Jump to content
NBC Sports Edge Forums

Melvin Gordon 2017 Outlook


Recommended Posts

7 minutes ago, Bugs bunny said:

Curious why you think waaaaay safer?  Is it based on injury risk? Or production wise? Or week to week consistency?

 

We have seen Evans produce, he has the pedigree, will see a ton more single coverage now, winston will get better, less injury risk not being a RB, less bust potential (also not being a RB)

 

Then gordon, one year of being a stud, is he really that talented, ypc wasnt too efficient, then the rb injury/bust risks

 

evans floor is still 1000 yard season and 10 tds and thats worst case scenario and in the first round give me a guaranteed stud......cant win your draft in the first round......but.........you can lose it!

Link to post
Share on other sites
  • Replies 702
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

1 hour ago, Experienced Rookie said:

Where can you find those stats of yards before contact and such?

I know someone has posted it on these forums before. For the life of me I can't remember where

Link to post
Share on other sites
13 minutes ago, 77georgec said:

no doubt but considering the disgusting state of the rb's i would take Gordon over Evans at 6 in a 12t ppr

 

 

Good luck with that considering Gordon is considered to have a bottom 7 schedule for RB and he has one of the worst lines in the league.

Link to post
Share on other sites

If people don't want to draft Gordon, that's fine. And if someone would rather take someone like Evans over him, I can't say that's a bad thing. To me, where to draft him depends on who is there at your spot and your league settings. In my PPR auction league, he was the 12th highest priced player which is probably about right.

 

In terms of RBs though, the appeal seems pretty clear. He has the potential to be a workhorse back. Someone you don't have to worry is coming out at the goal line, or never catches a pass. For those who think he is going too high, what RBs would you put ahead of him that aren't obvious? Most agree that Johnson and Bell are by themselves. But then there is McCoy, Freeman, Howard, Ajai, Gurley, and maybe Murray. I think volume, success last year, and lack of competition put him near the top of that list. Probably after McCoy.

 

Is he going to make many highlight reels? Nope. But last time I checked, I don't get points for that. 

Link to post
Share on other sites

Holes were wide open but it was the Rams. I read that 70-75% of his carries last year went for 3 yards or less. We can remove his two worst games (which I did previously) and his ypc was a much more solid 4.2. However, take away his two best, and it's 3.5. I honestly think he's just an average talent. Great team situation, but the o-line + possible TD regression (had a TON of carries inside the 5/10 yard line last year) puts him on my overvalued list. I wouldn't be totally out on him in the pick 10-12 range just because of how bad rb is, but I am no longer considering him mid-1st as I was a month ago. 

Link to post
Share on other sites
29 minutes ago, Red Sox Nation said:

Holes were wide open but it was the Rams. I read that 70-75% of his carries last year went for 3 yards or less. We can remove his two worst games (which I did previously) and his ypc was a much more solid 4.2. However, take away his two best, and it's 3.5. I honestly think he's just an average talent. Great team situation, but the o-line + possible TD regression (had a TON of carries inside the 5/10 yard line last year) puts him on my overvalued list. I wouldn't be totally out on him in the pick 10-12 range just because of how bad rb is, but I am no longer considering him mid-1st as I was a month ago. 

 

So what happened in the last month to downgrade him?

Link to post
Share on other sites

I can't help thinking about getting burned by Leveon Bell after the lousy YPC he put up his first year. I passed on him in the second, he went right after me, and tore the league apart. I know he shed weight, etc... but it's possible Gordon has essentially been playing hurt for two years, and is as healthy as he's ever been. He's a risk for further injury, for sure, but Oliver can be had for a song towards the end of drafts, mitigating the concern somewhat (and I like Oliver). I'm just not as quick to rush to judgment over a poor YPC anymore.

Link to post
Share on other sites
21 minutes ago, Fierylady said:

I can't help thinking about getting burned by Leveon Bell after the lousy YPC he put up his first year. I passed on him in the second, he went right after me, and tore the league apart. I know he shed weight, etc... but it's possible Gordon has essentially been playing hurt for two years, and is as healthy as he's ever been. He's a risk for further injury, for sure, but Oliver can be had for a song towards the end of drafts, mitigating the concern somewhat (and I like Oliver). I'm just not as quick to rush to judgment over a poor YPC anymore.

He's played his entire career hurt? 

Link to post
Share on other sites
45 minutes ago, dashoe said:

 

 

subpar preseason play vs the excitement/hype of other rb's having good preseason/tc highlights

 

46 minutes ago, daethfromabove1979 said:

 

So what happened in the last month to downgrade him?

