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Mookie Betts 2017 Outlook


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29 minutes ago, hailtoyourvictor said:

Mookie up to #14 overall on ESPN's 5x5 player rater

 

In my 6x6 league (ops) he's 21st. Took him with the 6th pick. Stability is what you're looking for in your 1st rounder. Not necessarily pick for pick ROI. I'm in no way dissapointed.

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9 hours ago, absknicks said:

 

The infield popup % is a contributing factor to why his BABIP has been down more than normal this year. That's pretty much indisputable and Dave Cameron said the same thing in a recent Fangraphs chat, IIRC.

 

I guess you misunderstood the discussion or simply inferred something from that comment that wasn't intended. 

 

 

 

Indisputable? @absknicks- I have the utmost respect for Dave Cameron and I'm sure he did say something similar to what you're saying he said in a FG chat.  Yes he is at 14.6% IFFB this year, slightly up from his 12.3% last year. But pull up his Fangraphs page and look at his IFFB% and corresponding BABIPs for EVERY year. 

                  IFFB% / BABIP

2012 (A-)      18 / .298

2013 (A)      14.5 / .322

2013 (A+)   19.5 / .346

2014 (AA)   16.3 / .366

2014 (AAA) 19.7 / .380

2014 (MLB) 11.5 / .327

2015 (MLB) 10.5 / .310

2016 (MLB) 12.3 / .322

2017 (MLB) 14.6 / .276

 

Now tell me his BABIP is so low because of an increase in his IFFB%....

 

There is no evidence to support your opinion

 

 

 

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1 hour ago, 6Kill said:

 

Indisputable? @absknicks- I have the utmost respect for Dave Cameron and I'm sure he did say something similar to what you're saying he said in a FG chat.  Yes he is at 14.6% IFFB this year, slightly up from his 12.3% last year. But pull up his Fangraphs page and look at his IFFB% and corresponding BABIPs for EVERY year. 

                  IFFB% / BABIP

2012 (A-)      18 / .298

2013 (A)      14.5 / .322

2013 (A+)   19.5 / .346

2014 (AA)   16.3 / .366

2014 (AAA) 19.7 / .380

2014 (MLB) 11.5 / .327

2015 (MLB) 10.5 / .310

2016 (MLB) 12.3 / .322

2017 (MLB) 14.6 / .276

 

Now tell me his BABIP is so low because of an increase in his IFFB%....

 

There is no evidence to support your opinion

 

 

 

 

The point was he hits a lot of IFFBs in general. That's it. Meaning not just this year, but every year. Which is why his BABIP has never been as good as you'd expect for a guy with his speed/contact ability. 

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11 hours ago, absknicks said:

The infield popup % is a contributing factor to why his BABIP has been down more than normal this year. That's pretty much indisputable and Dave Cameron said the same thing in a recent Fangraphs chat, IIRC.

 

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8 hours ago, markygunit said:

 

A week and a half later, this guy (absknicks) still trying to act like his Mookie complaining was of sound reasoning... :D 

 

By game 140, when Mookie is nearing last year's stats: "Well if the season was only 60 games long, he would finish only as a top 25 player and not top 10! HMPH, Bust!11!!"

 

I'd love for you to point out where I was complaining about him. Unfortunately these threads often devolve into cheerleading sections rather than comprehensive discussions about a player's outlook. I realize that's because we get a lot of casuals on here and some who just don't know much about the game so they can't discuss it intelligently, but still frustrating. That's always been an issue for me and why I've migrated to other forums recently. 

Edited by absknicks
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4 minutes ago, 6Kill said:

 

 

Yeah, I misspoke. His IFFB% is up this year and that's never good for one's BABIP, but my broader point was in general he's always hit a lot of IFFBs. Again, this isn't a revolutionary point, several of the FanGraphs/Baseball Prospectus guys have made it, but unfortunately a lot of people have more interest in snarky replies/cheerleading than actually discussing a player's profile on here.

 

By the way all this discussion about his IFFB% was in response to a direct question asked to be my osb about his BABIP. Not like I brought it up out of the blue.

