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Dez Bryant 2017 Season Outlook


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1 hour ago, Proteus said:

His schedule is tragic.

Decoy Bryant also is one of the more affected WRs when it comes to disappearing against tough corners. And his schedule is a murderers row of tough corners.

 

Already disproved this notion. 

 

Has beat up Vonte Davis, Xavier Rhodes, Josh Norman, Richard Sherman, Trumaine Johnson and Janoris Jenkins just to name a few at some point in his career. 

 

 

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Fact is, from week 10 until the end of the season, Dez was the #5 WR in PPR. 

 

Pass on him if you want, but I've managed to trade turds for him in every league I'm in. 

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7 hours ago, PolarBear said:

 

Already disproved this notion. 

 

Has beat up Vonte Davis, Xavier Rhodes, Josh Norman, Richard Sherman, Trumaine Johnson and Janoris Jenkins just to name a few at some point in his career. 

 

 

 

No he hasn't. Scott Barrett did an exhaustive analysis of this issue. Dez gets shut down by top CBs. His combined 2 catches in his 2 games vs Janoris Jenkins last year are just one example. He also destroys weak CBs - like those in GB. 

 

 

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3 hours ago, JD88 said:

Fact is, from week 10 until the end of the season, Dez was the #5 WR in PPR. 

 

Pass on him if you want, but I've managed to trade turds for him in every league I'm in. 

 

And Theilen was #6 over that same timespan (wks 10-16 in PPR). Do you want to spend a 2nd rd pick on him, too?

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1 hour ago, joshua18 said:

And Theilen was #6 over that same timespan (wks 10-16 in PPR). Do you want to spend a 2nd rd pick on him, too?

 

If he had a 3 year track record of being a top 5 WR, and the back half of 2016 was just the 4th, not 1st time, he's paced those numbers... Yes.

 

That's before we even discuss the fact that 42% of Theilen's fantasy points in that time frame, came from a single week.

His 12/202/2 Week 16 is an obvious outlier.  Especially considering he went 0/0/0 in week 15 and 1/7/0 in week 17.

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5 hours ago, joshua18 said:

 

And Theilen was #6 over that same timespan (wks 10-16 in PPR). Do you want to spend a 2nd rd pick on him, too?

Theilen has a history of being a top 5 WR?

 

No?

 

So, no.

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5 hours ago, joshua18 said:

 

No he hasn't. Scott Barrett did an exhaustive analysis of this issue. Dez gets shut down by top CBs. His combined 2 catches in his 2 games vs Janoris Jenkins last year are just one example. He also destroys weak CBs - like those in GB. 

 

 

 

He has - from his reasonably last two healthy seasons in 2014 and 2016- 

 

2014 - IND - Vontae Davis - 5 catches, 73 yards, 1 TD. 

2014 - STL - Janoris Jenkins/Trumaine johnson - 6 receptions 89 yards and 1 TD

2014 - SEA - Richard Sherman - 4 receptions, 63 yards - not a great game but far from "shutdown"

2016 - WAS - Josh Norman - 2 games for a total of 12 catches, 174 yards

2016 - DET - Darius Slay - 4 receptions, 70 yards and 2 TD's

2016 - MIN - Xavier Rhodes - 4 receptions, 86 yards and 1 TD

 

He had 2 bad games against Janoris Jenkins (an elite NYG defense) in 2016 and a bad game against Patrick Peterson in 2014.  Where is this trend? 

 

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16 hours ago, Proteus said:

His schedule is tragic.

Decoy Bryant also is one of the more affected WRs when it comes to disappearing against tough corners. And his schedule is a murderers row of tough corners.

 

Zeke being suspended will help a lot. His schedule sucks but Im more worried about his health than that.

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1 hour ago, PolarBear said:

 

He has - from his reasonably last two healthy seasons in 2014 and 2016- 

 

2014 - IND - Vontae Davis - 5 catches, 73 yards, 1 TD. 

2014 - STL - Janoris Jenkins/Trumaine johnson - 6 receptions 89 yards and 1 TD

2014 - SEA - Richard Sherman - 4 receptions, 63 yards - not a great game but far from "shutdown"

2016 - WAS - Josh Norman - 2 games for a total of 12 catches, 174 yards

2016 - DET - Darius Slay - 4 receptions, 70 yards and 2 TD's

2016 - MIN - Xavier Rhodes - 4 receptions, 86 yards and 1 TD

 

He had 2 bad games against Janoris Jenkins (an elite NYG defense) in 2016 and a bad game against Patrick Peterson in 2014.  Where is this trend? 

 

 

 

Here is the Barrett data:

 

https://www.profootballfocus.com/news/metrics-that-matter-the-cb-sensitive-dez-bryant/

 

Reach your own conclusions. 

 

 

 

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6 hours ago, joshua18 said:

 

 

Here is the Barrett data:

 

https://www.profootballfocus.com/news/metrics-that-matter-the-cb-sensitive-dez-bryant/

 

Reach your own conclusions. 