 

Lol no, pre-season has no affect here. I just heard/read more about how his "metrics" were actually worse last year than his rookie year. Also, he had a massive amount of runs inside the 5 yard line last year inflate his value. His o-line and run-game oriented coach is a boon for him. But more and more he seems like an average talent running behind a bottom 10 o-line. I expect the return of Allen and Benjamin, for however long that is, to open some running room but also take targets from him. So now we have an average talent, who can potentially lose receptions and td's. Just not that excited about him. Now, since he's a Badger, if he does great I'll be stoked. And if I'm picking 10-12 range, he's still under consideration. But in the 4-8 range, I'd rather take a wr then grab an rb later (contrary to most, I see a lot of good rb values later on).

Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Experienced Rookie said:

He's played his entire career hurt? 

Nicked up, I guess. He missed the first game of his career due to injury, then went down for good in December that year. Came back then went down in December again. I guess what I'm getting at is he hasn't looked like the guy I saw in college yet, and maybe I'm blaming it on the lingering effects of injuries (you know how it is with ACL's, often takes awhile to get back to "yourself"). It's possible he's not that guy from college, of course, but he doesn't even look the same, is what I'm getting at.

Link to post
Share on other sites
20 minutes ago, Fierylady said:

Nicked up, I guess. He missed the first game of his career due to injury, then went down for good in December that year. Came back then went down in December again. I guess what I'm getting at is he hasn't looked like the guy I saw in college yet, and maybe I'm blaming it on the lingering effects of injuries (you know how it is with ACL's, often takes awhile to get back to "yourself"). It's possible he's not that guy from college, of course, but he doesn't even look the same, is what I'm getting at.

I don't recall him having an ACL injury though

Link to post
Share on other sites

Snipped from Harris player almanac based on 2016 film review:

 

"Gordon is terrific on film. On inside runs, he's slippery and decisive, he cuts hard and effectively, and he'll knock you over if you don't have your feet under you. When he gets to the open field, he accelerates well and changes direction on the dead run. Even when his line is getting pushed around (which happened a lot in his first two years) often Gordon can dive and dart and get you something positive.

 

I'm betting you'll hear the argument that Gordon wasn't as talented as his numbers last year, but if you sniff around you'll probably discover that's mostly related to his career 3.7 YPC. The thing is, Gordon has been running behind one of the worst lines in the league. I don't need a statistic to tell me something my own eyes can see: this kid has had to work harder than most backs to make something from nothing. If folks want to tell you he's JAG, just nod and ignore them."

 

I'll add as a 2016 Gordon owner and frequent watcher that he's a decent receiver and if he continues to see a similar target share from last year, has a nice PPR floor. 

 

Link to post
Share on other sites

I took Gordon with the 4th pick, mostly because my gut said not to...Shady, JJ11 my gut screamed, but my gut is frequently wrong. The reasons are all the reasons mentioned here before I'm sure: Better line, No Woodhead, healthy and plentiful WR/TE's. And I watched the game vs the Rams and was frankly pleased with what I saw (in a pre-season game vs the Rams, I know). 

 

The funny thing about FF, is that we all think we know something, then the whistle blows, and things immediately start changing. Some things change a little, and some by a lot. I won't be shocked if Gordon ends up with more fantasy points in 2017. Maybe fewer rushing TD's (I feel that's almost a given), but more total yards and another receiving TD or 2, and he's still gonna pay as a RB1. 

Link to post
Share on other sites

The YPC stat is kind of skewed, for example Isaiah Crowell had a 4.8 YPC last year until you take away his one longest run of the season which was 85 yards, if you take that away it brings his YPC down to 3.8 a whole yard less so I'm not a huge believer in it I'm not saying its a horrible stat but if thats what people are basing their choice on they need to do more research on each RB

Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Violentwaves33 said:

The YPC stat is kind of skewed, for example Isaiah Crowell had a 4.8 YPC last year until you take away his one longest run of the season which was 85 yards, if you take that away it brings his YPC down to 3.8 a whole yard less so I'm not a huge believer in it I'm not saying its a horrible stat but if thats what people are basing their choice on they need to do more research on each RB

Also he had 17 carries inside the 5 yard line, those will shorten your YPC even tho we love them. For the sake of aruguement, take those away and he's 4+ YPC

Edited by pennstateugk
Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Violentwaves33 said:

The YPC stat is kind of skewed, for example Isaiah Crowell had a 4.8 YPC last year until you take away his one longest run of the season which was 85 yards, if you take that away it brings his YPC down to 3.8 a whole yard less so I'm not a huge believer in it I'm not saying its a horrible stat but if thats what people are basing their choice on they need to do more research on each RB

 

What?? Do you math?

 

Actual stats: 952/198 = 4.8

Revised stats: 867/197 = 4.4

Link to post
Share on other sites
  • tonycpsu changed the title to Melvin Gordon 2017 Outlook

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...

×
×
  • Create New...