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Dez Bryant 2017 Season Outlook


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Him and Dak really started to click in the second half of the season when he was finally healthy. 

 

His numbers from weeks 8-16, extrapolated to a full 16 games would have given him a line of 69/1143/14.

 

It's yet to be seen if Dak can carry this offense anything close to a prime Romo, where Dez put up a sick 88/1320/16 line despite DeMarco touching the ball ~450 times in 2014. But his pace in the second half of the season wasn't too far off of that in another run heavy Cowboy attack.

 

What do you guys think about his 2017 outlook?

 

 

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14 minutes ago, Ffguy0087 said:

Him and Dak really started to click in the second half of the season when he was finally healthy. 

 

His numbers from weeks 8-16, extrapolated to a full 16 games would have given him a line of 69/1143/14.

 

It's yet to be seen if Dak can carry this offense anything close to a prime Romo, where Dez put up a sick 88/1320/16 line despite DeMarco touching the ball ~450 times in 2014. But his pace in the second half of the season wasn't too far off of that in another run heavy Cowboy attack.

 

What do you guys think about his 2017 outlook?

 

 

Short of regression from Dak, easy top 10 WR.  The offense has the opportunities for both Zeke and Dak to shine.  

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1 hour ago, Ffguy0087 said:

Him and Dak really started to click in the second half of the season when he was finally healthy. 

 

His numbers from weeks 8-16, extrapolated to a full 16 games would have given him a line of 69/1143/14.

 

It's yet to be seen if Dak can carry this offense anything close to a prime Romo, where Dez put up a sick 88/1320/16 line despite DeMarco touching the ball ~450 times in 2014. But his pace in the second half of the season wasn't too far off of that in another run heavy Cowboy attack.

 

What do you guys think about his 2017 outlook?

 

 

 

Not sold at all on him. I'm betting he won't finish as a top-24 WR, just like he hasn't since 2014. Whether it's lower extremity injuries, decreased targets, and/or no Romo, there are too many red flags to justify where he will likely be drafted. 

 

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85 / 1200+ / 12  Which should be top ten production. Dak has the stronger arm to get deep whereas Romo's deep ball understandably was tied to his back struggles.Many a late arriving pass that may still be caught but didn't end up as big a play. Not to mention the ones that were missed all together.

 

  Wish Vegas had a line on Dez not making the top 24 WR's ... I'd be loading up on that :-)

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1 hour ago, joshua18 said:

 

Not sold at all on him. I'm betting he won't finish as a top-24 WR, just like he hasn't since 2014. Whether it's lower extremity injuries, decreased targets, and/or no Romo, there are too many red flags to justify where he will likely be drafted. 

 

I should have noted in the OP that I play in standard scoring leagues. So his dip in projected receptions didn't stick out to me as much as the fact that his extrapolated yardage and TD totals were within shouting distance of his great 2014 season. And considering he was coming off an injury, and playing with a rookie QB, it seemed encouraging for future production.

 

You bring up legitimate concerns tho. Health is a big one considering his last two seasons have been hindered by injuries. And as I mentioned in the OP, we will still have to see if Dak can run an offense capable of letting Dez produce like when he had Romo. It's most certianly a good start for the Dak-Dez connection though based off the second half of this year.

 

As far as targets go, in the week 8-16 games he had 72. Multiply that out to a full season that's 127. Or about a dozen or so short of what he had to work with in his 2012 and 2014 seasons. Not awful all things considered.

 

That said, all these numbers are projections based off the few games he actually did play, much different and less reliable than concrete numbers that he actually produced. He is what he is tho. A fairly low volume receiver compared to the elite target hogs, always has been, and his production is largely dependant on finding the end zone at a high rate. But unless this offense takes a big step back, you have to imagine he will have plenty of opportunities to do just that.

 

Plenty of red flags with injuries, target share, and QB play, which are all reasonable things to consider. But I think I would be hard pressed to name 10 guys who I think will outscore Dez next year, let alone 24. With health, I think I he finishes somewhere in the 5-10 range at worst.

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IMO, it really is a question of if he gets hurt. He's had injuries knock him out, but it hasn't been anything really persistent.  He's only had one soft tissue injury causing him to miss time that I can find.  So it comes down to if he breaks a bone. The only one he's broken more than once (once again, that I can find) is the same foot within the same season (2015), possibly because he rushed back. 

