show in SD the previous year.  I do agree with your analysis of Gordon/SD in his rookie year for the most part.  I was scared off based off everything included for that year.   Lesson learned lol

Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, CL3VELANDBR0WNS said:

Howard gets what he is given and always falls forward but he is easily a replaceable back in a great situation.

i'd argue Howard would have posted similar numbers to Gordon if he was the day 1 starter in SD this past season.  You really think Howard is that spare??

 

Why?  <<<this is the part I'm waiting on

Link to post
Share on other sites
4 minutes ago, BlakeP42 said:

i'd argue Howard would have posted similar numbers to Gordon if he was the day 1 starter in SD this past season.  You really think Howard is that spare??

 

Why?  <<<this is the part I'm waiting on

Average to below average:
College producer, college efficiency, pass catcher.
He's a really big early down back and you can find that in any draft class. His talent is that of a redundant two down pounder.

Edited by CL3VELANDBR0WNS
Link to post
Share on other sites
7 minutes ago, CL3VELANDBR0WNS said:

Average to below average:
College producer, college efficiency, pass catcher.
He's a really big two down pounder and you can find that in any draft class. His talent is that of a redundant two down pounder.

Well, Gordon was a very below avg pass catcher in college.  It was one of his bigger concerns coming into the combine.   Many profiles pegged Gordon as an untrustworthy 3 down RB coming in.  Gordon also ran behind a superior OL in college and his carries far exceeded Howards.  I will admit though, Gordon's college resume and competition overall are greater.  I guess i will agree to disagree. I just wanted to see your opinion.  Luckily, time will tell.  My main concern for Howard is pretty much the same that was said coming-out of college: his health.   I think if Howard is healthy, he will be a very good RB, 3 down worthy.  As i said also, his improvement needs to come in bringing in more of his targets.  Something i think he can work on, as did Gordon apparently 

 

Maybe if Howard drops 5-7 pounds he will be right at the Gordon size as well.  He's not all that much bigger then Gordon now to be honest

Edited by BlakeP42
Link to post
Share on other sites
12 minutes ago, BlakeP42 said:

Well, Gordon was a very below avg pass catcher in college.  It was one of his bigger concerns coming into the combine.   Many profiles pegged Gordon as an untrustworthy 3 down RB coming in.  Gordon also ran behind a superior OL in college and his carries far exceeded Howards.  I will admit though, Gordon's college resume and competition overall are greater.  I guess i will agree to disagree. I just wanted to see your opinion.  Luckily, time will tell.  My main concern for Howard is pretty much the same that was said coming-out of college: his health.   I think if Howard is healthy, he will be a very good RB, 3 down worthy.  As i said also, his improvement needs to come in bringing in more of his targets.  Something i think he can work on, as did Gordon apparently 

 

Maybe if Howard drops 5-7 pounds he will be right at the Gordon size as well.  He's not all that much bigger then Gordon now to be honest

 

If you watched film of Gordon catching passes in the predraft process (combine or pro day) you saw a guy that naturally tracked the ball well into his hands and had soft hands.  Just because he wasn't asked to catch passes in college didn't mean he was incapable of doing it.  And he showed that ability in preseason 2015 as well. 

Link to post
Share on other sites
30 minutes ago, BlakeP42 said:

i'd argue Howard would have posted similar numbers to Gordon if he was the day 1 starter in SD this past season.  You really think Howard is that spare??

 

Why?  <<<this is the part I'm waiting on

 

Gordon's agility/burst/wiggle allowed him to make the most of a crappy run blocking situation.  He had to dodge defenders earlier than Howard did.  He had to do more on his own to gain yards than Howard did.

 

I haven't bothered to look yet but the following stats would likely back up the above comment:

 

- average yards before first contact generated by the oline (I'd expect that Chicago got Howard deeper into the defense than SD did Gordon)

- average yards gained per rush after first contact 

 

Link to post
Share on other sites
4 minutes ago, 96mnc said:

Just because he wasn't asked to catch passes in college didn't mean he was incapable of doing it

interesting and to my point.  If you go watch Howards film at the combine, he faired well catching the ball i thought.  Just bc he didn't do a lot of it in college doesn't mean he's not capable.  CLE wants to knock Howard for an ability Gordon was questioned on as well coming in(before the proday/combine) due to lack of use.  I think Howard can improve upon that part of his game as well

Link to post
Share on other sites
4 minutes ago, 96mnc said:

- average yards before first contact generated by the oline (I'd expect that Chicago got Howard deeper into the defense than SD did Gordon)

- average yards gained per rush after first contact 

 

I would expect Howard to lead Gordon in the first category, yes. Again, the Bears interior OL was better.    The second one, i have no idea but i'd be interested to see it.  Guys, i believe in Gordon in 17',  i ALSO think Howard is being sold short based off what my eye balls saw in Howards rookie year.  Maybe I'm wrong, maybe not.  Like i said, time will tell.  As of now i would not rank Howard ahead of Gordon but its not as far apart as i think some want it to be for FF purposes.  At least not for me.  Time will prove me right or wrong though. That is the best part

Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, BlakeP42 said:

I would expect Howard to lead Gordon in the first category, yes. Again, the Bears interior OL was better.    The second one, i have no idea but i'd be interested to see it.  Guys, i believe in Gordon in 17',  i ALSO think Howard is being sold short based off what my eye balls saw in Howards rookie year.  Maybe I'm wrong, maybe not.  Like i said, time will tell.  As of now i would not rank Howard ahead of Gordon but its not as far apart as i think some want it to be for FF purposes.  At least not for me.  Time will prove me right or wrong though. That is the best part

 

I'm in the camp that Howard is better than I thought coming into the league.   Does he have any special physical traits?  None that really stand out.  But he might have an exceptional trait that can't be quantified at a combine - vision.

 

It's early but I really don't think anyone is saying they are that far apart for FANTASY purposes.  I'd expect them to be within 10 spots adp wise next year. 

Link to post
Share on other sites
  • tonycpsu changed the title to Melvin Gordon 2017 Outlook

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.


×
×
  • Create New...