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Dez Bryant 2017 Season Outlook


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2 hours ago, Impreza178 said:

That seems early.    Above AJG, Evans, and the tier 2 rbs?  I like Dez but late second/early third is the right spot.  

 

Depends on format for Dez vs the RBs but I'd take Dez over AJG without hesitation.

 

Evans should be ahead of both though. 

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@FFCollusion can't thank you enough for your well thought out posts and ability to see both sides of the argument. It's fun to debate players with folks who don't instantly get butthurt(not saying people on this thread are).  In fairness to your points, at his ADP he is going right around Howard, Ajayi, Gronk & Cooper what guy in that list doesn't have a decent amount of risk associated with them? Sure you may like some of those names more than Dez but they all have question marks surrounding them. It is crazy to think that Dez's numbers over 16 games would be good for WR12 even with those 4 bad starts.

 

This sounds crazy but here's another question that I think is at the heart of this thread.  Say Player A finishes with 180 fantasy points and has 9 games of 20 points and 7 games with 0. Player B finishes with scores 176 points and scores 11 points in all 16 games. Which Player would you rather have? Player A scores more overall points and 9 of the 16 games does better than Player B but can you live with the 7 games Player A gets you nothing?

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8 minutes ago, Tcann66 said:

@FFCollusion can't thank you enough for your well thought out posts and ability to see both sides of the argument. It's fun to debate players with folks who don't instantly get butthurt(not saying people on this thread are).  In fairness to your points, at his ADP he is going right around Howard, Ajayi, Gronk & Cooper what guy in that list doesn't have a decent amount of risk associated with them? Sure you may like some of those names more than Dez but they all have question marks surrounding them. It is crazy to think that Dez's numbers over 16 games would be good for WR12 even with those 4 bad starts.

 

This sounds crazy but here's another question that I think is at the heart of this thread.  Say Player A finishes with 180 fantasy points and has 9 games of 20 points and 7 games with 0. Player B finishes with scores 176 points and scores 11 points in all 16 games. Which Player would you rather have? Player A scores more overall points and 9 of the 16 games does better than Player B but can you live with the 7 games Player A gets you nothing?

 

There's a ton of variance from week to week in football, much of it matchup generated.  I personally tend not to focus much on high variability from week to week and focus more on year end projected targets.

 

I think a stronger argument against Dez would be the expected (right now at least) increase in the quality of the opposing secondaries on the schedule.

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8 minutes ago, 96mnc said:

 

There's a ton of variance from week to week in football, much of it matchup generated.  I personally tend not to focus much on high variability from week to week and focus more on year end projected targets.

 

I think a stronger argument against Dez would be the expected (right now at least) increase in the quality of the opposing secondaries on the schedule.

That's true it is matchup related but do we always know when its a good/bad matchup beforehand or looking back is it more obivous? For example would we have guessed that Dez had 1 catch for 19 yards against the Browns(20th pass defense last year) or in his 2 games combined against the Giants(23 in pass defense last year) have 2 catches for 18 yards?

 

High variability is more of a tiebreaker than a ranking indicator for me. A guy like Landry may be more consistent week in and week out than Dez but doesn't have near the upside as Dez. If someone who is in Dez's WR Tier is more consistent than Dez I would likely lean toward the other guy. 

 

 

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1 hour ago, Impreza178 said:

Well @FFCollusion, I certainly agree.   Dez, MT, TY, Cooks are all close.   That does not change the fact that NONE are going first round unless every drafter ignores every rb not named Bell, DJ, Zeke.   And values Dez over AJG, Evans, Jordy and the big 3.    Not likely.   Dez's value is not late first/ early second.   

 

I frankly don't use ADP as a ranking format.  I don't care if Dez's ADP is 1st overall, or he's Mr. Irrelevant, is has zero effect on where I rank him as a fantasy player, and zero effect on my projections of him for 2017.  So frankly, I'm sorry, but I just don't care whether you think his ADP is 1st, 2nd, or 3rd round.

