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T.Y. Hilton 2017 Season Outlook


FlashGordon401
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3 hours ago, ponchsox said:

I would have taken every one of those players over T.Y.

 

If Luck misses only 2 or 3 games then TY is a great value late 2nd.  You get a flex WR for the first few games then you get a locked in WR1 for the rest of the year.  Give me that over the risk of Hopkins repeating last year, Allen getting hurt again, Fournette playing on a 3 win team, and DT's low ceiling.

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In 2015 Hilton played in 9 games without Luck on the field.

In those 9 games he averaged:

7.6 targets, 4.2 catches, 64 yards, .2 TDs, and 11.9 fantasy points per game.

Extrapolated to 16 games:

122 targets, 67 catches, 1,024 yards, 3.5 TDs, 191 fantasy points.

 

That would be 31st overall, 42nd in PPG.

 

That's assuming a full 16 games.

 

Let's say Luck misses 4 games.

4 w/Backup: 31/17/256/1/48

12 w/Luck: 107/65/1047/5/199 (2014 and 2016 averaged/16*12)

 

Total: 138 Targets, 82 catches, 1,303 Yards, 6 TD, 247 Fantasy Points, 8th overall last year.

 

I'm not sure Luck misses a full 4 games, but there's definitely a chance he comes back gimpy, and struggles because of it.

I still have Hilton ranked 10th, in a tier with him and Hopkins (11th), but could go either way.

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Excellent analysis. A couple points... I do not expect Luck to come back gimpy. The Colts won't send him out there or will Luck expose himself to reinjury. Also important to note that Luck played all of 2016 compromised with a partially torn labrum suffered back in 2015. Its hard to believe that the version of Luck we see once he's back on the field isn't better than what we saw last year.

 

There is early risk with Hilton given that we don't know when Luck is back, but in H2H leagues, you're likely looking at a surefire WR1 for the stretch and playoff run. I personally love him around the 2/3 turn in ppr leagues.

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It's kind of a shame that the Rams are also inept on offense, as it limits the potential for garbage time points in a blowout. I think both teams will adhere to conservative game plans this week. Maybe better "luck" facing the Cardinals next week. 

 

If you drafted Hilton, as I did, you probably need to start him. Let's hope Luck is back sooner than later. 

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8 hours ago, PlayTheWaivers said:

Great value, but I would bench him. He's been awful without Luck as well as the entire colts offense is as well.

 

Not that that is rocket science. But Hilton is an easy bench if you have another wr2 or rb2.

 

Agreed. I wasn't necessarily targeting him in my draft but got him at a great value, I think he will be a stud again once Luck returns, but without him I'm benching him this week for wr/rb2 guys with good matchups. Hoping Luck is back soon. 

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Anyone considering starting Hilton? He's such a talented player but hard to ignore some of the stats posted earlier in this thread. Any chance Tolzien and Hilton have built up some chemistry in training camp? I have a hard time benching him over rb2/wr3 types for my flex and the experts still seem bullish on him for some reason.

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1 hour ago, cohenstantinople said:

 

No

 

 

None

 

You know what? I was going to bench TY for week 1, but after reading stuff like this, I'm putting him back in my starting lineup.

 

Everything that everyone says is logical, but it's also universal, which is exactly when the fantasy gods intervene. Because pretty much everyone in the universe is saying the same thing, that you should bench TY despite his talent. And that's the precisely the moment when you've gotta be a contrarian.

 

For example, the fantasy gods were surely amused by all the people who bet that Alex Smith would throw for 4 TDs while Tom Brady would throw for ZERO.

 

This is why we play the game. :)

Edited by bsong71
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57 minutes ago, bsong71 said:

 

You know what? I was going to bench TY for week 1, but after reading stuff like this, I'm putting him back in my starting lineup.

 

Everything that everyone says is logical, but it's also universal, which is exactly when the fantasy gods intervene. Because pretty much everyone in the universe is saying the same thing, that you should bench TY despite his talent. And that's the precisely the moment when you've gotta be a contrarian.

 

For example, the fantasy gods were surely amused by all the people who bet that Alex Smith would throw for 4 TDs while Tom Brady would throw for ZERO.

 

This is why we play the game. :)

gambler's fallacy...

 

good luck!

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1 hour ago, NyjersInParis said:

I'm forced to start him. My other wr are Allen and arob.  I don't like their matchups this week

 

Rams aren't exactly the greatest matchup either defensively speaking. Mind you Tolzein has thrown for a whooping two touchdowns and seven interceptions his entire illustrious career.  As a fellow Hilton owner, I can only say that we hope for the best and play the waiting game until Luck comes back. 

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CBS Sports' Jason La Canfora reports Andrew Luck (shoulder) is likely to miss "several more weeks."

The good news is Luck is nearing the end of a strength-building program for his surgically repaired shoulder, and can "finally see the light at the end of the tunnel," per La Canfora. Unfortunately, Luck hasn't even resumed throwing yet and the Colts don't even have a timetable for Luck to resume practicing, although it's expected "sooner rather than later." Either way, fantasy owners who drafted Luck can't expect to have him for perhaps upwards of a month, if not more. All Colts skill-position players around him will be severely adversely affected in weekly box scores.

 

 

So the rumors that Luck had already started a throwing program were wrong? Ugh. 

Edited by Cheese Sandwich
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