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Mookie Betts 2017 Outlook


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24 minutes ago, Dr. Whom said:

You could have picked up Didi Gregerious and got almost the same stat line. Does Didi now have first round floor numbers?

 

I wish it was not true although it appears Mookie is overrated this year

 

19 minutes ago, BohCountyBats said:

Didi has 138 points in my CBS points league, Mookie has 242. Nice comp bro.

 

I think the problem is a lot of people just look at stats from the previous season and assume it will be repeated or improved upon. Mookie was drafted as if he was going to repeat the ridiculous season he put up last year.

 

But if someone dug deeper, looked at his underlying numbers, especially regarding contact quality, his batted ball profile, etc, he most likely overperformed last season, especially in the HR category. xStats had him down for 22.4 HR, rather than the 31 he hit. Also, factor in the David Ortiz retired, a guy who was putting up MVP numbers himself, and trading away their 3rd baseman, the lineup was weakened and RBI and Runs would go down as well.

 

I drafted (well actually kept) him expecting a floor of .290 with 20 HR and 20 SB. I think he is still on pace for that and anything he performs over that is gravy for me.

Edited by lassetjus
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6 hours ago, lassetjus said:

 

 

I think the problem is a lot of people just look at stats from the previous season and assume it will be repeated or improved upon. Mookie was drafted as if he was going to repeat the ridiculous season he put up last year.

 

But if someone dug deeper, looked at his underlying numbers, especially regarding contact quality, his batted ball profile, etc, he most likely overperformed last season, especially in the HR category. xStats had him down for 22.4 HR, rather than the 31 he hit. Also, factor in the David Ortiz retired, a guy who was putting up MVP numbers himself, and trading away their 3rd baseman, the lineup was weakened and RBI and Runs would go down as well.

 

I drafted (well actually kept) him expecting a floor of .290 with 20 HR and 20 SB. I think he is still on pace for that and anything he performs over that is gravy for me.

 

 

The best of Mookie came after June 13th, last year.  Where he had 17 homers, 68 RBI, and 17 SB.  with a slash of around .345/.390/.550.   

 

In just July and August he had 14 HR  42 RBI and slashed .373/.415/.660 and then his power tailed off in September

Edited by rich22
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On 6/7/2017 at 10:42 PM, absknicks said:

OPS below .800 and we're now entering the second week of June. Are we allowed to acknowledge its been a struggle yet? He's ranked in the 50s in traditional 5x5 but for a guy who was the second guy off the board in a lot of drafts that's not going to cut it. I really don't like the feel/look of that Sox lineup either, although I'm sure someone will just chalk that up to me being a biased Yankees fan.

 

 

We haven't finished the 2nd month of June and it's up to .837 already.   Gee that happened quick.  It went from .786 to .837 in 4 days.  He is a streaky hitter and his hot streaks last much longer that his cold ones.   At this time, last year, his OPS was .863.  Not that much of a difference.   He hit 31 HR's last year.  I didn't expect that again, this year.   25 ish is about what I expected

Edited by rich22
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On 6/7/2017 at 10:58 PM, absknicks said:

I see the Buy Low opportunity... just think you're more likely to get 2015 than 2016 Mookie for this year at least. 2015 Mookie was still a top-35 player, just not the top-2 player he was last year.

 

I have to say I've watched the lionshare of his ABs and he's not scalding the ball right at people or anything. Lots of lazy popups and rollovers to third. So while I definitely expect some average correction I don't think this is something you can simply chalk up to bad luck. 

 

Somewhere in-between is 25-95 .305   24 SB    .855 OPS.   Seems about right for this year, 

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6 hours ago, BohCountyBats said:

Didi has 138 points in my CBS points league, Mookie has 242. Nice comp bro.

 

 

In all fairness DIdi missed 4 weeks.  If you prorate, it's much closer.

 

In my points league Mookie is averaging 3.99 pts per game.   Elite is anything over 4.0.   Mookie is 9th in total points for a hitter.   But in standard 5x5 he is 31st.   Mookie will heat up, now that the weather has heated up

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There were 11 hitters taken in most first rounds, in standard 12 team leagues.   We will just count 9 of them, since Trout and Donaldson have missed a lot of time.  Out of those 9 Mookie is ranked 6th in standard leagues.   Behind Goldschmidt, Arenado, Altuve, Harper, and Blackmon.   Ahead of Bryant, Rizzo, and Machado.  He is also ahead of the 12th hitter chosen, Miggy

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5 minutes ago, rich22 said:

There were 11 hitters taken in most first rounds, in standard 12 team leagues.   We will just count 9 of them, since Trout and Donaldson have missed a lot of time.  Out of those 9 Mookie is ranked 6th in standard leagues.   Behind Goldschmidt, Arenado, Altuve, Harper, and Blackmon.   Ahead of Bryant, Rizzo, and Machado.  He is also ahead of the 12th hitter chosen, Miggy

 

#perspective 

 

Mookie hasn't been a top 3 rated player like many projected.  But he also hasn't killed you and Mookie is really having a good season despite the counting numbers being on pace for less than last year.  His peripherals continue to improve.

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4 hours ago, FouLLine said:

 

#perspective 

 

Mookie hasn't been a top 3 rated player like many projected.  But he also hasn't killed you and Mookie is really having a good season despite the counting numbers being on pace for less than last year.  His peripherals continue to improve.

Mookie sees your peripheral improvement and raises you an O-fer

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He's been just ok. Spin it any way you want. It is what it is. Just been decent not great. Not superstar. Guys who won't sell him for a huge haul acting like he's trout are out of their minds

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1 minute ago, cmike17 said:

Can't believe how much complaining there is about this guy 

 

People said the same thing when he had a short hot streak a few weeks ago then he immediately went back to slumping. Let's just let things play out without the "told you so's" after every good/bad performance.

 

Also worth pointing out its the Phillies. Let's see him put together a great month then we can all rejoice. 

 

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Mookie was OPSing under .800 coming into this week. He was drafted #2 overall. Let's dispense with the idea that people are fabricating his struggles. He's put up some nice stats against the Phillies to boost his season line a bit, but to act like he's been fine and there's no reason for people to criticize/question his performance to date is just dishonest.

 

Amazing the mental gymnastics some people will go through to try and paint a subpar performance as a good/great one. 

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6 minutes ago, absknicks said:

Amazing the mental gymnastics some people will go through to try and paint a subpar performance as a good/great one. 

 

That goes both ways in this thread. See above for people calling him out for going 0/6 a night after going 4/5.

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