 

I personally can not list you 12 names I'd rather have than Dez Bryant next year in PPR scoring.  By default that makes him a 1st rounder in my rankings.  You can call me an idiot if you like, but I don't know what to tell you, it's just how I've ranked the players on my own opinion, and how it came out.  You, nor the rankers on Yahoo, or ESPN, or even the general population who factor into FFC's ADP, don't get to tell me what Dez Bryant's 'value' is.  Value is a relatively simple term, in obtaining something for a price relative to (in this case) their production.  So if my personal belief (whether right or wrong pre-season) is that Dez is a top 5 WR, then I'm sorry, he absolutely IS a value in the late 1st, early 2nd in my opinion.

 

My opinion is not law, and I don't expect anyone to blindly accept my parameters of value.

If you think Dez is not a top 12 WR, then you are correct, that his value is not late first early second.

I can't, nor will I, tell you that you are wrong.  I can disagree with your projections and tell you why I think you're too low on him, but your value is 100% dependent on your projections of a player.  My projections say Dez is a value in the early 2nd, and 'fairly priced' in the late 1st.  Yours obviously say he's not, and that's perfectly fine.  Again, I don't have to agree with your standpoint, to understand and respect it.

 

17 minutes ago, Tcann66 said:

@FFCollusion can't thank you enough for your well thought out posts and ability to see both sides of the argument. It's fun to debate players with folks who don't instantly get butthurt(not saying people on this thread are).  In fairness to your points, at his ADP he is going right around Howard, Ajayi, Gronk & Cooper what guy in that list doesn't have a decent amount of risk associated with them? Sure you may like some of those names more than Dez but they all have question marks surrounding them. It is crazy to think that Dez's numbers over 16 games would be good for WR12 even with those 4 bad starts.

 

This sounds crazy but here's another question that I think is at the heart of this thread.  Say Player A finishes with 180 fantasy points and has 9 games of 20 points and 7 games with 0. Player B finishes with scores 176 points and scores 11 points in all 16 games. Which Player would you rather have? Player A scores more overall points and 9 of the 16 games does better than Player B but can you live with the 7 games Player A gets you nothing?

 

This applies to both, I do not follow group think, I independently create nearly all of my data, and my own rankings.  I don't want to derail the thread, but I can tell you right now, I have Gronk ranked higher than Dez, meaning Gronk is also a 1st rounder to me.  That may blow some people's mind, and a few others will expect it from me.  I am not touching Howard, Melvin Gordon, or Jordy in the first round.  I'm not touching M.Thomas, Amari, Gurley, or Fournette in the 2nd round.  I know I am in the minority, but these are the types of things that essentially clarify why I have no issues with placing Dez's value in the first round.  Like I said previously, if you were guaranteed 16 games of Dez, he would be in the same tier as AJ Green.  No one hesitates to draft him in the 1st round, and AJ Green missed twice as many games as Dez did due to injury.  Over the last 3 years both of these guys have missed 10 games each.  When on the field for 16 games, both are legit elite WR options.  Recency bias, while justified given the fear of injury, is the only reason people want to discredit Dez.  I understand that, but as I've already stated... injury risk is why his ADP is currently 8 spots lower than AJ Green.  It's already baked in for people who are trying to predict injuries.

 

Your 2nd question has been covered here.  It's purely opinion.  Some people prefer a consistent 15 points every week from <position/number> while some prefer the 10/20 alternation.  There is no right or wrong, it's just what you like.  Nothing wrong with that, but just because it's what you like, doesn't mean it has to be what everyone likes, and people who would rather have the other outcome aren't inherently wrong.

 

25 minutes ago, 96mnc said:

I think a stronger argument against Dez would be the expected (right now at least) increase in the quality of the opposing secondaries on the schedule.

