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Mookie Betts 2017 Outlook


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2 hours ago, neph27 said:

Do the people selling look at the periphrials? It was pretty clear from them that he'd had some BABIP bad luck/lineup holding him back. These things tend to regress back to where he normally sits. I'm sure people got decent hauls at least but Mookie can get HOT in a hurry. 

 

Why are you open to trading someone someone so obviously talented? Like, throughout his minor league careeer, professional career, etc. why aren't you just plugging this guy and forgetting every day? Forget the noise, I can't stress this enough.

 

 

I'm 55 Y/O    I don't give a crap about peripherals.   I see track record.  I watch AB's with my eyes.  Mookie goes 6 weeks hot, 2 weeks cold.  Then ends up a top 10 hitter.  He is money and one of the safest

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50 minutes ago, FouLLine said:

Aaaand ya'll can come off the ledge now ... There were a lot of concerned owners out there.

 

 

Every friggen year...........

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3 hours ago, Backdoor Slider said:

Oh no he's definitely struggled. I don't remember any "mental gymnastics" trying to deny that. But there are guys like Machado who you can rightfully complain and/or worry about, and then there's Mookie, who is plugging along and doing just fine. Would I LOVE if he was top 5 consistently all year? I suppose. But I only care about final numbers. I don't care about where he's at in June. He's well within striking distance. 

And you always bring up his draft spot. What is ok for you for him to finish? Is he a bust if he's not top 5? Top 10? Do you know the track record in fantasy baseball, & how this works? Last year Trout, Goldy, & Kershaw were the only 3 1st rounders to finish top 12 in 5 x 5. Your 1st round pick doesn't need to finish top 12 to be a worthwhile investment. This has been explained over and over. 

 

 

but he, really, hasn't struggled

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24 minutes ago, rich22 said:

 

 

I'm 55 Y/O    I don't give a crap about peripherals.   I see track record.  I watch AB's with my eyes.  Mookie goes 6 weeks hot, 2 weeks cold.  Then ends up a top 10 hitter.  He is money and one of the safest

 

We can tell.

 

 

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11 minutes ago, absknicks said:

 

We can tell.

 

 

 

ok....we can succeed anyway we can.   Huge bomber fan, like you are.  season ticket holder from 95-11.  we can respectfully disagree sometimes.  I was here under a different login in years past

tonights game was very upsetting.  F'in Pineda

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41 minutes ago, rich22 said:

 

 

I'm 55 Y/O    I don't give a crap about peripherals.   I see track record.  I watch AB's with my eyes.  Mookie goes 6 weeks hot, 2 weeks cold.  Then ends up a top 10 hitter.  He is money and one of the safest

 

The poster your responded to was saying that peripherals supporting Mookie being fine. You guys (and most of us) agree.

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4 hours ago, neph27 said:

Do the people selling look at the periphrials? It was pretty clear from them that he'd had some BABIP bad luck/lineup holding him back. These things tend to regress back to where he normally sits. I'm sure people got decent hauls at least but Mookie can get HOT in a hurry. 

 

Why are you open to trading someone someone so obviously talented? Like, throughout his minor league careeer, professional career, etc. why aren't you just plugging this guy and forgetting every day? Forget the noise, I can't stress this enough.

Any player is trade able with the tight offer. Last year I traded Trout for what amounted to depth at the time (Blackmon/Carpenter). This year traded Bryant/Thames for Sale to shore up my up pitching. And Gordon/Chaplman for TTurner. 

 

The right offer for Betts comes along I'd trade him  if it made sense for my team. But anyone saying that you shouldn't trade a player no matter how good he is isn't giving sound advice. But trading a player like Betts for less then full value doesn't make a lot either.

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7 minutes ago, Low and Away said:

Any player is trade able with the tight offer. Last year I traded Trout for what amounted to depth at the time (Blackmon/Carpenter). This year traded Bryant/Thames for Sale to shore up my up pitching. And Gordon/Chaplman for TTurner. 

 

The right offer for Betts comes along I'd trade him  if it made sense for my team. But anyone saying that you shouldn't trade a player no matter how good he is isn't giving sound advice. But trading a player like Betts for less then full value doesn't make a lot either.

 

Yeah, but they traded low.   Bad bad move.    This isn't what they are saying in here.  

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I can't believe I forgot to mention this in my last rant, but just to add to my point that a pretty good correction in Mookie's current stats seem to be on the horizon: Dude has more walks than strikeouts.

 

I repeat. More walks than strikeouts. Something he's never done before. Anyone who follows baseball knows that's a damn good sign of hitting maturity.  No, it's not an end-all / be-all stat, but typically when an elite player makes that jump, it further solidifies their status as a bonafide superstar hitter.  Case in point: go look at Albert Pujols.  In fact, compare his prime years to his declining years.

 

Sooo to recap....

1.) His BAPIP is at a woefully unlucky ~.260 which is what the league's worst hitters are typically at.  He's usually around .320  Correction coming...

2.) Improving batting eye...On pace for a career high 77 walks, and 62 strikeouts (shaving off 20 from last 2 years)! So really, no need to worry...

3.) Oh wait, why are we even worrying? He's been awesome already...25-25 pace even before today's huge game.

 

People who complain about Mookie are the same exact people who will complain that the leather in their fancy car is too hot in summer. 