Edited by absknicks
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In points leagues,  at least in mine,  he's ranked #3 overall hitter so far.  Right behind Votto and Goldy and just ahead of Judge.  

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22 hours ago, osb_tensor said:

 

correct me if i'm wrong, but i believe per PA would be the best calculation for this stat

 

 

PA's and AB's will change year by year, but teams always play 162 games (minus rainouts not made up).    Easiest example, if team has played 81 games, just double his stats.  If a player has 10 HR in 70 games, divide 10 by 70 then multiply by 162, and he would be at a 23 HR pace after 70 games.   Because you assume he will sit, at the same ratio, for the remaining games.    If the player was injured and missed a lot of time, then it would not make sense to do it that way

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Mookie 2016 v. 2017 comparison as of July 2nd

 

 

2016:    17 HR, 55 RBI, .296 AVG, .855 OPS, 13 SB.   Sox played 80 Games

2017:    15 HR, 51 RBI, .286 AVG, .874 OPS, 15 SB     Sox played 82 games

 

2016 after 82 games:  18 HR, 57 RBI, .296 AVG, .858 OPS, 13 SB

 

Pretty similar.    

 

He is what we thought he would be.   No better, no worse.   

Edited by rich22
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How about the BB/K improvement Mookie has shown so far? Last year he was at 0.61, this year 1.30. This is an elite rate for someone his age - filter by guys 25 and under over the last 25 years you're looking at names like Lofton, Ventura, Knoblauch, Pujols, Pedroia, etc.

 

My point is, Mookie is a stud, and will be for a long time. I don't know, maybe in today's baseball of K's and HRs he's just undervalued by some.

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42 minutes ago, YuSlyDog said:

How about the BB/K improvement Mookie has shown so far? Last year he was at 0.61, this year 1.30. This is an elite rate for someone his age - filter by guys 25 and under over the last 25 years you're looking at names like Lofton, Ventura, Knoblauch, Pujols, Pedroia, etc.

 

My point is, Mookie is a stud, and will be for a long time. I don't know, maybe in today's baseball of K's and HRs he's just undervalued by some.

 

He was like this throughout the minors, starting as a 19 year old.  174 walks and 137 K's in 299 MILB games.   That's 94/74 over a 162 game season.    1.27 BB/K.   This is Mookie

Edited by rich22
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Regarding "Mookie Mondays"     It may only apply when he is slumping, like Monday is the only day he goes off, or there is no such thing a day before a holliday?   Not sure, it was a thing 2 AND 3 years ago, and early last year.   Not so much in the 2nd half, last year

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1 hour ago, YuSlyDog said:

How about the BB/K improvement Mookie has shown so far? Last year he was at 0.61, this year 1.30. This is an elite rate for someone his age - filter by guys 25 and under over the last 25 years you're looking at names like Lofton, Ventura, Knoblauch, Pujols, Pedroia, etc.

 

My point is, Mookie is a stud, and will be for a long time. I don't know, maybe in today's baseball of K's and HRs he's just undervalued by some.

 

I made this point to absknicks. He ignored it and chose to point out that a slightly under-800 OPS in an early, early part of the a** season was more relevant.  

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48 minutes ago, markygunit said:

 

I made this point to absknicks. He ignored it and chose to point out that a slightly under-800 OPS in an early, early part of the a** season was more relevant.  

 

You claimed he had been "awesome already" in that discussion. I pointed out his OPS was under .800, so no, he had not been "awesome already" at the point in time we had that conversation. Why do you continue to take things way out of context? Is it a reading comprehension issue or something you do deliberately to try and demean/discredit other posters who you don't see eye to eye with?  I see you're new here, I hope you take a step back and rethink your posting style and what you're adding to these forums if you're going to stick around. Not trying to be condescending, but damn man, be better.

Edited by absknicks
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19 hours ago, rich22 said:

Mookie 2016 v. 2017 comparison as of July 2nd

 

 

2016:    17 HR, 55 RBI, .296 AVG, .855 OPS, 13 SB.   Sox played 80 Games

2017:    15 HR, 51 RBI, .286 AVG, .874 OPS, 15 SB     Sox played 82 games

 

2016 after 82 games:  18 HR, 57 RBI, .296 AVG, .858 OPS, 13 SB

 

Pretty similar.    