 

If that's your argument, I guess I would understand.  My counter would be rather simple though.  Please show me how these alleged secondaries effected Dez Bryant in 2012, 2013, and 2014.  If they weren't a concern for his production then, why would it now suddenly hold water?  Dez is an elite talent, like AJG, OBJ, JJ, AB, etc.  I don't care how tough the matchup, schedules do not alter the tier I rank you in, but they can effect your ranking within a tier.

 

Show me how these alleged secondaries effected last years Elites.  List them, and show me how comparable talents (AB/JJ/OBJ/AJG/Evans/Jordy) produced against them last year.  That would be a valid argument I could respect, if the data were there to back it up.  Show me Dez's history against top 10 corners in the league, like was warned last year for Allen Robinson.

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@FFCollusion

 

thats super useful thanks.   And as soon as our drafts are run on ffcollusion.com,  your sole opinion is all that matters.  No one drafts in a vacuum,  but feel free to ignore the most valuable insight on your opponents strategic plans that there is- ADP.   Written right there on a scrolling list!!   But you are far too clever so preach on... 

 

 

 

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1 hour ago, 96mnc said:

 

There's a ton of variance from week to week in football, much of it matchup generated.  I personally tend not to focus much on high variability from week to week and focus more on year end projected targets.

 

I think a stronger argument against Dez would be the expected (right now at least) increase in the quality of the opposing secondaries on the schedule.

 

Yep, a valuable piece of the puzzle.  id love to hear your breakdown on this issue

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8 minutes ago, Impreza178 said:

 

Yep, a valuable piece of the puzzle.  id love to hear your breakdown on this issue

 

I haven't looked at any numbers at all yet Prez.  I just know that the AFC west secondaries are a huge upgrade over last year's AFC North.

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4 minutes ago, 96mnc said:

 

I haven't looked at any numbers at all yet Prez.  I just know that the AFC west secondaries are a huge upgrade over last year's AFC North.

Indeed.  Look forward to your breakdown then.    I just started watching player film yesterday.  First up is Howard.    Far more versatile than I thought with sneaky quicks.    We'll have to discuss is elsewhere 

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27 minutes ago, FFCollusion said:

 

I frankly don't use ADP as a ranking format.  I don't care if Dez's ADP is 1st overall, or he's Mr. Irrelevant, is has zero effect on where I rank him as a fantasy player, and zero effect on my projections of him for 2017.  So frankly, I'm sorry, but I just don't care whether you think his ADP is 1st, 2nd, or 3rd round.

 

I personally can not list you 12 names I'd rather have than Dez Bryant next year in PPR scoring.  By default that makes him a 1st rounder in my rankings.  You can call me an idiot if you like, but I don't know what to tell you, it's just how I've ranked the players on my own opinion, and how it came out.  You, nor the rankers on Yahoo, or ESPN, or even the general population who factor into FFC's ADP, don't get to tell me what Dez Bryant's 'value' is.  Value is a relatively simple term, in obtaining something for a price relative to (in this case) their production.  So if my personal belief (whether right or wrong pre-season) is that Dez is a top 5 WR, then I'm sorry, he absolutely IS a value in the late 1st, early 2nd in my opinion.

 

My opinion is not law, and I don't expect anyone to blindly accept my parameters of value.

If you think Dez is not a top 12 WR, then you are correct, that his value is not late first early second.

I can't, nor will I, tell you that you are wrong.  I can disagree with your projections and tell you why I think you're too low on him, but your value is 100% dependent on your projections of a player.  My projections say Dez is a value in the early 2nd, and 'fairly priced' in the late 1st.  Yours obviously say he's not, and that's perfectly fine.  Again, I don't have to agree with your standpoint, to understand and respect it.

