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T.Y. Hilton 2017 Season Outlook


FlashGordon401
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Great year last season with career highs in receptions and receiving yards. 

Probably going to be an early- to mid-2nd rounder in fantasy drafts. 

You guys think he'll be able to match his stats from last season or will a healthy Moncrief put a dent in his fantasy value?

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3 hours ago, FlashGordon401 said:

Great year last season with career highs in receptions and receiving yards. 

Probably going to be an early- to mid-2nd rounder in fantasy drafts. 

You guys think he'll be able to match his stats from last season or will a healthy Moncrief put a dent in his fantasy value?

 

Hilton's rate stats should remain steady but I'd expect Moncrief to cut into his targets.

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18 minutes ago, 96mnc said:

 

Hilton's rate stats should remain steady but I'd expect Moncrief to cut into his targets.

Any takeaways from the time Moncrief spent on the field with him this year? I don't know if he was ever fully healthy, but when he was playing it didn't seem to hurt TYs value too much.

 

Moncrief will be the preferred red zone read, but Hilton has never been a big TD scorer anyway, that's not his game. He still saw a good amount of targets and piled up the yardage totals, with the score every few games as the cherry on top.

 

I think people are high on Crief as a breakout, and probably rightfully so if his hammy isn't a issue again, but the Luck-Hilton chemistry is undeniable and in that pass heavy attack Hilton will have the most to benefit from IMO. He's still Lucks guy and all he does is zip around the field, get open, and catch passes. He's on my radar in the second after OBJ, AB, Evans, Julio, and Green. Him, Jordy, and Dez start that next tier I think.

Edited by Ffguy0087
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15 minutes ago, Ffguy0087 said:

Any takeaways from the time Moncrief spent on the field with him this year? I don't know if he was ever fully healthy, but when he was playing it didn't seem to hurt TYs value too much.

 

Moncrief will be the preferred red zone read, but Hilton has never been a big TD scorer anyway, that's not his game. He still saw a good amount of targets and piled up the yardage totals, with the score every few games as the cherry on top.

 

I think people are high on Crief as a breakout, and probably rightfully so if his hammy isn't a issue again, but the Luck-Hilton chemistry is undeniable and in that pass heavy attack Hilton will have the most to benefit from IMO. He's still Lucks guy and all he does is zip around the field, get open, and catch passes. He's on my radar in the second after OBJ, AB, Evans, Julio, and Green. Him, Jordy, and Dez start that next tier I think.

 

Really was kind of a wasted year for Moncrief with the multiple injuries.  At some point I'll look at Hilton target share with Moncrief in the field vs without.  But off the top of my head I know he wasn't quite as productive with vs without from tracking it for DFS.

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(standard league) 

 

I've loved Hilton the last two years at where he's been valued but I'm assuming this year he won't be slipping out of the second round. If I have a mid to late round pick I wouldn't mind a Evans/Green into Ty WR/WR draft but I'd feel a little insecure if my #1 WR isn't featured in the RZ. 

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36 minutes ago, 96mnc said:

 

Really was kind of a wasted year for Moncrief with the multiple injuries.  At some point I'll look at Hilton target share with Moncrief in the field vs without.  But off the top of my head I know he wasn't quite as productive with vs without from tracking it for DFS.

Yea the consistent 10+ targets he was seeing with Crief out dipped down a bit to the 6-8 range with the odd 9+ game here or there looking back at his game logs.

 

He's still the chain mover in the passing game and he can get you close to 10 points standard any week without finding paydirt, with the signature 120-150 yard games a few times a year. He should at the very least be a really solid floor guy with limited upside compared to the target hog/TD scoring WRs.

 

Excellent WR2 if you were to go WR-WR, and a good enough WR1 if you were to go RB-WR.

 

I'm a big Luck fan tho and still think that upside that a lot of peple talk about is fairly untapped. I think another 1400/6 season is in the cards which puts him at about 11 pts per game standard, which puts him at that lower WR1 level.

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  • 1 month later...

Hopefully the run game will be effective which should open things up in the passing game. And a little o-line help for Luck wouldn't be a bad thing either ;)
I'd grab Hilton at the back end of the 2nd round, early 3rd for sure.

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1 minute ago, elite said:

Hopefully the run game will be effective which should open things up in the passing game. And a little o-line help for Luck wouldn't be a bad thing either ;)
I'd grab Hilton at the back end of the 2nd round, early 3rd for sure.

No way Hilton lasts til the third after last year.

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  • 3 months later...

7. T.Y. Hilton, IND
2017 Projection: 88 receptions / 1400 yards / 7 touchdowns (270 points)
Outlook: One of the most quietly consistent fantasy wide receivers returns in his prime to an offense that does a lot of damage through the air. Andrew Luck isn't afraid to let it fly, and the sixth year of this connection should be yet another explosive display of offense. Once thought of as a one-trick pony, Hilton is truly a threat on every route he runs, and I expect him to lead the NFL in receiving yards. One of the best players in the NFL, quietly. Draft with confidence.

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  • 2 weeks later...

Luck has yet to throw a ball, there is no significant positive news about his recovery. So I am downgrading Hilton to wr9 or 10 until I see Luck tossing the ball around in camp like his arm is bionic. Also I'm moving Luck to QB 7. 