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On 6/15/2017 at 5:56 AM, markygunit said:

I can't believe I forgot to mention this in my last rant, but just to add to my point that a pretty good correction in Mookie's current stats seem to be on the horizon: Dude has more walks than strikeouts.

 

I repeat. More walks than strikeouts. Something he's never done before. Anyone who follows baseball knows that's a damn good sign of hitting maturity.  No, it's not an end-all / be-all stat, but typically when an elite player makes that jump, it further solidifies their status as a bonafide superstar hitter.  Case in point: go look at Albert Pujols.  In fact, compare his prime years to his declining years.

 

Sooo to recap....

1.) His BAPIP is at a woefully unlucky ~.260 which is what the league's worst hitters are typically at.  He's usually around .320  Correction coming...

2.) Improving batting eye...On pace for a career high 77 walks, and 62 strikeouts (shaving off 20 from last 2 years)! So really, no need to worry...

3.) Oh wait, why are we even worrying? He's been awesome already...25-25 pace even before today's huge game.

 

People who complain about Mookie are the same exact people who will complain that the leather in their fancy car is too hot in summer.  GFY.  

 

He had a sub .800 OPS entering the week. He has not been "awesome already." 

 

He's had a big week against the Phillies staff. Hopefully something to build on. By why do some people insist misrepresenting his performance for a large portion of the season? I've always liked his skillset as a player and the peripherals you laid out are a good illustration of that but sometimes performance doesn't match up with skillset and that's what the issue has been (these last 3 days notwithstanding) for Mookie so far in 2017.

 

 

 

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Hey absknicks, 

 

Any baseball fan knows that stats are not always what they seem.  Aside from fantasy baseball, does anyone really think traditional stats like BA, RBI, etc. really portend how good a player actually is anymore? It's why sites like Fangraphs exist now.  When I look at a no-name pitcher posting a sub 3.00 ERA, you better believe I'm checking his FIP, K/9, etc. to see if he's legit or just plain getting lucky.  

 

Anyways, when you cherry-pick Mookie's stats and say, "hey he's batting under .800 OPS" in game 55 of a 162-game season, I think the rest of the board can get tired of it pretty quick.

 

But let's entertain your complaint just for argument's sake: his OPS was under .800 entering this week.

 

So what?  

 

His OPS on Apr 18th was .909, on  May 1st was .782, on May 30th it was .850.  On June 8th it was .787, today it's at .860.  There, I just did the same thing and cherry picked random dates in this early a** season.

On 6/15/2017 at 6:06 AM, absknicks said:

He had a sub .800 OPS entering the week. He has not been "awesome already." 

 

He's had a big week against the Phillies staff. Hopefully something to build on. By why do some people insist misrepresenting his performance for a large portion of the season?

 

On 6/15/2017 at 6:06 AM, absknicks said:

(these last 3 days notwithstanding)

 

That's kinda the point, isn't it?  When one big game can help bring a sub-.800 all the way up to .860, that should tell you something, shouldn't it?  

 

And stop poo-pooing his big week against the Phillies as if it's that's something to hold against him.  Good hitters feast on bad pitching/teams...that's a fact.  And who cares how the sausage gets made?  If Mookie absolutely crushed it in the first 3 months instead of these next 3 months for a final overall line that brings him to a Top 5 finish, then again, stop complaining...Not saying he still will, but when a dude is on a 25-25 pace, and we're all feeling "hey the peripherals and advanced stats say he's actually due for even better stats", that's why we get annoyed with comments like yours.

 

Baseball is all about ebbs and flows, highs and lows...and you put faith in that the law of averages work out more often than not for your star players by season's end. Again, how do you not know this as a longtime baseball fan?  These guys aren't robots.  

 

And my point still stands, he's been "awesome already" anyways.  25-25 pace is still awesome. 

 

Just take the L and learn to be patient...

 

 

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Btw- stating his OPS was under .800 entering the week isn't a complaint, it's a fact. I decided to use your bold-for-emphasis style just to make sure that point gets across. Important distinction that gets lost too often around here. 

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54 minutes ago, absknicks said:

Btw- stating his OPS was under .800 entering the week isn't a complaint, it's a fact.

 

I just checked my OPS league (I don't own him there), and his overall ranking after last night is 18th. He was probably somewhere in the twenties prior to last night's outburst. 

 

Even with what was an un-Mookie-like OPS under .800, he was still a top bat and on track to return on any investment made in him. There's no reason to be worried, especially now that his OPS is back where it belongs. 

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12 minutes ago, Evincar said:

I think him and the Red Sox offence will have a huge 2nd half, especially if they get a guy like Moustakas.

They don't even need a guy like Moustakas, they just need league average 3B, they currently have the worst 3B in league, he has a negative WAR for 3rd year in a row (Thanks Ben Cherrington!).

Back to Mookie - he's shown tonight why he's so valuable. He's made some great defensive plays, including throwing a runner out at home, and hit the go ahead homer. He's such a stud.

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Thank you Marky very well said. Mookie is one of the best bats in baseball and it's very funny people like to comment about post count like it means anything? So post count correlates to understanding baseball?

 

Just like people's ability to see the signal from the noise in baseball stats despite posting on rotoworld all the time?

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