Jump to content
NBC Sports Edge Forums

Mookie Betts 2017 Outlook


Recommended Posts

48 minutes ago, DannyMcPot said:

He is on pace to deliver owners a very similar season to last year which would be first round value. I'm not really sure what the let down is in any format. If I told you at the beginning of the year he'd end up with .280/28/28, you'd be disappointed? 

Mookie was a safe pick with a very high floor and he's delivered an extremely solid season so far. Again, he hasn't even gone on a real tear yet and his BABIP is sitting at a career low. He could actually turn in a better season than last year. 

If anything has disappointed me this year in regard to Mookie's fantasy season, it's been the Red Sox. 

 

He's not on pace to deliver a similar season as last year. 

Link to post
Share on other sites
  • Replies 1.3k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

11 minutes ago, absknicks said:

He's not on pace to deliver a similar season as last year. 

In the same # of ABs as last year, he's on pace for

.280 107/28/92/28

Last year he went:

.318 122/31/113/26 

The biggest discrepancies are his R & RBI which are mostly affected by his lineup. They look like pretty similar seasons to me. What exactly were people expecting from him? 40/40? I can understand gripes about his BA but his metrics show he's due for some positive changes.

Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, DannyMcPot said:

In the same # of ABs as last year, he's on pace for

.280 107/28/92/28

Last year he went:

.318 122/31/113/26 

The biggest discrepancies are his R & RBI which are mostly affected by his lineup. They look like pretty similar seasons to me. What exactly were people expecting from him? 40/40? I can understand gripes about his BA but his metrics show he's due for some positive changes.

 

There's a massive difference in the value produced by a guy who hits .280 and a guy who hits .318. Not to mention every other category is down too other than SBs. That's a big time drop off from last year for fantasy purposes. 

Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, absknicks said:

 

There's a massive difference in the value produced by a guy who hits .280 and a guy who hits .318. Not to mention every other category is down too other than SBs. That's a big time drop off from last year for fantasy purposes. 

So if he maintains pace without ever really heating up (doubtful), he'll hit 3 less home runs but 16 more doubles. Real tough break there lol 

Again do we believe a guy who hit .318 last year, showing much improved plate discipline this year, a career .300 hitter, with an all time low in BABIP is suddenly a .277 hitter? 

The biggest bust to his value from last year has been the Red Sox and there's not much you can do about that. They've been disappointing as a whole offensively. 

Link to post
Share on other sites

His 3 most production months, in his career, are August, September and July.  In that order.   He already has 3 runs and 2 SB in 1 game in July.   

Link to post
Share on other sites
3 hours ago, absknicks said:

 

There's a massive difference in the value produced by a guy who hits .280 and a guy who hits .318. Not to mention every other category is down too other than SBs. That's a big time drop off from last year for fantasy purposes. 

Come on, man.. do you really think he's a 280 hitter this year? Surely someone who's been around as long as you knows how babip works and understand that a career 309 babip player currently at 269 is probably due for regression.. all of the underlying metrics say he's actually doing better at the plate than he was last season. Walk rate and hard hit rate are both up, while his k rate is down.

Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, osb_tensor said:

Come on, man.. do you really think he's a 280 hitter this year? Surely someone who's been around as long as you knows how babip works and understand that a career 309 babip player currently at 269 is probably due for regression.. all of the underlying metrics say he's actually doing better at the plate than he was last season. Walk rate and hard hit rate are both up, while his k rate is down.

 

He was projecting out his season totals, not me. .280 was his number. Whatever you want to project it out as, I think anyone being objective about it would clearly see he is not even close to on pace to have the season he had last year. 

Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, absknicks said:

 

He was projecting out his season totals, not me. .280 was his number. Whatever you want to project it out as, I think anyone being objective about it would clearly see he is not even close to on pace to have the season he had last year. 

Yeah, but you didn't answer my question. Do you think he's a 280 hitter going forward?

Link to post
Share on other sites
9 minutes ago, osb_tensor said:

Yeah, but you didn't answer my question. Do you think he's a 280 hitter going forward?

I think he is but really this was a guy who I had as a .330 hitter this season, winning the batting title. So .280 is kind of like kissing your sister with Mook

Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, mevins31 said:

I think he is but really this was a guy who I had as a .330 hitter this season, winning the batting title. So .280 is kind of like kissing your sister with Mook

i don't understand.

you had him pegged as a 330 hitter pre-season, but you now think he's a 280 hitter. what changed your perception of his talent?

Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, osb_tensor said:

i don't understand.

you had him pegged as a 330 hitter pre-season, but you now think he's a 280 hitter. what changed your perception of his talent?

I think he is absolutely a .280+ hitter going forward, yes. I was answering your question.

 

What changed my perception of his talent was that he doesn't look like a .330 hitter. For Mookie betts to hit .280 is no big deal. He's better than that. For whatever reason it's just not coming to fruition to be a batting title winner as I predicted before the season. I have not watched him a ton lately. He's steady, not dominant just by statting him and not studying him.

Link to post
Share on other sites
19 minutes ago, osb_tensor said:

Yeah, but you didn't answer my question. Do you think he's a 280 hitter going forward?

 

No, he's better than a .280 hitter, or at least he should be. He hits a ton of infield popups though which will always keep the BABIP a bit on the lower side for a guy with his speed and contact ability. 

Link to post
Share on other sites
5 minutes ago, absknicks said:

 

No, he's better than a .280 hitter, or at least he should be. He hits a ton of infield popups though which will always keep the BABIP a bit on the lower side for a guy with his speed and contact ability. 

true statement. he's hit 18 infield popups this year and last year at this same time he only had 11.

i don't think calling him a 1st round bust is justified at this point, but to each their own.