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I'm not high on Moncrief as a fantasy prospect, and I don't see him as having any exceptional talent. He is the 2nd in line, so of course he'll cut into TY's solidity of targets, assuming Luck is back and throwing at 90% strength/ capacity. I expect Moncrief will have an ok year and be let go when his contract expires (this year), as long as some other Colts receiver demonstrates rapport / reliable hands (i.e. other than TY and Doyle). It's just I've seen too many missed opportunities from Moncrief, I don't see him as a good match for this offense. (If anyone disagrees, shout out, I'm open to learning---but I watch the Colts and have yet to see any spark.) Now, if Devante Parker ended up on the Colts, whoa...

 

Not a far stretch to say Moncrief will cut into TY's targets more in the first half of the season, less in the second half when Moncrief's disappointment has Luck more selective with his targets. My two cents.

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On 2/17/2017 at 0:36 PM, 96mnc said:

 

Hilton's rate stats should remain steady but I'd expect Moncrief to cut into his targets.

 

Hilton averaged 97 yards per game when Moncrief played.  91 yards per game when he didn't.

 

Didn't look at targets, and maybe that was a function of other things, but I was really surprised to find this.

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Makes we wonder if Luck does 1 game 1 series preseason and is "probable" for wk1 how far does TY drop?  

Didnt the Cowboys last few years try to protect Romo from injury and reinjury  and limit him during preseason?

 

Dez owners were always hurt by  his inuries

Edited by dashoe
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On 7/10/2017 at 10:37 AM, Lord_Varys said:

 

Hilton averaged 97 yards per game when Moncrief played.  91 yards per game when he didn't.

 

Didn't look at targets, and maybe that was a function of other things, but I was really surprised to find this.

 

I wouldn't actually read into that. TY also had his 3 of his top 4 biggest games when Moncrief was out, 174, 173, 134. Small sample size shouldn't mean much going either way. 

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35 minutes ago, boltup15 said:

 

I wouldn't actually read into that. TY also had his 3 of his top 4 biggest games when Moncrief was out, 174, 173, 134. Small sample size shouldn't mean much going either way. 

 

It shows further evidence TY is always the guy regardless of Moncreif. 

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  • 2 weeks later...

TY Hilton had 156 targets last season:

 

83 of them came in the 9 games that Moncrief played in. 9.22 targets per game (148 over full season)

 

72 of them came in the 7 games in which Moncrief missed. 10.29 targets per game (164 over full season)

 

Some other ones I checked:

 

TY Hilton had 91 receptions last year:

 

47 of them came in the 9 games that Moncrief played in. 5.22 catches per game (83.52 over 16 games)

 

44 of them came in the 7 games that Moncrief did not play in. 6.29 catches per game (100.64 over 16 games)

 

TY Hilton had 1,448 receiving yards last season:

 

I count 739 of them coming in the 9 games that Moncrief played in. 82.11 yards per game (1,314 yards over 16 games)

 

And 709 yards in the 7 games that Moncrief did not play in. 101.29 yards per game (1,621 yards over 16 games)

 

TY Hilton had 6 TD's last year:

 

2 of them came in the 9 games in which Moncrief played in. 

 

4 of them came in the 7 games in which Moncrief did not play in.

 

NFL savant and Pro Football Reference gives two separate RZ targets. Using Pro Football Reference (for some reason, they give 13 RZ targets to Hilton on the sortable chart, but list 14 total plays on Hilton's page): 

 

TY Hilton had 14 (?) RZ targets last year:

 

7 came in the 9 games in which Moncrief played in.

 

7 came in the 7 games Moncrief did not play in.

 

And here are TY Hilton's target share percentages by week in games Moncrief did play in: 

 

Week 1 vs DET: 25.53% share of IND targets

 

Week 2 vs DEN: 27.50% 

 

Week 8 vs KC: 17.14%

 

Week 9 vs GB: 22.22%

 

Week 11 vs TEN: 32.14%

 

Week 12 vs PIT: 13.89%

 

Week 13 vs NYJ: 35.71%

 

Week 14 vs HOU: 28.89%

 

Week 16 vs OAK: 31.03%

 

Target share in games Moncrief did not play in: 

 

Week 3 vs SD: 29.73%

 

Week 4 vs JAX: 23.81%

 

Week 5 vs CHI: 28.21%

 

Week 6 vs HOU: 28.13%

 

Week 7 vs TEN: 30.77%

 

Week 15 vs MIN: 25%

 

Week 17 vs JAX: 30%

 

I believe Hilton exited early in the PIT game. Moncrief exited early in the DEN game. Also seems like Moncrief left the Week 14 game vs HOU in the 4th quarter and Week 16 game vs OAK in the 4th quarter as well.

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Hilton's a high floor guy, no doubt. If Luck's in, he'll obviously score. And even if Scott Tolzien, Hasselbeck, Curtis Painter, whoever, is forced to play, Hilton will be the one guy still scoring. He's the #1 WR in an offense inevitably playing 3 quarters of catchup mode a week - it's the Allen Hurns/Kenny Britt path to success.

 

I guess it depends where his ADP is at. In the late second, I'd probably go with a guy like Cooper or Bryant and bet on their ceiling. I might consider him in the third.

Edited by beware d-ware
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