 

 

 

 

1. This is PPR data so that should be clarified. Dez is much more valuable in standard leagues. 

2. This data just completely leaves out 2 of his 3 best seasons and includes injury riddled ones. 

 

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7 hours ago, PolarBear said:

 

1. This is PPR data so that should be clarified. Dez is much more valuable in standard leagues. 

2. This data just completely leaves out 2 of his 3 best seasons and includes injury riddled ones. 

 

 

Says a lot that most of his best seasons happened before 2014...and with a different QB. 

 

This is 2017

 

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1 hour ago, joshua18 said:

 

And poor play. The Dez of 2012-2014 isn't coming back. The sooner people accept that, the less overrated he will be. 

 

Why not?  He's 28 years old.  Touchdown machine.  He looked pretty good in the playoffs last year against the Packers, no?

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18 minutes ago, JoeJoe88 said:

Why not?  He's 28 years old.  Touchdown machine.  He looked pretty good in the playoffs last year against the Packers, no?

 

The Packers were a CFL-level defense. We all know that. 

 

Not a coincidence Dez has been dominated by elite CBs the past 3 seasons -- and he'll face them plenty this season (Jenkins x2, Norman x2, Peterson, Peters, Sherman, Talib, Verrett, Trufant, etc.).

 

Going to be a rude awakening for the third straight season for anyone drafting him as their WR1. 

 

 

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1 hour ago, joshua18 said:

 

And poor play. The Dez of 2012-2014 isn't coming back. The sooner people accept that, the less overrated he will be. 

 

Question.  Dez's 16 game pace (not counting a week 17 he didn't play against him) last season had him beating Doug Baldwin in standard, who I know is one of your trademark strongly supported guys, and he came on stronger the more time he had to build chemistry with Dak.  There's a little bit of a value difference here (a little under a round), so I can understand that being an argument in favor of Baldwin, but not enough for the amount of love you throw one while constantly throwing shade at the other.  

 

So why is Baldwin, coming off his most targeted season ever, with other young up and coming receivers on the team, and a team that wants to run the ball more, a better guy than Bryant, who has a still growing QB, no real competition at WR on the team, and a team much more likely to pass more.  Keep in mind he's already beating Baldwin at the status quo. 

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4 minutes ago, joshua18 said:

 

The Packers were a CFL-level defense. We all know that. 

 

Not a coincidence Dez has been dominated by elite CBs the past 3 seasons -- and he'll face them plenty this season (Jenkins x2, Norman x2, Peterson, Peters, Sherman, Talib, Verrett, Trufant, etc.).

 

Going to be a rude awakening for the third straight season for anyone drafting him as their WR1. 

 

 

Interesting.  Who was guarding him on the Skins last year when he had 7 catches for 102 yards?  And again in Week 12 with 5 for 72?  Or against the Vikings Week 13 when he had 4 for 84 and a touchdown?  

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24 minutes ago, jbshaw said:

Question.  Dez's 16 game pace (not counting a week 17 he didn't play against him) last season had him beating Doug Baldwin in standard, who I know is one of your trademark strongly supported guys, and he came on stronger the more time he had to build chemistry with Dak.  There's a little bit of a value difference here (a little under a round), so I can understand that being an argument in favor of Baldwin, but not enough for the amount of love you throw one while constantly throwing shade at the other.  

 

So why is Baldwin, coming off his most targeted season ever, with other young up and coming receivers on the team, and a team that wants to run the ball more, a better guy than Bryant, who has a still growing QB, no real competition at WR on the team, and a team much more likely to pass more.  Keep in mind he's already beating Baldwin at the status quo. 

Steve Barrett also has data showing that Baldwin does most of his damage against weak cbs. Don't wanna derail the thread but I had just seen a graph with that on there

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43 minutes ago, JoeJoe88 said:

Interesting.  Who was guarding him on the Skins last year when he had 7 catches for 102 yards?  And again in Week 12 with 5 for 72?  Or against the Vikings Week 13 when he had 4 for 84 and a touchdown?  

All the analysts are saying it...so it must be true. It's the whole "group think" that is going on. This reminds me of when people were saying Norman had shutdown dez(thanksgiving when Norman was a panther) and it was true dez didn't have good numbers but he was getting open just not getting thrown to. Also, for the people saying dez is old and isn't good because of injuries...he did ok the later half of the season if I remember correctly. 

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On 8/16/2017 at 0:22 PM, joshua18 said:

 

And Theilen was #6 over that same timespan (wks 10-16 in PPR). Do you want to spend a 2nd rd pick on him, too?

I mean; someone takes dez in the second round in about every league I've seen. If you were the 10th selection in a 12 team league.... and you went RB with your first pick... and you needed a WR; what do you do? There's Dez.. Tyreek Hill staring you in the face. Ancient Fitzgerald. I'm sorry but drafting Dez in the second round is fine and has a low floor. They're going to trail a lot this year and he's in his prime. It's not like you can wait and get dez in the third. It doesn't happen.

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