 

He is what we thought he would be.   No better, no worse.   

 

I wouldn't say that as a lot of people expected him to be better as his 2nd half last year was great and how young he is.

 

I think that's where a lot of the mindless complaining got out of hand... OMG THIS GUY ISN'T A TOP 3 PLAYER BUT I DRAFTED HIM IN THE TOP 5!!!!  Dude's been consistent and far from a bust.  Wait until he goes off again in the 2nd half.

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On 7/3/2017 at 10:43 AM, 6Kill said:

 

Indisputable? @absknicks- I have the utmost respect for Dave Cameron and I'm sure he did say something similar to what you're saying he said in a FG chat.  Yes he is at 14.6% IFFB this year, slightly up from his 12.3% last year. But pull up his Fangraphs page and look at his IFFB% and corresponding BABIPs for EVERY year. 

                  IFFB% / BABIP

2012 (A-)      18 / .298

2013 (A)      14.5 / .322

2013 (A+)   19.5 / .346

2014 (AA)   16.3 / .366

2014 (AAA) 19.7 / .380

2014 (MLB) 11.5 / .327

2015 (MLB) 10.5 / .310

2016 (MLB) 12.3 / .322

2017 (MLB) 14.6 / .276

 

Now tell me his BABIP is so low because of an increase in his IFFB%....

 

There is no evidence to support your opinion

 

 

 

BABIP and pop ups do have a correlation..

 

However I do NOT trust MILB IFFB rates. They seem to all be uniformly out of wack from whenever I do research on prospects.

Edited by Slatykamora
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Minors per stat corner

12(A-) 4.8

13(A) 4.3

13(A+) 8.9

14(AA) 6.1

14(AAA) 7.3

 

Pop up rate in majors per stat corner

14  6.3

15 7.8

16  9.5

17 12.9 (league average 7.1)

 

By actual pop ups/IF per Batted ball. Its been the highest ever

 

While the fangraphs: Infield Fly Ball Percentage (IFFB%) = Infield Fly Balls / Fly Balls

 

Which is a different calculation and I don't find it as predicative of BABIP

 

SO yes. By the actual pop up per batted ball measure. Its Mookies highest rate of pop up in his entire career that includes minors

Edited by Slatykamora
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On 7/3/2017 at 7:39 PM, absknicks said:

 

You claimed he had been "awesome already" in that discussion. I pointed out his OPS was under .800, so no, he had not been "awesome already" at the point in time we had that conversation. Why do you continue to take things way out of context? Is it a reading comprehension issue or something you do deliberately to try and demean/discredit other posters who you don't see eye to eye with?  I see you're new here, I hope you take a step back and rethink your posting style and what you're adding to these forums if you're going to stick around. Not trying to be condescending, but damn man, be better.

 

I'm assuming a mod deleted the post about the pot calling the kettle black in reference to you, so I'll bite, but I'll keep this civil and just state the facts.    

 

I've said multiple times in my posts that he's been "awesome already" and detailed exactly why.  In fact, I even apologized to you, and then wrote a long-winded post about why you were being over dramatic about his "struggles".

 

At the time of the discussion, I stated that "yes, he has been awesome already". Why? I'll state again: because he's (and was at the time) on pace for the things he controls (25-25) and that also a correction is in order based on his advanced stats.  

 

What was your argument?  His current ranking and his at-the-moment under-.800 OPS.  Again, I stated why this was such a poor stat to reference.  (Hint: It wa so darn early in the season)

 

Additionally, for someone with so many posts and seemingly a "wealth" of fantasy baseball knowledge, who would label this guy a bust (at a 25-25 pace, to boot) or even a letdown at such an early point in the season?  That reeks of impatience and lack of understanding that a baseball season is ridiculously long. 

 

And I think that's what everyone's point was.  You were complaining about a guy who was on pace for 25-25 and all the peripherals showed that he was even possibly unlucky.  Which a couple weeks later, what do we find? Dude is raking.     