 

 

This applies to both, I do not follow group think, I independently create nearly all of my data, and my own rankings.  I don't want to derail the thread, but I can tell you right now, I have Gronk ranked higher than Dez, meaning Gronk is also a 1st rounder to me.  That may blow some people's mind, and a few others will expect it from me.  I am not touching Howard, Melvin Gordon, or Jordy in the first round.  I'm not touching M.Thomas, Amari, Gurley, or Fournette in the 2nd round.  I know I am in the minority, but these are the types of things that essentially clarify why I have no issues with placing Dez's value in the first round.  Like I said previously, if you were guaranteed 16 games of Dez, he would be in the same tier as AJ Green.  No one hesitates to draft him in the 1st round, and AJ Green missed twice as many games as Dez did due to injury.  Over the last 3 years both of these guys have missed 10 games each.  When on the field for 16 games, both are legit elite WR options.  Recency bias, while justified given the fear of injury, is the only reason people want to discredit Dez.  I understand that, but as I've already stated... injury risk is why his ADP is currently 8 spots lower than AJ Green.  It's already baked in for people who are trying to predict injuries.

 

Your 2nd question has been covered here.  It's purely opinion.  Some people prefer a consistent 15 points every week from <position/number> while some prefer the 10/20 alternation.  There is no right or wrong, it's just what you like.  Nothing wrong with that, but just because it's what you like, doesn't mean it has to be what everyone likes, and people who would rather have the other outcome aren't inherently wrong.

 

 

If that's your argument, I guess I would understand.  My counter would be rather simple though.  Please show me how these alleged secondaries effected Dez Bryant in 2012, 2013, and 2014.  If they weren't a concern for his production then, why would it now suddenly hold water?  Dez is an elite talent, like AJG, OBJ, JJ, AB, etc.  I don't care how tough the matchup, schedules do not alter the tier I rank you in, but they can effect your ranking within a tier.

 

Show me how these alleged secondaries effected last years Elites.  List them, and show me how comparable talents (AB/JJ/OBJ/AJG/Evans/Jordy) produced against them last year.  That would be a valid argument I could respect, if the data were there to back it up.  Show me Dez's history against top 10 corners in the league, like was warned last year for Allen Robinson.

 

I haven't looked at any detailed data but I know the AFC west secondaries are a huge upgrade over the AFC North.  

 

As for Dez in particular, Dez with gunslinger and underrated Romo at QB is a different animal than Dak.  Will Dak force it to Dez in tight coverage?  Can he (he couldn't vs NYG)?   The secondary affects the QB as much as the WR.  

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4 hours ago, Tcann66 said:

That's true it is matchup related but do we always know when its a good/bad matchup beforehand or looking back is it more obivous? For example would we have guessed that Dez had 1 catch for 19 yards against the Browns(20th pass defense last year) or in his 2 games combined against the Giants(23 in pass defense last year) have 2 catches for 18 yards?

 

High variability is more of a tiebreaker than a ranking indicator for me. A guy like Landry may be more consistent week in and week out than Dez but doesn't have near the upside as Dez. If someone who is in Dez's WR Tier is more consistent than Dez I would likely lean toward the other guy. 

 

 

 

With regards to the Browns matchup. Joe Haden and Dallas blowing out the Browns had a lot to do with the one catch. It was somewhat predictable.

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59 minutes ago, Evincar said:

 

With regards to the Browns matchup. Joe Haden and Dallas blowing out the Browns had a lot to do with the one catch. It was somewhat predictable.

 

This.   Plus Dallas was running it down their throat.  And when they weren't the Browns were leaving Witten wide open. 

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6 hours ago, Evincar said:

 

With regards to the Browns matchup. Joe Haden and Dallas blowing out the Browns had a lot to do with the one catch. It was somewhat predictable.

 

5 hours ago, 96mnc said:

 

This.   Plus Dallas was running it down their throat.  And when they weren't the Browns were leaving Witten wide open. 

 I agree there was some reason to believe Dez would not have a WR1 week but coming off his first week back against Phillly where he went 4 for 113 and TD I believe most sites had him as a WR1 for the Browns Matchup. If y'all saw the writing on the wall and knew he would have a off week your better men than I. 