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12 minutes ago, psygolf said:

I hope he doesn't slip to a rd where I cannot pass up on drafting him.

That just screams value pick to me.  You have to take players when they are at a value where you "cannot" pass them up.  

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43 minutes ago, jbshaw said:

That just screams value pick to me.  You have to take players when they are at a value where you "cannot" pass them up.  

That almost happened to me last year with Jordy.  He went one pick ahead of me in the mid-2nd round.  

I wasn't high on Jordy at all "but couldn't pass him up" if he fell to me.  Wish he had.

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1 hour ago, theSPANKER said:

That almost happened to me last year with Jordy.  He went one pick ahead of me in the mid-2nd round.  

I wasn't high on Jordy at all "but couldn't pass him up" if he fell to me.  Wish he had.

 

Jordy > Dez in a vacuum (yes I said it). And that's before considering their current QBs. 

 

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17 minutes ago, joshua18 said:

 

Jordy > Dez in a vacuum (yes I said it). And that's before considering their current QBs. 

 

Slightly different types of receivers IMO, but I don't have a problem with that.  Dez is younger, and obviously checks my fandom box, but blinders off, I'd prefer Jordy in fantasy for at least one more year. 

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5 hours ago, joshua18 said:

 

Jordy > Dez in a vacuum (yes I said it). And that's before considering their current QBs. 

 

Fun to say, impossible to prove.

 

Healthy Dez + healthy Rodgers would break all GB records at the very least.

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6 hours ago, psygolf said:

Fun to say, impossible to prove.

 

Healthy Dez + healthy Rodgers would break all GB records at the very least.

 

This. 

 

At this point in their careers Dez is the better talent in a vacuum.  Still can stretch the field vertically.  Jordy is best suited for the slot st this point unless he gets back the extra gear he lost to injury.

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23 minutes ago, 96mnc said:

 

This. 

 

At this point in their careers Dez is the better talent in a vacuum.  Still can stretch the field vertically.  Jordy is best suited for the slot st this point unless he gets back the extra gear he lost to injury.

One is the "Alpha-Male"...simple.

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1 hour ago, mrblonde1984 said:

I like Jordy, but it's hard to ignore the emergence of Adams as a go-to WR for Rodgers. Not go mention Cobb. If I were forced to choose right now, I'd take the younger WR with less around him to compete for targets.

 

Before I make any definitive comments on Jordy I want to see if that deep vertical speed has returned in pre-season games and how he's going to be deployed.  If that deep speed is back and he's capable of 40 and 50 yard td strikes again then things change significantly.

 

Point noted about the competition for targets with Adams emergence.

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6 hours ago, mrblonde1984 said:

I like Jordy, but it's hard to ignore the emergence of Adams as a go-to WR for Rodgers. Not go mention Cobb. If I were forced to choose right now, I'd take the younger WR with less around him to compete for targets.

I'd still draft Jordy over Dez, because Rodgers makes the man.  

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8 hours ago, 96mnc said:

 

This. 

 

At this point in their careers Dez is the better talent in a vacuum.  Still can stretch the field vertically.  Jordy is best suited for the slot st this point unless he gets back the extra gear he lost to injury.

 

Disagree. Jordy has better hands, is a far better route runner and is faster than Dez (both by 40 time and on-field speed; plus DBs underestimate him bc he's white). Jordy is also an elite RZ threat, but not quite as elite as Dez. Overall they're close, but Jordy is better. 

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49 minutes ago, joshua18 said:

 

Disagree. Jordy has better hands, is a far better route runner and is faster than Dez (both by 40 time and on-field speed; plus DBs underestimate him bc he's white). Jordy is also an elite RZ threat, but not quite as elite as Dez. Overall they're close, but Jordy is better. 

 

Jordy did not play as fast as dez did last year.   You're using a 40 time from 10 years and an acl tear ago for Jordy.  Yards of separation at catch?   Yards per catch?

 

As for better hands...what were their drop rates last year?   Contested catch rates?

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1 hour ago, joshua18 said:

 

Disagree. Jordy has better hands, is a far better route runner and is faster than Dez (both by 40 time and on-field speed; plus DBs underestimate him bc he's white). Jordy is also an elite RZ threat, but not quite as elite as Dez. Overall they're close, but Jordy is better. 

Jordy is passive-aggressive, a different flavor, but by no means better.

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