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Mookie Betts 2017 Outlook


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Mookie started slow for the 3rd year in a row (he's a slow starter), was slowed by the flu for a few days, and recently had another slump. He's still on pace to finish with around 50 doubles, 30 homers, 100 rbi, 100 runs, 25 steals. Crazy how good he is. As mentioned by roadawg, his babip is well below what it'll end up at. In my league (I play points, so the doubles and lack of k's give him a boost) he's the #1 hitter and #2 overall player the past 30 days. He's an absolute stud, and I don't know how anyone could think otherwise. 

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1 hour ago, Red Sox Nation said:

Mookie started slow for the 3rd year in a row (he's a slow starter), was slowed by the flu for a few days, and recently had another slump. He's still on pace to finish with around 50 doubles, 30 homers, 100 rbi, 100 runs, 25 steals. Crazy how good he is. As mentioned by roadawg, his babip is well below what it'll end up at. In my league (I play points, so the doubles and lack of k's give him a boost) he's the #1 hitter and #2 overall player the past 30 days. He's an absolute stud, and I don't know how anyone could think otherwise. 

 

yeah it's amazing considering his performance has felt slightly underwhelming.

 

I watch most of his AB's and I've gotta say he hits a lot of missiles right to the center fielder or seering grounders right at the third basemen. haven't checked, by i'd guess his BABIP has positive regression coming.

 

very few players I'd rather have in my every day lineup. Plus, his likeability factor

is in the clouds. and since fantasy is about fun first and foremost... he is just about untouchable for me

Edited by ChicksDigTheOPS
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Without naming names, which one of these 5 category statistical seasons would you rather have on your team RoS? For the sake of argument assume they all play the same position and would equally address the specific circumstances in your leagues scoring to fill a needed role on your fantasy team.

 

Player A: 465 PA, .319, 12 HR, 24 SB, 65 R, 55 RBI

Player B: 484 PA, .301, 17 HR, 18 SB, 69 R, 66 RBI

Player C: 448 PA, .292, 19 HR, 15 SB, 67 R, 65 RBI 

 

 

Edited by EmbargoLifted
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10 minutes ago, EmbargoLifted said:

Without naming names, which one of these 5 category statistical seasons would you rather have on your team RoS? For the sake of argument assume they all play the same position.

 

Player A: 465 PA, .319, 12 HR, 24 SB, 65 R, 55 RBI

Player B: 484 PA, .301, 17 HR, 18 SB, 69 R, 66 RBI

Player C: 448 PA, .292, 19 HR, 15 SB, 67 R, 65 RBI 

 

 

B. Pretty darn close. But projections are just that. From 2015-today:

Mookie- .302/246/58/222/55

1604 PAs 

Goldy- .309/253/68/243/65

1631 PAs

 

Love Mookie. Virtually identical. But Goldy has him beat across the board. 

 

 

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For me personally I'd go with player A ... in my 12 team mixed league using the SGP method for player valuations a SB is slightly more valuable than HR .. and player A has a very SB heavy 36 HR & SB where player B has 35, and player C has 34. Add the .19 of batting average and it makes up for the lack of R/RBI easily. 

 

So I go with Player A. 

Edited by EmbargoLifted
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2017 actual stat line: .260/.340/.470, (.256 BABIP)

2017 expected/xstats: .300/.377/.470 (312 BABIP)

 

Once the BA & OBP correct, the Rs/RBI/SB pace should significantly improve. 

 

 

 

Edited by EmbargoLifted
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He's definately not the stud ( so far ) most of us were hoping for a third of the way thru the season. Of course that could all change. Altuve was off to a slow start but has picked it up the last couple of weeks. Of the two I want Altuve .

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Outside of Goldschmidt & Altuve nobody is producing in all 5 categories like Betts is.  

 

He's still only a hot couple of weeks away from shooting up the overall rankings and returning good value on his draft cost.

Edited by EmbargoLifted
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4 minutes ago, EmbargoLifted said:

Outside of Goldschmidt & Altuve nobody is producing in all 5 categories like Betts is.  

 

He's still only a hot couple of weeks away from shooting up the overall rankings and returning good value on his draft cost.

 

Average is a category. .261 is not considered producing in most formats. Not sure why you keep repeating this line.

 

 

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Using one league counting Ave and obp Mookie is ranked 93

 

In a straight 5X5 he is 60

 

You can cut some slack as he was sick to start the season. Happens but he really hasn't done much overall

 

Along with Altuve and Goldschmidt might be wise yo include Trout. I don't know how much value he can provide as in most redrafts he was a top 4 pick.

 

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He's a career .263 hitter in April and. 271 in May, he was hitting .287 like a week ago. His hottest months, in his brief career, have been from June on. He did hit .298 last May, of course he's below that mark this season. I'm expecting him to hear up and have another good year. 

 

I think part of his problem, he may be trying too hard to get the big hit or HR without Ortiz in the lineup. He just needs to remeber to be himself and whatever defficincies the Sox lineup has without Ortiz he can't eradicate by himself or pressing too hard. 

 

It hasn't really heat up on the East coast yet either, once it does I expect Betts to be more consistent. I wouldn't panic and sell low at this point and come to regret it.

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0 for his last 14 now. Struck out in the first, softly popped out on a hanging changeup in the third, just fouled out behind home plate in his 3rd AB... he looks pretty lost right now. 

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1 hour ago, absknicks said:

0 for his last 14 now. Struck out in the first, softly popped out on a hanging changeup in the third, just fouled out behind home plate in his 3rd AB... he looks pretty lost right now. 

He turned it around though. His last two AB's he ripped a double down (and scored later that inning) the LF line, and then lined a single to center (and got an RBI). I know the double was off Ubaldo who shouldn't be in the league, but still good signs. Hopefully he can build on this, because as you said, those first 3 AB's were bad.

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55 minutes ago, soxfan94 said:

He turned it around though. His last two AB's he ripped a double down (and scored later that inning) the LF line, and then lined a single to center (and got an RBI). I know the double was off Ubaldo who shouldn't be in the league, but still good signs. Hopefully he can build on this, because as you said, those first 3 AB's were bad.

 

Good to see. Going against Tillman tomorrow who has looked plain awful (and not healthy) since returning so a good opportunity to build on this. 

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15 hours ago, Dr. Whom said:

He is only a  couple of weeks from batting below the Mendoza line

 

No way he returns first round value this year...He is a fluke and the correction/regression is upon us. Yeah he will chip some steals and HR, but his first round days are long gone and he will become another Justin Upton without the K's

 

If you drafted him in the first round...you already lost

 

....he is a fluke lololololol

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4 hours ago, TomBradysCollegeRoommate said:

He has his (insane) hot streaks, and he has his cold streaks. I thought we'd already established this. He will no doubt return first round numbers by year's end. If you can't handle it, trade him. Idk what else to tell you

 

I mean, it's impossible for you to say that with any certainty, but sure. 

 

He's had one season in which he produced first round value. There's a good chance he will put up top 15-20 value but to act like it's a foregone conclusion is setting yourself and others up for disappointment. 

Edited by absknicks
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