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13 hours ago, Chwf3rd said:

 

It's completely reasonable to have him late 1st/early 2nd if you don't want to draft one of Gordon/Murray/Ajayi/Howard in the late 1st/early 2nd. That RB cluster is terrifying.  You would just need to have the big 3 RBs + Shady/Freeman + AB/Julio/OBJ/AJG/Evans/Jordy/TY ahead of him and Dez is at #13 overall.

 

It's not unreasonable at all to have that aforementioned RB cluster and MThomas/Cooper/Cooks behind Dez. If you have Dez as #13 overall, the ADP won't change where you'll draft him because there's no chance of him falling back to you in the 3rd.

 

I dont and probably never will have the stats but i bet 90% of fantasy drafts will have Dez at 2.7 or later.

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49 minutes ago, DerrickHenrysCleats said:

 

I dont and probably never will have the stats but i bet 90% of fantasy drafts will have Dez at 2.7 or later.

 

How is that helpful to the discussion about his outlook?

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28 minutes ago, Chwf3rd said:

 

How is that helpful to the discussion about his outlook?

 

It helps show people that drafting dez in the first or early second round would be in the minority while the vast majority will pass until late 2nd early third.

 

Its an outlook on where to rank him.

 

If you are in the minority that is fine, just your preference.

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1 hour ago, DerrickHenrysCleats said:

 

It helps show people that drafting dez in the first or early second round would be in the minority while the vast majority will pass until late 2nd early third.

 

Its an outlook on where to rank him.

 

If you are in the minority that is fine, just your preference.

 

So your main arguments against him are injuries, his FF playoff performance, and his ADP?

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11. Dez Bryant, DAL
2017 Projection: 82 receptions / 1230 yards / 9 touchdowns (259 points)
Outlook: Bryant returns to an offense that features a great young quarterback in Dak Prescott and the offensive Rookie of the Year in Zeke Elliott. Still in his prime in his late twenties, Bryant offers huge upside as a receiver who can simply take over a game. With Jason Witten another year older and no real threat at the position other than Bryant, if he can stay healthy for the entire year, he is going to be a great player and target hog. A dominant force on a great young team, Bryant has a chance to outscore these projections. Health, as always, is the wild card. There are few players in the NFL better than Dez at going up and getting the football. Don't let injuries over the past two years distract you from what Dez still is: a dominant player.

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2 hours ago, DerrickHenrysCleats said:

 

It helps show people that drafting dez in the first or early second round would be in the minority while the vast majority will pass until late 2nd early third.

 

Its an outlook on where to rank him.

 

If you are in the minority that is fine, just your preference.

 

 

so your unproven statement is supposed to help people see that?

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31 minutes ago, Chwf3rd said:

 

So your main arguments against him are injuries, his FF playoff performance, and his ADP?

 

What other arguments are there? I have said he was as talented as the other WR1's but his useage in games is uncertain. His injuries have kept him under 1,000 yards the past 2 years, and he hardly gets over 6 receptions a game, at least last year. So if he does not convert a few big plays in a game then he could throw up a dud or 3 or 4.

 

Just to be clear, Dez has talent equal to the best WR in football but useage and injury history dictate that i would rather have guys like Ajayi or Howard who will touch the ball over 300 times in a season over someone like Dez who would be lucky to get 80 touches. I can find comparable WRs in the later rounds that can give me close to if not greater production than Dez could.

 

Jamison Crowder for example will have more receptions and more yards than Dez and Dez might beat him in TDs and even that is a big maybe and you can get crowder in round 5 or 6

 

What RB are you getting in round 5 or 6 that would come close to the production ajayi or howard will give you?

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10 minutes ago, Rizzle630 said:

 

 

so your unproven statement is supposed to help people see that?

 

It's all unproven at this point...it's the future.     I find it helpful to realize you can usually snag one of the second tier WRs in the mid 3rd.   Not the case with second tier rbs.    But I can also respect reaching for a player u think is under projected.   No guarantee u have a shot at Dez in particular in the third.  