 

We're not (at least I'm not) saying to blindly follow a name guy and chastising you for complaining.  No, there are plenty of guys for that (see Trevor Story, Manny Machado, etc.). We're telling you to read between the lines.

 

But when the board tries to explain to you over and over again: look, he's been great (in what world is a 25-25 pace not great?), and his other stats were suppressed due to bad luck, AND THEN A WEEK LATER the predictions are coming to fruition...you provide no mea culpa and say I'm the one with the reading comprehension?  How about a simple, "hey guys, you were right, I might've jumped the gun a little early on him."

 

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I never labeled him a bust. What is wrong with you? 

 

And you have a couple of people who agree with you. I don't think that amounts to enough support to invoke the "whole board." Again, you seem either confused about what I've said or you're deliberately misrepresenting it. If you're just confused or not remembering correctly I'd recommend going back and reading my actual posts rather than stating stuff that simply isn't true.

 

And btw I've said multiple times in this thread that I expected him to turn it around but there's a difference between production and projection. I commented on his lack of production at multiple points in the season, I wasn't commenting on what he would do ROS (and when I did, I was optimistic about it). Peripherals are used to project, they do not equate to production. Unless you're in a league that has certain peripherals as categories. 

 

 

Edited by absknicks
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12 hours ago, Slatykamora said:

Minors per stat corner

12(A-) 4.8

13(A) 4.3

13(A+) 8.9

14(AA) 6.1

14(AAA) 7.3

 

Pop up rate in majors per stat corner

14  6.3

15 7.8

16  9.5

17 12.9 (league average 7.1)

 

By actual pop ups/IF per Batted ball. Its been the highest ever

 

While the fangraphs: Infield Fly Ball Percentage (IFFB%) = Infield Fly Balls / Fly Balls

 

Which is a different calculation and I don't find it as predicative of BABIP

 

SO yes. By the actual pop up per batted ball measure. Its Mookies highest rate of pop up in his entire career that includes minors

 

Thanks. 

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9 minutes ago, absknicks said:

I never labeled him a bust. What is wrong with you? 

 

And you have a couple of people who agree with you. I don't think that amounts to enough support to invoke the "whole board." Again, you seem either confused about what I've said or you're deliberately misrepresenting it. If you're just confused or not remembering correctly I'd recommend going back and reading my actual posts rather than stating stuff that simply isn't true.

 

And btw I've said multiple times in this thread that I expected him to turn it around but there's a difference between production and projection. I commented on his lack of production at multiple points in the season, I wasn't commenting on what he would do ROS (and when I did, I was optimistic about it). Peripherals are used to project, they do not equate to production. Unless you're in a league that has certain peripherals as categories. 

 

 

 

I'll stop here because it's difficult reasoning with you.  But I have reading comprehension problems...?

 

My full sentence: "Additionally, for someone with so many posts and seemingly a "wealth" of fantasy baseball knowledge, who would label this guy a bust (at a 25-25 pace, to boot) or even a letdown at such an early point in the season?" 

 

From an old post of your's: ..."I'm sure those in keeper formats and points leagues are happy, but for the rest of us he's been a bit of a letdown."

 

 

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3 minutes ago, markygunit said:

 

I'll stop here because it's difficult reasoning with you.  But I have reading comprehension problems...?

 

My full sentence: "Additionally, for someone with so many posts and seemingly a "wealth" of fantasy baseball knowledge, who would label this guy a bust (at a 25-25 pace, to boot) or even a letdown at such an early point in the season?" 

 

From an old post of your's: ..."I'm sure those in keeper formats and points leagues are happy, but for the rest of us he's been a bit of a letdown."

 

 

 

A bit of a letdown is a lot different than labeling him a bust

 

He was ranked in the 40s or 50s of 5x5 at the time and his OPS was hovering around .800. For a guy who went #2 overall, that's the textbook definition of a bit of a letdown to me. Sorry if you don't see it that way, but I'm guessing plenty do. 

 

I agree that we should stop here, though. This isn't going anywhere. 

 

Edited by absknicks
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