Link to post
Share on other sites

Everytime I see someone trying to rain on the Mookie parade in this thread, I run back to my league and check his player rater ranking (currently 22 not counting the 2 steals tonight). Then I have a good laugh. 

Link to post
Share on other sites
7 hours ago, jseay65 said:

Everytime I see someone trying to rain on the Mookie parade in this thread, I run back to my league and check his player rater ranking (currently 22 not counting the 2 steals tonight). Then I have a good laugh. 

 

He's 12th in my points based league. In a 14 team league, that's 1st round value.

 

If you are telling me he's struggling, then I can't wait to see where he'll be when he gets hot.

Link to post
Share on other sites
3 hours ago, warningtrackpower said:

 

He's 12th in my points based league. In a 14 team league, that's 1st round value.

 

If you are telling me he's struggling, then I can't wait to see where he'll be when he gets hot.

I think he has been very good so far this year. Since May 7 Mookie Betts has

42 runs, 11 HRs, 30 RBI, 10 SB.


People forget that Betts didn't get his 3rd HR until May 7. April was a lost month for him. I was worried in April with his HR production but his recent statline is trending up.

 

RBI #s are out of his control; the team around him is not as good. He is the #3 ranked OF on espn and over the past 2 months has likely been the #1 overall.

 

Is he going to live up to the lofty pre-season projections? Probably not. But I'll take top 3 OF production from my 1st round pick any day of the week.

Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Pablo989 said:

I think he has been very good so far this year. Since May 7 Mookie Betts has

42 runs, 11 HRs, 30 RBI, 10 SB.


People forget that Betts didn't get his 3rd HR until May 7. April was a lost month for him. I was worried in April with his HR production but his recent statline is trending up.

 

RBI #s are out of his control; the team around him is not as good. He is the #3 ranked OF on espn and over the past 2 months has likely been the #1 overall.

 

Is he going to live up to the lofty pre-season projections? Probably not. But I'll take top 3 OF production from my 1st round pick any day of the week.

 

Hes making up for no Ortiz with more running. With a few power bursts he'll be top 10. 

 

I'd be more encouraged that ever

Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, Pablo989 said:

I think he has been very good so far this year. Since May 7 Mookie Betts has

42 runs, 11 HRs, 30 RBI, 10 SB.


People forget that Betts didn't get his 3rd HR until May 7. April was a lost month for him. I was worried in April with his HR production but his recent statline is trending up.

 

RBI #s are out of his control; the team around him is not as good. He is the #3 ranked OF on espn and over the past 2 months has likely been the #1 overall.

 

Is he going to live up to the lofty pre-season projections? Probably not. But I'll take top 3 OF production from my 1st round pick any day of the week.

 

Huh? Honestly don't know what format you're playing but not a chance.... c'mon guys 


Also if he's the #3 OF overall in your league you need to change the scoring format. Judge, Blackmon, Harper, Springer have all been far better than him by any objective measure. And that's just off the top of my head. 

Edited by absknicks
Link to post
Share on other sites
6 hours ago, warningtrackpower said:

 

He's 12th in my points based league. In a 14 team league, that's 1st round value.

 

If you are telling me he's struggling, then I can't wait to see where he'll be when he gets hot.

 

Most people do not play points leagues. 

Link to post
Share on other sites
9 minutes ago, absknicks said:

 

Huh? Honestly don't know what format you're playing but not a chance.... c'mon guys 


Also if he's the #3 OF overall in your league you need to change the scoring format. Judge, Blackmon, Harper, Springer have all been far better than him by any objective measure. And that's just off the top of my head. 

I am in an 8x8 BAT/PIT category league. 29 Strikeouts and 39 Walks raises his value considerably. I agree though that in a 5 category league he probably is not as valuable.

Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, Pablo989 said:

I am in an 8x8 BAT/PIT category league. 29 Strikeouts and 39 Walks raises his value considerably. I agree though that in a 5 category league he probably is not as valuable.

 

Ok that explains it. Goes back to a point I made a couple of days ago about everyone having different vantage points based on their format, settings, etc

Link to post
Share on other sites

Absolutely agree. I'm not going to argue that he is a top 3 OF in real life because he is not. But in my format he is damn near #1.

 

I'm sure that in a standard 5x5 league he is much closer to #10 due to his lower HR and avg.

Link to post
Share on other sites

I am a big on calling out players who suck but complaining about Mookie Betts is comical. 

8 minutes ago, absknicks said:

 

Ok that explains it. Goes back to a point I made a couple of days ago about everyone having different vantage points based on their format, settings, etc

 

a regular 5x5 Mookie is the 7th ranked OF'er

21 minutes ago, absknicks said:

 

Most people do not play points leagues. 

 

my opinion -- point leagues are hilarious

Link to post
Share on other sites

We've kinda been doing the same song and dance in this thread for a couple of months now. He goes cold for 1-2 weeks straight and there's a lot of silence, few people stopping by to express frustration (and a few over the top complaints, yes), then he gets hot for 2-3 days and we get the "it's INSANE to complain about this guy" takes... and the cycle repeats over and over. The truth is he's fluctuated between 30-50 overall in terms of 5x5 overall rank all year.

Edited by absknicks
Link to post
Share on other sites

In my standard (+K's) league he's ranked 18th overall, 5th best OF. In my OPS league he's ranked 21st overall, 9th best OF. And this was after a lost April. 

 

My suggestion for anyone who is upset with his production is to trade him. You'll be able to get just about anyone you want for him. 

Edited by jseay65
Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.


×
×
  • Create New...