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4 minutes ago, DerrickHenrysCleats said:

Jamison Crowder for example will have more receptions and more yards than Dez a

you know dang well Crowder isn't even in the same area code in yards if both these guys play a full FF slate.  I can agree with a decent amount of your concerns regarding Dez use at times, but that is also a good portion of the nature of the WR position across the game.  There isn't a WR in the game that won't lay a clunker at some point, but lets not reach too far across the table here with comps to a guy like Crowder, no matter the value you may think he may have, in whatever round.  I can see the reception argument for Crowder, but it stops there, IMO

 

My opinion is, we need to see Dez play a full set of FF games and if he does, he's proven to reward FF owners.  We can talk all we want about Romo not being his QB, but i would just take a look at both the numbers for ROmo and Dez in 2014.  Esp take a look at ROmo's attempts.  Bottom line, Dez needs to play 16 games and he needs 130 - 140 targets.  This is no doubt a run first team, so there is no question Dez will have a few games here and there where the run game will dominate and Dez will fall by the way side. There will also be games where he's going to be streaking wide open down the field and dominating inside the red zone.  He is a premiere talent on a high end offense that will move the ball well in 17'.  I don't worry about the schedule, i don't worry about Dak, yadadada, i worry about Dez's health.  Its as simple as that.

Healthy Dez = produces.

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15 minutes ago, DerrickHenrysCleats said:

 

What other arguments are there? I have said he was as talented as the other WR1's but his useage in games is uncertain. His injuries have kept him under 1,000 yards the past 2 years, and he hardly gets over 6 receptions a game, at least last year. So if he does not convert a few big plays in a game then he could throw up a dud or 3 or 4.

 

Just to be clear, Dez has talent equal to the best WR in football but useage and injury history dictate that i would rather have guys like Ajayi or Howard who will touch the ball over 300 times in a season over someone like Dez who would be lucky to get 80 touches. I can find comparable WRs in the later rounds that can give me close to if not greater production than Dez could.

 

Jamison Crowder for example will have more receptions and more yards than Dez and Dez might beat him in TDs and even that is a big maybe and you can get crowder in round 5 or 6

 

What RB are you getting in round 5 or 6 that would come close to the production ajayi or howard will give you?

 

Ugh. Saying you would rather take one of the RBs in round 2 is perfectly reasonable but that was not your main point and is you pivoting. You're trying to make the inconsistency argument again but I showed you earlier how he was the 10th most consistent WR in fantasy last year. You're right that in PPR he should be downgraded. When Dez played last year he was a WR1, just as he always is when healthy. Why is it relevant how Crowder performs? If you think Crowder is going to be that good then why not draft both of them? Keep your argument to Dez.

 

if you're so worried about injuries then have you also downgraded Gronk and Watkins as well?

 

 

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45 minutes ago, Chwf3rd said:

 

Ugh. Saying you would rather take one of the RBs in round 2 is perfectly reasonable but that was not your main point and is you pivoting. You're trying to make the inconsistency argument again but I showed you earlier how he was the 10th most consistent WR in fantasy last year. You're right that in PPR he should be downgraded. When Dez played last year he was a WR1, just as he always is when healthy. Why is it relevant how Crowder performs? If you think Crowder is going to be that good then why not draft both of them? Keep your argument to Dez.

 

if you're so worried about injuries then have you also downgraded Gronk and Watkins as well?

 

 

 

The entire discussion for me has been about Dez's draft position. 

 

I have argued against drafting dez before the late 2nd round.

 

You have argued about drafting him late 1st and early 2nd, even over ajayi and howard.

 

I dont know if you got confused after several pages of conversation but all i did was illustrate reasons i would not take dez until tge late 2nd round.

 

And the gap between Dez and Crowder is not as great as the gap between ajayi or howars and a 5th or 6th round RB.

 

Gronk and watkins are DND for me, unless Gronk returns to pre injury Gronk then i can find serviceable TEs to fill in versus reaching for Gronk in round 3 or however early you have to jump to get him.

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